EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[angryclubs]

Hello, Q, Teddy, Spectator and others. Thank you for the diligent analysis.

My priority date is 1/29/2007-EB2, what are the chances that my date will be current this year.

Thank you,
MorningSun.

MS, As per initial calculations by Q, you would have had a almost 100% chance of becoming current between July-Sep 2011. However the newly published visa statistics pour cold water on the estimates and your chances of being current this year have fallen dramatically. I would think it stands at 50-50 for 2011 with a 100% shot in 2012.

Experts, please correct if you think I got it wrong.

[TeluguBidda]

MS, As per initial calculations by Q, you would have had a almost 100% chance of becoming current between July-Sep 2011. However the newly published visa statistics pour cold water on the estimates and your chances of being current this year have fallen dramatically. I would think it stands at 50-50 for 2011 with a 100% shot in 2012.

Experts, please correct if you think I got it wrong.

With the 6.5K spillover from FB visas non-existent for FY2011 + 4,000 porting cases + EB2 I-140 spike + greater # of EB-2 China in 2006, would be safe to assume that the total # of EB-2 India for 2011 would be around 10,000? This would be 50% of the 20,000 received in FY2010.

If the answer is Yes to above, EB-2 India should not cross Oct-2006, correct?

[qesehmk]

Friends... we created this dedicated website for our blog.

WELCOME HERE!! AND I LOOK FORWARD TO ENGAGE IN A MEANINGFUL DISCUSSION THAT WILL HELP ALL OF OUR VISITORS!!

[TexDBoy]

Thanks Q for all the effort. This blog is so informative and I hope/wish that you succeed in your mission for which you started this.

[admin]

Thanks TBoy :-)

Thanks Q for all the effort. This blog is so informative and I hope/wish that you succeed in your mission for which you started this.

[Spectator]

Q,

Congratulations on moving the forum so quickly.

Perhaps everyone who visits can do their bit to advertise the new location to people who might be interested.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends... we created this dedicated website for our blog.

WELCOME HERE!! AND I LOOK FORWARD TO ENGAGE IN A MEANINGFUL DISCUSSION THAT WILL HELP ALL OF OUR VISITORS!!

Congratulations Q, great to see qesehmk.org. Time for some great predictions and calculations now.

[admin]

Spec/Teddy

Thanks! The last time I have done any coding was in 2002. But with this whole cloud stuff .... things are so incredibly easy that I got this domain this morning. The site was up in a couple of hours with some issues. Went out for lunch ... came back and then solved those issues and cleaned up old website. I am in love with this whole cloud and commoditization basic services.

Q,

Congratulations on moving the forum so quickly.

Perhaps everyone who visits can do their bit to advertise the new location to people who might be interested.

[qesehmk]

Veni Thanks.

Now lets get back to business. Will update the header with latest 485 inventory and everything that other gurus have been predicting by late evening tonight.

Great and Congratulations!!

[sha_kus]

Congrats on the new site Q.

The Annual Report is out at
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10...leV-PartII.pdf

And all staticstics at
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html

Thanks
S

[veni001]

Veni Thanks.

Now lets get back to business. Will update the header with latest 485 inventory and everything that other gurus have been predicting by late evening tonight.

Thanks Q,
I was looking at I-140 trending from USCIS dash board, here is the summary

FY 2009
Total Receipts - Dec 08 -- Sept 09 - 46,714
Dec 08 -- Sept 09 - Total Completions - 132,611
Total Pending as of Sept 09 - 14,504
Awaiting Customer action as of Sept -09 - 2,634

FY 2010
Total Receipts - Oct 09 -- Sept 10 - 77,280
Oct 09 -- Sept 10 - Total Completions - 73,746
Total Pending as of Nov 10 - 28,176
Awaiting Customer action as of Nov -10 - 1,510

Even-though I-140 receipts for FY 2010 increased by 70% compared 2009 but, the Completions(approvals) are only half!

Even if we take the Net(Completions+Pending+Awaiting Action) for each FY

FY 2009 = 132,611+14,504+2,634 = 149,749 (Dec 08 --Sept 09)

FY 2010 = 73,746+28,176+1,510 = 103,432 (Oct 09 -- Nov 10)
================================================== ====
Difference = 46,317 This is Net Reduction
================================================== ===

How do you relate this for FY 2011 SOFAD?

[qesehmk]

73K 140 translates to 160K plus 485. Of which even if 80K is EB1 and EB2-ROW, tehn you won't find any SOFAD.

