EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Monica12]

just went for the movie " Zindagi na milegi dobara"
PS: USCIS people : my life is passing me by....PLEASE give me GC soon or I'm seriously going to Spain for scuba and sky diving

[haripathhi]

Well said kd!

A reading of about 40-50 pages of this thread may be useful or should I say is needed. Search terms like certified expired etc and you will get you answers. I understand that you are trying to satisfy your curiosity. So no offense taken at your questions. But the Gurus have been put through a wringer before they were able to put that data out.

DOL takes a snapshot of its database before publishing. If an application has been approved 6 months a ago then its appears as certified-expired, if less than 6 months then certified. Even then there are more nuances to it that's why this thread is over 200 pages long. DOL does not care what happens to the application and USCIS has nothing to do with this database.

Q, Spec, V, would it be possible to post a simple algorithm on how go about calculating PERM data. Every newbie wants to know how to do that themselves.

[Spectator]

I checked the data for Certified and Certified Expired too, but the data doesn't match.

Here is the data:
Financial Year Certified(China) Expired(China) Certified(India) Expired(India) Total
2008 1210 2118 7198 9371 19897
2009 1090 1022 6403 4984 13499
2010 1778 2274 14872 14058 32982

Also, why would the USCIS consider the Expired PERMs as they cannot be used again by the company for any other employee.

Thanks in advance.

I agree with your numbers.

So :

FY2008 China = 1,210+2,118 = 3,328
FY2008 India = 7,198+9,371 = 16,569

FY2009 China = 1,090+1,022 = 2,112
FY2009 India = 6,403+4,984 = 11,387

FY2010 China = 1,778+2,274 = 4,052
FY2010 India = 14,872+14,058 = 28,930

In the table in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI you can see these figures

CHINA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 186 ------- 8 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------------- 0 ------- 194
2006 ------- 3,053 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------- 3 ------------- 0 ----- 3,111
2007 ------- 3,607 --- 1,916 ----- 179 ----- 198 ------------- 5 ----- 5,905
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,365 --- 1,915 ----- 666 ----------- 188 ----- 4,134
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 2,169 ------------ 60 ----- 2,231
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,016 --------- 1,369 ----- 2,385
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----------- 493 ------- 493
Total ------ 6,846 --- 3,328 --- 2,112 --- 4,052 --------- 2,115 ---- 18,453


INDIA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 393 ------ 27 ------- 5 ------- 1 ------------- 0 ------- 426
2006 ------ 11,461 ----- 108 ------ 54 ------ 11 ------------- 1 ---- 11,635
2007 ------ 12,719 --- 8,335 ----- 962 --- 1,005 ------------ 43 ---- 23,064
2008 ----------- 0 --- 8,099 -- 10,358 --- 3,702 --------- 1,193 ---- 23,352
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 15,054 ----------- 940 ---- 16,002
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,157 -------- 11,849 ---- 21,006
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 3,804 ----- 3,804
Total ----- 24,573 -- 16,569 -- 11,387 -- 28,930 -------- 17,830 ---- 99,289

As has already been said, DOL automatically mark Certifications as Certified Expired after 180 days.

They do not check whether or not an I-140 has been submitted within 180 days or not and there does not appear to be any communication between DOL and USCIS about this.

There are numerous examples from people whose PERM shows as Certified Expired where they have an approved I-140 as a result of it.

[mesan123]

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...migration_bill

found this website in trackitt......dont know howmuch of it will work...may be thought GURU's can shed some light to it ....

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, V, would it be possible to post a simple algorithm on how go about calculating PERM data. Every newbie wants to know how to do that themselves.

kd,

The simple version is as follows:

Import Access file into Excel. If you are using an older version of Excel and the Access file has more than 64k records, you will have to set a filter on the import to bring the number below 64k. You can then import the rest of the records by excluding those from the first import when you import a second time. I eventually just upgraded to Excel 2010 because of the limit of 64k rows in Excel 2003. Having the data in more than one sheet makes things more complicated and leads to the risk of not importing all the data.

Add extra columns as necessary.

The one that is absolutely necessary to work with Priority Dates is the derived Received Date.

Assuming the Case Number is in A2 then the formula =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000)) gives the Received Date for that Case Number.

Depending on which version of Excel you are using, you may also need to derive the Calendar Month and Calendar Year of the Received Date in additional columns.

I then use a Pivot Table to analyze the data directly. Within the Pivot Table, I first group all Countries that are not China, India, Mexico or Philippines into ROW, so my result match the DOS groupings.

It is then just a case of dragging headings to the relevant areas. Simple ones would be a breakdown of cases by Case Status, or numbers by DOS Grouping. Since you can apply filters, it is very easy to look at a particular Country or groups such as IC or ROW-M-P.

