EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

You are not alone, friend. I hope we get through soon and lead a normal life.

Guys + 1 even I have exactly the same feeling, the Jul bulletin was the game changer that brought is straight to 2007. Even though I have not filed for 485 I definitely relieved now that the end is very much in sight.

[wantgcnow]

I only hope it would go well into 2008

[soggadu]

Q,

Can you plan for a tracker like trackitt... I vote for doing nothing name wise...

[imechanix]

Guys + 1 even I have exactly the same feeling, the Jul bulletin was the game changer that brought is straight to 2007. Even though I have not filed for 485 I definitely relieved now that the end is very much in sight.

Teddy & other PWMB's,

Finally, the end of the struggle is near soon. I hope you have your medicals done & ready to go. I just got it done (My PD June 07 & hoping to become current soon). It takes 20-30 days just to get immigration doctor's appointment. By the way, I did not have any vaccination records. They did a blood test & found antibodies present. So, I received only tetanus shot, my PPD was positive so the Dr. sent me to chest xray which was clear & marked Latent B TB which is ok. He did not write aything in Part 3 & 4 of the medical form.

Q,

I voted do nothing. I think people who have genuine interest in understanding visa allocation process & predictions will find this website by some way or other. Your forum is the least polluted & highly focused.

Thanks.

[MeraNoAayega]

Friends there are reports at many places now that the online systems are working atleast for EAD / AP, even Trackitt approvals are picking up now. Just saw a report on IV, User - abhay "My online status got changed after 2 Plus years, Now it says post decision activities and I got email and SMS last night. I think they are fixing the online system.
".

Even 485 approval emais/sms are working...

trackitt says 15 on 07/01 & 7 on 07/05....

[qesehmk]

Spec yes I did. Thank you.

1) Updated the head to reflect your numbers as well as current collective understanding.
2) Regarding name change.... so far people are favoring doing nothing. So if the trend continues the same, we will act immediately upon "Do Nothing"!! May be we can take down the poll in 2-3 days.
3) Last month I did submit the site to search engines that seems to have helped.

Q,

When you next update the front page, please also change my figures in the jpg as follows:

Avge. -- EB3->2+PWMB -- Net SOFAD -- Low -- High
35.0 ------- 5.0 --------- 30.0 --- 33.0 -- 38.0

I voted Do Nothing.

A redirect from a friendly name would be my second option, but that costs money and reduces the donations to good causes, unless the traffic is much higher.

On Google, the search term "Q Immigration" gives the third result and "Q Immigration Calculations" gives the second result.

Terms such as "Q Forum" or "Q Blog" do not return results on the first page, but as soon as the term "Immigration" is also included, the results become #3 and #1 respectively.

Q,
Can you plan for a tracker like trackitt... I vote for doing nothing name wise...

Soggadu, I think as long as trackitt keeps their data open, we can use it. Introducing a tracker would involve programming and customizing the vBulletin software which could be costly to code and then maintain.

p.s. sorry I didn't mean to say its not useful. Its just that we r running this site already in red.

[haripathhi]

Spec,

Well said! IMHO that's one factor that should be considered before going the redirect route. As always, you nailed it

Q,

When you next update the front page, please also change my figures in the jpg as follows:

Avge. -- EB3->2+PWMB -- Net SOFAD -- Low -- High
35.0 ------- 5.0 --------- 30.0 --- 33.0 -- 38.0

I voted Do Nothing.

A redirect from a friendly name would be my second option, but that costs money and reduces the donations to good causes, unless the traffic is much higher.

On Google, the search term "Q Immigration" gives the third result and "Q Immigration Calculations" gives the second result.

Terms such as "Q Forum" or "Q Blog" do not return results on the first page, but as soon as the term "Immigration" is also included, the results become #3 and #1 respectively.

[imdeng]

The fact is that this forum is quite difficult to find. I reached here only because Teddy's forum in IV mentioned the exact phrase to be googled. If the site starts becoming visible on search results for things like "EB2 Priority Date" or "EB2I PD Current" etc then there is no need to change anything. Even otherwise - I think people who need this info manage to find this site - the additional effort may not be worth the extra eyeballs.

[imdeng]

In case anyone ever had a doubt - Q's source was right - no VB on Fri.

