EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[indiasunil]

So what is your expectation based on above PERM data matrix for next bulletin. For me based on analysis it will go till Aug 2007 or March 2008 in Sep/Oct Bulletin.

[natvyas]

I guess it would be somewhere in 2008 (Jan, Mar or maybe Jun 08)

[qesehmk]

Same here. With Oct 12 2007, this VB is depressing for me and if there is no hope for until next May / June 2012, I better leave my current job. I don't want to get stuck for next year and a half at the same place.
Gurus, please through some light on what options , we have at this time to change job and still be able to get back in line by 2nd qtr next year. Is it feasible thing to do?

It depends on how much frustrated you are. Obviously there is some time lost and who knows how fast the next company might act and how fast your labor may get trhoguh etc etc. Waiting at least through mid sep would be prudent so that you know whether oct 2007 will be reached at all at least through Oct 2011.

Here is my take on the situation-

1) With SOFAD numbers still available USCIS chose to move the dates only by about a month---- this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage. In April CO announced 12K additional visas from EB1 however USCIS moved the dates only by 5 weeks in the next bulletin.

2) The CO does have visas available in his back pocket ---- this will allow them to move dates ahead in Sep bulletin since on paper he can show the supply is more than the demand till this point (demand = documentarily qualified).

3) the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Please feel free to critique my understanding...

Regards
Nat

I think this is logical and possible. It would be nice if some sort of evidence exists to back it up as a valid explanation.

[ssvp22]

this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage.

Best way to avoid wastage is to take in more applications and approve pre adjudicated cases. Besides that waiting for the last month to take 5-8k applications has more chances of wastage.

the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Right now they look nothing more than a mistake. You can compare to mistake done by Mumbai consulate last month where they said EB2I was current. Or VB vanishing earlier today. Or maybe some guy at INS didnt know the rules and he sent the fee notice. Shit happens. Also, the number of reported NVC fee notices(3-4 at max) is too low to confirm this is really happening for everyone who applied for CP.

[Zoroark]

leo4ever,
Please check our PERM Monthly Breakdown, approvals post July 2007.
You may want to check PERM Matrix also, all posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

I am trying to find out the ratio between Perm and I-485 based on 2006 data to determine future demand. Below data includes both EB2 and EB3

PD - 2006 Perm Data
FY 2006 - 14046 , FY 2007 - 11461 , FY08-11 - 175
TOTAL ~ 25700

PD - 2006 I-485 Inventory data - 18551 + 10587 = 29138

So its 1.13 times Perm data.

If we take 2008 the total Perm is 23352.
So demand is ~ 26387

If we split 70/30 between EB2 and EB3.

2008 EB2 - 18471
2008 EB3 - 7915

[TeddyKoochu]

6K porting? hmm...

I think every one gets that. Was wondering if 6K is backed by some hard numbers. We really need to wait till Sep bulletin to see where we land - as Venni said. Plus PWMB , porting are guesstimates and there are more unknowns than before now.

This is actually a guesstimate value for next year. In 2010 porting was calculated at 3K, this year it was guesstimated at 6K, I feel it will stay at that level because the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is extreme and people have started to even upgrade their qualifications. This year porting could not be calculated because of the fact that Eb3 inventory was incremented by the local office cases. Porting cannot grow exponentially but it will be proportionate to the disparity between EB2 and Eb3 and than plateau out. So 6K is more of a guesstimate in that light.

In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.

The scope of that post was a forecast to guesstimate the demand for the upcoming year. Completely agree with your points.

[TeddyKoochu]

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

[imdeng]

The silver lining in the small movement in EB2I PD is that it increases the chances of pipeline building in Sept VB. If they had taken the PD far out in Aug and the flood of applications have accounted for all visa numbers then it would not have been possible for DoS to increase PD in the next bulletin. By being conservative for Aug, they can make sure that at the time of Sept bulletin, they still have visa numbers left and hence have a viable legal route to moving the PD forward.

[03May07]

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

[leo4ever]

Hi Veni,

Thanks a lot buddy. This info is a lot helpful.

kd2008,
Agree, we all predicted July'11 VB will move EB2IC to Jan'07 instead moved to March'07, which in-turn raised hopes until August bulletin brought the reality back.
Bottom line is FY predictions are in-line with our calculations.

[kkurasa]

I tend to agree and also think they could move the dates farther ahead in the next VB to build a pipeline before retrogressing it a little. That way, they would know the demand and can then decide what to do as the next spill over season starts.

The silver lining in the small movement in EB2I PD is that it increases the chances of pipeline building in Sept VB. If they had taken the PD far out in Aug and the flood of applications have accounted for all visa numbers then it would not have been possible for DoS to increase PD in the next bulletin. By being conservative for Aug, they can make sure that at the time of Sept bulletin, they still have visa numbers left and hence have a viable legal route to moving the PD forward.

