EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

However 485 inventory doesn't show spike in ROW inventory. .

may be Teddy's assumption of 50% of labors to non I+C is wrong, and it may be a 20% or below and u will see the surge when I+C get a chance to file 485

[qesehmk]

Thanks. The % will be at least what it shows on trackitt. It could be more. Honestly I haven't checked.

Regarding I+C surge ... that will be huge when it comes. But above I was only refering to ROW labor approvals and its implications for ROW 485 inventory in EB2.

may be Teddy's assumption of 50% of labors to non I+C is wrong, and it may be a 20% or below and u will see the surge when I+C get a chance to file 485

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy if I may ... let me say (and you already know this) that USCIS data is full of anamolies and sometimes you can't take the numbers completely at face value for whatever reason. e.g. if you try to use labor data in absolute terms then at least 15-20K ROW numbers from last year should've been carried into 2011. (a very rough figure mind you!)

However 485 inventory doesn't show spike in ROW inventory. The reason I would expect spike is because even ROW has its own quota and takes some time to process. But we haven';t see such spike. So there are things out there that we don';t fully understand.

So in those situations I would rather rely on different techniques - viz. using multiple data sources or using %changes rather than absolute numbers - just like we did last year.

Just a suggestion.....

p.s. - Funnily enough USCIS dashboard has stopped publishing data. The one I see is from Oct 10. And the monthly reports are as cryptic as they have ever been.

Q thanks, I agree with you that the percent reduction approach is really the best one this is one of the key things I picked up and learnt from your predictions and calculations. In the Trackitt calculations that i have presented to you I used that, last year the error in this approach was around 6.5K, I had done it after the fact Trackitt gave me 33K however actual was 26.5K. So for an approximation of SOFAD I used the I/C annual cap as a buffer but still this figure is 35K way more than anybody else is projecting. On the perm figures Iam struggling to reconcile them with my mind, somehow my heart is telling me that they are high (That maybe due to my own desire to have the dates move further), however if these absolute numbers are true the situation will be tough and it will definitely extend the GC dreams of many by atleast a year. The perm analysis looks really good and our good friend Spec has been really kind in explaining the same over and over. On the dashboard I could never decipher anything out of it seems to be more for high level management reporting than for anything else. The thing that could help us is if they could start publishing how many cases are approved every month per category this likely may not happen in the foreseeable future, I somehow find Trackitt to be the best source to measure the consumption.

[TeddyKoochu]

may be Teddy's assumption of 50% of labors to non I+C is wrong, and it may be a 20% or below and u will see the surge when I+C get a chance to file 485

20-30% was my original projection however nobody agrees to that so I went by 50-50 a Spec suggested. Maybe in the current times everybody now is trying extra hard for EB2. If its really 20-30 then it will be a great situation for EB2 I/C.

[Spectator]

Spec

Your explanation is valid from mathematical point of view. But I am looking at it from "who is in the line first". From that perspective EB2ROW is gaining at the expense of EB2I&C. Secondly the timing of PERM expediting also was interesting to say the least. Otherwise significant EB2I would be cleared last year itself as we had predicted in Jan 10.

Q,

Sure.

But that's just a debate about the merits of the initial 7% per Country allocation. I don't want to get into that.

[kd2008]

20-30% was my original projection however nobody agrees to that so I went by 50-50 a Spec suggested. Maybe in the current times everybody now is trying extra hard for EB2. If its really 20-30 then it will be a great situation for EB2 I/C.

If you look at the PERM data for FY 2010, I+C (EB2+EB3) is 50% of total. hence the suggestion, I think. If any thing, I+C (EB2) may be 70% of EB2 total. Which is even better for Spillover but who knows??

[qesehmk]

That's fine. Country quota is discriminatory and hurtful to large countries esp China and India.

p.s. BTW if you don't mind I will use those two charts you created in the header for everybody's benefit. Pls let me know if ok. If you think they need cleanup or corrections and want to wait ... that's fine too.

Q,

Sure.

But that's just a debate about the merits of the initial 7% per Country allocation. I don't want to get into that.

[Spectator]

Spec my sincerest thanks to you, I agree that the last 4 months of 2010 surge is fairly significant and it does translate to a high pipeline and the same should be hitting the 485 queue very soon. Thanks to kd2008 for the wonderful formula besides Sangiano for the analysis.

