I agree, there are some 20 sites on predictions if we google it. Each site publishes some random dates and big movements just to get more eye-balls. There is no logic or argument for their conclucsions (probably they write month in chits and draw one of them :-) ). I tried it few months back and believe me most of them are trash.
Originally Posted by leo07
Leo; EB2I; PD: 11/01/2008; NSC; MD: 01/03/2012; RD: 01/04/2012; ND: 1/12/2012; FP Scheduled: 02/22; EAD/AP: 02/22; CPO email: 03/09/2012; GC 3/15/2012; what next???? India Trip????
i apologize if i have hurted you guys posting the link. Like you all even i wanted to see some movements and get my GC. after reading the information from the above site . i was very happy and wanted a feeling from you guys. Again iam really sorry.
the numbers look good when you compare them to may & june approvals/bulletin.
No need to apologize. You thought it's meaningful in your judgement, you posted. That's what Q said earlier. If you feel it might be helpful in your judgement, no one is stopping you.
We all learn and fine tune our judgements as time passes. Criticism if any by fellow members should be taken in that respect!
Off late, this year, I have myself seen a surge in prediction and immigration related websites. Seems "elements" have realized there is money to be made from this, and are hence doing it.
Guys, it's time. Last week of July. Let the sources awaken, let more reports, data sharing be done by USCIS, DOS, NIU (chinese organization), so that we calibrate further. As of now, it's anyone's guess.
An interesting observation about EB2I. YTD there are 885 approvals. However trackitt has ~900 pending EB2I w PD prior to 30th March 2007. Does it mean 50% applications prior to Mar 30, 2007 are yet to be processed? Or does it show how people are quite late in updating their trackitt data?
I think its a bit of both. Just a data point to consider. Don't be alarmed. Just one of those things that should keep our enthusiasm for over-optimism in check!
p.s. - The cases after 7th march are not yet current. However their proportion in the pending cases mentioned above is much less. The pending consist of cases that are current but somehow not yet approved or updated on trackitt.
Last edited by qesehmk; 07-27-2011 at 12:10 PM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I do think the cause of 50% pending EB2I in trackitt is a combination of both the factors that Q mentioned but I feel that many people don't update their case after approval. Many of the trackitt approvals that we see are cases that gets added after they have gotten their I485 approved. A substantial number of people don't even add their case. To know the real estimate of cases that are current but not yet approved, I guess we have to wait for the pending inventory in the Fall quarter.
No need for apologies... and I certainly wasn't hurtif it helps any, most of those guys copy the calculations, information including the acronyms from this site
Best of Luck!
Q bhai...thoda apna source ko phone gumao yaar please...
Apart from one obvious observation, that there might be indeed some genuine slowdown, I have also noticed amount of people getting Medical RFE is higher as we move into 2007. Seems like the 2007 year 485 pre-adjudication was not as clean a job as earlier years.
About the slowdown if any, it might also be because of huge amount of workload due to big movement in the bulletin which took us to March 8th 2007, and also it might mean, the visa number tokens being dried up a bit, or anticipation that future movements will not be huge and USCIS can take its time processing the one's they are having. And of course, trackitt just not being accurate enough.
I think trackitt update is little late or may be we don't ever see their cases getting updated,
People up to mar5,2007 PD got approved and I heard several cases from every month Oct-mar getting approvals
I agree with this and one reason is that during July-Aug'07, people were allowed to submit I485 application without the medical details. I am also in that category and I submitted my I485 but couldn't finish the medical tests within time; else I would have missed the deadline. I asked about the status of my application and got a reply from NSC saying that pre-adjudication has been completed. But, I know that I have incomplete medical test reports and will get a RFE when my PD is current and my case is ready for adjudication.
Here are some observations about Trackitt.
- Historically ~ 20% people do not update their profiles, I had done this research long back based on 2004 and 2003 data. So those cases that are not un-updated for EB2-I could really be unapproved or un-updated.
- On most forums people seem to be quite satisfied with the approvals, even those who are complaining are getting them now, so looks like the percentage of those who do not update their profiles has gone up steeply. If there are no unlucky member complaints then we should assume all is well.
- July had a very slow start, in any other month most people would have gotten approved far sooner, this time due to sheer numbers looks like things are slow. However based on the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them.
- Besides medical RFE's looks like EVL RFE counts have also gone up steeply, this may be due to the long time that has elapsed from Jul 2007.
- EB2 ROW approvals are still at 90% level from last year, however if these are factored up we may actually see lower SOFAD from EB2 ROW.
- Another interesting trend is that the number of cases in Trackitt for EB2 India for those current by the Jul bulletin is far lower in fact close to 50% that the previous year’s corresponding period.
- There are hardly EB1 cases on Trackitt showing up these days, only the next inventory can show the true picture if the EB1 backlog is really coming down.
- Let’s hope for the best in the September bulletin, the most conservative SOFAD projection is EB1 - 12K, EB2 ROW - 7K, EB5 - 7.5K, Regular Cap 5.5K ~ 32K. If we look at the actual SOFAD that has been applied we may just be 2-3K short of this mark. I believe EB1 approvals especially this month hold the key; EB2 ROW trend has been quite consistent. In reality I hope there is more SOFAD than the conservative projection, good luck to everyone.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-27-2011 at 02:14 PM.
Teddy,
Not sure you got a chance to look at Post 5016, I don't think there is increase in EB1 demand for Q3 when compared to Q1&Q2.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Thanks TeddyK. You are stuck to your guns
Can you elaborate this?
