EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[leo07]

I wasn't intending to pass a judgement on the source. I was "For" the news y'day and not so much after a good-night's sleep. Just stating my switched positions since y'day, as I recollect the past-breaking-news from the 'source'.

In all honesty, I want the source to be RIGHT and me wrong

I would wait until Sep to pass judgement on the source. DoS can't delay any move beyond September.

[soggadu]

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

yes you are right...her's was a 5 yr one... just wanted to make sure we wont have any problems traveling around...

[indiasunil]

Talked to a friend who got extension done in DC 2 months ago.
He was saying if you drop it off, you need to pick it up. If you mail it ,you need to add $20 for return mail. You can't drop it off and ask them to mail or the other way around.
But you can double check with the consulate(who never answer your call and voicemail is always full and hence cant leave a message).

My friend dropped it off and had to go back after a month to pick it, so its not a one day job. He would suggest you mail it in, as Baltimore to DC drive is pretty hectic during morning/evening rushhour. With the cost of gas, driving back and forth is not feasible unless you plan to tour DC. And more importantly, if it is early August, you'll miss atleast 2-3 pages of postings on this thread while you are driving -- using phone (to read this thread etc) while driving is strictly prohibited in MD and DC. There is a 2 hr free street parking just across the consulate building, you should be able to read the signs beforehand using Google street view

I have been to NY Consulate in person last week of January for Passport Renewal.. First of you have to know which zone/region you are.. For ex. OH, PA,NY, NJ address people should go to NY.

You can drop off your Passport and they will return passport by USPS Courier(by paying $20), within 10 business day you will receive surely. No need to go back again to collect unless you are willing to collect personally.

[TeddyKoochu]

There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the information has come out of a FOIA request.

ͬѧÃÇ£¬ÓÖÈ̲»×¡´òÁ˸öOµÄµç»°¡£ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
NIUÕþ¸®¹«¹Ø×é»ñÈ¡ÉóÅúÊý¾ÝÈ¡µÃ½øÕ¹ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. Another coincidence is 33K is the exact SOFAD that we calculated as well.

2) 19K more numbers available – This part is disputed, the FOIA request outcome says that 19K numbers are available post Aug. Most of the posters believe that 19K is available for September itself if this is true (Personally Iam not optimistic about it) then we could see another 8-10K SOFAD in September for EB2 I/C and this can easily push the dates to the Jul / Aug 2007 range. Realistically if these numbers are for Aug and Sep then we would see only 2-3K additional SOFAD which puts the dates between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

I wasn't intending to pass a judgement on the source. I was "For" the news y'day and not so much after a good-night's sleep. Just stating my switched positions since y'day, as I recollect the past-breaking-news from the 'source'.

In all honesty, I want the source to be RIGHT and me wrong

Me too Leo Iam also praying for the same I want the news to be correct and myself wrong personally for you and me that’s the olive branch of hope this year .

[qesehmk]

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

Here is a test I would propose to validate this claim.

If 19K is for August and Sept. then VO issued 121-52 = 70K for May Jun Jul. = 140% approvals in 3 months compared to first 7 months.

So will trackitt approvals for all EB categories for those 3 months be 140% of first 7 months? Lets see.

Kanmani all we have here is a blog. We don't have organizational structure to make it happen. Personally I don't think I have the skills and time to do advocacy. I know that I do have skills to bring clarity to GC process. But if a group emerges from this community that wants to do advocacy... I will sure support the group and follow the lead.

Yes shameful

Can we try ? Is it possible for us to get Visa information from USCIS at least next year ?

But , one request for info takes 6 months to get a reply from them . ( one person is waiting for his I-140 copy for 5+ months requesting via foia )

Leo I should say sorry. I didn't mean to criticize you. Just tried to say what I said, as a matter of fact. But probably it came out a bit strong.

I wasn't intending to pass a judgement on the source. I was "For" the news y'day and not so much after a good-night's sleep. Just stating my switched positions since y'day, as I recollect the past-breaking-news from the 'source'.

In all honesty, I want the source to be RIGHT and me wrong

[qesehmk]

Teddy

In the 33K you have calculated, I agree w the number. But additionally it should also include 5.6K for EB2IC normal allocation. Sincethat 5.6K would otherwise be burried in the normal rate of approval.