Teddy,

If it was of any help to you then that good to hear.

The early part of FY 2010 was really very slow for all perm approvals which may not have accounted for very many ROW approvals anyway I mean the later part of 2009 which is part of CY 2009 but part of FY 2010.

I promised to try and reconstruct the FY2010 PERM data for ROW (excluding M & P) into FY of submission and to see what the first 8 months looked like.

I've finished that. Maybe the figures below will be of some assistance to you.

All Applications

Year ----- No ---- - % - - Days Pending
FY2010 -- 9,986 -- 32.59% --- 123
FY2009 - 16,521 -- 53.91% --- 296
FY2008 -- 3,764 -- 12.28% --- 749
FY2007 ---- 348 --- 1.14% --- 918
FY2006 ----- 23 --- 0.08% - 1,363
FY2005 ------ 2 --- 0.01% - 1,754

Total -- 30,644 - 100.00%

First 8 months Approvals

Year ----- No ---- - % - - Days Pending
FY2010 -- 3,492 -- 15.65% --- 157
FY2009 - 16,053 -- 71.96% --- 293
FY2008 -- 2,408 -- 10.79% --- 731
FY2007 ---- 334 --- 1.50% --- 907
FY2006 ----- 19 --- 0.09% - 1,321
FY2005 ------ 1 --- 0.00% - 1,590

Total -- 22,307 - 100.00%

Last 4 months Approvals

Year ----- No ---- - % - - Days Pending
FY2010 -- 6,494 -- 77.89% --- 105
FY2009 ---- 468 --- 5.61% --- 386
FY2008 -- 1,356 -- 16.26% --- 779
FY2007 ----- 14 --- 0.17% - 1,176
FY2006 ------ 4 --- 0.05% - 1,562
FY2005 ------ 1 --- 0.01% - 1,918

Total --- 8,337 - 100.00%

A quick look says that the majority of the backlog reduction related to FY2009 cases and that the vast majority of that had been completed in the first 8 months. That might be a bit simplistic though.

To conclude lets keep watching the 485 approvals as well in addition to Perm, I would rewrite my analysis by averaging the 485 approvals for EB2 ROW and EB1 over the entire year and then finding the monthly average for 2009 and compare with whatever we have in 2010 as opposed to comparing corresponding periods, this way we can average based on the whole year rather just a few months. Both these categories had favorable conditions for approval the whole year round without any cap limitations.

I think we have reached a consensus about this.

If we use a multi-faceted approach and give regard to data and trends from all sources, we might achieve more clarity.

The optimistic trend from Trackitt is tempered by the more pessimistic PERM view and vice versa.

Q,

I don't think they have stopped updating the dashboard - they are just very slow in doing so for some reason. USCIS only added the Oct 2010 figures about 3 weeks ago.

[geevikram]

Thanks guys for all the analysis. So are we sticking onto the original prediction for cut-off dates?

[qesehmk]

Usually they used to have a 40 days lag. Now its been over 100 days and they haven't updated.

Q,
I don't think they have stopped updating the dashboard - they are just very slow in doing so for some reason. USCIS only added the Oct 2010 figures about 3 weeks ago.

Thanks guys for all the analysis. So are we sticking onto the original prediction for cut-off dates?

I think we are hovering around Jan-Mar 07. But there are discussions (optimistic and pessimistic ones) that leads one to consider extreme scenarios such as May 07 (best case) OR Oct-Nov 06 (Worst Case) for EB2I.

[kd2008]

Usually they used to have a 40 days lag. Now its been over 100 days and they haven't updated.




I think we are hovering around Jan-Mar 07. But there are discussions (optimistic and pessimistic ones) that leads one to consider extreme scenarios such as May 07 (best case) OR Oct-Nov 06 (Worst Case) for EB2I.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

It is now updated for Nov.

[TeluguBidda]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

It is now updated for Nov.

Did anyone notice the unusual spike in I-140 applications at TSC? Trend Chart shows this spike starting May 2010. Perhaps porting related? The same spike was not there in I-485 applications, so I was thinking that it may related to porting cases.

[qesehmk]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

It is now updated for Nov.

Thanks KD. Will take a look ...

