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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #3926
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    lol. well its paid off ... literally... got a 50% hike in pay this year. I can't imagine what my market value will be when I can actually change jobs with an EAD or GC.
    Not sure what you are making, in tech 150-170k is easy once GC is in hand.

  2. #3927
    Both these links are intact

    http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...August2011.pdf
    http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5518.html

    So typo may not be true, great if its true though.... But keep the hopes low, at the least its less disappointment..

  3. #3928
    Oracle tackle's Avatar
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    Thanks gchopeful123. I was optimistic until earlier today. I was disappointed when I saw the bulletin. Now, I'm at a state where I do not want to get my hopes back up to be disappointed again. Let us just wait for them to put the link back up. Best wishes to all .

    Quote Originally Posted by gchopeful123 View Post
    tackle,
    lets be optimistic. MY PD is Sep 24,2007

  4. #3929
    Quote Originally Posted by ChampU View Post
    Hi Q,

    Yesterday a few people reported getting "Database errors" while viewing this blog and it happened to me twice this morning. It is understandable considering the traffic this blog gets for being a source/platform for members/users to contribute/discuss and analyze GC related information.
    Personally, this blog is one of the websites that I visit at least once a day and getting the error is at times disheartening. If I could contribute in any way to enable you to buy more bandwidth, please let me know.

    Keep up the good work!

    Champ
    I second ChampU's thoughts, and would like to help in any way possible, monetory or technical. No effort should go in vain, to help keep this site running. I, personally have learnt much from this site, than from any other sources.

  5. #3930
    If it was really a typo, they have to rectify the front page/html first - the pdfs and other underlying links come later. Maybe that's why these are still unchanged...just being optimistic...aall is well...aall is well !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by kolugc View Post
    Both these links are intact

    http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...August2011.pdf
    http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5518.html

    So typo may not be true, great if its true though.... But keep the hopes low, at the least its less disappointment..

  6. #3931
    if this is a typo then USCIS will weigh the legal ramifications (if any) before making a change.....

    Regards
    Nat

  7. #3932
    I think its a typo as both the links for Aug VB are up. If they have to correct the bulletin those pages should have been donw. Probably they wanted to remove September comming soon. They might be correcting the main page now.

    Quote Originally Posted by gchopeful123 View Post
    If it was really a typo, they have to rectify the front page/html first - the pdfs and other underlying links come later. Maybe that's why these are still unchanged...just being optimistic...aall is well...aall is well !!!

  8. #3933

    Congratulations Q

    Congratulations, if there's any silver lining in the bulletin for all, this is it. I'm happy for you.

    Best!
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    ChampU,

    Really appreciate the gesture and will sure ask you if we need anything.

    For now the site is hosted on hostmonster.com which engages in throttling to avoid one application using all the bandwidth.

    I noticed that the database error comes when reader count hits 360 or so. So let me check if there is a limit on database connections or users etc. Thanks again!

  9. #3934
    Q,
    Can you check with your source about all this drama on Aug VB?
    Thanks.

  10. #3935
    Guys,

    Please stop the conspiracy theories. I know it's exciting to 'believe' that DOS will change the VB, but try to get real. DOS/CIS had taught us to digest the bad news for month over month for more than a decade, we must be used to the bad news more than the good news. Relax and we'll get back to calculations for next VB shortly.
    Quote Originally Posted by leo4ever View Post
    I think its a typo as both the links for Aug VB are up. If they have to correct the bulletin those pages should have been donw. Probably they wanted to remove September comming soon. They might be correcting the main page now.

  11. #3936
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    USCIS is considering all possibilities now!
    LOL .. USCIS always believes in surprises

  12. #3937
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Please stop the conspiracy theories
    conspiracy theories are part of being human. Else we will be machines where we do the assigned set of work and stop.

  13. #3938
    I heard their email notification is not reliable but wondering if anyone received aug2011 notification via email?

    It's like hoping 3rd umpire will declare that Sachin is not out though our eyes saw he is out.

  14. #3939
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Q/Spec/Teddy/Veni and others,
    This bulletin might be in sync with the lower estimates of spillovers. As mentioned in the earlier posts, there can be anywhere between 3.6K - 9.6K spillovers available. This 5 weeks of movement will consume nearly ~2.5K - 3K spillovers. If we see similar movement in the Sep bulletin, the dates will be around late May'07 (or even 1st June) and that is still within the range of estimates that we have. I now see two possibilities in Sep bulletin: i) USCIS advances the dates drastically in Sep bulletin by appox 1 year (and then retrogresses in Oct or Nov bulletin) or ii) they advance another few weeks to months to consume the remaining spillovers available. This bulletin is a disappointing for sure but I still feel that there is a possibility of option (i). In the worst case, all PWMB and early - mid 2012 PDs will probably get a chance to file their I485 by March - April'2012. Any thoughts!

