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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #3476
    Quote Originally Posted by 08OCT2008 View Post
    Thanks !!

    It was Texas Service Center
    Congrats to your bro and sis in law. Looks like the online system is really not working, I haven’t heard one example thus far where somebody saw approved status online or received email / sms. So the updates looks will come by snail mail to the applicant (GC) or approval notice (Attorney), consequently the reporting will be significantly slower.

  2. #3477
    Quote Originally Posted by shreyasai2004 View Post
    Gurus,

    It's time to predict August Visa Bulliten. Let's predict it.
    I believe the range will be 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 with 6K to 8K numbers being allocated.

  3. #3478
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    There would still be some EB1 and EB2 ROW who will occupy some of the numbers which are there.
    either aug01-2007 or July15-2008

  4. #3479
    Q, Thanks for this update.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Friends,

    We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

  5. #3480

    Another Approval

    GC Time from Trackitt

    "I received my physical GC today in mail and have been reading lot of post from Trackitt, thought of sharing my experience for someone else who can benefit:

    My Priority Date: 14-Feb-2007 EB2 TSC
    RFE received for my 485 in Jan 2009 "

  6. #3481
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    It then seems that approvals are happening with the main catch being it will reported late as the online system is not getting updated. So, probably visa numbers are still available and we will hopefully see some forward movement in the Aug bulletin.

  7. #3482
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

    Just to be clear here are 2 things:
    1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
    2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.
    Q,

    Beautifully explained.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  8. #3483
    and also as I saw earlier too in a post, this is the second approval seen with date in Feb 2007. Which is really close to 8th March 2007. so they are feeling comfortable in approving these later dates, which are coming much later to the nov, dec, jan. I think that's a really good sign, touchwood.

  9. #3484
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

    Just to be clear here are 2 things:
    1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
    2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Q,

    Beautifully explained.
    Q well said + 1 to Spec. Slowly the approval reports are also picking up which is good news. Iam hopeful of 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 for the Aug bulletin.

  10. #3485
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Friends,

    We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.
    Why it has to be Wed/Thu and not Mon?
    This feeling of wait / anticipation is similar to the wait of 12th board exam results when the results would decide whether you would be doctor / engineer or don't know what.
    Last edited by gc0907; 07-07-2011 at 02:52 PM.

  11. #3486
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    and also as I saw earlier too in a post, this is the second approval seen with date in Feb 2007. Which is really close to 8th March 2007. so they are feeling comfortable in approving these later dates, which are coming much later to the nov, dec, jan. I think that's a really good sign, touchwood.
    my 100th post...

    Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...

  12. #3487
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    my 100th post...

    Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...
    + 1 Guys I believe within the cluster that is current they don't really seem to look at PD, it is just the lucky ones they are able to lay their hands on. The real litmus test is most people say that they are approved.

  13. #3488

    trackitt approvals so far

    Priority Date Total Cases Pending Approved Denied RFEs % Processed % Approved Average Processing Time

    Mar 2007 62 59 2 1 16 5% 3% 2 years 3 months
    Feb 2007 67 66 1 0 10 1% 1% 4 years 4 months
    Jan 2007 75 74 1 0 17 1% 1% 2 years 2 months
    Dec 2006 99 99 0 0 20 0% 0% N/A
    Nov 2006 93 86 4 3 10 8% 4% 3 years 6 months
    Oct 2006 81 59 22 0 17 27% 27% 4 years 7 months

  14. #3489
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    So we have 8 approvals from Nov'06 - March'07 with probably a few more from later half of Oct'06 for PDs that got current in the month of July. Considering that we are not seeing any email or online updates and all are through snail mail, this probably isn't that much a slowdown in # of approvals. I will assume this number to rise up in a week or so.

  15. #3490
    Great Point! I second this. However, as long as we hear approvals ticking, we should be good

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    my 100th post...

    Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...
    Last edited by haripathhi; 07-07-2011 at 04:14 PM. Reason: grammar

  16. #3491
    Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus , my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....

  17. #3492
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    So we have 8 approvals from Nov'06 - March'07 with probably a few more from later half of Oct'06 for PDs that got current in the month of July. Considering that we are not seeing any email or online updates and all are through snail mail, this probably isn't that much a slowdown in # of approvals. I will assume this number to rise up in a week or so.
    Quote Originally Posted by neospeed View Post
    Priority Date Total Cases Pending Approved Denied RFEs % Processed % Approved Average Processing Time

    Mar 2007 62 59 2 1 16 5% 3% 2 years 3 months
    Feb 2007 67 66 1 0 10 1% 1% 4 years 4 months
    Jan 2007 75 74 1 0 17 1% 1% 2 years 2 months
    Dec 2006 99 99 0 0 20 0% 0% N/A
    Nov 2006 93 86 4 3 10 8% 4% 3 years 6 months
    Oct 2006 81 59 22 0 17 27% 27% 4 years 7 months
    Guys I checked the I485 tracker, ordered by I485 approval / denial date with filters category = EB2 and country of chargeability = India there are only 2 approvals in Jul 2011 viz. vkkkantssv, atlperm1. Looks like something is definitely wrong with the online systems. Just saw another approval on IV - "nuvikas", he checked from the service centre.
    Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-07-2011 at 04:04 PM.

