This is more like communication between different govt departments its USCIS which approved the I140's but DOS where CO is the big boss that assigns the visa numbers.Originally Posted by sandeep11
This is more like communication between different govt departments its USCIS which approved the I140's but DOS where CO is the big boss that assigns the visa numbers.
Thanks Q, so he meant Non-EB2IC pending numbers.
no no no ...
think this way. The EB2IC 140 demand is huge. His visa numbers are 140K. So if he were to make a move based on 140s that are ready to go into adjustment mode, he already has more than 140K possible applicants. But he cant move dates by that much because throughout the year he has to maintain the country quota etc. So what he is going to do is - my best guess but nonetheless - take a realistic measure of non-EB2IC non-EB3 demand first. And then stack 40K for EB3 on top of that. Then everything else that remains he is going to possibly consider the EB2IC dates to cover that much ground. In other words he will move the EB2IC dates just enough to generate demand for next years SOFAD.Once he takes them in then he will retrogress and then throuhout year will make SFM.
But again this is just one interpretation. Who knows what will happen!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Following is an excerpt from I-140 instruction sheet on USCIS website. It says at the time of filing and not at the time of approval.
"Information on Spouse and All Children of the Person for Whom You are Filing
Part 7 of Form I-140 requests information about dependent spouse and children of the alien beneficiary of the petition to assist in visa processing and in order for USCIS to better determine the demand for employment-based immigrant visas at the time of filing of the Form I-140 petition.
Last edited by cantwaitlonger; 07-20-2011 at 05:29 PM.
Inventory levels...
CSFM is for post October 2011, depending upon the inventory levels as of October 1st 2011 obviously. This is what's been happening for last 3 years. The story-line could be slightly different, if CIS runs out of the inventory.(chances??)
TK, are you saying CSFM for September as well? I think we are trying to interpret CO's statement in different time frames, for september month alone and for the entire fy 2012?
Best!
IMHO, this is to ensure that no EB2IC trumps a deserving EB2ROW.
I took that to mean the number of approved I-140 pending with USCIS with a PD of 15 Aug 07 or later.
USCIS have previously said they do not capture any information on Category, PD and Country of Chargeability until the I-140 is adjudicated.
No one knows for sure whether USCIS have fully compiled a list of Approved I-140 by Category, PD and CofC. It took them long enough to compile one for I-485.In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.
I am almost certain one does not exist for I-140 that have yet to be adjudicated.
Last edited by Spectator; 07-20-2011 at 05:44 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This was my interpretation as well...as applicable to September vb. Not sure about the retrogression though, he'll gradually catchup with the monthly allocation, without actually moving the dates until next May.
this is in fact, a really great find. thank you.
"only if the alien beneficiary is married", I believe good chunk of EB2 advanced degree applicants may not be married at the time of applying i140.
Example: I am not married at the time of my i140 filing.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Agree, it's a good idea.
FYI. Guys it is confirmed from mitbbs that the well-discussed "19k" figure reduced to less than 7K for EB2 for Sept only. It is not nearly enough to clear the prior "Wave" numbers. Sorry but it may mean no BTM this year, I guess.
If that's the case, I think there will be hardly a few weeks to a month of forward movement and the likely dates for EB2-I/C will be anywhere between 1st May and 1st June.
Hello all, This is my first post on this forum. Thank you very much for all that you do here. I feel that I know most of you, they way you answer, the way you react, etc. In short, I feel that I am in a good company of friends. I have been following this thread for a few months now and watched all the major milestones. For the last couple of days I did not read here. Like a novel, I bookmark every time I visit and am done reading and then continue from there during my subsequent visit. What prompted me today to register and finally speak up is the post by qblogfan. I am really sorry that you are in a situation that you are in. Unless you are in a God forsaken state, most of the states have right to work laws. The BS contract that your employer made you sign may in some cases be deemed as illegal. Just because your company lawyer is in bed with this will not make it an legal. There are a lot of unscrupulous lawyers out there. For a hundred or two, you can have your contract examined by an Employment lawyer and they should be able to tell you if the contract would hold water. Stick it to the man, man! There is no point in working for such a company. They cannot force you to pay money for the fees spent till now. When you resign and leave, if they hold the paycheck, it is illegal. You can sue them for it. You can complain to DOL, etc. There are options. As I said before, stick it to the man!
Good luck!
Honeymoon ain't even started yet and bride ran away!
19k was for the whole of EB community and not just for EB2. per the discussions
it was concluded that it was for aug and sept.
myfr66,
Any chance of posting a link to the thread(s) on mitbbs.com where this was discussed?
I had a look, but couldn't find anything beyond the original threads.
Thanks.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you Spec, Can you also add a comment at the end of post #1 that more information available in post #3 just to make sure people scroll down there.
I have already referred to that table many times, today when myfr66 quoted the available number reduced down to 7K I went back to refer your table to see where the cut of date might end. Thank you for putting this table together.
sorry dude... but here we are happy... one less dependent visa number for GC ;-) ... jokes apart... this news is still waiting for authenticity approval from fab 4... dont worry, rumours float around...Honeymoon ain't even started yet and bride ran away!
http://youtu.be/h0b5VGrKVG4 -- GC Journey in KOLAVERI Song!!!!!
harick,
Glad you find it useful. Post #1 updated to refer to it.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I wanted to post this for some time, I like your quotaion "Without an irritant, there can be no pearl". I am thinking about adding a improvised version to my profile like "Without a movement, there can be no GC"
My bad, i didn't notice the numbers were only for India and i was looknig at wrong column.
Spec
I appreciate the number crunching here but for some reason I am trying to co-relate it, since the demand prior to 2008 is 6400 and they have known demand until Aug 15 (july fiasco) but for some reason it doesn't make sense 6400 v/s 8256. the 6400 includes both cis and nvc numbers combined.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
#############################################
Originally Posted by Spectator
Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).
It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.
It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.
-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224
Last edited by meso129; 07-21-2011 at 09:45 AM.
My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.
I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-21-2011 at 09:49 AM.
We'll have to take into account total demand before 2008, which is 10,450.
Which btw, will NOT include PWMB after march 8th 2007 and spouses and children if any to the original 485 applications.
Thanks Q once gain for your detailed explanantion. Let us hope he would go this route.
But I believe that he would prefer SFM (a month or two in the first few months and bump it up to 4-5 months in the last Q) for the reason that they would want to stream line the 485 process with all the mess they had for the last few years. The important question remains though is that with the SFM way would they be sure not to waste any numbers.
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