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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #4226
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    I thought the 19k referred from FOIA might be of April 30th?
    Leo,

    At the moment, that is what concerns me as well. The Google Translation says:

    Sender: NIUNATIONAL (NIU), the letter area: EB23
    Title: NIU government relations group to obtain the approval letter stand progress data: BBS Unnamed Space Station (Thu Jul 14 11:47:42 2011, U.S. East)

    Government Relations Group ERIC JI through FOIA channels have access to employment-based immigration approval of FY 2011 data, in the first half ended April 30, approved a total payment of employment-based immigration quota of 52,475 a green card. Oppenheimer also public relations group of volunteers and the communication, as yesterday informed career has approved a quota of 121,000 green cards.
    NIU volunteers will be on data and analysis obtained from the first half of 2011 FOIA monthly approval data for further analysis, looking forward to their follow-up discussion and analysis
    That is a bit ambiguous. It can be taken to mean 121k as of 13 July, 2011 or it could be the figure as at the end of July.

    Since 14 July, 2011 post dates the August VB date of July 11, 2011, it is also possible that it includes visas allocated to August, but not actually used yet, since USCIS have not made the final approval.

    Without more explanation, I can't decide what the figures mean.

    Subsequent discussion in the thread seems to confirm equal confusion and I did not see a definitive answer. There were plenty of posts where they were discussing 19-20k over 2 months - in fact that seemed the general consensus.

    The second thread seems to start with the presumption that the full 19k are available in September, but that seems to be an assumption, rather than fact.
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-14-2011 at 08:52 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  2. #4227
    Quote Originally Posted by 28thJune2007 View Post
    Guys

    I tried using google translation to make sense of the mitbbs post. It mentioned something about extra CIS. Could anyone do correct translation (Maybe qblogfan can help us)......Thanks in advance
    Not too much info beyond the first post. I only half believe it on the claim that it is from a personal phone call with co.
    CIS is USCIS, I believe.

  3. #4228
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Leo,

    At the moment, that is what concerns me as well. The Google Translation says:



    That is a bit ambiguous. It can be taken to mean 121k as of 13 July, 2011 or it could be the figure as at the end of July.

    Since 14 July, 2011 post dates the August VB date of July 11, 2011, it is also possible that it includes visas allocated to August, but not actually used yet, since USCIS have not made the final approval.

    Without more explanation, I can't decide what the figures mean.

    Subsequent discussion in the thread seems to confirm equal confusion and I did not see a definitive answer. There were plenty of posts where they were discussing 19-20k over 2 months - in fact that seemed the general consensus.

    The second thread seems to start with the presumption that the full 19k are available in September, but that seems to be an assumption, rather than fact.
    Spec, I am on vacation on friday. On Monday, I will try to enlist help of a Chinese co-worker in company to translate this. Meanwhile, if any of you guys have a Chinese co-worker, just get help from them.

  4. #4229
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



    Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

    The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

    http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
    http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

    Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

    The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.
    The first link says the following:

    "19k could be for September. please get excited. he (inside connection in "0" aka USCIS office? ) says that in recent months, every month USCIS approves a few k more. Now we need to see how much is approved for July and August. The rest is for September.

    The key data in the second link are:

    "52,475 GC has been allocated by April 30th (CP not included)
    121,000 EB GC is approved by July 13th"

    BTW, wanted to say Hi to all. I have just registered today. It is a great forum.

  5. #4230
    Quote Originally Posted by myfr66 View Post
    The first link says the following:

    "19k could be for September. please get excited. he (inside connection in "0" aka USCIS office? ) says that in recent months, every month USCIS approves a few k more. Now we need to see how much is approved for July and August. The rest is for September.

    The key data in the second link are:

    "52,475 GC has been allocated by April 30th (CP not included)
    121,000 EB GC is approved by July 13th"

    BTW, wanted to say Hi to all. I have just registered today. It is a great forum.
    Actually the author mentioned that there is no end date associated with 121,000 number

  6. #4231
    myfr66 appreciate your help. Welcome to the forum!

    Somebody said to me that 121K is through August. That's why I mentioned 19K for september. 121K through august is believable because first half only allocated 52K. (although first half ended on Mar 31st rather than Apr 30th!!). At 52K for 6 months, 78K would be consumed in 9 months leaving 62K for Q3. If you take a third in each month then that gives you approx 20K. So 19K for September is in my opinion more logical.

    The reason why USCIS probably slowed down movement in August is probably to ensure that PWMBs don't file now. Probably USCIS wants to defer those case to 2012. Another piece of the same "THEORY" is that by making a small movement in August and having large visas available, they can justify a huge movement in September. But this one is just a theory. I have nothing to back it up.