Secondly - Even though 140 approvals reduced from 2009-2010, its teh composition of those approvals that could've made teh difference.

The 2009 approvals may have consisted at least part of Jul 07 fiasco applications (which were all kinds of EB). Whereas 2010 approvals were probably EB1 and EB2-ROW.

Thanks Q,
I was looking at I-140 trending from USCIS dash board, here is the summary

FY 2009
Total Receipts - Dec 08 -- Sept 09 - 46,714
Dec 08 -- Sept 09 - Total Completions - 132,611
Total Pending as of Sept 09 - 14,504
Awaiting Customer action as of Sept -09 - 2,634

FY 2010
Total Receipts - Oct 09 -- Sept 10 - 77,280
Oct 09 -- Sept 10 - Total Completions - 73,746
Total Pending as of Nov 10 - 28,176
Awaiting Customer action as of Nov -10 - 1,510

Even-though I-140 receipts for FY 2010 increased by 70% compared 2009 but, the Completions(approvals) are only half!

Even if we take the Net(Completions+Pending+Awaiting Action) for each FY

FY 2009 = 132,611+14,504+2,634 = 149,749 (Dec 08 --Sept 09)

FY 2010 = 73,746+28,176+1,510 = 103,432 (Oct 09 -- Nov 10)
================================================== ====
Difference = 46,317 This is Net Reduction
================================================== ===

How do you relate this for FY 2011 SOFAD?

[veni001]

73K 140 translates to 160K plus 485. Of which even if 80K is EB1 and EB2-ROW, tehn you won't find any SOFAD.

Secondly - Even though 140 approvals reduced from 2009-2010, its the composition of those approvals that could've made teh difference.

The 2009 approvals may have consisted at least part of Jul 07 fiasco applications (which were all kinds of EB). Whereas 2010 approvals were probably EB1 and EB2-ROW.

Thanks Q,
Considering that case, Is it safe to assume all 41,026( or at-least 35k) EB1 approvals(FY 2010) are from the 74k I140 completions between Oct 09 -Sep 10?

Then we are only talking about 40K I140 for EB2-EB3. which equates to 84K i485. Assume 50% EB2, and we know that there are about 17.5K EB2 ROW (11K approved in FY2011 & 6.5K pending as of 10/10), this translates to less-than 15% of total i140 approvals are EB2 ROW?

[qesehmk]

Veni

Everything looks good to me. Except you need to make the same 2.2 assumption on your base exclusion of EB1 approvals. In other words you can only subtract 41K/2.2 from the 2010 I-140.

p.s. - Majority of EB1 approved in a year always come from the same year. Almost 90% plus.

Thanks Q,
Considering that case, Is it safe to assume all 41,026( or at-least 35k) EB1 approvals(FY 2010) are from the 74k I140 completions between Oct 09 -Sep 10?

Then we are only talking about 40K I140 for EB2-EB3. which equates to 84K i485. Assume 50% EB2, and we know that there are about 17.5K EB2 ROW (11K approved in FY2011 & 6.5K pending as of 10/10), this translates to less-than 15% of total i140 approvals are EB2 ROW?

[veni001]

Veni

Everything looks good to me. Except you need to make the same 2.2 assumption on your base exclusion of EB1 approvals. In other words you can only subtract 41K/2.2 from the 2010 I-140.

p.s. - Majority of EB1 approved in a year always come from the same year. Almost 90% plus.

Got it! Thanks Q,
That translates to my estimated EB2 ROW i485(incl. M&P) demand as 1k per month(plus pending)! for FY 2011.

[qesehmk]

So tha's about 18K in 2011.

Based on my discussions w Spec and Teddy the ROW-EB2 2011 demand would be somewhere near 24-28K. I know Teddy thinks its less than that. Wonder what these other gurus think about it.

Got it! Thanks Q,
That translates to my estimated EB2 ROW i485(incl. M&P) demand as 1k per month(plus pending)! for FY 2011.

[veni001]

So tha's about 18K in 2011.

Based on my discussions w Spec and Teddy the ROW-EB2 2011 demand would be somewhere near 24-28K. I know Teddy thinks its less than that. Wonder what these other gurus think about it.

Q,
That's right, again this assumes FY2010 PERM data(for EB2)and i140 data (EB1) as reference.
We saw increased i140 filings from March 2010(USCIS dash board) but any change in i140 filings starting Jan 2011 will have huge impact on SOFAD ( +ve or -ve).

