EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Everybody .... calm down. I usually would agree with VizCard but the excitement this time around is understandable because most of these people have been waiting for date to be current for four years now.

Lets be patient and lets not jump on anybody. Cross the finger and hope that the bulletin brings good news as per our calculations.

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, V, T Please check out this:

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_07142011.html

Notice a "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act" It does not even have a number. I wonder how it showed up on the mark-up agenda.

Markups are a big deal. That means they are ready to take a vote on the committee and send it from the committee to the house floor for vote.

Of course, Senate Democrats will never vote on any thing that does not include CIR. So its going to be dead on arrival in Senate.

Its really interesting how the legislative process works in the U.S.

kd,

Sadly, I note it has now been crossed off.

[tanu_75]

You are trying to spoil the sanctity of this forum....Pls stop the non-sense...we are tired of such topics on the other forum..

Good luck with that. Popularity will in general result in a quality decline as you seem to define it. Then you start policing and offend folks etc etc.

[michaelclarke]

Every body calm down and do not spoil a good thing going.

[pch053]

we had same delay for June vb (released on may 11th). Dates moved from may 06 to oct 06 (5 months). I hope there will be similar movement for the aug vb as they got it delayed so long already 07/11.

I think the movement was 3 and 1/2 months from 1st July'06 - 15th Oct'06. But, still it was a good advancement of PDs.

[kolugc]

So its its beyond 5pm. Do they normally update off office hours? So its going to be tomorrow morning after 9am or so?

[natvyas]

Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

Spec

I agree that this a possibility and had posted this scenario about a week ago.

regards
Nat

[imdeng]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

[veni001]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

imdeng,
We need to add porting numbers to this reduction.
Comparing September 2010 EB3I demand with August 2011 show a net reduction of 3,925, which means 1,125 more than it's annual allocation.

[khushraho]

Just to create a pipeline for next year's movement, I think they will push the PD to 12/31/2009.

There is a high possibility that then can clear upto this point in next spillover season and theat is the rational behind this thought.

[tanu_75]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

I hope it moves too. But something we discussed a few pages back needs to kept in mind. The EB2 ROW pending 485 number is pretty high and if it converts into demand next year and if processing times improve for current EB2ROW then it'll cut into how much dates could move next year.

[nishant2200]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

there can be some chinks in the armor, EB1 EB2 ROW cases which become qualified for demand from pending right now, as well as porting. But yes, other factors are true for now what you said, I feel.

Meanwhile I am thinking of ideas as to how I will sleep tonight if the mumbai consulate also does not put any updates in evening.

[qesehmk]

There are tailwinds next years as follows:
- Continued weakness in H1 market and economy in general.
- No resolution on Kazarian memo yet.

But there are strong headwinds too.
- EB1 EB2ROW backlog from 2011.
- PWMBs get added (estimated 6K)
- Portings (2-4K at least)
- Possible EB5 reforms/improvements

And then there is one white SWAN
- Possible spillover from FB to EB

So all in all ... its too early to predict EB future for 2012. But everything else being equal. 2012 will not be as much a bumper year as 2011 is turning out to be.

[Monica12]

Around what time does the Mumbai Consulate post the VB usually? Looks like tonite that is a possibility there...

[pch053]

imdeng,
We need to add porting numbers to this reduction.
Comparing September 2010 EB3I demand with August 2001 show a net reduction of 3,925, which means 1,125 more than it's annual allocation.

Veni,
If we assume that 3/4 quota (~2100) of EB3-I has been allocated so far, then the # of porting cases is 1,125 + 700 = 1,825. Do you think this is a fair estimate for EB3->EB2 porting cases so far? In my calculation, I am totally disregarding CP cases which is probably more for EB3 than EB2 but still the point I am trying to make is that porting is not significant (maybe in the vicinity of 2K). It's not that new information but I wonder why people were conjecturing the EB3->EB2 porting numbers to be as high as 10K (especially in trackitt; people always had reasonable estimate in this forum)!

[shivarajan]

Around what time does the Mumbai Consulate post the VB usually? Looks like tonite that is a possibility there...

9.00pm to 12.00am PST

[indiasunil]

My PD 01/15/2008 - EB2 .. Can we expect in Aug or Sep VB ?

[haripathhi]

GEICO: 15 minutes of reading the header on the first page could save 15% or more of our time! Lol! Jk! Please read the header (which is updated regularly)...its hard for the gurus to predict for individual pd's

My PD 01/15/2008 .. Can we expect in Aug or Sep VB ?

[veni001]

GEICO: 15 minutes of reading the header on the first page could save 15% or more of our time! Lol! Jk! Please read the header (which is updated regularly)...its hard for the gurus to predict for individual pd's

Correction QESEHMK inplace of GIECO

[veni001]

Veni,
If we assume that 3/4 quota (~2100) of EB3-I has been allocated so far, then the # of porting cases is 1,125 + 700 = 1,825. Do you think this is a fair estimate for EB3->EB2 porting cases so far? In my calculation, I am totally disregarding CP cases which is probably more for EB3 than EB2 but still the point I am trying to make is that porting is not significant (maybe in the vicinity of 2K). It's not that new information but I wonder why people were conjecturing the EB3->EB2 porting numbers to be as high as 10K (especially in trackitt; people always had reasonable estimate in this forum)!

pch053,
I think 2K EB3I->EB2I porting between October 2010 and July 2011 is a fair estimate.
Let's how many more porting cases will get approval in Q4.

[mygctracker]

Aug 2011 demand data released... indicates 10k demand was used for Aug VB cut-off dates. Hopefully VB should be out tomorrow with gr8 news... :-)

[nishant2200]

Aug 2011 demand data released... indicates 10k demand was used for Aug VB cut-off dates. Hopefully VB should be out tomorrow with gr8 news... :-)

the demand data I saw hours ago while I was beginning my day in the bathroom ritual in the morning. And wanted to post about it but Spec beat me to it. We have all been wrecking our brains on it on last few pages. Anyways, welcome to the party, no harm in sharing when you found it, and we are all waiting for the news!

[pravara]

the demand data I saw hours ago while I was beginning my day in the bathroom ritual in the morning.

-->It's a bit TMI, bro Hang in there, I had the same feeling until last bulletin too...

[pg_at_q]

Wouldn't it be great if CO also publishes the supply data (i.e. no of Visas available) when he publishes the demand data? Wouldn't that make life easy for everyone?

[Nishant11]

In my opinion, delay for visa bulletin may have nothing unusual reason except that in first 11 days of this month, there were 4 weekends plus one holiday and they need minimum working days to complete their tasks before they can publish data.