    Quote Originally Posted by myfr66 View Post
    The first link says the following:

    "19k could be for September. please get excited. he (inside connection in "0" aka USCIS office? ) says that in recent months, every month USCIS approves a few k more. Now we need to see how much is approved for July and August. The rest is for September.

    The key data in the second link are:

    "52,475 GC has been allocated by April 30th (CP not included)
    121,000 EB GC is approved by July 13th"

    BTW, wanted to say Hi to all. I have just registered today. It is a great forum.
    Quote Originally Posted by myfr66 View Post
    Actually the author mentioned that there is no end date associated with 121,000 number
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #4232
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    The problem is the ambiguity of the statements. Without input from the person who actually talked to CO, It is probably unresolvable.

    Having slept on it, I think the more conservative interpretation is more likely.

    There is ambiguity even about the 52,475. In one breath it says the first half of the year, but then say it is to 30 April, which is 7 months.

    A low amount is not inconsistent. In that period, EB1 had low demand and no spillover had been allocated. Since then, to the end of July, a large amount of spillover has been released, so a big acceleration might be expected.

    After 10 months, we would expect a figure of 122k [((9 * 9) + (19 / 3))% * 140], so 121k is about the correct figure to the end of July.

    19k for 2 months is potentially not a huge amount to cover the EB1-EB5 normal run rate, so it would explain the relatively low amount of spillover released in the August VB. We have already surmised that 2.6k has been released for spillover in the August VB, so that leaves 16.4k to cover that normal run rate in August/September and any additional spillover in September.

    Any final amount can be released after observing actual demand.

    I don't think it alters the numbers we were talking about before the news.

    I think it is something we will not get unanimous agreement upon and only the September VB can resolve it.

    Until then, I will refrain from further comment on these figures.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  8. #4233
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.



    I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.
    Teddy,
    I140 receipts data does not support that, please see my response to Spec's post.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  9. #4234
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

    I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

    No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.
    These are some great thoughts, I believe we should have empathy and support all those who are in the legal immigration queue, waiting and waiting irrespective of which country or category we may belong to.

  10. #4235
    So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    myfr66 appreciate your help. Welcome to the forum!

    Somebody said to me that 121K is through August. That's why I mentioned 19K for september. 121K through august is believable because first half only allocated 52K. (although first half ended on Mar 31st rather than Apr 30th!!). At 52K for 6 months, 78K would be consumed in 9 months leaving 62K for Q3. If you take a third in each month then that gives you approx 20K. So 19K for September is in my opinion more logical.

    The reason why USCIS probably slowed down movement in August is probably to ensure that PWMBs don't file now. Probably USCIS wants to defer those case to 2012. Another piece of the same "THEORY" is that by making a small movement in August and having large visas available, they can justify a huge movement in September. But this one is just a theory. I have nothing to back it up.

  11. #4236
    Q!!
    So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?

  12. #4237
    Quote Originally Posted by kpt112107 View Post
    Q!!
    So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?
    Everybody's hopes are are raising again. We need little of this after disappointed last week. After seeing all the calculation i personally feel that it really difficult to predict as there are many assumptions.
    example: 2 months ago i thought 3-4 of my friends where telling that they already started porting process, but now some how they are asking me if there are chances of eb3I becoming current. Similary EB1 is in the same stage as they are not accepting everybody and we are not certain if investment visas spill over will be 5k or 8k ( huge difference now as July has over 3k pending).

    Out of all these Odds, one should appreciate Q, Veni,Spec, Teddy( and also qblogfan for bringing some news from our counterparts) for calculating almost right numbers. Let us hope there me atleast 3k to 5k number spill overs.

  13. #4238
    I request all immigrant community to sign this petition and ask all your friends and family members to sign and send emails to congress and President.
    Link to the petition: http://www.petition2congress.com/477...grants-in-usa/

    Thank you

  14. #4239
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

    I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

    No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.
    Its disheartining to listen when one says i am in virtual Jail ( My parents visa got rejected twice with out any reason couple of months back). I sincerely wish dates move to atleast 2009 and people get chance to file their I-485 and get chance to go to India/China.

  15. #4240
    I dont know my friend. Based on August Bulletin I would;ve said no. Based on the new information about what's used and left I feel decently optimistic.

    In terms of SFM (sustainable forward movement) - Dec 2007 is just not possible. In terms of BTM yes its possible. But I can't say with any confidence how much BTM if any at all will DoS undertake and when.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpt112107 View Post
    So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  16. #4241

    19K News From MITTBS

    Q - I believe that if the 19K is indeed available for September then at minimum EB2 I/C will receive 5K of SOFAD, it maybe even as high as 8K. Iam slightly more inclined towards Spec's guidance with my mind, but with my heart I would like to completely believe yours.

