EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Spec one would argue that in 2010 DoS zealously overcleared EB1 and EB2ROW. So of all the data points you provide I would rather look at teh May 2010 level and compare to Jun 2011 inventory. The delta is really Kazarian impact. The rest movement in SOFAD would be attributable to timing of USCIS and DoS processing.

Guys,

I have been looking a little more at this.

Here's a more detailed breakdown (correcting a small error I found).

- Inv Date ---- Total ---- EB2 ----- EB1

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,918 --- 5,950 --- 2,968
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964 --- 3,657 --- 2,307
27 May 2010 -- 14,138 --- 6,763 --- 7,375
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510 --- 9,915 --- 7,595
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388 --- 8,935 --- 8,453
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130 -- 10,142 --- 9,988

The Kazarian case was heard in March 2010, so the rise in numbers is post Kazarian.

Is it possible that the rise in pending EB2 cases represent NIW (which generally are also Exceptional Ability cases)?

It does seem possible that a final decision might have been postponed until the adjudicators received training on adjudicating EB1 and EB2-NIW after the decision.

Subsequent processing times seem to have increased substantially, which would also raise the figures.

I have never found any statistics as to what % of total EB2 approvals that NIW represent. I don't think that Trackitt necessarily provides reliable figures, but it suggests around 10% for ROW (excl. M-P).

Post Kazarian, NIW should also become more difficult and perhaps less people will therefore apply or get approved, just like EB1A and EB1B.

Just talking out loud to add to the discussion.

[Spectator]

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

Leo,

No problem.

My dates were based on how much SOFAD I think is remaining (30.5k used, 4k remaining for September). Even for me, there is the possibility that EB1/EB2/EB5 slow down slightly, releasing a bit more or the date is a week or two later to ensure no wastage.

We all, individually have our own estimates of how much SOFAD there will be and how many visas have been used to date.

It is not an exact science and it is natural that each of us will have a different result - some more pessimistic than others. Everybody needs to understand that.

Of course, if the August VB was a typo ............. Let's not go there!

[pch053]

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?

[qesehmk]

Nope .... if that was the situation they wouldn've have moved dates for August.

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

If you are projecting 22k sofad, entire 2007 should be getting gcs. trying to understand why did you say 80% for October PD

This is actually the worst case scenario I hope that it does not turn out to be true. Actually the entire SOFAD cannot be attributed towards forward movement from Aug the following demand is also going to be there a) 5-6K Preadjudicated cases b) 4K PWMB c) 6K porting this will constantly come by. So when it comes for actual GC approval these numbers will also count. We are now so used to 30K SOFAD that anything less will really hurt.

[Spectator]

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?

pch,

It has been noted by, (TK) I think, that the % of Trackitt cases is starting to vary for the period made Current per VB. i.e 100 Trackitt approvals represent a different number of "real" approvals in different months. This means that using the overall average % for last year may understate approvals.

In the FACTS & DATA section, I have already added a couple of extra columns to EB2-I (with explanations) to try to address this issue, but I don't know how successfully.

It might be worth checking out.

[TeddyKoochu]

Based on today's understanding - yes - unfortunately.

Most PWMB's are examples that even getting to 485 maybe difficult in the 4Yr timeframe, 5 years is pretty realistic.

[angryclubs]

can anyone try checking the status of their case on USCIS website? I keep getting the below error:

Validation Error(s)
You must correct the following error(s) before proceeding:
Login failed. Your User ID and/or Password are invalid.
Multiple duplicate SRs already exist for the customer

i know that there is nothing wrong with user id or password. why is the status website showing information about duplicate sr's ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

p.s. - I think Spec is still predicting a range larger than Teddy. Teddy has become a bit conservative. But all in all these are minor differences really. The fact is now the difference is really between gut feel and hope.

Guys firstly I agree that the movement in the Jul bulletin wa way beyond all expectations. However irrespective of whether the cases were actually approved or not due to sheer volume and NSC lagging behind TSC they are omitted from the August demand data. So DOS believes that USCIS will close them.

Now for the last month as Leo puts it the allocation ~ for EB2 ROW + EB1 maybe 5K, we may get a maximum of 2-3K out of that, I think EB5 was mainly burnt out in Jul, I won't be surprised if EB5 gave significantly less SOFAD this year.

Now coming to last year Jul-Aug-Sep was 7-6.5-5 so it was a gradual fall. This year it has been 11-2.5-TBD. This seriously weakens the chances of anything great happening in September. Also in terms of SOFAD we are around 30k which is already higher than last year even without the FB spillover. Now on Trackitt the EB2 ROW approvals are coming quite consistently I don't see very many EB1's though, but the inventory of Eb1 and Eb2 ROW is at an unprecedented level, as Spec advised these are just waiting for 485 approvals I think there will be huge pressure to approve these. With regards the point of keeping some SOFAD for those current I think when the dates have been moved forward there is almost like a 1-1 mapping of those who were current because the demand data was reduced almost matching he inventory.

We all had different calculations for SOFAD in my calculation I feel that only 2-3K is left so I am a bit conservative about te Sep bulletin.

