Something off the topic: I think the other reason for the huge number of Korean applicants is that a large number of Korean students are studying in the graduate schools in US. The number of Korean students is very close to Chinese/Indian students in US. I heard the average income in South Korea is pretty high, but the living cost is even higher. Every immigrant just wants to have a better life here, it's understandable.
Originally Posted by nishant2200
If the objective of the BTM is to build a pipeline for next spillover season then it does not make sense to keep different PDs for India and China since they will come together during spillover season anyway. If there would be a BTM then I imagine it would have the same PD for India and China. There is really no reason to keep them different and add another reason of complexity.
Kanmani,
I understand why you are saying that, but since those numbers could only be allocated during spillover season, wouldn't they have to share the same Cut Off date?
In that case, combining China & India totals presents no problems. I agree China and India will have different Cut Off Dates leading up to the FY2012 spillover season.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Total EB2-China demand before 1/1/2008 should be around 3k.
I also calculated the EB2-China demand before 6/30/2008 should be around 5k.
I think it's possible EB-2 China will get ahead of EB-2 India during the first 2 or 3 quarters, but still the yearly visa number for China can not meet the yearly demand. We will have to rely on spillover in the next summer.
Nishant,
Calculations look pretty neat according to the numbers available.
1) In 2007, from previous inventory, i see that there are average ~2000 pending applicants/months for IC ( July is unusual as lot more used some others labor certs) with many labors being substitutes ( from my friends sample, 50% are substitutes).
2) If i look at my Masters friends, many people got married to fellow students ( especially girls), 80 to 90% of those labors/I140 did not/will not convert to 485's ( we can consider most of them are Girls)
3) My friends/peers close to 100 students community and around 30H1B friends who did not file/used labors till July 2007 -- only 10-15 of us did not get a chance to file I-485 and almost 90% of remaining people got their GC's already.
Looking at above personal sample - i am feeling 33k from August'2007 to June'2008 is little more??
Probably my circle of friends are different?
Does any one have this kind of experience?
2.04 dependent factor is probably good number.
imdeng, qblogfan, Yes, me too not having any problems with any group or country. It is what it is, just knowing information helps in planning our lives and better prepared, as is the motto of this forum. qblogfan, I agree with your point about students from K, in my time at university, lots of graduate students almost equaling I were from K, and most of them took lot of smoke breaks below the library. My co-worker tells me it's a very common scene along all US universities.
Kanmani, the numbers are for I and C combined. Thanks to Spectator for having the base data compiled to allow further interpretations like this. I agree that C has much less demand and they would be in much better place if not for starvation due to backlogged I. So they may be in a forward date already next year before SO, but in SO season, as well all know, the assignment of visas is strictly in PD order, so I would like to say, they will be pegged at a same date as India, and hence, to make things simpler, I think the BTM will also be for a same date for I and C.
grnwtg, I agree with your thoughts. Even one of my friends recently married a citizen. And also other points you mentioned. Basically, people realize the problems and are trying to work their way around them. This is human behavior, to adapt and survive! My figures admittedly are on high side, but I like to be conservative. We may introduce one more factor into the final column, called hardship factor, maybe say a 0.9, and say the real figure is only 90% of the last column. That would make the 33k a 29.7k and added with porting, would equal the 35k approximated by qblogfan.
I also said my thoughts about people with Jan 1st 2008, getting GC for almost sure, while after that, EAD for sure, because of my feeling that next year, actual SOFAD might be less, because of various factors, like backlog reduction of EB1 & EB2 ROW, policy favoring EB5, economy being bit better than this year, Porting gaining a bit of a traction because of people having qualified due to side by side education or gaining in experience, people in EB1 and EB2 NIW learning from this year's scrutiny and being better prepared... and so on, more maybe thought. But a 20k SOFAD seems to be very certain inspite of all this, hence I thought until Jan 1st 2008, very good chance.
Last edited by nishant2200; 07-18-2011 at 09:51 AM.
Expecting BTM in septemeber bulletin may be stretch, as per the information posted CO said once Aug15th 2007 is reached then there will be considerations for intake.
so, If infact the dates will move to Aug15 in next bulletin, may be then BTM can be expected in the following month.
Guys, not sure if I missed something, but is the source reliable? are we over reacting? Few days ago when the bulletin was pulled back there were rumors saying that the date will be moved to April 2008.. is this the same guy who is saying that there are 19K visas left?
The other thing I want to add is that many NIW applicants have got their GC through EB1. As far as I know, many Chinese NIW applicants published more papers during the waiting and upgraded to EB1. It's possible the real demand is smaller than our expectation. I agree that 20k SOFAD is the least number we can get next year.
Keep fingers crossed.
imdeng, qblogfan, Yes, me too not having any problems with any group or country. It is what it is, just knowing information helps in planning our lives and better prepared, as is the motto of this forum. qblogfan, I agree with your point about students from K, in my time at university, lots of graduate students almost equaling I were from K, and most of them took lot of smoke breaks below the library
Kanmani, the numbers are for I and C combined. Thanks to Spectator for having the base data compiled to allow further interpretations like this. I agree that C has much less demand and they would be in much better place if not for starvation due to backlogged I. So they may be in a forward date already next year before SO, but in SO season, as well all know, the assignment of visas is strictly in PD order, so I would like to say, they will be pegged at a same date as India, and hence, to make things simpler, I think the BTM will also be for a same date for I and C.
grnwtg, I agree with your thoughts. Even one of my friends recently married a citizen. And also other points you mentioned. Basically, people realize the problems and are trying to work their way around them. This is human behavior, to adapt and survive! My figures admittedly are on high side, but I like to be conservative. We may introduce one more factor into the final column, called hardship factor, maybe say a 0.9, and say the real figure is only 90% of the last column. That would make the 33k a 29.7k and added with porting, would equal the 35k approximated by qblogfan.