If you haven't discovered Pivot Tables, I recommend them highly. They take a bit of getting used to initially , but there are some good web tutorials. Far better than sorting and counting rows, I assure you!

Some of the Pivot Table tools in Excel 2010 make additional groupings trivial, so I only have to add the Received Date to the original data.

You can make groups by Calendar or Fiscal Year for Received or Adjudication Date - whatever takes your fancy.

I have combined all the PERM data from FY2006 to date into a single large spreadsheet which is currently 121MB in size and has 429,867 rows to make reporting PD numbers over several FY a single step process.

If you have any questions, just ask.

[ssvp22]

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...migration_bill

found this website in trackitt......dont know howmuch of it will work...may be thought GURU's can shed some light to it ....

One can read the comments there and conclude what will happen to the bill. Kam khud nahi karna, poora din leadership ki baataein, aur blame immigrants ko karo.

[nishant2200]

One can read the comments there and conclude what will happen to the bill. Kam khud nahi karna, poora din leadership ki baataein, aur blame immigrants ko karo.

I still believe one should not lose heart. I am happy to see such persistent efforts. I am fairly confident that within next decade, something will be done.

[veni001]

kd,

The simple version is as follows:

Import Access file into Excel. If you are using an older version of Excel and the Access file has more than 64k records, you will have to set a filter on the import to bring the number below 64k. You can then import the rest of the records by excluding those from the first import when you import a second time. I eventually just upgraded to Excel 2010 because of the limit of 64k rows in Excel 2003. Having the data in more than one sheet makes things more complicated and leads to the risk of not importing all the data.

Add extra columns as necessary.

The one that is absolutely necessary to work with Priority Dates is the derived Received Date.

Assuming the Case Number is in A2 then the formula =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000)) gives the Received Date for that Case Number.

Depending on which version of Excel you are using, you may also need to derive the Calendar Month and Calendar Year of the Received Date in additional columns.

I then use a Pivot Table to analyze the data directly. Within the Pivot Table, I first group all Countries that are not China, India, Mexico or Philippines into ROW, so my result match the DOS groupings.

It is then just a case of dragging headings to the relevant areas. Simple ones would be a breakdown of cases by Case Status, or numbers by DOS Grouping. Since you can apply filters, it is very easy to look at a particular Country or groups such as IC or ROW-M-P.

If you haven't discovered Pivot Tables, I recommend them highly. They take a bit of getting used to initially , but there are some good web tutorials. Far better than sorting and counting rows, I assure you!

Some of the Pivot Table tools in Excel 2010 make additional groupings trivial, so I only have to add the Received Date to the original data.

You can make groups by Calendar or Fiscal Year for Received or Adjudication Date - whatever takes your fancy.

I have combined all the PERM data from FY2006 to date into a single large spreadsheet which is currently 121MB in size and has 429,867 rows to make reporting PD numbers over several FY a single step process.

If you have any questions, just ask.

Spec,
Good, i just copied this post to Facts and Data Section under PERM data and calculations for future newbies(readers) reference.

[Pdmar08]

U know u can do that here 2 right unless this place in Spain u get to do both in one go

just went for the movie " Zindagi na milegi dobara"
PS: USCIS people : my life is passing me by....PLEASE give me GC soon or I'm seriously going to Spain for scuba and sky diving

[vizcard]

U know u can do that here 2 right unless this place in Spain u get to do both in one go

Jump out of the plane over the sea, open your parachute at 500 feet ..... you'll do deep sea diving and sky diving in the same jump

On a more serious note, I'm getting less optimistic that Aug 2008 PD will be current in FY 2012. But who knows ...

[PlainSpeak]

I still believe one should not lose heart. I am happy to see such persistent efforts. I am fairly confident that within next decade, something will be done.

Next Decade Seriously !!!!!!!!!

[ssvp22]

Next Decade Seriously !!!!!!!!!

@nishant2200 you are planning really long term. I already lost my hair in the GC loop. Hope we dont loose hearts, lungs and few more parts before we get the GC.

[PlainSpeak]

@nishant2200 you are planning really long term. I already lost my hair in the GC loop. Hope we dont loose hearts, lungs and few more parts before we get the GC.

MAybe Nishant is ayoung dude (20-25 years of age) so next decade would make him 35. Yes i guess he can still wait till 35.

Me i guess i will get my GC when i have lost all my hair and my teeth and have above 65

CIS : Congratulations Heres your GC !!!!
Me : Please wait as it wil take time for me to stand up from my wheelchair and walk towards you to take my GC

[Monica12]

Jump out of the plane over the sea, open your parachute at 500 feet ..... you'll do deep sea diving and sky diving in the same jump

On a more serious note, I'm getting less optimistic that Aug 2008 PD will be current in FY 2012. But who knows ...