    Spec - Let’s assume 52,475 is for 7 months as indicated by Apr 30th, logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. There is definitely huge confusion where those 19K stand if they are September only then it’s great news (There are more postings supporting this version) but all calculations do correlate with the fact that they are probably Aug + Sep.

    Veni - Noted your response on the EB1 and EB2 ROW numbers they are at an unprecedented level any interpretation around them could be very significant.
    Friends to summarize only the September bulletin itself or additional information on mittbs can help clear this puzzle.

  17. #4242
    Even otherwise, i dont see INS leaving 19k cases to be approved in last month. This is not like a sales target they need to achieve to get bonus. There is almost 0% incentive for them to slog in the last month.

  18. #4243
    Teddy

    As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

    If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

    At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

    So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.


    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Q - I believe that if the 19K is indeed available for September then at minimum EB2 I/C will receive 5K of SOFAD, it maybe even as high as 8K. Iam slightly more inclined towards Spec's guidance with my mind, but with my heart I would like to completely believe yours.

    Spec - Let’s assume 52,475 is for 7 months as indicated by Apr 30th, logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. There is definitely huge confusion where those 19K stand if they are September only then it’s great news (There are more postings supporting this version) but all calculations do correlate with the fact that they are probably Aug + Sep.

    Veni - Noted your response on the EB1 and EB2 ROW numbers they are at an unprecedented level any interpretation around them could be very significant.
    Friends to summarize only the September bulletin itself or additional information on mittbs can help clear this puzzle.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  19. #4244
    qblogfan

    I hope you didnot mean that was your last post here.

    It's very fair if chinese friends think they are losing because of huge demand from India, that's true. Eventhough their demand is slightly over the annual quota, they have to be pegged with India numbers to see any further movement. I think for 2009/2010 and later PD Chinese have better chances to file 485 than Indian counterparts.

  20. #4245
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy

    As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

    If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

    At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

    So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.
    AMEN to "there could be even more upside to July"

  21. #4246
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy

    As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

    If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

    At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

    So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.
    Q I very sincerely hope that this model that you project is the correct one I agree with you that the 52K applied to 6 months or 7 months can yield different results. I have a question about CP, traditionally the consulates return their results in the last few months typically before the last VB so could it be that the CP approvals are not added, and this could deduct a good number out of the 19K.

  22. #4247
    52K was the number of all visas issued by DoS. So if CP is going to return some then that actually will be upside.



    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Q I very sincerely hope that this model that you project is the correct one I agree with you that the 52K applied to 6 months or 7 months can yield different results. I have a question about CP, traditionally the consulates return their results in the last few months typically before the last VB so could it be that the CP approvals are not added, and this could deduct a good number out of the 19K.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  23. #4248
    Not sure if somebody had posted this here before, did check couple of last pages and did not find it and so posting this here.

    I felt its a good read and reflects whats discussed here...

    EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?
    http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ect-in-fy.html

    I hope posting a link here is fine... If not please remove my post.

  24. #4249
    From MITBBS:

    (Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

    发信人: cnus (会飞的猪), 信区: EB23
    标 题: Re: 公布2011年前7个月审批数据具体情况
    发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 15 11:35:57 2011, 美东)

    这个121000到哪,我问了好几次了,比较明确是COVER他已经公布的8月排期。
    直接问19000是不是给9月的,两遍,不同角度,他就不愿意正面直接回答。


    【 在 mozhu (墨猪) 的大作中提到: 】
    : cnus我是菜鸟对你的计算有一个问题
    : 7.13后还剩19k明额
    : 这19k是要批完EB1和中国印度以外EB2后才会给EB2IC
    : 也就是2个半月的EB1和中国印度以外EB2
    : 根据你以下的计算(在二楼)一个月要7631用在EB1和中国印度以外EB2
    : 那两个半月7631*2.5=19078. 岂不正好是19k?
    : then nothing left?


    【 在 seansoon (商裔) 的大作中提到: 】
    : CNUS, thanks for the data.
    : There is a critical question about the 19K. O said :" As of July 13th,
    : there are 19k available..."
    : Does this 19k include EB2 Rest of the world, EB1 and Eb5 from July 13th
    to
    : September 30th? Because there is no "Pai Qi" for them. Could you clarify
    : this?
    : If this 19k does include those, then there would not be much left for
    EB2
    : CI.
    : Thanks

  25. #4250
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    52K was the number of all visas issued by DoS. So if CP is going to return some then that actually will be upside.

    Q

    Is this 52K number available somewhere on DOS/USCIS websites or solely based on MITBBS....thanks

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