  15. #3940
    Quote Originally Posted by gc0907 View Post
    It's like hoping 3rd umpire will declare that Sachin is not out though our eyes saw he is out.
    OMG. My childhood went hoping that every time Sachin would play. But Pakistan made that dream come true in WorldCup when they dropped him 4 times.

  16. #3941

    Underlying html link also removed

    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    OMG. My childhood went hoping that every time Sachin would play. But Pakistan made that dream come true in WorldCup when they dropped him 4 times.
    Underlying html link also removed

  17. #3942
    Sorry. Looked at the wrong link. My anxiety won against my frustration.

  18. #3943
    No, the underlying link http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5518.html is still active. I am still able to view the dates. As others have pointed out, even if this is a typo, they might not correct it this month....

    One optimistic thought I have is they probably will have about 4 k (3 K movement in Aug bulletin leaving ~4K spillover left for september), and this 4k is probably going to be given to CP to bring the dates to Mid 2008 next bulletin ....

  19. #3944
    Guru's

    Is there any update on Visa Bulletin

  20. #3945
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Guys,

    Please stop the conspiracy theories. I know it's exciting to 'believe' that DOS will change the VB, but try to get real. DOS/CIS had taught us to digest the bad news for month over month for more than a decade, we must be used to the bad news more than the good news. Relax and we'll get back to calculations for next VB shortly.
    Here'z a quick poll.. How many of us are focussed on work at hand at this moment and what percentage of your attention is focussed on the VB and the blog??
    Personally for me, 95% on the blog/VB.. 10% on work that pays bills.. I know thats more than 100% but hey.. its the spillover season......

  21. #3946
    Quote Originally Posted by shreyasai2004 View Post
    Guru's

    Is there any update on Visa Bulletin
    good morning. come sit.

  22. #3947
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    Q/Spec/Teddy/Veni and others,
    This bulletin might be in sync with the lower estimates of spillovers. As mentioned in the earlier posts, there can be anywhere between 3.6K - 9.6K spillovers available. This 5 weeks of movement will consume nearly ~2.5K - 3K spillovers. If we see similar movement in the Sep bulletin, the dates will be around late May'07 (or even 1st June) and that is still within the range of estimates that we have. I now see two possibilities in Sep bulletin: i) USCIS advances the dates drastically in Sep bulletin by appox 1 year (and then retrogresses in Oct or Nov bulletin) or ii) they advance another few weeks to months to consume the remaining spillovers available. This bulletin is a disappointing for sure but I still feel that there is a possibility of option (i). In the worst case, all PWMB and early - mid 2012 PDs will probably get a chance to file their I485 by March - April'2012. Any thoughts!
    pch053,
    Yes, EB2IC PD movement so far this year is exactly in-line with our initial estimates! Irrespective of September 2011 Visa Bulletin EB2I dates will settle down around JUN-JUL 2007 until next(FY2012) spillover season.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  23. #3948
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    OMG why haven't they restore Aug VB link, is there any chance they might retrogress or revert it to July VB dates?... I know I am in panic mode...but cant hlp thinking all kinds of worst case scenario...Was excited my PD got current but since the link went missing I am back in panic mode...

  24. #3949
    I think they are trying to focus attention now on EB1 and EB2 ROW after focusing on EB2 I/C for last few months. They want to make more of them documentarily qualified and assign visa numbers. Many of them must have responded to the RFEs by now.

    I think we can think that they are never going to make gutsy moves, but always move in the line of caution, and they are ok with wasting few visas, say 400, instead of moving aggressively.

    I also think this 15 APRIL 2007 is a result of communication between DOS, USCIS and VO. If this would not have been there, DOS would have advanced substantially or a repeat of the July 2007, because they would have just gone by the demand data of 10.5k visas demand left. Instead because of communication, they must have been apprised of the situation about EB1 and EB2 ROW by USCIS, and hence the decision.

    This means that EB2 ROW will continue remaining current, which is a good thing.

  25. #3950
    Quote Originally Posted by SDAKSHIN View Post
    OMG why haven't they restore Aug VB link, is there any chance they might retrogress or revert it to July VB dates?... I know I am in panic mode...but cant hlp thinking all kinds of worst case scenario...Was excited my PD got current but since the link went missing I am back in panic mode...
    Save the earlier visa bulletin PDF for a lawsuit if this comes pass. :P . My PD is 09 Mar 2007, I am not panicking .................. yet. But if you must panic, panic first!

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