EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qblogfan]

Two thumbs up to Predictions 2.0!

Thanks Q, Teddy and Spec on your thoughts. With 12/2007 priority date I'll be eagerly waiting for the bulletin and your analysis ( or guidance?? like what companies give for the next quarter and year). Thanks a lot for your time and efforts in making predictions and calculations based on numbers and not shots in the dark or wishful thinking.

Q and Teddy -> I'm following your predictions from Immigration Voice site. Thanks a lot for your time, efforts and passion towards this. Also thanks a lot to Spectator and Veni for joining in Q and Teddy's efforts and making this site a very positive one where everyone respects one another. I used to visit other sites for info and news but now I've stopped visiting those alltogether. This is because here I dont have to go through pages of fights, bad behaviour, irrelevent posts to get to useful information that gives some hope.

Hats off to you guys, VDLRao was predictions 1.0 who started predictions with what ever data was available. You guys are Predictions 2.0 with numbers based intelligent predictions and calculations

[ragx08]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

AMEN!!!

Stay cool man! You should get there pretty soon!

[neospeed]

Hmm, trackitt down (:, looks like everyone bombarding it with requests.

[Spectator]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

soggadu,

In the great scheme of things 2.5k is nothing (if that were the figure).

Often there is a slow down in approvals in Q4 for EB1 and EB2-ROW, possibly EB5, so available SOFAD can rise.

As I've said before, the numbers appear close enough that DOS can now probably do what they want to do, regardless of the exact numbers left.

I hope so anyway!

[mpurna77]

Its not down...its crawling with requests:-)

[soggadu]

soggadu,

In the great scheme of things 2.5k is nothing (if that were the figure).

Often there is a slow down in approvals in Q4 for EB1 and EB2-ROW, possibly EB5, so available SOFAD can rise.

As I've said before, the numbers appear close enough that DOS can now probably do what they want to do, regardless of the exact numbers left.

I hope so anyway!

I agree...

[kolugc]

Q,S,V,TD....

Been following this forum for a month or so now... Every day I am learning new things... Excellent work guys...

From what ever I understood from this forum, this is what I have figured...

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even June 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

or

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even Apr 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: Apr 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)
May 2012: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

Is this a good assumption? I mean realistic, All this is based on what I read here as well as thinking that NVC is a good indication to predict as T mentioned above.

[pch053]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Spec,
I guess these pending numbers are probably from March'07 - Aug'07; they are saying that there are no pending numbers from 2006. So, I think they are considering almost all pending I485 up to March'07 have been approved, right? If our assumption of remaining spillovers is more towards 9,600 then PDs up to somewhere July'07 should get approval by the end of this year with a slim possibility of all remaining I485s might get approval. So the calculations are right on target so far.

P.S.: I think Q already answered the above question. Sorry, I missed Q's answer before posting!

[qesehmk]

A bit different ...

Aug 2011 - Jun 2007
Sep 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008
Oct 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008
Nov 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008 & bounce back to Mid 2007
Dec 2011 - Mid 2007

Q,S,V,TD....

Been following this forum for a month or so now... Every day I am learning new things... Excellent work guys...

From what ever I understood from this forum, this is what I have figured...

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even June 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

or

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even Apr 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: Apr 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)
May 2012: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

Is this a good assumption? I mean realistic, All this is based on what I read here as well as thinking that NVC is a good indication to predict as T mentioned above.

[iamdeb]

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

[zenmaster]

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

Not really. Check this Link - Para2.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

[kd2008]

Q, Spec, V, T Please check out this:

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_07142011.html

Notice a "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act" It does not even have a number. I wonder how it showed up on the mark-up agenda.

Markups are a big deal. That means they are ready to take a vote on the committee and send it from the committee to the house floor for vote.

Of course, Senate Democrats will never vote on any thing that does not include CIR. So its going to be dead on arrival in Senate.

Its really interesting how the legislative process works in the U.S.

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

[iamdeb]

Not really. Check this Link - Para2.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

As Spec pointed earlier to me
totals of documentarily qualified applicants (EB2) which have been reported
to VO is 125 plus the ones who got the NVC receipt recently(which I believe wont be much). the estimates of future number use and return rates is an unknown quantity so I guess there isn't any parameter to advance the date.
experts please share your views.

Thanks,

Deb

[gc_usa]

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

If we know how many left than we can say if it will be current this month or next ? Do you guys have any numbers ?

[qesehmk]

Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

[orangeca]

Don't know whether it is already posted: Fresh Demand Data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[nishant2200]

Don't know whether it is already posted: Fresh Demand Data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

It is already being discussed in last few pages. But nevertheless thanks for posting.

I know if it was some other website forums, people would pounce upon you for this, I have been there

[pch053]

This is probably a very basic question: for cumulative demand for EB2-ROW, it says 125 prior to Jan'11. But in the June data, we have seen a significant # of EB2-ROW pending cases from 2010 and 2011 (~10K - 11K). Does this mean, all (or most) of those EB2-ROW pending cases have been assigned a visa number, just like we are saying that all (or most) or EB2-I/C cases up to 7th March'07 have been allocated a visa number.

Thanks!

[qblogfan]

Those ROW EB2 are not ready for approval, so they are not counted as demand.

This is probably a very basic question: for cumulative demand for EB2-ROW, it says 125 prior to Jan'11. But in the June data, we have seen a significant # of EB2-ROW pending cases from 2010 and 2011 (~10K - 11K). Does this mean, all (or most) of those EB2-ROW pending cases have been assigned a visa number, just like we are saying that all (or most) or EB2-I/C cases up to 7th March'07 have been allocated a visa number.

Thanks!

[qblogfan]

Very good thought.

USCIS didn't accept any new 485 case (PD later than 07.07) in the past four years.

4 years!!!

Now it's time to open this gate, otherwise people have to wait for next summer. It will be 5 years!!!

Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

[qesehmk]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

[sswaitinggc]

Hi Experts , I understand most of you know acronym of the terms related to GC "ROW","EB2IC","USCIS","DOS" etc....but i am sure few (like me) does not know what they mean (i dont know what ROW, EB2IC mean), Can some one expand these acronym's or direct where we can get this info pls...

[qblogfan]

I have a question.

Based on my understanding, DOS determines PD using monthly quota.

India and China only have 250 quota monthly. Since we may have 6000 or less China and India EB2 left after this FY, so our number will be bigger than 250. But at the same time, the demand from ROW is only 10k. Do you think they will increase our monthly quota to 500/month or sth?

My point is that the PD movement next FY will be determined based on two factors:

1.)will DOS look at the demand at a monthly level, a quarter level or a yearly level?
2.)will DOS constrain India/China EB2 visa allocation to 250/month or consider EB2 as a whole?

Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

[ragx08]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

Thats great! Thanks to you and your source!!!