  18. #3493
    Quote Originally Posted by sswaitinggc View Post
    Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus , my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....
    check the trend analysis in facts and data section... spec has the data day by day for last 3 months...

  19. #3494
    Teddy

    Just playing devil's advocate....

    Even if something is wrong with USCIS/DOS systems.... what's teh problem with people updating trackitt once they get notification from their attorney?

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Guys I checked the I485 tracker, ordered by I485 approval / denial date with filters category = EB2 and country of chargeability = India there are only 2 approvals in Jul 2011 viz. vkkkantssv, atlperm1. Looks like something is definitely wrong with the online systems. Just saw another approval on IV - "nuvikas", he checked from the service centre.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #3495
    Here is my take on the rate of approvals for this month and date movement. Please feel free to correct me....

    Rate of Approvals - USCIS and DOS know the demand and supply of the visas. They have about 3 months to use up all the visas which they plan to do but they dont plan/cant approve the people who became current right away because of the backlog they have owing to rapid movements over the last couple of months. They have probably set a deadline of Sept 31st to use up the supply. Hence the approval rate for people this month is low. We may want to check the approval rate overall (people who have become current in May and June) and see if approvals for those people are still coming through. Another point is that people who are calling up are getting responses such as "your case is with an officer ..please call back in 30/60 days"

    PD movement - After the movements in May, June and July bulletin, USCIS and DOS have made up their mind for the cut-off dates in Aug and Sept. This movement is strictly policy related.

    Regards
    Nat

  21. #3496
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sswaitinggc View Post
    Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus , my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....
    sswaiting,

    It is not normal. Usually we would see the odd approval on the day or day after, but it usually takes about a week for most approvals to come in for a particular date.

    I think the on-line system being down is probably to blame.

    The number of approvals towards the end of June is also lower than I would have expected, possibly for the same reason.

    Until on-line notifications come back up, the delay may stretch to a couple of weeks.
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-07-2011 at 04:18 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  22. #3497
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy

    Just playing devil's advocate....

    Even if something is wrong with USCIS/DOS systems.... what's teh problem with people updating trackitt once they get notification from their attorney?
    Q if everyone updates their status then it would be great service to those of us waiting because it helps to increase visibility and traceability and helps us the project better a certain percentage 10-20% normally don't update historically. I see 2 categories a) Snail Mail to Attorney (Approval Notice) / Snail Mail (GC) to the applicant b) Checking with Service Centre. Now we may say that the long weekend caused the slow start but we had a long weekend last year as well, most of the approvals are from category a) which I believe will pick up next week considering mail delivery may take 4 business days, not all people have been able to reach level 2 IO's so category b) numbers are lower. As part of all the research (Refer my discussion with Veni) we can see a trend that even though the number of people current are more this time, the number of cases on Trackitt is less, so we should expect 1/3rd to 1/4th reports on Trackitt. However even after applying all the drastic scenarios we just have 2 approvals on Trackitt that leads me wondering, the situation definitely is still bad and needs to improve I hope by the next bulletin. The online systems definitely are not working.

  23. #3498
    I looked up the data from trackitt for same time but last year:

    485s_Approved Date
    28 07/01/2010
    26 07/02/2010
    0 07/03/2010
    1 07/04/2010
    0 07/05/2010
    14 07/06/2010
    37 07/07/2010
    34 07/08/2010

  24. #3499
    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    I looked up the data from trackitt for same time but last year:

    485s_Approved Date
    28 07/01/2010
    26 07/02/2010
    0 07/03/2010
    1 07/04/2010
    0 07/05/2010
    14 07/06/2010
    37 07/07/2010
    34 07/08/2010
    Thanks for this compilation, only a complete failure of the online system assuming numbers are available can justify this.

  25. #3500
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Thanks for this compilation, only a complete failure of the online system assuming numbers are available can justify this.
    I proposed this theory a while back that their IT systems maybe down, never thought it maybe closer to reality as much.

    I saw this post by a user on trackitt, reading which shows that there is great chance above is true, they say they are getting tons of calls from people.

    "I called USCIS and the customer rep. clearly told me that they are not going to transfer calls to Tier2 because apparently they have been inundated with calls all day asking them to transfer to tier 2. All she said is she can open an SR which I had already done on July 1. She did look at the details of that SR and tell me that the case has been transferred to a service center but no officer has been assigned to it yet to look at it. I was glad that she was able to give me that information. I think now I am going to wait until July 29 before I call them again. I absolutely felt guilty for calling them and bothering them and/or wasting their time because she kept repeating over and over that they have been getting calls all day asking for transfer to tier 2. I was very polite and she was too but she just kept repeating the same things over and over. I felt sorry for the woman.

    Good luck to everyone. I think I am just going to take it easy now and drink my cup of chai !"

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