"However based on n the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them"
Veni, thanks I just went through that post again. The more significant component of EB1 for now is the existing backlog rather than the new filings. The huge acceleration in clearing I140's will give a big impetus to EB1 cases, however as of now there seems to be no evidence of that atleast on Trackitt. Postings or otherwise are only suggesting delays in processing, I heard from one of my friends he has applied in EB1C (He has a very long and painful immigration journey almost 10 years now, now he works as Director in the company famous for EB1C filing) that EB1 approvals even for concurrently filed cases are taking 8 months. So if the agencies are unable to clear their targeted cases for EB1 in Aug then we may see slightly higher SOFAD in September. Current filing rates will be significant for the coming year.
What I meant to say is that when DOS published the Aug bulletin demand data they seem to have subtracted 11.5K from that meaning that USCIS may have informed that that they have been able to attach a cap number or identify the cases exactly. So sooner or later these cases will be approved so we don't really need to worry about the Trackitt rates for this time period.Thanks TeddyK. You are stuck to your guns
Can you elaborate this?
"However based on n the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them"
Unfortunately I feel that too much of SOFAD is really not left this projection matches with the lower range being given by other posters and Gurus. If you ask me my mind is with the lower range but heart is praying every moment for the best
Teddy,
As we can see from the DOL document there are about 15K PERM approvals (don't have the breakdown between IC/ROWMP) in April/May2011, which reflected in i140 receipts as-well. Agree there is acceleration in clearing i140 in May 2011, but we do not know what % of them are EB1/EB2ROWMP in-addition i140 data provided is completions which include both approvals & denials.
I think we need some more data points(Q3-PERM or 140 approval/denial % or july EB inventory) to get a better picture!
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Teddy
Is this a possibility ?
Let's assume that DOS has 19k visas available for Aug - Sep , they hold on date movement in Aug because if they allocate 9k visas to EB2 IC they will have 10k left for EB1 for Aug - Sep. and if demand in Aug + Sep is more than 10k then they are forced to setup cutoff date to EB1 or EB2 row which can create problem for DOS.
But they only allocated few thousands in Aug and now in Sep they will allocate more to EB2 IC and move date into Mid 2008 with less visas allocated to EB1 still keep them "C" and towards middle of month just stop approving EB1 cases if they run out of visas. Again in 15 days which is start of new month / year they can resume EB1 approval.
This will serve dual intent. Building pipeline and avoiding cutoff date for EB1 & 2 ROW. Only problem is EB1 and 2 ROW will get their gc 15 days delayed.
Nishant,
What you said about medical RFE is right. One of my friends' PD became current in last bulletin and he had missed the boat in 2007 as he was travelling. I had called him up to ask about the process (hope lives on)after the date becomes current and he said that there was significant difference between medical related forms and requirements last time and what he had to go thru this time. May be they are applying the newer requirements now leading to RFEs.
Veni I agree with you. Somehow we need to get more statistics on denials, because theoretically if there is a slow down due to the Kazarian memo the rates may just catch up sometime in that case the contributor will be the backlog as opposed to recent filings.
1. You are correct about the Aug bulletin that there may have been extremely guarded caution in moving EB2 I/C slowly as according to the rules they cannot do spillover if they have EB2 ROW and EB1 cases. In essence as you say EB2 ROW and EB1 just get delayed by a few weeks to a month. The real key is what exactly is happening in Aug and the 10 days leading to the bulletin in September, if they find that they do not have enough EB2 ROW and EB1 cases then there is a possibilility (Probability close to 5%) that all preadjudicated numbers are exhausted. I see that EB2 ROW cases are coming at the usual rate while EB1's seem to have almost disappeared on Trackitt. Another reason for BTM in September was outlined by Spec earlier is that if it does not happen in September we might have to wait till as late as May 2012 to happen. Any talk of BTM is really speculative and discretionary we can only hope for the best. IMHO there seems to be only 3-4K SOFAD left I hope there is more its good for all of us, 3-4K additional (Total 7-8K in Sep) can be really significant to catalyze BTM.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-27-2011 at 05:01 PM.
-->Not to mention that 1 in 5 of my friends who are in GC process never heard of trackit and wouldn't care either
I tend to agree.. even though I had visited trackitt a couple of times in the past few years, I never bothered to add my case there until recently.-->Not to mention that 1 in 5 of my friends who are in GC process never heard of trackit and wouldn't care either
http://translate.google.com/translat...3a45b4548a4891
looks like CO is saying EB3 I moved more than EB3 C becos of less usage of I in family based visas. Not sure if the translation is correct. We don't get any Family to Employment spillover right in the middle of fiscal year?
Last edited by neospeed; 07-27-2011 at 07:51 PM.
Thanks for clarification. This part has always been an enigma for me, as to when CIS actually reserves/assigns a number for a particular case. My understanding was that as soon as they determine that a particular case is Documentarily qualified or Pre-Adjudicated and if the dates are current+numbers available, they assign the visa number to application.
What I meant to say is that when DOS published the Aug bulletin demand data they seem to have subtracted 11.5K from that meaning that USCIS may have informed that that they have been able to attach a cap number or identify the cases exactly. So sooner or later these cases will be approved so we don't really need to worry about the Trackitt rates for this time period.
Unfortunately I feel that too much of SOFAD is really not left this projection matches with the lower range being given by other posters and Gurus. If you ask me my mind is with the lower range but heart is praying every moment for the best
neospeed,
Whilst not impossible, it seems a little implausible.
The only Country we know this happens for is South Korea, who use less than 2k FB visas a year.
India in contrast is in the top 6 of FB users of visas and hit the 7% limit last year.
In addition, since there is no actual transfer of visa numbers from FB to EB, EB3-I could only receive more than 2.8k visas at the expense of those given to EB3-ROW.
It somehow just doesn't add up, but the one month forward movement in the August VB for EB3-I was certainly real.
I admit to being slightly confused at the moment.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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