Overall, I think I have thought this through from multiple angles and made a very compelling case for more than 5K SOFAD for september bulletin. So now I am going to rest my pen on this topic unless there are questions directed at me.

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin.

[vishnu]

Q - it is SOO impressive that you are still working on calculations/predictions on behalf of all of us, despite having been greened. The commitment and selflesness is impressive!

[qesehmk]

well that's because .... its fryeeday, fryeeday. I started this out of selfish reasons but later on also enjoyed helping out people.

As per my GC ..... if everything goes well hopefull next month.

Q - it is SOO impressive that you are still working on calculations/predictions on behalf of all of us, despite having been greened. The commitment and selflesness is impressive!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

In the 33K you have calculated, I agree w the number. But additionally it should also include 5.6K for EB2IC normal allocation. Sincethat 5.6K would otherwise be burried in the normal rate of approval.

Overall, I think I have thought this through from multiple angles and made a very compelling case for more than 5K SOFAD for september bulletin. So now I am going to rest my pen on this topic unless there are questions directed at me.

Q the SOFAD value that I had is 33K that includes the regular I/C cap. I agree that 5K is almost sure even if this news is partially true. Your approaches are also flawless in their own right we all working on assumptions.

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

I just read your post after posting my summary understanding, this calculation looks quite good it definitely makes me veer towards 19K for September.

[gchopeful123]

Q & T,

In that case, is PD of Sep 2007 a possibility in the Sep 2011 VB - either with business as usual or with BTM?

Thanks

[kolugc]

True, I did not realize until you pointed this out. I am pretty new and wandering around for any piece of info and found this. Thanks H...

Thanks for the link K. Looks like the author of this blog is a regular reader amongst us . Whatever is written on his blog has been discussed here by the Guru's which cannot be co-incidence cause of the use of certain terms (ex: PWMB). Anyway, I guess this is another traffic routing gimmick. My 2 cents on this anyways!

[sswaitinggc]

Kanmani should it be like -> aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!! aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!!

aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!!

[whereismygclost]

gch, SFM is less likely. BTM is possible . Can someone please help me understand what SFM and BTM means? FYI, I looked at the header of the thread but couldn't find SFM or BTM? From the context these look like something related to new 485 intake ...

[qesehmk]

sorry header updated.

gch, SFM is less likely. BTM is possible . Can someone please help me understand what SFM and BTM means? FYI, I looked at the header of the thread but couldn't find SFM or BTM? From the context these look like something related to new 485 intake ...

[whereismygclost]

Thanks Q! That was FAST!

[iamdeb]

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

[suninphx]

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

Check on immihelp.com. You will find there all information you are looking for.

[soggadu]

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

hey deb...

http://www.indianembassy.org/index.p...content&id=167 this link has all the info, you can call or email them if any questions...

[soggadu]

Just for the heck of it... Why do they call it Green Card? We all need a break from predictions... take a break...

[Stemcell]

Just for the heck of it... Why do they call it Green Card? We all need a break from predictions... take a break...

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! "

[qesehmk]

Its like what does GNU stands for ? The answer is "GNU stands for GNU is not UNIX"

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! "

[soggadu]

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! "

i was thinking more on the lines of getting more greenery in the bank account... or might be environment friendly... damn every thing needs assumptions!!!!!!!

[Monica12]

i was thinking more on the lines of getting more greenery in the bank account... or might be environment friendly... damn every thing needs assumptions!!!!!!!

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar

[familyguy]

Me 2 love it.. its very funny... Stewie is awesome!!!

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar

[soggadu]

This is my first visit/post but I am sure several ppl who come to this site also strongly believe in other orgs who are sincerely working/advocating for the EB community.
We should focus here just on predictions and data analysis instead of taking a dig at others. If the latter happens, I doubt I personally am interested in coming here.

So all you want to say is concentrate on predictions right...dont worry dude...once we are into Aug first week we will be in full swing doing that... until then i recommend look into old posts and ask any questions... as you are already here.. just chill and know people around... not playing a good guy here, but can't see someone having a bad friday... chil and let chil...