I also said my thoughts about people with Jan 1st 2008, getting GC for almost sure, while after that, EAD for sure, because of my feeling that next year, actual SOFAD might be less, because of various factors, like backlog reduction of EB1 & EB2 ROW, policy favoring EB5, economy being bit better than this year, Porting gaining a bit of a traction because of people having qualified due to side by side education or gaining in experience, people in EB1 and EB2 NIW learning from this year's scrutiny and being better prepared... and so on, more maybe thought. But a 20k SOFAD seems to be very certain inspite of all this, hence I thought until Jan 1st 2008, very good chance.
I think it is reliable. This guy/girl emailed Mr. CO and this information is from the email.
Last time the rumor about VB typo was a joke and nobody was serious about it.
Like a lot of us, s/he was hoping it was a typo when the August VB was out.
NO, somebody else dug out 19k.
I am not sure its reliable at all.It was way off mark with Aug prediction.It predicted massive movement in August.
Q,Spec,Veni and Teddy do a much better job here backed with solid data and stats.
Friends ... i wouldn't have quoted the chiense source had i not sensed some credibility. We will know better in September of course.
qbf why woud you say that? Next year EB1 and EB2ROW might come back roaring. Especially EB1? This year we received sofad not because the demand itself was low. But because that demand became backlogged in those 2 categories.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
EB1 demand was considerably low for fy2011, right? are you saying the 12k that CO announced in April was due to backlog not because of existing low demand and projecting low demand?
Just a Look at trackitt data for month of July '2011 - EB2 Approvals:
India: 176
China: 2
rest of world: 11
Total : 189
What would be the prediction for Cutoff date for September '2011 ?
Q, I will take your word on it. But I am wondering why Mr. CO will reply to any persons e-mail. If such was the case then any of us could open up that communication channel to know about potential movements. Am I missing something here?
Nishanth,imdeng, qblogfan, Yes, me too not having any problems with any group or country. It is what it is, just knowing information helps in planning our lives and better prepared, as is the motto of this forum. qblogfan, I agree with your point about students from K, in my time at university, lots of graduate students almost equaling I were from K, and most of them took lot of smoke breaks below the library
Kanmani, the numbers are for I and C combined. Thanks to Spectator for having the base data compiled to allow further interpretations like this. I agree that C has much less demand and they would be in much better place if not for starvation due to backlogged I. So they may be in a forward date already next year before SO, but in SO season, as well all know, the assignment of visas is strictly in PD order, so I would like to say, they will be pegged at a same date as India, and hence, to make things simpler, I think the BTM will also be for a same date for I and C.
grnwtg, I agree with your thoughts. Even one of my friends recently married a citizen. And also other points you mentioned. Basically, people realize the problems and are trying to work their way around them. This is human behavior, to adapt and survive! My figures admittedly are on high side, but I like to be conservative. We may introduce one more factor into the final column, called hardship factor, maybe say a 0.9, and say the real figure is only 90% of the last column. That would make the 33k a 29.7k and added with porting, would equal the 35k approximated by qblogfan.
I also said my thoughts about people with Jan 1st 2008, getting GC for almost sure, while after that, EAD for sure, because of my feeling that next year, actual SOFAD might be less, because of various factors, like backlog reduction of EB1 & EB2 ROW, policy favoring EB5, economy being bit better than this year, Porting gaining a bit of a traction because of people having qualified due to side by side education or gaining in experience, people in EB1 and EB2 NIW learning from this year's scrutiny and being better prepared... and so on, more maybe thought. But a 20k SOFAD seems to be very certain inspite of all this, hence I thought until Jan 1st 2008, very good chance.
Just curious if you have calculated any relation between trackit data whose 140 is approved and Priority date is between August'2007 to April'2008.
I see that there are around 450 India of this kind of cases and 50 From China. And i believe most of them did not filed I485
I am not sure how trackit data vs real data is related in past.
The fundamental demand at labor 140 level is not any lower. It was denied/choked at 485 level. The one that was denied doesn't come back in 2012 to EB1. It could still come back to EB2ROW. The one that was choked i.e. backlogged (~6-8K) will come back in EB1 itself.
My gut feel more than anything. Maybe other chinese people on this forum can explain better; the google translation is difficult but what i read told me they have a standing mechanism - a legal one - to get info from VO. And I think its something different that FOIA (freedom of information act) that you and I also have.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
What does it mean when you say "New employer needs to support AC21". They do provide a immigration verification letter that states all the criteria except for detailed job description. Is involvement of new employer really required other than providing immigration verification letter + detailed job description?
Thanks for your help in advance.
Interesting...
This sounds interesting...could have been the consequence of their court-case last year.
If some of our Chinese friends can confirm that would be great.
VO communicating with people had happened before, CO's emails that got posted on the forum looked authentic too. Only thorn for me is the 'several months' movement that was speculated for August-VB, that did not happen. It could have been a translation error too, because it did move more than a month forward?
I that should be all you need from employer. Just like 485 - AC21 is a form filed by candidate not by the employer. It is another matter some employers keep filing 485 and keep paying all EAD and 131 expenses.
Thank you Leo. I think that is probably right. Again if the chinese source himself could come here and help us understand that would be best. If not anybody else who may have insight is welcome to explain.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.
The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.
Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.
Thanks qblogfan!
I was under the impression that both the news is from same source. If that's not true, my whole premise falls apart. Actually, I want it fall apartThanks again!
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