[leo4ever]

@03May07,

Dont be Optimist or Pessimist, be a Sthithapragyudu...just kidding.
I know making decisions these days are a lot tougher. I wanted to buy a house and wanted to settle at once place but i can not. H1 they extend it for 1 yr, Drivers license is based on I94 now..Every one is little selfish and there should not be any issue.

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

[Monica12]

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

I totally understand your frustation. I need to make some really tough decisions and right now feel as if my life is completely on hold. I'm living one VB to another.....
That is why I love this site, it can help people like me make informed decisions about their lives...
I'm trying to be an optimist..

[qesehmk]

Team, the poll we posted on name change etc has so far consistently yield about 1/3rd people advocating some change (either domain name or blog name) while 2/3rd saying don't change anything.

I do not think the numbers will move much %wise even if we keep teh poll alive for another few weeks. So I am going to take this poll down today. If anybody has objections/suggestions .. let me know.

Based on the poll results, we will keep everything as is.

[kpt112107]

I am P now...

[suninphx]

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

So total of about 33K SOFAD this yr.. Is that lower side of the estimated numbers? From memory we were estimating 38 K to 40K of SOFAD on upper side?

[pdmay2008]

This is actually a guesstimate value for next year. In 2010 porting was calculated at 3K, this year it was guesstimated at 6K, I feel it will stay at that level because the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is extreme and people have started to even upgrade their qualifications. This year porting could not be calculated because of the fact that Eb3 inventory was incremented by the local office cases. Porting cannot grow exponentially but it will be proportionate to the disparity between EB2 and Eb3 and than plateau out. So 6K is more of a guesstimate in that light.



The scope of that post was a forecast to guesstimate the demand for the upcoming year. Completely agree with your points.

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

[SDAKSHIN]

Guys I got a Question. I will be applying for 485 this august since my PD is 10APR2007. Hypothetically if they retrogress the dates in SEP (sincerely hope they dont) what would be the impact. Elsewhere I read there should be visa # available to approve 485. Am I safe if I apply in august or should I keep be worried about these VB till I get approval.

[qesehmk]

My 2 cents on portings:

Whatever the porting this year, one needs to ask, why would that change next year? Is economy getting better?

No matter what individual frustration level is - one still needs a sponsor. Finding a sponsor to file GC is tough in itself. Finding one to file second when first is already filed is huge. Job change could do this miracle ...but then how many have that luxury?

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

Guys I got a Question. I will be applying for 485 this august since my PD is 10APR2007. Hypothetically if they retrogress the dates in SEP (sincerely hope they dont) what would be the impact. Elsewhere I read there should be visa # available to approve 485. Am I safe if I apply in august or should I keep be worried about these VB till I get approval.

The dates movement so far are completely sustainable i.e. will NOT retrogress. You should be clear by end of this year for sure.

[bieber]

not even 1/3rd of H1b quota is used in this year, filing new h1s, getting extensions are really not smoother now, this should be a leading indicator for porting and EB1C demand

[ssvp22]

No matter what individual frustration level is - one still needs a sponsor. Finding a sponsor to file GC is tough in itself. Finding one to file second when first is already filed is huge. Job change could do this miracle ...but then how many have that luxury?

Besides that, there is nothing stopping pre August 2007 EB3s from porting all these years. I dont see any sudden increase in porting as a result.

[suninphx]

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

I have slightly different view point. Majority of us believe that Eb2/EB3 ratio post 2007 is ~70/30. If you add 6K of porting..are we saying ~90% of applicants will be in EB2? That sounds unrealistic to me.

[velugc]

I agree, i know many of my EB3 friends with PD after July 2007 already switched / seriously planning to switch jobs to come into EB2.

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

[Spectator]

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

I haven't entirely decided on what the level of Porting might be next year.

I do agree that the number porting (or at least attempting to port) per "PD month" post July 2007 will probably be higher because many with earlier PDs in EB3 have the benefit of EAD/AP. As Teddy has subsequently pointed out, post July 2007 many people just did not file in EB3 at all, so this is a counteracting factor.

However, we didn't really see any effect from porting until FY2010 (as it became clear how fast EB2-I was progressing as a result of the revised spillover interpretation).

Therefore the porting numbers encompassed people with PDs ranging from say, 2003 to at least May 2006 in FY 2010 and up to April 2007 in FY2011.

A lot of those who can port with earlier PDs will have already done so, so numbers from older PDs might be expected to decline.

How those lower numbers, combined with perhaps higher numbers post backlog turn into a final number, I haven't yet decided.

At the moment, 6k for porting alone in FY2012 feels slightly on the high side.

I need to think about it a bit more.

[neospeed]

Last year sept 2010 vb got around 5k eb2 I/C movement. I hope we will have the same movement in the coming vb. They might dump all the unused number in the coming vb in order not to waste any single one this time (heard last year they wasted around 600, which translates to one week movement (: )