EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

Teddy

If you are projecting 22k sofad, entire 2007 should be getting gcs. trying to understand why did you say 80% for October PD

[bieber]

Kanmani

JJ for jayalalitha?

[qesehmk]

Spec / Teddy,

Absolutely. That's why I say that what's been a good news is going to turn into a pain next year. However if you notice there is a silver lining to EB1. The quota is 40K, the inventory as of June is 10K. And the projected spillover is 15K-20K implying that the full year demand was around 30-35K which is certainly less than prior years. So in other words, the kazarian memo has not only resulted in delays in approvals of the cases filed but has also discouraged filing of EB1 cases to a very significant extent.

The EB2-ROWMP picture is a bit unclear to me since there SOFAD is not that clear until September is behind us. But as of now it seems ROWMP EB2 was unaffected YoY. Which is why the FA from them will be adjusted down by approx portion of 10K FB spillover last year.

So what it means for next year is that the worst case SOFAD will be as follows:

1. EB5 (6-7K).
2. EB1 (0 - (-2K))
3. EB2 ROW (3-5K)
4. EB2IC (5.6K)
------------------
Total (14K average).

So even in worst case EB2IC should positively reach a level where they have to take fresh applications in. The best case however could be that the kazarian situation contines to haunt EB1. There is not much wrong with EB2ROWMP really since 10K of Jun Inventory this year is only 3-4K higher than equivalent last year. So the real moving piece will come from EB1 as far as next year is concerned. The upside to 14K would be then 15-20K just like this year. So one can do the math and say the date could move between Aug 2007-Q1 2008 in FY 2012 (as far as SFM is concerned). The BTM is still in play at DoS' mercy.

Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.



I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

Spec,

This is my main question. Lets say all the pending applications for EB1 and EB2ROW are approved in 2012, will there be any spillover left for EB2IC for 2012 ?
Looks like with PD of October 07 i missed out this year but i want to know where i stand next year ....
Thanks again.

[vizcard]

so does that mean an Aug 08 PD is in doubt for FY12 without a BTM ?

[qesehmk]

Based on today's understanding - yes - unfortunately.

so does that mean an Aug 08 PD is in doubt for FY12 without a BTM ?

[nishant2200]

perspective. I think more than 300k visa numbers wasted due to in-efficiency in years before last few years, and of course, they don't roll over. This is part of the visa re-capture proposal, that as we all know, is having bleak future. And here we are in situation where even 5k visas can make someone's dreams come true!

[ssvp22]

Based on today's understanding - yes - unfortunately.

Wooow. That's real bad. Looks like 4 year GC thumb rule is turning out be 6 years now.

[neospeed]

perspective. I think more than 300k visa numbers wasted due to in-efficiency in years before last few years, and of course, they don't roll over. This is part of the visa re-capture proposal, that as we all know, is having bleak future. And here we are in situation where even 5k visas can make someone's dreams come true!

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show

I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

[leo07]

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

[ssvp22]

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show
I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

Given the fact that we are non-citizens, does voting on the bill really help?

[qesehmk]

Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

p.s. - I think Spec is still predicting a range larger than Teddy. Teddy has become a bit conservative. But all in all these are minor differences really. The fact is now the difference is really between gut feel and hope.

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there is at least 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together will be left to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

[kolugc]

I was really excited when I read/learned about the June 2008 NVC (my PD is June 9, 2008).... And so was sure I will get the chance apply for 485 before 2012 May-June. I also read some where that the NVC is is only valid for one year. But now with what we know it does not look realistic. So the NVC funda is not the right assumption I guess. Do you guys agree?

[nishant2200]

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show

I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

Done. the website itself is like a real democratic dream come true. I glossed over the bill text too. At least someone paid a thought.

[soggadu]

Spec / Teddy,

Absolutely. That's why I say that what's been a good news is going to turn into a pain next year. However if you notice there is a silver lining to EB1. The quota is 40K, the inventory as of June is 10K. And the projected spillover is 15K-20K implying that the full year demand was around 30-35K which is certainly less than prior years. So in other words, the kazarian memo has not only resulted in delays in approvals of the cases filed but has also discouraged filing of EB1 cases to a very significant extent.

The EB2-ROWMP picture is a bit unclear to me since there SOFAD is not that clear until September is behind us. But as of now it seems ROWMP EB2 was unaffected YoY. Which is why the FA from them will be adjusted down by approx portion of 10K FB spillover last year.

So what it means for next year is that the worst case SOFAD will be as follows:

1. EB5 (6-7K).
2. EB1 (0 - (-2K))
3. EB2 ROW (3-5K)
4. EB2IC (5.6K)
------------------
Total (14K average).

So even in worst case EB2IC should positively reach a level where they have to take fresh applications in. The best case however could be that the kazarian situation contines to haunt EB1. There is not much wrong with EB2ROWMP really since 10K of Jun Inventory this year is only 3-4K higher than equivalent last year. So the real moving piece will come from EB1 as far as next year is concerned. The upside to 14K would be then 15-20K just like this year. So one can do the math and say the date could move between Aug 2007-Q1 2008 in FY 2012 (as far as SFM is concerned). The BTM is still in play at DoS' mercy.

