EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[orangeca]

Bulleting is back online again. It is the same:

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5518.html

[Monica12]

vb is up again and it's the same dates, I THINK

[GC-Utopic]

bulletin is up

[chirag.n]

ok..its back...no change from original..

[ssvp22]

ok..its back...no change from original..

This sucks man.

[03May07]

OMG why haven't they restore Aug VB link, is there any chance they might retrogress or revert it to July VB dates?... I know I am in panic mode...but cant hlp thinking all kinds of worst case scenario...Was excited my PD got current but since the link went missing I am back in panic mode...

SDAKSHIN,
The link is restored. I think you can switch off your Panic mode.

[nishant2200]

My life was on pause since last few months. My daughter and wife saying something, I was occupied on iPhone reading information and websites. thinking , hoping , dreaming.

I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

[pdmay2008]

vb is up again and it's the same dates, I THINK

Hope for the best in June 2012. I do not see any light in the near future.

[SDAKSHIN]

SDAKSHIN,
The link is restored. I think you can switch off your Panic mode.

lol atlast.

[GC-Utopic]

So true buddy, well said

My life was on pause since last few months. My daughter and wife saying something, I was occupied on iPhone reading information and websites. thinking , hoping , dreaming.

I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

[mygctracker]

OMG, I don't believe this.... This sucks...What a bummer! Gurus, Does anyone see any kind of bright side from this VB?

[03May07]

'qblogfan' any info to add from your site?

Congratulations to Q and to all those whose PD became current. (Looks like Q is off to his immunization appt.)

[Zoroark]

The PD will not cross June 1st, 2007 this FY year. Next real movement may be during May'12. c u all in 9 months.

[imechanix]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

I guess both of your source are pretty close to reality.

[grnwtg]

Looking from the negative side, Does Guru's here think have any chance to move into early 2008 atleast by end of 2012?
Since there are lot of eb2 row and eb1 pending and apart from it more than expected portings, is there any chance that eb2 IC will see atleast 5000 to 10000 spill overs for next year?
personally with this depressing mood, i feel that dates might not cross July '2007 even by the end of 2012. Not sure my depressing mood is thinking...
Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy any input FY2012?

[gc0907]

I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

Not yet, we still have Sept'11.

Sachin is Out but Yuvi is coming.

[pch053]

pch053,
Yes, EB2IC PD movement so far this year is exactly in-line with our initial estimates! Irrespective of September 2011 Visa Bulletin EB2I dates will settle down around JUN-JUL 2007 until next(FY2012) spillover season.

I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.

[familyguy]

I was wondering how did you get the bulletin in memo/pdf style... I think I figured out.. clicking on "View as Printer Friendly PDF" in the visa bulletin page will re direct to the PDF link...

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...August2011.pdf

[nishant2200]

The PD will not cross June 1st, 2007 this FY year. Next real movement may be during May'12. c u all in 9 months.

Zoroark, don't really just disappear. We need people to at least occasionally drop by and keep the flame going.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q/Spec/Teddy/Veni and others,
This bulletin might be in sync with the lower estimates of spillovers. As mentioned in the earlier posts, there can be anywhere between 3.6K - 9.6K spillovers available. This 5 weeks of movement will consume nearly ~2.5K - 3K spillovers. If we see similar movement in the Sep bulletin, the dates will be around late May'07 (or even 1st June) and that is still within the range of estimates that we have. I now see two possibilities in Sep bulletin: i) USCIS advances the dates drastically in Sep bulletin by appox 1 year (and then retrogresses in Oct or Nov bulletin) or ii) they advance another few weeks to months to consume the remaining spillovers available. This bulletin is a disappointing for sure but I still feel that there is a possibility of option (i). In the worst case, all PWMB and early - mid 2012 PDs will probably get a chance to file their I485 by March - April'2012. Any thoughts!

I almost completely agree with you. There has been ~ 3K totaling to 28K of movement by this bulletin and the best case maximum we could expect would be another 5K. Looks like the conservative calculation of 33K SOFAD will be either barely be satisfied or we may miss it by 2K. Realistically the dates may range from 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Most PWMB's will miss it again this year, as Spec had written earlier the dates may open only by May 2012, I hope they put in some thought about having the fresh intake a little earlier though. Even this year they started the SOFAD application much earlier than the last quarter. Since this scenario is unprecedented let’s wait and watch.

I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.

Completely agree with you, well said.

[ssvp22]

Zoroark, don't really just disappear. We need people to at least occasionally drop by and keep the flame going.

I will be here. And hopefully so would be quite a few others.

[beeooh]

Not the best of the days for many on this forum, But I've just joined the forum and was wondering why is it that most of the movement happens in the summer every year, I have a vague understanding its the spillovers, But can somebody, not necessarily a Guru share their gyan on this aspect.
Thanks

[veni001]

I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.

pch053,
EB2IC should at least move to early/late July 2007 to see 5k PWMB.
If EB2IC stay at 15APR2007 in September'11 bulletin also, then USCIS will only see about 1.5k EB2IC-PWMB!

[Dojoapril]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?

[veni001]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?

Same as the one with 16April2007 PD, which is a Monday!