Leo good luck I still have some hopes in my heart (mind disagrees completely) that we may just make it but it requires some wonder else its next year.

[Monica12]

can anyone try checking the status of their case on USCIS website? I keep getting the below error:

Validation Error(s)
You must correct the following error(s) before proceeding:
Login failed. Your User ID and/or Password are invalid.
Multiple duplicate SRs already exist for the customer

i know that there is nothing wrong with user id or password. why is the status website showing information about duplicate sr's ?

Angryclubs, my User ID and password is working fine. Did you open any SR's recently?

[TeddyKoochu]

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?

pch,

It has been noted by, (TK) I think, that the % of Trackitt cases is starting to vary for the period made Current per VB. i.e 100 Trackitt approvals represent a different number of "real" approvals in different months. This means that using the overall average % for last year may understate approvals.

In the FACTS & DATA section, I have already added a couple of extra columns to EB2-I (with explanations) to try to address this issue, but I don't know how successfully.

It might be worth checking out.

When I had checked Trackitt last time for those current in July the number of cases in Trackitt was half of those current in last July. This Jul 11K are current v/s 7K last Jul. This would roughly indicate that every approval is worth 3 times than last year, however what happens in reality is that a very large segment of people actually put their case only after approval, so this years Jul approvals will rise. On the bright side the demand data decrease of 11k kind of shows that every Jul 2011 case current will likely see an approval.

[Stemcell]

Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.



I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

Teddy, Q, Spec,Veni and others.
Thank you all for taking the time and answering individual questions. You all are really amazing !

[Monica12]

Guys firstly I agree that the movement in the Jul bulletin wa way beyond all expectations. However irrespective of whether the cases were actually approved or not due to sheer volume and NSC lagging behind TSC they are omitted from the August demand data. So DOS believes that USCIS will close them.

Now for the last month as Leo puts it the allocation ~ for EB2 ROW + EB1 maybe 5K, we may get a maximum of 2-3K out of that, I think EB5 was mainly burnt out in Jul, I won't be surprised if EB5 gave significantly less SOFAD this year.

Now coming to last year Jul-Aug-Sep was 7-6.5-5 so it was a gradual fall. This year it has been 11-2.5-TBD. This seriously weakens the chances of anything great happening in September. Also in terms of SOFAD we are around 30k which is already higher than last year even without the FB spillover. Now on Trackitt the EB2 ROW approvals are coming quite consistently I don't see very many EB1's though, but the inventory of Eb1 and Eb2 ROW is at an unprecedented level, as Spec advised these are just waiting for 485 approvals I think there will be huge pressure to approve these. With regards the point of keeping some SOFAD for those current I think when the dates have been moved forward there is almost like a 1-1 mapping of those who were current because the demand data was reduced almost matching he inventory.

We all had different calculations for SOFAD in my calculation I feel that only 2-3K is left so I am a bit conservative about te Sep bulletin.

Leo good luck I still have some hopes in my heart (mind disagrees completely) that we may just make it but it requires some wonder else its next year.

Great explaination Teddy, I too have a feeling that only 2-3 K might be left. Also, usually in Sep the dates move less than previous months.
BTW, great analysis Teddy, Q , Spec and others! KUDOS !!!!
So, according to the worst case scenerio, dates might move only till May 1, 2007 in Sep, that would be a 2 week movement. What are the chances of the dates moving less than 2 weeks/no movement in September?

[gcwait2007]

can anyone try checking the status of their case on USCIS website? I keep getting the below error:

Validation Error(s)
You must correct the following error(s) before proceeding:
Login failed. Your User ID and/or Password are invalid.
Multiple duplicate SRs already exist for the customer

i know that there is nothing wrong with user id or password. why is the status website showing information about duplicate sr's ?

Did you create multiple SRs?

[leo07]

Thanks T,S & Q: I see your points.
This is interesting, they are almost identical in terms of numbers flow w.r.t August 2010.
2010...7 & 6.5 & 5:
2011...11 & 2.5 & x:

25 days to go

Guys firstly I agree that the movement in the Jul bulletin wa way beyond all expectations. However irrespective of whether the cases were actually approved or not due to sheer volume and NSC lagging behind TSC they are omitted from the August demand data. So DOS believes that USCIS will close them.

Now for the last month as Leo puts it the allocation ~ for EB2 ROW + EB1 maybe 5K, we may get a maximum of 2-3K out of that, I think EB5 was mainly burnt out in Jul, I won't be surprised if EB5 gave significantly less SOFAD this year.

Now coming to last year Jul-Aug-Sep was 7-6.5-5 so it was a gradual fall. This year it has been 11-2.5-TBD. This seriously weakens the chances of anything great happening in September. Also in terms of SOFAD we are around 30k which is already higher than last year even without the FB spillover. Now on Trackitt the EB2 ROW approvals are coming quite consistently I don't see very many EB1's though, but the inventory of Eb1 and Eb2 ROW is at an unprecedented level, as Spec advised these are just waiting for 485 approvals I think there will be huge pressure to approve these. With regards the point of keeping some SOFAD for those current I think when the dates have been moved forward there is almost like a 1-1 mapping of those who were current because the demand data was reduced almost matching he inventory.