Did anyone notice the unusual spike in I-140 applications at TSC? Trend Chart shows this spike starting May 2010. Perhaps porting related? The same spike was not there in I-485 applications, so I was thinking that it may related to porting cases.

It looks like they are redirecting all 140s to TSC. As per the increase in backlog, it was expected after the acceleration in PERM processing. Remember these include all categories all countries ... since one can file 140 right after labor. So not all of them will flow through 485 immediately.

But even if you assume 50% are ROW & 50% of that are ROW EB2 then that could be nearly sufficient to choke EB2I. Again .... sorry for the grim prognosis..but its better to be clear about whats in store. In fact these are the thigns that run contrary to trackitt approval trend which is showing significant reduction in EB1 and EB2ROW.

[bieber]

Q,

in 2009, H1 quota lasted till nov, this year it's still open. just an observation on how the new workforce is getting into the system, for backlog reduction it doesn't matter if Ind+China people applying for new labors but ROW matters.
I'm trying to understand the reason behind ur grim outlook

[kd2008]

Thanks KD. Will take a look ...



It looks like they are redirecting all 140s to TSC. As per the increase in backlog, it was expected after the acceleration in PERM processing. Remember these include all categories all countries ... since one can file 140 right after labor. So not all of them will flow through 485 immediately.

But even if you assume 50% are ROW & 50% of that are ROW EB2 then that could be nearly sufficient to choke EB2I. Again .... sorry for the grim prognosis..but its better to be clear about whats in store. In fact these are the thigns that run contrary to trackitt approval trend which is showing significant reduction in EB1 and EB2ROW.

One of the reasons why the trackitt data is reduced may be because the turn around time is so small. If my labor is getting approved in 20 days and my attorney tells me I will get a green card in 4 months after filing for I-140, then why would I want to even bother with finding out about whats happening with others? Just trying to understand the decrease here. Help me if you think there might be reasons other than decrease in the number of filings.

[TeluguBidda]

But even if you assume 50% are ROW & 50% of that are ROW EB2 then that could be nearly sufficient to choke EB2I. Again .... sorry for the grim prognosis..but its better to be clear about whats in store. In fact these are the thigns that run contrary to trackitt approval trend which is showing significant reduction in EB1 and EB2ROW.

So, the earlier worst-case scenario of Oct-Nov 06 holds good OR does it appear like it is going to be more worse?

[qesehmk]

bieber

Good question. I think the grim outlook doesn't come from current year demand but from opening the floodgates of PERM approvals.
ROW also saw that surge in PERMs last year which killed EB2IC hopes. So in other words ...while 2010-11 ROW labor applications may be low, its the pentup demand from prior years in ROW which is now being realized after they are getting through labor stage.

Q,

in 2009, H1 quota lasted till nov, this year it's still open. just an observation on how the new workforce is getting into the system, for backlog reduction it doesn't matter if Ind+China people applying for new labors but ROW matters.
I'm trying to understand the reason behind ur grim outlook

[qesehmk]

One of the reasons why the trackitt data is reduced may be because the turn around time is so small. If my labor is getting approved in 20 days and my attorney tells me I will get a green card in 4 months after filing for I-140, then why would I want to even bother with finding out about whats happening with others? Just trying to understand the decrease here. Help me if you think there might be reasons other than decrease in the number of filings.

Exactly. That's how I look at it.

[qesehmk]

As of now I think that scenario doesn't need to get worse.

So, the earlier worst-case scenario of Oct-Nov 06 holds good OR does it appear like it is going to be more worse?

[TeddyKoochu]

One of the reasons why the trackitt data is reduced may be because the turn around time is so small. If my labor is getting approved in 20 days and my attorney tells me I will get a green card in 4 months after filing for I-140, then why would I want to even bother with finding out about whats happening with others? Just trying to understand the decrease here. Help me if you think there might be reasons other than decrease in the number of filings.

Exactly. That's how I look at it.

Friends refer to the following turn around times from TSC

I-140 - July 7, 2010
I-485 - June 26, 2010

Based on that I140 and I485 are still taking a while so there is a 6 month time lag for the new demand to hit the 485 queue. Additionally I140 approvals are still hard. Faster approvals are coming for porting cases where the previous 485 is already preadjudicated. Both EB2 ROW and EB1 were also current last year so the inclination / disinclination to create / update profiles should not change drastically. Lets hope for the best.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Makes sense. However thats the only way as of now how we can explain the disconnect between trackitt trend vs PERM & 140 data.

