EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

I have slightly different view point. Majority of us believe that Eb2/EB3 ratio post 2007 is ~70/30. If you add 6K of porting..are we saying ~90% of applicants will be in EB2? That sounds unrealistic to me.

Suninphx, actually post July 2007 most people are applying in EB2 anyway. Most of the 6K will come from years 2003, 2004 and 2005 as people realize that they will have an eternal wait. Personally I know many people who are waking upto this reality all of them have 10+ years of experience many of them were just stuck with the current employer. Most of the folks are pushing the current employer or switching jobs for GC now. Only perm takes a while I140 can be done fairly quickly. Now in 2012 the disparity between EB2 and EB3 becomes more theoretically everyone who filed in 2005 has 5 years of additional experience from the initial EB3 filing. So porting most likely will be easily be sustained at the 6K level.

[Spectator]

Last year sept 2010 vb got around 5k eb2 I/C movement. I hope we will have the same movement in the coming vb. They might dump all the unused number in the coming vb in order not to waste any single one this time (heard last year they wasted around 600, which translates to one week movement (: )

Theoretical Spillover for EB2 in FY was 20,524 and Spillover used was 20,434 , so only 90 visas were wasted in EB2.

In EB3, 657 visas were wasted.

EB4 received 351 more visas than the allocation.

[pdmay2008]

Suninphx, actually post July 2007 most people are applying in EB2 anyway. Most of the 6K will come from years 2003, 2004 and 2005 as people realize that they will have an eternal wait. Personally I know many people who are waking upto this reality all of them have 10+ years of experience many of them were just stuck with the current employer. Most of the folks are pushing the current employer or switching jobs for GC now. Only perm takes a while I140 can be done fairly quickly. Now in 2012 the disparity between EB2 and EB3 becomes more theoretically everyone who filed in 2005 has 5 years of additional experience from the initial EB3 filing. So porting most likely will be easily be sustained at the 6K level.

Here are the scenarios I can think of:

1. EB3 Priority Date Before July 2007 : Most of them were not eligible for EB2 due to Bachelors + 5 Year experience requirement. Now most of them who got 5 + Year experience are going to port even though they have EAD/AP. Just to get out of this mess as soon as possible.

2. EB3 Priority Date Before July 2008 : Some of them got 5 + years experience now and also with too much scrutiny in H1B extensions, they want to get ready for next spill over and atleast get EAD/AP (They do not want to become PWMB)

3. EB3 Priority Date After July 2008 : Most of them switching jobs as they still not exceeded their H1B 6 year limit. Trying to find employers who can sponsor them under EB2 so that they can port.

Keep adding if you think of any other scenarios.

[tiger_of_web]

Just having EAD/AP is not a reason to have less porting prior to 2007. With EAD, one can make a switch to same or similar job. Most people are moving up the value chain and find it useless to use the role created 7/8 years in past to switch today. Hence, there is a double benefit for those who want to upgrade. Better position and also port to EB2. I think this is the single most important driving factor for upgrading.

I have also heard that upgrade in the same company different position is hard to come by these days. CIS is asking for proper justifications and also questioning whether the old position will be filled. That leaves the option of changing employers and filing for a new position. In this economy, such a option is also not easy. I know many people in EB3 beyond 2007 who are wondering if upgrade is the way to go. From what i have seen, most consulting companies always file in Eb3 whatever your qualification and experience is.

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

[Spectator]

A quick and dirty calculation.

If in FY2012, 7.5% of EB3-I with PD of 2003 to July 2007 ported, that would be approx 3,750 cases. 7.5% is slightly less than the possible FY2011 figure, but higher than the FY2010 derived figure.

If we say that EB3 cases waiting to file between the backlog and mid 2008 is 9,000 cases and that 5% of those port, then that is an additional 450 cases.

In total, that is 4,200 cases, so for the moment I will set my maximum at 5,000.

To reach 6k would need a flat rate of around 10.2%. That is not impossible, but is beyond my current comfort level.

For context, my assumed figure for FY2011 is 4.5k rather than 6k.

Perhaps I am saying the same as Teddy, that the numbers will be relatively unchanged - we only differ on what that number is.

[ssvp22]

While we are at it, there are 86800 pending EB3 485s prior to Jan 1 2007. By year end, all the 86k cases will have 5+ years of experience on paper be elegible for filing EB2. Now, how many of them really switch, time will tell. Basic math says 10% switch can result in 9k porting. However, most likelihood of porting is for years 2003, 2004, 2005 since those people already have the required experience and motivation(priority date, frustration, move up, get out, have a life....) to port. Total for these 3 years is 34k cases. If 20% of these port, thats 7k cases.