Thank you for the detailed analysis... i guess i just became too optimistic as dates started moving before spilover season this year. But now i am back and agree that PD Oct 07 have to wait till next year...

[neospeed]

Given the fact that we are non-citizens, does voting on the bill really help?

Just a public opinion. Nothing to do if you are citizen or not. If they see more votes, atleast be considered to go thru the commitee.

[ssvp22]

I was really excited when I read/learned about the June 2008 NVC (my PD is June 9, 2008).... And so was sure I will get the chance apply for 485 before 2012 May-June. I also read some where that the NVC is is only valid for one year. But now with what we know it does not look realistic. So the NVC funda is not the right assumption I guess. Do you guys agree?

I think Spec or someone commented earlier that NVC fee does not really expire. If that is true, the complete theory collapses

[ssvp22]

Just a public opinion. Nothing to do if you are citizen or not. If they see more votes, atleast be considered to go thru the commitee.

okay. I will vote anyway

[nishant2200]

Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

Q, I also think one simple reason might be they don't have any mechanism to have "sorted" queue distribution to their officers. It seems to me that whatever files the officer lays hands on, they win. The last bulletin may have been a move to "throttle" the assignments. I think 2 months is also otherwise enough for a clear lucky case of a PWMB or a dependent to go through.

I don't think they have a process where they can say that although I have opened the gate to certain date, only people with some other date priori to this one will be considered. They kind of try to say that saying visas will be assigned from SO in order of PD, but I think they don't have a process to verify/enforce it, except having careful movement in the bulletins.

[qblogfan]

I checked the trackitt data and analyzed it by approval date. I analyzed the June and July approval data.

I found totally 8% of the total approvals are EB2 ROW and EB1 from July1st to July 13th.

Totally 17% of the total approvals are EB2 ROW and EB1 in June.

I think EB1 and EB2 are still being approved, but at a slow speed.

Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

[nishant2200]

I think Spec or someone commented earlier that NVC fee does not really expire. If that is true, the complete theory collapses

The fee, once paid, is valid forever. But you have to pay fee within one year from the notice date, else your case is considered abandoned. Unless of course, the applicant is able to change his intent from CP to AOS if possible for his situation.

[qblogfan]

I agree with your analysis.

I think 4k-7k is a reasonable estimation.

My personal estimation is 5k-10k spillover should be expected in September.

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

[druvraj]

Q what is your feeling about Feb 2008 in 2012?

[Spectator]

Guys,

I have been looking a little more at this.

Here's a more detailed breakdown (correcting a small error I found).

- Inv Date ---- Total ---- EB2 ----- EB1

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,918 --- 5,950 --- 2,968
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964 --- 3,657 --- 2,307
27 May 2010 -- 14,138 --- 6,763 --- 7,375
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510 --- 9,915 --- 7,595
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388 --- 8,935 --- 8,453
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130 -- 10,142 --- 9,988

The Kazarian case was heard in March 2010, so the rise in numbers is post Kazarian.

Is it possible that the rise in pending EB2 cases represent NIW (which generally are also Exceptional Ability cases)?

It does seem possible that a final decision might have been postponed until the adjudicators received training on adjudicating EB1 and EB2-NIW after the decision.

Subsequent processing times seem to have increased substantially, which would also raise the figures.

I have never found any statistics as to what % of total EB2 approvals that NIW represent. I don't think that Trackitt necessarily provides reliable figures, but it suggests around 10% for ROW (excl. M-P).

Post Kazarian, NIW should also become more difficult and perhaps less people will therefore apply or get approved, just like EB1A and EB1B.

Just talking out loud to add to the discussion.

[SChowdary]

So if its a 4 - 7 k estimate it would atleast move to end of June, which would be the estimated movement that you had before the bulletin came out....

[qesehmk]

neospeed thanks. I voted and would encourage everybody to vote too.

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show
I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

nishant yes they don't have a strict FIFO. They have gained high level control but at micro level of course this certainly seems quite random.

Q, I also think one simple reason might be they don't have any mechanism to have "sorted" queue distribution to their officers. It seems to me that whatever files the officer lays hands on, they win. The last bulletin may have been a move to "throttle" the assignments. I think 2 months is also otherwise enough for a clear lucky case of a PWMB or a dependent to go through.

I don't think they have a process where they can say that although I have opened the gate to certain date, only people with some other date priori to this one will be considered. They kind of try to say that saying visas will be assigned from SO in order of PD, but I think they don't have a process to verify/enforce it, except having careful movement in the bulletins.

qblogfan one caution with trackitt data. For certain categories for certain months the data becomes so thin that I do not dare to come to any conclusion. So I ALWAYS ALWAYS look at teh cumulative data to overcome this shortcoming.

I think EB1 and EB2 are still being approved, but at a slow speed.