Friends refer to the following turn around times from TSC

I-140 - July 7, 2010
I-485 - June 26, 2010

Based on that I140 and I485 are still taking a while so there is a 6 month time lag for the new demand to hit the 485 queue. Additionally I140 approvals are still hard. Faster approvals are coming for porting cases where the previous 485 is already preadjudicated. Both EB2 ROW and EB1 were also current last year so the inclination / disinclination to create / update profiles should not change drastically. Lets hope for the best.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q Thanks, I agree. I believe that the prediction of the most pessimistic scenario as Oct - Nov 2006 is very tough, it would be almost terrible for everybody not only those who have a close miss but for all others further ahead in the queue. Is this the point with 22K SOFAD as Spec had calculated, I must admit that nothing is impossible and it is extremely prudent to know about the worse case scenario as well. If this scenario happens then it would be a really sad day for all the hopes that we have for Jul – Sep 2011.

[Spectator]

Friends refer to the following turn around times from TSC

I-140 - July 7, 2010
I-485 - June 26, 2010

Based on that I140 and I485 are still taking a while so there is a 6 month time lag for the new demand to hit the 485 queue. Additionally I140 approvals are still hard. Faster approvals are coming for porting cases where the previous 485 is already preadjudicated. Both EB2 ROW and EB1 were also current last year so the inclination / disinclination to create / update profiles should not change drastically. Lets hope for the best.

I think kd's idea is interesting. As you say, let's hope for the best.

To be honest, I've always thought of the Processing Dates as a "you can't enquire about your application until it is at least this old" message rather than being rooted in any reality. I suppose it might represent an average of some kind.

The fact that it has increased to over 4 months does indicate some backlogs.

From memory, EB2-ROW cases on Trackitt generally get approved in 3-4 months, although sometimes longer.

I agree that not much has changed since last year in terms of the I-485s.

However, PP only became available in mid 2009 and the overall process used to take a lot longer for many, when the I-140 generally took much longer to approve. I don't think Porting into EB2-ROW is a great issue at this time.

[qesehmk]

Q Thanks, I agree. I believe that the prediction of the most pessimistic scenario as Oct - Nov 2006 is very tough, it would be almost terrible for everybody not only those who have a close miss but for all others further ahead in the queue. Is this the point with 22K SOFAD as Spec had calculated, I must admit that nothing is impossible and it is extremely prudent to know about the worse case scenario as well. If this scenario happens then it would be a really sad day for all the hopes that we have for Jul – Sep 2011.

Yes. For sure it will be terrible for lot of EB2IC folks. The whole push behind clearing PERM and 140 to pave way for ROW itself is so unfair and suspicious. As I said ... people need to really think about their careers and life plans rather than hang their hat on when exactly the GC will arrive.

Someday it will arrrive for sure. But just hang in their and do something you really love. Dont let your dreams become hostage to GC. I personally have done that and regret that I kept waiting on GC to pursue some of the things that I really wanted to do long time back.

[Spectator]

Q Thanks, I agree. I believe that the prediction of the most pessimistic scenario as Oct - Nov 2006 is very tough, it would be almost terrible for everybody not only those who have a close miss but for all others further ahead in the queue. Is this the point with 22K SOFAD as Spec had calculated, I must admit that nothing is impossible and it is extremely prudent to know about the worse case scenario as well. If this scenario happens then it would be a really sad day for all the hopes that we have for Jul – Sep 2011.

Teddy,

If it's any consolation, my latest forecast is somewhat higher than 22k, but sadly not enough to clear 2006.

I certainly hope it does not reflect reality and as we both realize, there is sufficient uncertainty for quite a wide error margin. Obviously for my forecast that involves relatively less chance of lower SOFAD and more chance of higher SOFAD.

Even if we're starting to suspect that EB2 won't provide as many visas as we had hoped, EB1 still has the potential to supply far more than I am forecasting. If you are correct, then it would be enough to move nicely into 2007. So, even though I am the forum's resident pessimist, I don't think all is totally lost.

I do wish we could get some corroborative evidence about the state of EB1.