EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[harick]

Q and other gurus, Do you think using post #3 to add any additional information is a good idea?

Thanks

Q,

It exceeded the maximum character count when I tried to put it in the header, so I have put it in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Cut-Off-Date

[nishant2200]

btw, the fiasco where in the link to August visa bulletin was put and then removed , on OH law firm's website (google and find it), this is the reason put for it:

07/12/2011: August 2011 Visa Bulletin Link Restored

The August Visa Bulletin was released this morning, but later the link was broken. This problem has been fixed by the State Department. It appears that while they reset up the link into a different line to give a room for future release of September Visa Bulletin, the link was temporarily removed

[natvyas]

I may be hung up on the I-140 processing information that has come through from the dashboards but here is another scenario....

Given the I-140 filings and approvals the CO might draw a conclusion that there will be little to none SOFAD for EB2 I/C next year and hence wouldnt see the need for SFM or BTM this year.

[nishant2200]

I'm hoping its till Aug 22 2008 ....... so I can get in

one more thing, for all the people who have PDs on 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, this is a very nightmarish possibility that PD gets to that date, and they have to wait due to one day.

mine is on an 8th ...

[nishant2200]

I may be hung up on the I-140 processing information that has come through from the dashboards but here is another scenario....

Given the I-140 filings and approvals the CO might draw a conclusion that there will be little to none SOFAD for EB2 I/C next year and hence wouldnt see the need for SFM or BTM this year.

I think in this case, he would still go for at least 1Q movement. He don't want to be caught with pants down later on in the FY. I frankly, don't think, that he will think there will be little or none SOFAD, given the fact that since last three years we are having SO.

[natvyas]

one more thing, for all the people who have PDs on 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, this is a very nightmarish possibility that PD gets to that date, and they have to wait due to one day.

mine is on an 8th ...

Those individuals should see the silver lining which is the next time the date moves it will definitely cross their PD date. I know its easier said than done.

Regards
Nat

[leo07]

"Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?"

As far as CO's quote, I think he will look at what's sustainable for a year, plain 2800*2 for IC. Not sure, if he can/will/want to extrapolate the sofad for entire fy 2012 so early. That was my interpretation. ( with my masala obviosuly )

My initial number 3800 was a typo, I meant 2800 only for I or 5600 for IC and it is for September bulletin. September bulletin is a special case for the entire year, because CO will have some liberty to move the dates forward. Come October, he strictly have to move by 250-270 numbers per month.

Leo, let us know your thoughts on what you interpret when CO says, " the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012,". Will he base that on the SOFAD this year, will he drill down to factors like backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW, economy improvement signals, increased 140 filings. I am trying to think on this sentence by CO a lot, it's a very important one.

The wordings of the quotes by CO, frankly, speaking, look quite genuine, and sound as if they would come from a important guarded official. thanks to our chinese friends.

[leo07]

I can't agree more with you on this ..mine is June 8th 2007. I haven't been lucky so far.

one more thing, for all the people who have PDs on 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, this is a very nightmarish possibility that PD gets to that date, and they have to wait due to one day.

mine is on an 8th ...

[soggadu]

My PD is on 22 ... Abb mein kya karoon... Didn't get a chance to choose to get on to the earth, my skin color, my tongue, my religion, my first toy , my sippie cup and not even the PD... Damn ittttt.....

[shaumack]

One thing to think about is whether reduction in I-485 processing time back to 4 months by Texas Service Center after clearing some good backlog from past few months, is it an indication of USCIS getting ready for some big influx of applications during September?

[neospeed]

Any new news from mitbbs ? Hard to read those threads using translator (:

[MeraNoAayega]

Irrespective of whether it is SFM or BTM, irrespective of what CO says right now, they are supposed to take fresh I485 apps for EB2I&C until Dec 2007 before Dec 2011.
Otherwise, they will be at a loss of not being able assign visa numbers for any kind of spill over for next FY 2012.
By taking new apps by Dec 2011, they will have enough time to process them (4-6 months duration) and be ready to assign visa numbers. If they don't do it right now and if SOFAD is close to 15 - 20 k, then there is a greater possibility of spill over to EB3, which is not that bad, but will eventually force them to make EB2I&C current against their own wishes. If that's what they have to do next year, then why not do it right now.