[familyguy]

Even thought they have 5+ years of experience, not every one will have a 4 year degree, so they are NOT eligible for Eb2....

While we are at it, there are 86800 pending EB3 485s prior to Jan 1 2007. By year end, all the 86k cases will have 5+ years of experience on paper be elegible for filing EB2. Now, how many of them really switch, time will tell. Basic math says 10% switch can result in 9k porting. However, most likelihood of porting is for years 2003, 2004, 2005 since those people already have the required experience and motivation(priority date, frustration, move up, get out, have a life....) to port. Total for these 3 years is 34k cases. If 20% of these port, thats 7k cases.

[bieber]

How about chances of spillover to EB3 (due to non-pro active measure from DOS/CIS) causing demotivation for porting

[kd2008]

not even 1/3rd of H1b quota is used in this year, filing new h1s, getting extensions are really not smoother now, this should be a leading indicator for porting and EB1C demand

Excellent point, B. I wouldn't be concerned about H1B quota usage. It doesn't matter if the quota is consumed on day 1 or day 365 as long as it is consumed. I still feel that quota will be exhausted by Feb 2012. Getting extensions has been problematic in some cases for sure.

[qesehmk]

Here are two counter arguments to EB3 portings increase in 2012:

1. Even if one accumulates experience - the sponsors still have to go through teh hassle of sponsoring a second green card. (that's what a porting is).
2. The universe of EB3 is pretty much closed. The ones that were easy to convert and / or people in good positions to bargain a second GC already have done it so far. Now the ones remaining are the ones that are pretty much stuck. Forget everybody i know personally people from the most premier institutes in India having stuck in stupid jobs. Life is not fair. But that's what it is.

So unfortunately while the level frustration in EB3 will grow exponentially, in 2012 we will see portings at most equal to 2011. My belief is that in 2011 there were not mor ethan 3-4K portings.

[ssvp22]

Now the ones remaining are the ones that are pretty much stuck.

Or the lazy ones are left behind. I personally know few who will never port unless they loose the current job. They are happy with 9-5+paycheck

[Stemcell]

Or the lazy ones are left behind. I personally know few who will never port unless they loose the current job. They are happy with 9-5+paycheck

Lazy is probably a strong word to use.
Always its the Risk Vs Benefits before you consider anything. Also most folks have families, kids in school, owning homes, social circle. Needing to change all that is a huge deal and should not be interpreted as lazy IMHO.

[nishant2200]

I slept for 11 hours yesterday. And today morning, again following the aftermath

The discussion about portings, I think to be on conservative side, I would go with the 6k figure.

It is my belief that as the economy improves, there will be more people in EB1 and EB2 ROW, as well as EB5 will have more interest due to government will behind it as well as more bang for the buck being shown by economy. FB will also be dried out in terms of spillover, as people will not abandon their number and show up. And also as things improve, there maybe more willingness in organizations to take up people needing EB2 GC. So yes, this year and the next year are really important in terms of movement. This year, SOFAD was huge, but the months it had to travel were "fat", and hence time wise, the movement has not been even a year by now, but quantity wise, huge.

The economy is giving mixed signals, I am not an expert, but I don't see huge improvements for the next one year.

Apart from points already mentioned, most simple reason is, changing job is a hassle. Most people are quite senior by now who are in EB3 2002 to 2007, and many of them have working spouses because of EAD, they have houses, children going to school. It's not a split second decision for them. The EAD led to lot of life decisions being taken, which might also act as a hindrance in this life decision of job.

so on different topic, in last few months, I was wanting to start write a children's book. This is the first line of it, dedicated to my daughter.

"Stupefied by the constant bumbling of beings and life's very marshes, I many times thought of a very bothersome question. Why, why when the life is finite, and end unknown, such a quarrel to obtain the most neediest of things, and greed to grab the not so ones. I really could not figure it out, but found happiness in thinking about you, my daughter, and knowing that, life may end one day, but it sure would give me an endless beginning by your coming."

[qesehmk]

Yes. Absolutely. Most of the backlogged EB-I are not in their 20s anymore. Family and kids certainly creates restrictions and people tend to play it safe.

Lazy is probably a strong word to use.
Always its the Risk Vs Benefits before you consider anything. Also most folks have families, kids in school, owning homes, social circle. Needing to change all that is a huge deal and should not be interpreted as lazy IMHO.

[immitrickz]

I slept for 11 hours yesterday. And today morning, again following the aftermath

The discussion about portings, I think to be on conservative side, I would go with the 6k figure.

