EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.

The down side is that although for I-485 there were around 9.5k more approvals than receipts, for I-140 there were 11.3k more Receipts than Approvals.

[kd2008]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

Initial Posting Includes Naturalization and Adjustment of Status Performance Data

Released July 18, 2011

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) today announced the availability of new data reports covering agency performance in a broad range of data and operational areas. The reports, prepared at the request of agency stakeholders, advance agency efforts to enhance transparency and improve customer service.

“We are proud to announce that, for the first time, we are able to share performance data in critical areas of this agency’s work,” said USCIS Director Alejandro Mayorkas. “We remain committed to continuing our efforts to be responsive, open and transparent.”

USCIS’ Office of Performance and Quality has now made 10 data sets available to the public on our website at the following address: www.uscis.gov/data. Four of the data sets will be updated monthly; they include processing times and performance data for Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime.

Additionally, the following data sets have been published and will be updated quarterly:

Total number of receipts and approvals by quarter and year-to-date for all form types
For Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime

USCIS will continue to add more data sets to the web page in the future.

[Spectator]

Spec, this is what I was asking. The 19K for September...if that made more sense now.

Monica,

Sorry for asking - that was exactly the information I needed.

I believe both Q and I believe the 19k covers both August and September.

For different reasons we both believe that in the best case, 8-10k spillover might be available in September, but it is too early to say for sure.

Both of us believe around 4k probably represents the lowest amount.

If I have misrepresented Q's latest thinking, I am sure he will correct me, but I know he is busy with work currently.

[neospeed]

Info from non immigrant site. Looks like numbers we got from mittbs match:

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.

[Monica12]

Monica,

Sorry for asking - that was exactly the information I needed.

I believe both Q and I believe the 19k covers both August and September.

For different reasons we both believe that in the best case, 8-10k spillover might be available in September, but it is too early to say for sure.

Both of us believe around 4k probably represents the lowest amount.

If I have misrepresented Q's latest thinking, I am sure he will correct me, but I know he is busy with work currently.

Thanks Spec, Neospeed,
It all makes sense now!

[mesan123]

The down side is that although for I-485 there were around 9.5k more approvals than receipts, for I-140 there were 11.3k more Receipts than Approvals.

I heard there were I-140 rejections this year...as scrutiny is more...heard few of my friends i-140 got rejeceted...

[veni001]

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...2011-april.pdf

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

cantwaitlonger, kd2008;

Great Information!

cantwaitlonger,

A great find!

It gives insight into the number of approvals from local offices, even if we don't know which EB Category or Country they are in.

It shows how the backlog has reduced, the number of cases that were Current and could be approved from the LO itself. It also shows the Approval /Denial rate.

It perhaps also shows a baseline of cases that are now pending on a monthly basis after the USCIS memo requesting pre-adjudicated cases were sent to TSC.

I don't think I have ever seen a document giving such a detailed peek into the Local Office processing.

Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

[neospeed]

cantwaitlonger, kd2008;

Great Information!




Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

Yes there was memo in dec 2010 to transfer all the local office employment cases to Texas and family based to Nebraska to better manage the pending numbers

[Spectator]

Info from non immigrant site. Looks like numbers we got from mittbs match:

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

[qesehmk]

Spec

with the caveat of course that the 19K for Sep+Aug EXCLUDES any EB2IC spillover which is already allocated through end of August.

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

[nishant2200]

Dear gurus, once you get time, please put forth summary of any new insight or corroboration on existing views / info we had, based on today's data sheet findings by the forum members.

[imdeng]

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...2011-april.pdf

[Spectator]

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

imdeng,

Both sets of data are also available in csv format, which I have imported into Excel.

You can find them if you go to the data home page, then find the relevant report. http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

[veni001]

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

imdeng,
Download the CSV format from here and open it up in excel.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

Veni,

I think that is possibly a little misleading.

As neospeed noted, the pre-adjudicated cases awaiting a visa have now been sent to TSC.

I have been laboriously compiling the figures of preadjudicated cases at LO all year and there appears to be a churn of around 1-2k that become preadjudicated each month. That is in line with further additions to the USCIS Inventory.

So I think the LO may have a number of different cases pending in any one month. Whether they are sent by the NBC or just come from storage, I don't know.

The LO only appear to be interviewing EB cases just ahead of where the Cut Off Dates are, so I am convinced there are still a very large unknown number of cases still to come through the LO system. The data just provides a snapshot of the situation.

[veni001]

Veni,

I think that is possibly a little misleading.

As neospeed noted, the pre-adjudicated cases awaiting a visa have now been sent to TSC.

I have been laboriously compiling the figures of preadjudicated cases at LO all year and there appears to be a churn of around 1-2k that become preadjudicated each month. That is in line with further additions to the USCIS Inventory.

So I think the LO may have a number of different cases pending in any one month. Whether they are sent by the NBC or just come from storage, I don't know.

The LO only appear to be interviewing EB cases just ahead of where the Cut Off Dates are, so I am convinced there are still a very large unknown number of cases still to come through the LO system. The data just provides a snapshot of the situation.

Spec,
Since the document only providing information from October 2009 - April 2011, you think still large volume of EB cases are at LO?