I still don't understand how visas will be wasted... In case USCIS cannot approve EB2 then EB2 visas wil ltrickle down to EB3....

[soggadu]

I still don't understand how visas will be wasted... In case USCIS cannot approve EB2 then EB2 visas wil ltrickle down to EB3....

for this EB2 on the whole have to be current which is very unrealistic at this point...

[MeraNoAayega]

for this EB2 on the whole have to be current which is very unrealistic at this point...

but is realistic in Q4 2012...

[soggadu]

but is realistic in Q4 2012...

kya uncle(for fun) aap bhi... 2011 mein hi itna mushkil ho raha hein... but i think it would be more difficult for 2012 as SOFAD would be lesser than this year...

[PlainSpeak]

for this EB2 on the whole have to be current which is very unrealistic at this point...

If there are no EB2 cases to process visas, then the numbers trickle down to EB3, and for that to happen why does EB2 need to be current. Even if EB2 is current the visa numbers cannot be used by EB2 because visas numbers are assigned after adjudication is complete and EB2 becoming current does not make the apps eligible for visa given the 1 month time frame (end of year October) left to use the visas

[soggadu]

If there are no EB2 cases to process visas, then the numbers trickle down to EB3, and for that to happen why does EB2 need to be current. Even if EB2 is current the visa numbers cannot be used by EB2 because visas numbers are assigned after adjudication is complete and EB2 becoming current does not make the apps eligible for visa given the 1 month time frame (end of year October) left to use the visas

bhaiya... Eb2 woh nadi hein jo kabhi sukha nahi reh sak tha... we have seen people getting approved in 2 months once they file 485... look at numbers from spec (FACTS AND DATA)... loads to clear... phir PWBA ... phir neendien vunda ne vaali porting... lagta nahi ki khaali padega EB2 in near future...

[qesehmk]

Nishant
It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate

Agree. This is good.

Hi Q,SPEC,T & Others

I have been following this forum and appreciate all the hard work put in by you guys. Thanks for all the information & Calculations you have been providing regarding the GC Process....

Thanks

Welcome to the forum to you and all those who have recently joined.

Q and other gurus, Do you think using post #3 to add any additional information is a good idea?

Thanks

Of course ... Spec Teddy Veni what do you think guys?

[TeddyKoochu]

One thing to think about is whether reduction in I-485 processing time back to 4 months by Texas Service Center after clearing some good backlog from past few months, is it an indication of USCIS getting ready for some big influx of applications during September?

This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.

=Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that

Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur.

I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs.

That information will then be compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

[whythewait]

Thanks Spectator for the following data.

Does it make sense to estimate the EB2-IC date movements for FY2012 based on an estimated spillover data (using I-140 approval data)?

#########################
Originally Posted by Spectator
Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

[neospeed]

This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.



Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

If we look back 2009 and 2010 thats what happened (CSFM), they never moved the dates back (Retrogress). Probably that is long term approach also. PWMB (untill it reaches aug 15th) and porting providing the neccesary cushion of not wasting any visas and they will intake new ones in capsules.

Most of the cases of EB2 I/C only waiting on I-485's which usually takes 4 months to process, cis and dos will be able to react fast if things change at the end of third quater of fy 2012.

[Spectator]

Q and other gurus, Do you think using post #3 to add any additional information is a good idea?

Thanks

harick,

Good idea.

I have added the table to post #3 as well. Hopefully people should be able to find it in one location or the other.

[Spectator]

Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

Teddy,

I agree it can be read either way. If you take the phrase "begin advancing the cut-off date", that implies doing it in steps.

PS Even I am starting to forget what some of the acronyms stand for!

[sandeep11]

This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.



Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?

[qesehmk]

I took that as a good possibility of making a BTM equivalent to 1 Yr supply of visas after factoring in future x (may be 9) months of non-EB2IC demand.

"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?