I am intrigued by the lack of Demand Data for last two months. Why would USCIS go in data-hide-mode after sharing the same data for so long. Could it be that they are planning something that runs counter to the data - for example - extending PD beyond 07/07 while the data suggests that there are no more visa numbers available for doing that. Wishful thinking??

[qesehmk]

That is my hunch too! That is the reason I am thinking a 1 year forward and jump back movement is quite possible.

Why would USCIS go in data-hide-mode after sharing the same data for so long. Could it be that they are planning something that runs counter to the data ?

[Spectator]

In case anyone ever had a doubt - Q's source was right - no VB on Fri.

I am intrigued by the lack of Demand Data for last two months. Why would USCIS go in data-hide-mode after sharing the same data for so long. Could it be that they are planning something that runs counter to the data - for example - extending PD beyond 07/07 while the data suggests that there are no more visa numbers available for doing that. Wishful thinking??

imdeng,

That is what I am thinking as well.

Sometimes visibility is not a good thing.

CO apparently said the failure to publish the data for July was due to other urgent business and that it would resume.

If the VB isn't being published until next week, it might be a little early to see the Demand Data anyway. It has been provided as late as the 15th of the month.

We'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see it again this year.

[pch053]

As far as the demand data is concerned, I think it should be fine if they publish it Oct'11 or later. In that case, we will know the demand for the next year. Assuming they have filled in their buffer of new applications by moving the PD to 2008, we will also get a good feel of how the dates might move from May'12 and onwards. I think for this year, we pretty much know that the range of EB2I PDs that will be approved will be anywhere between June'07 - Aug'07.

[pdmarch282008]

After following this blog for so many weeks now, I finally took the plunge and registered myself. Like others here, this forum has been an amazing source of hope and fact driven information. Great work Q, Teddy and the others. I follow you guys on IV as well. I'd love to be supremely optimistic but knowing my luck I think I may have to wait for another year for my PD to be current. I'll be the happiest though if my PD becomes current in the next 2 months. I'll be celebrating 11 years iin America on the 26th of this month. The wait has been agonizing but it's been worse for many others. I always re-assure myself that if I am destined to get a green card, I will come what may. If I am not, I won't get one, no matter how hard I try. So why stress over it!!!

[haripathhi]

I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?

Why do you say I am not on H1 ?

Let me clarify, I am on H1 right now (extended beyond the 6 yrs for another 3 yrs according to the AC21 rules 106 or something like that). She is on H1 right now and MAY need to change to H4 before her H1 expires. There is absolutely nothing that prevents her from doing this. She can stay on H4 till I become current as I will be on H1 till I become current.

The basic question was when I do file my 485, will she get an EAD along with me. Her status potentially could be H4 at that time.

[immitrickz]

Annual IV Waiting List Report document page 8 states that "approximately ninety percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are currently being processed as adjustment of status cases at CIS offices".

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

EB2IC totals 4,372 which equates to 10% of the total waiting list. The total waiting list (100%) would be 43,720.

But "EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates" Link: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf Updated on 5/10/2011
has 29,600 as the demand.

How can one account for ~14k discrepancy here? Appreciate if you throw more light on this one.


Thanks

[Spectator]

Annual IV Waiting List Report document page 8 states that "approximately ninety percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are currently being processed as adjustment of status cases at CIS offices".

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

EB2IC totals 4,372 which equates to 10% of the total waiting list. The total waiting list (100%) would be 43,720.

But "EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates" Link: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf Updated on 5/10/2011
has 29,600 as the demand.

How can once account for ~14k discrepancy here? Appreciate if you throw more light on this one.

Thanks

immitrickz,

The NVC data is based on I-140 numbers received and dependents mentioned on them.

So the 4,372 is for all PDs of approved I-140 up to around October/ November 2010. Although received, most have not been processed to the point that they are considered "documentarily qualified". That only happens as the case approaches becoming Current.

On the other hand, the DOS demand data only shows demand for documentarily qualified cases (up to July/August 2007).

So it is comparing apples with oranges. Unfortunately, the NVC data is not further subdivided into year of PD.

PS It would be worse than you have calculated. For EB2, the CP rate historically is only 1-2%, so 4,372 would actually represent a much higher total figure (although the rate has probably increased for cases post the current backlog).

Calculations from the PERM data suggest, in the worst case, the number of I-485 still to be filed could be double the 44k you mention, although it is probably not quite that high.

