EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[iamdeb]

Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.

Thanks to both Q and qblogfan for putting the mitbbs news into correct perspective.

[veni001]

I that should be all you need from employer. Just like 485 - AC21 is a form filed by candidate not by the employer. It is another matter some employers keep filing 485 and keep paying all EAD and 131 expenses.

What does it mean when you say "New employer needs to support AC21". They do provide a immigration verification letter that states all the criteria except for detailed job description. Is involvement of new employer really required other than providing immigration verification letter + detailed job description?

Thanks for your help in advance.

It basically employment verification letter(similar to the one filed with 485) from new employer. Remember new Job must to "similar" to the JD in i140 on-file. Once you have this letter either you/your attorney can send a memo explaining that you want to invoke AC21 and change employer.

In most cases when some one doesn't file AC21, when the old employer request USCIS to withdraw underlying i140, will get NOID/RFE for employment verification.

[vizcard]

I know individual cases cannot (will not?) be answered but I figured its worth a shot. All the projections for BTM point to Q2 2008-ish. Any idea what the implications are for those PDs in July / Aug / Sept 2008.

I'm a 8/20/2008 PD so this obviously means something to me.

PS: Brilliant job on these analyses. These are all projections and may be off but the analysis and logic is solid.

[familyguy]

qblogfan, thanks for the clarification.. hope we will get out of this mess soon....

The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.

The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.

[soggadu]

Just a Look at trackitt data for month of July '2011 - EB2 Approvals:
India: 176
China: 2
rest of world: 11
Total : 189

r u sure about the numbers? Spec have them at 159 for India...

[soggadu]

I know individual cases cannot (will not?) be answered but I figured its worth a shot. All the projections for BTM point to Q2 2008-ish. Any idea what the implications are for those PDs in July / Aug / Sept 2008.

I'm a 8/20/2008 PD so this obviously means something to me.

PS: Brilliant job on these analyses. These are all projections and may be off but the analysis and logic is solid.

Viz... if you look at the analysis, if there is any BTM this year then it might go up to Q1 2008. For ur PD i guess it would be the same time next year ( if we have any BTM this FY )...

[nishant2200]

Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.

guys, I also think so, didn't want to put it too forcefully as it would kind of disappoint. But 20k sounds like the plateau to reach next year. Honestly, EB2 I needs a SO each year to move at all, because the normal quota will be eaten up by porting totally.

[qesehmk]

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.

[grnwtg]

r u sure about the numbers? Spec have them at 159 for India...

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

[soggadu]

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

oh ok... might be those cases were added after 8:30 EDT... but anyway thanks for the update... i hope this number goes above 400 by EOM...

[pch053]

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

[krishnav]

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.

Hi Q and other Gurus,

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept?? It will be painful for someone to wait for 6-8 months for a date movement of 2-3 weeks.

[qesehmk]

Theoretically possible. But if they are approving PWMBs in a couple of month then the possibility is extremely SMALL.

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

[qesehmk]

Borderline cases are painful unfortunately. The silver line is .... it only delays your EAD and AC21 status and in no way it will delay your time to GC by more than 6 months MAX that what it would be otherwise had you been able to file this year itself.

Hi Q and other Gurus,

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept?? It will be painful for someone to wait for 6-8 months for a date movement of 2-3 weeks.

[soggadu]

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

Q... EB3 can get the spilover only when EB2 on the whole is current right....and they are not making EB2 I/C current anytime soon...

[qesehmk]

Very good point! Agree. In my mind reaching Aug 2007 is becoming current and hence the mistake. I stand corrected by you.

Q... EB3 can get the spilover only when EB2 on the whole is current right....and they are not making EB2 I/C current anytime soon...

[soggadu]

Very good point! Agree. In my mind reaching Aug 2007 is becoming current and hence the mistake. I stand corrected by you.

Those who make no mistakes are making the biggest mistakes of all — they are attempting nothing new...by someone famous

[Spectator]

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

grnwtg,

Don't worry about the difference

The numbers are apples and oranges.

For instance, I only consider Primary approvals, since Trackitt Dependent approvals don't correctly reflect the the 1.1 approvals per Primary seen in real life. I adjust for that later, when converting to "real world" numbers.

The numbers are also adjusted for Country of Chargeability issues and Porting cases still shown as EB3 in Trackitt, plus a few other corrections.

I also include EB2-NIW.

It would be quite difficult to exactly match my figures.

[krishnav]

Borderline cases are painful unfortunately. The silver line is .... it only delays your EAD and AC21 status and in no way it will delay your time to GC by more than 6 months MAX that what it would be otherwise had you been able to file this year itself.

Agreed..but honestly, I am fine with my GC being late than my EAD being late as it will be useful for my wife to start working. I have a job and dont need any stamping atleast till 2013. So, at this point, I just need an EAD so that my wife can start working as its difficult for her to sit at home doing nothing as she was a working person back in India. I am sure a lot of members here have the same issue.

By the way, I still did not get an answer for my other question..Sorry if it was already answered earlier. I follow the forum regularly..but could have missed it somehow.

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

[srimurthy]

This is quite an active and useful blog. A friend of mine suggested and have been trying to follow for a couple of weeks before joining. Great work guys and a lot of info from the experts for someone like me who is new to the race. keep it up.

[indiaeb2]

Hello Friends - I just joined as a member after reading the post .Awsome predictions. Please can you quide me. My PD is 6th Aug 2007. when do you expect me to atleast file for i485. I missed the last july fisco. Please help me.

[soggadu]

Hello Friends - I just joined as a member after reading the post .Awsome predictions. Please can you quide me. My PD is 6th Aug 2007. when do you expect me to atleast file for i485. I missed the last july fisco. Please help me.

you would have got an idea if you have already read the pages... i understand it is hard to cover them all, but just browse last couple and you will find an answer...

[soggadu]

Agreed..but honestly, I am fine with my GC being late than my EAD being late as it will be useful for my wife to start working. I have a job and dont need any stamping atleast till 2013. So, at this point, I just need an EAD so that my wife can start working as its difficult for her to sit at home doing nothing as she was a working person back in India. I am sure a lot of members here have the same issue.

By the way, I still did not get an answer for my other question..Sorry if it was already answered earlier. I follow the forum regularly..but could have missed it somehow.

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

krish... i guess the movement should be same as discussed in the last two pages... please give them a read... and whether it would be a sustained movment or a BTM... as of now it is only guess work... cant say for sure...by the way my pd is oct 22 2007... same boat...

[indiaeb2]

Thanks Soggadu. I read but not sure what is the final prediction. can you please summarize it or please let me know if i have a chance in sep 2011 to file my 485

[Spectator]

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.