I think we discussed this extensively back in January 2011(posts 661-666) and agreed that this demand will be post August 2005, if existed.

Just looking at PERM Certifications/485 inventories and 485 approvals, i don't think this ("dark demand") is significant!

[veni001]

Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

Q,
In addition EB485 receipts dropped almost 15% from Q1 to Q2 (19.6k to 16.8k) and pending EB1&EB2ROW-M-P(485) increased by 22%(17.4k to 21.1k) at the same time.

[qblogfan]

Sure, I am glad that I can help.

Nowadays this website is the first site I visit every morning after I turn on my computer.

qblogfan, Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, I'm really glad you are on this forum

[qesehmk]

qbf, I too share the same sentiment. And not just you, I truly welcome all chinese friends. After all, we are more similar than different.

When in college, I developed a wonderful friendship some of my Japanese Chinese and Korean friends. Me and my wife had our first child while I was in college and one of my chinese friends and his wife helped us a lot. In fact they gave us tons of baby clothes and it was funny to see my son wearing chinese style baby clothes When I considered sending my wife back to India for deliverying the baby, my friends wife came and scolded me until I was blue! That's when I realized that the chinese are very similar to Indians. Those were just 2 years of my life and it has been 10 years now ... but I still call him. In fact I just called him a month back and he was unfortunately quite frustrated because he couldn't cope up with the environment there. BTW he is interested in coming back and in pursuing a PHD. I do not know what advice to give him since he is probably 42 now. But anyway ... just wanted to say that i am glad you guys found it worthwhile to visit here and share information. Appreciate the spirit.

Sure, I am glad that I can help.

Nowadays this website is the first site I visit every morning after I turn on my computer.

Q,
In addition EB485 receipts dropped almost 15% from Q1 to Q2 (19.6k to 16.8k) and pending EB1&EB2ROW-M-P(485) increased by 22%(17.4k to 21.1k) at the same time.

veni, yes ... absolutely. That's where the majority of spillover is coming from.

[TeddyKoochu]

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

Spec Iam in complete agreement with you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends thanks for all your postings. Here are my thoughts.

- The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts.

- The document validated the part # 1 of the mittbs news about approvals in the first 7 months the figures bear a very close correlation.

- With regards the second part of the mittbs news Iam definitely more inclined to believe that the 19K is for both Aug and Sep, here is why a) If its for September only the best of the most optimistic scenario can justify that; SOFAD may well exceed 40 K in that scenario b) In that case the Aug bulletin would have been far more positive than conservative. c) logically as well in the last 2 months there should be 17-19K left in terms of visa numbers (Refer to Spec's Analysis) and because of PWMB filings happening the agencies may have needed some buffer. My personal take is that there will be 3-4K SOFAD in the September bulletin. There is some chance that pipeline building might happen in September but this is something totally hypothetical and at the discretion of the agencies.

[qesehmk]

There is a lot of confusion about September leftover visas (news courtesy MITBBS). So I have once again tried to simplify the explanation in the HEADER.

If you still don't get it or have doubts .. my advice is leave it ... its not worth it. The bottomline is the dates will certainly move in September. Min 6 weeks (SFM). Max could beanything upto 18 months (BTM).

[bababless]

I am sorry if its dumb question but I missed the terminology..what does it mean by BTM.

There is a lot of confusion about September leftover visas (news courtesy MITBBS). So I have once again tried to simplify the explanation in the HEADER.

If you still don't get it or have doubts .. my advice is leave it ... its not worth it. The bottomline is the dates will certainly move in September. Min 6 weeks (SFM). Max could beanything upto 18 months (BTM).

[gchopeful123]

Refer to the 1st page for terminology.

I am sorry if its dumb question but I missed the terminology..what does it mean by BTM.

[qblogfan]

Q, I am very glad to know your story.

My best friend in graduate school was from Southern India. We went to class together and studied together for 2 years. When I had trouble finding a job after graduation, this Indian friend encouraged me and helped me. Finally I settled my job offer with his help and left the city where we studied together, but I still have a good memory of the time spent with this friend. I like the Indian culture because Indian folks are conservative and family oriented.

qbf, I too share the same sentiment. And not just you, I truly welcome all chinese friends. After all, we are more similar than different.

When in college, I developed a wonderful friendship some of my Japanese Chinese and Korean friends. Me and my wife had our first child while I was in college and one of my chinese friends and his wife helped us a lot. In fact they gave us tons of baby clothes and it was funny to see my son wearing chinese style baby clothes When I considered sending my wife back to India for deliverying the baby, my friends wife came and scolded me until I was blue! That's when I realized that the chinese are very similar to Indians. Those were just 2 years of my life and it has been 10 years now ... but I still call him. In fact I just called him a month back and he was unfortunately quite frustrated because he couldn't cope up with the environment there. BTW he is interested in coming back and in pursuing a PHD. I do not know what advice to give him since he is probably 42 now. But anyway ... just wanted to say that i am glad you guys found it worthwhile to visit here and share information. Appreciate the spirit.





veni, yes ... absolutely. That's where the majority of spillover is coming from.