[qesehmk]

Absolutely possible.

I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?

[gchopeful123]

Hi imechanix,

All the best to you. I am sure that you will be current in this bulletin. BTW, can you pl tell me how much the doctor charged for the entire process?

Teddy & other PWMB's,

Finally, the end of the struggle is near soon. I hope you have your medicals done & ready to go. I just got it done (My PD June 07 & hoping to become current soon). It takes 20-30 days just to get immigration doctor's appointment. By the way, I did not have any vaccination records. They did a blood test & found antibodies present. So, I received only tetanus shot, my PPD was positive so the Dr. sent me to chest xray which was clear & marked Latent B TB which is ok. He did not write aything in Part 3 & 4 of the medical form.

Q,

I voted do nothing. I think people who have genuine interest in understanding visa allocation process & predictions will find this website by some way or other. Your forum is the least polluted & highly focused.

Thanks.

[immitrickz]

Spec -

Thanks for the explanation. I am missing something here, not sure what it is .. I will get back in time..

[kpt112107]

Are we going to see Aug bulletin today? If yes, by what time in http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

[harick]

How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also count the number of years one spent on H4.

Thanks

[sssbpgmgc]

Regarding the domain name change, I voted for Do Nothing. But it doesn't mean literally do nothing. As I said in my earlier post, this forum needs serious SEO. It is really hard to find it via the normal keywords. There is no doubt if you google "q's immigration blog" it comes as number one result. But how a person who doesn't know this website exists can search that way? Common searches would be like "eb2 india predictions 2011, august 2011 visa bulletin, august visa bulletin predictions". None of these brings qesehmk.org on the first page. I am not a SEO pro, but with the little knowledge I have these are some things that will improve the forum's visibility:
1. Use most popular key words as much as possible through out the website (for example in the title, I mean in <title>here</title> helps a LOT. To get an idea look at slickdeals.net title )
2. Use meta words, this is a old technique, it helps, but I am not sure how much.
3. Links from other sites (greatly improves SE ranking). To achieve this, let us refer to this forum in all other immigration websites.
4. A relevant url helps a lot, but at this point I wouldn't recommend that. Rather you can register a catchy domain and redirect to here.
5. Use social networks like facebook and twitter. It helps spread the word as well as improving the SE ranking.
6. The homepage needs some work too. A site map kind of thing works really nice. Joomla would be cool and easy.
Also, monitor the ranking closely: http://www.alexa.com/search?q=www.qesehmk.org. If you see, currently "Sites Linking In" is 1. That needs to be improved.

[wantgcnow]

Are we going to see Aug bulletin today? If yes, by what time in http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

I will ask and let you know.....

[harick]

Absolutely possible.

Originally Posted by haripathhi
I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?

How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also counts the number of years one spent on H4.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Really appreciate your suggestions. I will try to work on them and get back to you.

p.s. - Meta tags is a really big thing we are missing. The SEO score is 1 out of 100 as far as meta tags is concerned. I do not know how to insert meta tags and where.

We already facebook connected. pls see at the top. But people are yet to adopt it in a big way.

Regarding the domain name change, I voted for Do Nothing. But it doesn't mean literally do nothing. As I said in my earlier post, this forum needs serious SEO. It is really hard to find it via the normal keywords. There is no doubt if you google "q's immigration blog" it comes as number one result. But how a person who doesn't know this website exists can search that way? Common searches would be like "eb2 india predictions 2011, august 2011 visa bulletin, august visa bulletin predictions". None of these brings qesehmk.org on the first page. I am not a SEO pro, but with the little knowledge I have these are some things that will improve the forum's visibility:
1. Use most popular key words as much as possible through out the website (for example in the title, I mean in <title>here</title> helps a LOT. To get an idea look at slickdeals.net title )
2. Use meta words, this is a old technique, it helps, but I am not sure how much.
3. Links from other sites (greatly improves SE ranking). To achieve this, let us refer to this forum in all other immigration websites.
4. A relevant url helps a lot, but at this point I wouldn't recommend that. Rather you can register a catchy domain and redirect to here.
5. Use social networks like facebook and twitter. It helps spread the word as well as improving the SE ranking.
6. The homepage needs some work too. A site map kind of thing works really nice. Joomla would be cool and easy.