We all had different calculations for SOFAD in my calculation I feel that only 2-3K is left so I am a bit conservative about te Sep bulletin.

Leo good luck I still have some hopes in my heart (mind disagrees completely) that we may just make it but it requires some wonder else its next year.

[indiasunil]

Thanks TeddyK & Spec...
Thanks T,S & Q: I see your points.
This is interesting, they are almost identical in terms of numbers flow w.r.t August 2010.
2010...7 & 6.5 & 5:
2011...11 & 2.5 & x:

w.r.t Aug. 2010.. So the dates will move another 6 months ?? that means we can expect dates somewhere in March 2008.

Thanks.

[tanu_75]

Thanks T,S & Q: I see your points.
This is interesting, they are almost identical in terms of numbers flow w.r.t August 2010.
2010...7 & 6.5 & 5:
2011...11 & 2.5 & x:

25 days to go

Nice pick Leo. Maybe its internal policy perhaps to keep 5k then for the last month?? We'll know soon I guess.

[angryclubs]

I spoke with Level 2 io yesterday. He opened an SR without asking me. That's about it. What I really do not get is what does an SR have anything to do with getting logon denied for checking the status of a case.
Q, I know this is a thread for predictions/calculations. If you think my posts are taking the focus away please feel free to delete them.

[Monica12]

I spoke with Level 2 io yesterday. He opened an SR without asking me. That's about it. What I really do not get is what does an SR have anything to do with getting logon denied for checking the status of a case.
Q, I know this is a thread for predictions/calculations. If you think my posts are taking the focus away please feel free to delete them.

Yes, I agree. An SR shouldn't prevent you from logging in. I too had opened an SR last week but don't have a problem logging in. Maybe if you check tomorrow again, it should be fine ?

[qesehmk]

You are good. No worries. Right now we are small enough and tightly knit that it makes more sense to discuss everything under one thread. We can always pull relevant posts and create special threads so that offline readers can read only.

p.s. - I just love your Avatar!

I spoke with Level 2 io yesterday. He opened an SR without asking me. That's about it. What I really do not get is what does an SR have anything to do with getting logon denied for checking the status of a case.
Q, I know this is a thread for predictions/calculations. If you think my posts are taking the focus away please feel free to delete them.

[sandeep11]

Friends you all are doing a great job by maintaining the sanctitiy of this forum.

Q, Spec, Teddy and all other contributors thanks for your time a patience. Believe me this forum turned out to be a kind of addiction for me for the last few days. I inadvertantly go into the forum and check if there are any positive updates almost every hour or so.

We all are waiting for our turn to be greened and the wait is frustrating for few. It is the same with me too (PD 11/2007). Infact this frustration is so bad to few that I have personally seen two of my collegues disappointed and leave office the day VB was released.

You guys keep up the good work and good luck to you all.

[qesehmk]

Sandeep, glad you found and liked this forum. Felt sad about your colleagues' frustration. There are so many others who are also frustrated. Clarity about GC process and backlogs will reduce the frustration to a good degree. But I think (and I dont claim to have mastered this) the real way to keep frustration out is to keep doing things that you really are passionate about. Not having GC certainly creates some significant barriers. But if one at least keeps working on things that are under one's control, the frustration wouldn't be as consuming.

Friends you all are doing a great job by maintaining the sanctitiy of this forum.

Q, Spec, Teddy and all other contributors thanks for your time a patience. Believe me this forum turned out to be a kind of addiction for me for the last few days. I inadvertantly go into the forum and check if there are any positive updates almost every hour or so.

We all are waiting for our turn to be greened and the wait is frustrating for few. It is the same with me too (PD 11/2007). Infact this frustration is so bad to few that I have personally seen two of my collegues disappointed and leave office the day VB was released.

You guys keep up the good work and good luck to you all.

[03May07]

25 days to go

Leo, you are starting it again.. / (5 members and 46 guests as of now.-rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../

I thought I was good at Math and calculations...somehow dont understand the number crunching that everyone is doing...helpless to the forum..Thanks to everyone who is involved in calculations...keep it going.

BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07

[Monica12]

Leo, you are starting it again.. / (5 members and 46 guests as of now.-rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../

I thought I was good at Math and calculations...somehow dont understand the number crunching that everyone is doing...helpless to the forum..Thanks to everyone who is involved in calculations...keep it going.

BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07

Ha.. sorry, I might have been one of those who mentioned that date. Guilty !!!
I was very optmistic about the Aug VB and had my hopes dashed, so was trying to play it down this time.I sincerely hope, it moves a couple of months atleast in Sep and we all get greened soon
25 days to go....

[nishant2200]

Leo, you are starting it again.. / (5 members and 46 guests as of now.-rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../

I thought I was good at Math and calculations...somehow dont understand the number crunching that everyone is doing...helpless to the forum..Thanks to everyone who is involved in calculations...keep it going.

BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07

I am already eternally here, refreshing every few so often. My own mind internally I was saying, countdown begins, until the next 10th of August. As the D-day comes, my sleeplessness will rise exponentially.

Man proposes, God disposes. However much we may calculate and analyse, CO has the power to dispose all of us in one shot!