It is my belief that as the economy improves, there will be more people in EB1 and EB2 ROW, as well as EB5 will have more interest due to government will behind it as well as more bang for the buck being shown by economy. FB will also be dried out in terms of spillover, as people will not abandon their number and show up. And also as things improve, there maybe more willingness in organizations to take up people needing EB2 GC. So yes, this year and the next year are really important in terms of movement. This year, SOFAD was huge, but the months it had to travel were "fat", and hence time wise, the movement has not been even a year by now, but quantity wise, huge.

The economy is giving mixed signals, I am not an expert, but I don't see huge improvements for the next one year.

Apart from points already mentioned, most simple reason is, changing job is a hassle. Most people are quite senior by now who are in EB3 2002 to 2007, and many of them have working spouses because of EAD, they have houses, children going to school. It's not a split second decision for them. The EAD led to lot of life decisions being taken, which might also act as a hindrance in this life decision of job.

so on different topic, in last few months, I was wanting to start write a children's book. This is the first line of it, dedicated to my daughter.

"Stupefied by the constant bumbling of beings and life's very marshes, I many times thought of a very bothersome question. Why, why when the life is finite, and end unknown, such a quarrel to obtain the most neediest of things, and greed to grab the not so ones. I really could not figure it out, but found happiness in thinking about you, my daughter, and knowing that, life may end one day, but it sure would give me an endless beginning by your coming."

I am no expert on children books - but that's a very heavy duty stuff for a child to comprehend. My 2 cents

[nishant2200]

I am no expert on children books - but that's a very heavy duty stuff for a child to comprehend. My 2 cents

that's a sound advice. Rest of the stuff is simple. I will move it to the preface , dedications kind of section

[Stemcell]

Yes. Absolutely. Most of the backlogged EB-I are not in their 20s anymore. Family and kids certainly creates restrictions and people tend to play it safe.

Just like Vishy Anand who in his 20's would play super sharp like the sicilian dragon but now prefers Queens's gambit Lasker variation to be safe....if anyone is into chess.

[qesehmk]

In a few more years he will move to golf and later to angrybirds

Just like Vishy Anand who in his 20's would play super sharp like the sicilian dragon but now prefers Queens's gambit Lasker variation to be safe....if anyone is into chess.

[Stemcell]

In a few more years he will move to golf and later to angrybirds

Q,
You seem to like angry birds.... i just cant stand its music.....my kids think differently which is another story.
Check out World of Goo.

[nishant2200]

I spent last half an hour trying out various avatars, editing in Paint, uploading, trying. I can now understand why my wife likes to spend hours in the trial room in mall.

I wanted N, but it's taken. So I went with Snoopy!

[Spectator]

I spent last half an hour trying out various avatars, editing in Paint, uploading, trying. I can now understand why my wife likes to spend hours in the trial room in mall.

I wanted N, but it's taken. So I went with Snoopy!

I slept for 11 hours yesterday. And today morning, again following the aftermath

nishant,

Perhaps your should be ZZZ.

[gcq]

I would recommend everyone to take their personal situation out of predictions and calculations. What I am seeing is (apart from Q, T, S etc) , people tend to paint a rosy picture for themselves. That is when predictions turn into speculations.

I had observed VDL Rao's predictions for a while. Initially his approach was based on facts. Then everybody including Rao himself turned overly optimistic and his predictions didn't reflect reality anymore. Keep emotions or personal situations out when predicting and making assumptions.

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36144

updated processing times. I -140 are severely backlogged (:.

[PlainSpeak]

It seems like a waste of time worrying about porting numbers. EB3 I people who can port will port and those who cannot will not port. Porting depends on mutiple variables some of which are 4 years degree, economy, job being EB2, company willing to do EB2, family stability w.r.t. move to a different city for EB2 offer and a whole bunch of other variables. The variables are so many that is not possible to accurately predict porting numbers. All that can be done is using confirmed numbers from past demand data and making predictions for future which by definition is a prediction and not hard numbers. Unlike in the past we do get demand data for each month which can be used to come up with confirmed numbers.

[ssvp22]

It seems like a waste of time worrying about porting numbers. EB3 I people who can port will port and those who cannot will not port. Porting depends on mutiple variables some of which are 4 years degree, economy, job being EB2, company willing to do EB2, family stability w.r.t. move to a different city for EB2 offer and a whole bunch of other variables. The variables are so many that is not possible to accurately predict porting numbers. All that can be done is use confirmed numbers from past demand data and make predictions for future which by definition is a prediction and not hard numbers. Unlike in teh past we do get demand data for each month which can be used to come up with confirmed numbers.

Completely agree with this.