EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar

i am as eager and would be doing as much dancing once i receive my cards...

[Monica12]

i am as eager and would as much dancing once i receive my cards...

LOL! I wonder how I would celebrate once I get mine........

[soggadu]

LOL! I wonder how I would celebrate once I get mine........

dont worry there would be someone singing "Monicaaaaaa" song for you lol...

[Monica12]

dont worry there would be someone singing "Monicaaaaaa" song for you lol...

Soggadu...You are cracking me up.......

[Monica12]

Q, Have you thought of how you are going to celebrate once you get greened ....

[soggadu]

Soggadu...You are cracking me up.......

remember it's friday... Ye Friday na milegi dubaara... (there would be another friday though)... glad someone is able to smile amidst all this... chiloooraama...

[soggadu]

Q, Have you thought of how you are going to celebrate once you get greened ....

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

[Monica12]

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

Soggadu, you are toooo... funny!
La..la.laaa.... It's Fryeeeeday..... (trying to break the tension...)

[grnwtg]

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

I also like to know how you are going to celebrate after getting GC...

[soggadu]

Thank you sir for the request.. i was about to do that..

damn you guys(sarcastic way)... people just started thinking i am funny and you want to remove those pages!!!!! remove them as needed... but make sure to acknowledge that i am funny...

[Monica12]

damn you guys(sarcastic way)... people just started thinking i am funny and you want to remove those pages!!!!! remove them as needed... but make sure to acknowledge that i am funny...

LOL ! I agree...

[soggadu]

LOL ! I agree...

thnx... anyway so long my friends...this GC mess cant stop me from watching Harry Puthar...bole toh first day first show... will definitely open a new thread posting the review ;-)...

[July2007PD]

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.




Kanmani all we have here is a blog. We don't have organizational structure to make it happen. Personally I don't think I have the skills and time to do advocacy. I know that I do have skills to bring clarity to GC process. But if a group emerges from this community that wants to do advocacy... I will sure support the group and follow the lead.


Leo I should say sorry. I didn't mean to criticize you. Just tried to say what I said, as a matter of fact. But probably it came out a bit strong.

[sjkumar]

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

That will be Prediction with Assumptions.

[qesehmk]

19K is total left. Of that how much comes to EB2IC is the question. The estimates are
3K - Jun 2011
5K - Jul 2011
8K - Aug 2011 + possible BTM

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

[pch053]

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

As Q mentioned in the earlier posts, 19K of visas will translate to 5K of spillovers (another calculation estimated around 8K spillovers) to EB2-I/C. So, if 5K spillovers are available, the dates should move to end of June/1st week of July (there are ~4,400 people for EB2-I/C with PDs between April 15 and June 30). If the spillover is greater than 5K, the dates will go well into July or maybe into or past Aug, if the number is 8K.

[tanu_75]

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

To get beyond July 2007, i.e to clear the inventory, after next month (assuming demand is cleared till mid April 2007), it'll need approximately 7.5k visas. However the new 485 apps (from PWMB + Porting) could eat into that mix.

[pch053]

I think some of the porting cases can consume a portion of the available spillovers but I doubt whether that many PWMB cases (most of PWMB cases will be on or after March-April'07) will be approved by the end of this year (in that case, it needs to be approved in less than 3 months which is a bit unlikely). I think PWMB cases will come into play much more in the coming year.

[whereismygclost]

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

[qesehmk]

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

[gchopeful123]

If this is indeed true, then it's a master stroke from CO. If there is BTM in Sep VB, then CO deserves honorary citizenship of India and China.

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

[Gclongwait]

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Thats precisely what I have been thinking. I just cant believe that the NVC fee notices were a random occurance. Also if you start mapping the dates then reported fee notices are till June 2008. It looks like there are enough visa numbers till July1 07 right now. That makes it almost exactly a 1 year fwd movement. Not just that if you start looking at next year Q1 2008 is kind of at the boundary where people in Mar 2008 may or may not get a visa. Taking applications till Q2 2008 will ensure that there will be more applicants than visas, and also they wont flood USCIS with more I485's than they can adjudicate in 9 months.

Just my optimistic thoughts on this. The only actual supporting arguments I have are the fee notices.

[Pdmar08]

Hahaha...savva rupaya, naral, shawl and Indian citizenship.[Rs.1.25, coconut, shawl(doh) and indian citizenship(dooohhh)]. i wonder how CO would look in that.
And for those who are wondering..no i m not back from happy hours...still at work.

If this is indeed true, then it's a master stroke from CO. If there is BTM in Sep VB, then CO deserves honorary citizenship of India and China.

[Pdmar08]

I pledge not to get my hopes of applying for AOS this year.

Thats precisely what I have been thinking. I just cant believe that the NVC fee notices were a random occurance. Also if you start mapping the dates then reported fee notices are till June 2008. It looks like there are enough visa numbers till July1 07 right now. That makes it almost exactly a 1 year fwd movement. Not just that if you start looking at next year Q1 2008 is kind of at the boundary where people in Mar 2008 may or may not get a visa. Taking applications till Q2 2008 will ensure that there will be more applicants than visas, and also they wont flood USCIS with more I485's than they can adjudicate in 9 months.

Just my optimistic thoughts on this. The only actual supporting arguments I have are the fee notices.

[veni001]

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Thats precisely what I have been thinking. I just cant believe that the NVC fee notices were a random occurance. Also if you start mapping the dates then reported fee notices are till June 2008. It looks like there are enough visa numbers till July1 07 right now. That makes it almost exactly a 1 year fwd movement. Not just that if you start looking at next year Q1 2008 is kind of at the boundary where people in Mar 2008 may or may not get a visa. Taking applications till Q2 2008 will ensure that there will be more applicants than visas, and also they wont flood USCIS with more I485's than they can adjudicate in 9 months.

Just my optimistic thoughts on this. The only actual supporting arguments I have are the fee notices.

Assuming that the information our friends (MITBBS) received through FOIA is accurate and NVC fee requests reported until few months back are legitimate and SOFAD available for September is at least equal to EB2CI pending inventory until July 2007 then ... there is strong possibility for BTM in Sept 2011 Bulletin.