Pdmarch08, Vizcard...LOL! now you guys are starting to give me ideas....
On a side note, I will refrain myself from any kind of diving till the Sep VB comes out...

[indiaeb2]

Getting Current is all luck and no one can decide it ..i pray for all you to become current like July fisco.

[gc_usa]

I think demand data will be released on 8th and same day bulletin. If they want to open gate till Mid 2008 then.

[soggadu]

Pdmarch08, Vizcard...LOL! now you guys are starting to give me ideas....
On a side note, I will refrain myself from any kind of diving till the Sep VB comes out...

socho on a lighter note, there will be lot of people who want to dive once the sep bulletin is out...

book one for me...the one without oxygen tank... just direct behes ki ankh ...

[Monica12]

socho on a lighter note, there will be lot of people who want to dive once the sep bulletin is out...

book one for me...the one without oxygen tank... just direct behes ki ankh ...

Damn... I didn't think of that. Now, my diving plans are also based on Sep VB....
Soggadu...chal mil kaar diving karenge ....whether we will use oxygen tank or not , will depend on what comes out on Aug 8

[soggadu]

MAybe Nishant is ayoung dude (20-25 years of age) so next decade would make him 35. Yes i guess he can still wait till 35.

Me i guess i will get my GC when i have lost all my hair and my teeth and have above 65

...GC aneke baad kya karne ka iraada hein bhaiyooo...

CIS : Congratulations Heres your GC !!!!
Me : Please wait as it wil take time for me to stand up from my wheelchair and walk towards you to take my GC

chaddo ji...male karva leena ;-)

******************************

[soggadu]

Damn... I didn't think of that. Now, my diving plans are also based on Sep VB....
Soggadu...chal mil kaar diving karenge ....whether we will use oxygen tank or not , will depend on what comes out on Aug 8

aap ki GC ki supari nikal chuki hein ji... tension na loo...

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

Just came across this link, I am sure most of you would have seen this before. This seems to be a very accurate prediction based on the fact that it was done in Nov/2010. Also the remaining visa number 5-6k is in line with what we are expecting in SEP VB. Hope this will help.

http://www.immigration-information.c...ditions-12708/

[nishant2200]

Hi All,

Just came across this link, I am sure most of you would have seen this before. This seems to be a very accurate prediction based on the fact that it was done in Nov/2010. Also the remaining visa number 5-6k is in line with what we are expecting in SEP VB. Hope this will help.

http://www.immigration-information.c...ditions-12708/

Yes. Also Q updated trackitt based projections few days back, and they also seem to indicate similarly some movement similarly.

I think it's dependent on how many in the EB1 and EB2 ROW backlog are documentarily qualified as well as new incoming from them in last few months got straightforward qualified, and more than the actual numbers now, the trend in that which CO sees. We are at that mercy.

[nishant2200]

Here is my latest feelings on the movement. Of course with any new information coming in, it can change.

Dates would move 8 weeks to 15th June 2007, 4k movement.

Then in FY 2012, dates will move slowly, a week or two weeks, each bulletin, until it hits 15th August 2007. By this time, they will be in end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and CO/DOS will have a projection trend of expected SO, as well as accumulated demand for EB2 I/C and Porting so far till that point in time, then based on this, they will do the BTM. They may realize at this point, that they only need applications until 2007 year end, but still may move by a few more months, in 2008, to make inventory, as well as hold promise to the NVC notices. So far from internet extensive searching, I have never found a situation where they sent NVC notices and dates did not move in the coming year.

[dreamer]

Just came across this link, looks close enough from predictions wise
http://www.myprioritydate.com/

Didn't mean to promote the link or anything, just found it as interesting and sharing it. I was not that happy looking at my own priority date i.e., Sep 29, 2008, I hate to see May 2013 as expected date but can't do anything rather than just accepting the fact unless there is BTM

[natvyas]

Here is my latest feelings on the movement. Of course with any new information coming in, it can change.

Dates would move 8 weeks to 15th June 2007, 4k movement.

Then in FY 2012, dates will move slowly, a week or two weeks, each bulletin, until it hits 15th August 2007. By this time, they will be in end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and CO/DOS will have a projection trend of expected SO, as well as accumulated demand for EB2 I/C and Porting so far till that point in time, then based on this, they will do the BTM. They may realize at this point, that they only need applications until 2007 year end, but still may move by a few more months, in 2008, to make inventory, as well as hold promise to the NVC notices. So far from internet extensive searching, I have never found a situation where they sent NVC notices and dates did not move in the coming year.

Nishant

The authentic information we have on the NVC receipt, is from someone with a PD of June 08, right?

Regards
Nat