In any case my gut feeling is EB2ROW( incl. M&P) shoul be less than 20k for FY 2011.

[bieber]

So tha's about 18K in 2011.

Based on my discussions w Spec and Teddy the ROW-EB2 2011 demand would be somewhere near 24-28K. I know Teddy thinks its less than that. Wonder what these other gurus think about it.

this includes mex and phi? taking the I+C quota out, 6-10k from EB2 across is possible?

so u r expecting fy2011 sofad slightly less than fy2010, 22-26k?

[qesehmk]

Bieber, I like you name :-)

I have a range from 15-35K but most likely it will be around 24-26K. There are others like Teddy who think more is possible. And then some like Spec who think it will be 20K.

I still haven't updated the header of the thread based on new 485 inventory and the 2010 data published.

However as I said always EB1 and EB2ROW are key to SOFAD. Based on EB5 contribution in 2010, one would be tempted to replace EB1 with EB5. Since EB1 continues to show strong demand and tends to utilize almost all its quota.

this includes mex and phi? taking the I+C quota out, 6-10k from EB2 across is possible?

so u r expecting fy2011 sofad slightly less than fy2010, 22-26k?

[Spectator]

Got it! Thanks Q,
That translates to my estimated EB2 ROW i485(incl. M&P) demand as 1k per month(plus pending)! for FY 2011.

Hi veni.

I must admit you have lost me as to how you arrive at demand of 1k per month.

I think there are dangers to looking at the FY2009 data. Huge backlog reduction was under way and completions in some months were as high as 18-19k.

Another way to perhaps look at it is to say there were 74k I-140 completions in FY2010.

If 20k of these related to EB1, then 54k related to EB2/EB3.

If 50% of these were EB2 and 55% were Countries other than India and China that gives 14.85k EB2-ROW I-140s.

That would be 32.67k I-485 for EB2-ROW. We know that there were actually 27.4k approvals in FY2010 so that is a factor of 84%.

Currently, the average completions in FY2011 would give 65k for the year. Removing EB1 of 19k (because there are less visas) gives 46k. Using the 50% and 55% factors again gives 12.65k EB2 (non I or C) and 27.83k I-485. At 84% factor, that would be 23.38k I-485 approvals, which is 4k less than FY2010.

But, completions are running at a very low rate. If the current Receipt and Completions rates continued, the pending numbers would climb from 24k in September 2010 to just over 50k at the end of FY2011. Even just stabilizing the current Pending numbers would provide more than enough extra completions to match and exceed last year's figures.

I realize I have made some simplifications, but I think it still illustrates the point. Really, we don't have enough information on what is happening in FY2011, since USCIS have only published figures on I-140 for 2 months of the fiscal year.

[Spectator]

Bieber, I like you name :-)

I have a range from 15-35K but most likely it will be around 24-26K. There are others like Teddy who think more is possible. And then some like Spec who think it will be 20K.

I still haven't updated the header of the thread based on new 485 inventory and the 2010 data published.

However as I said always EB1 and EB2ROW are key to SOFAD. Based on EB5 contribution in 2010, one would be tempted to replace EB1 with EB5. Since EB1 continues to show strong demand and tends to utilize almost all its quota.

Q,

I have a range as well, although it does shift as more data comes in. It currently is stands at 21-26k SOFAD.

I have allowed for an increase in EB5 approvals, which may not happen.

It assumes a conservative position on EB1 (35-40k). If in fact the current Trackitt figures reflect reality for the entire year, it would allow for an entirely different level of SOFAD.

[geevikram]

Q,

I have a range as well, although it does shift as more data comes in. It currently is stands at 21-26k SOFAD.

I have allowed for an increase in EB5 approvals, which may not happen.

It assumes a conservative position on EB1 (35-40k). If in fact the current Trackitt figures reflect reality for the entire year, it would allow for an entirely different level of SOFAD.

Spec,
What would be your SOFAD if trackitt were an accurate representation of EB1 consumption?

And thank you all for your awesome contribution.

-Vik

[bieber]

Q, thanks, inspired from teen sensation Justin Bieber.

Q and Spec both expecting 21/22-26K, don't know why I think they are on different poles with numbers during the discussion though

[bieber]

I like Teddy this year, last yr Q gave bigger sofad projection and teddy was conservative

[qesehmk]

Why only you, I like Teddy better than my SELF this year !! I wish he is right about real SOFAD following trackitt trend and creating a windfall for SOFAD.

I like Teddy this year, last yr Q gave bigger sofad projection and teddy was conservative