EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Teddy nice thought process. See that's what I think people need to understand. That none of us have crystal balls really. There are lots of ifs and buts to lots of things and finally there is USCIS's discretion/policy.

Spec I fully agree with you both Mexico and Philippines will grab huge amount of visas for EB3 this year even more because the EB2 and EB1 usages are down. So if their EB1 and EB2 usage is less they can grab as much as 7K each so EB3 ROW cap might be reduced to as low as 22K with India and China getting their fair share, agree it can’t get any more drastic. 245I demand is still coming by. The more important point as you say is that approvals have been front loaded this year. Even for EB2 this time the spillover started in May rather than July. We should all be cognizant to the fact 25-26K SOFAD has been burnt out. The maximum we could really see over this would be another 12K. I believe they really intend to have September more as a finishing month we should see most of the spillover in Aug with September being spillover for spillover generated in the last quarter. Now how this 12K would come by I believe they used up 50% of EB5 so it could really be 4K each from EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 we cannot ignore the stockpile of the EB1 and Eb2 ROW applications that are there. I agree with Q that in reality the numbers are available only to approve pre-adjudicated cases till June. The coming 2 bulletins will have a huge element of discretion by the agencies if they decide to take up extra demand. Taking fresh intake till Q1 2008 is almost imperative but it is entirely discretionary when that’s going to happen. Today has not been a good day with regards approvals I did not see even a single approval anywhere I hope it’s the long weekend. The next VB will depend on how confident USCIS is about clearing cases that are current so early next week is critical the VB might come out the week following the next week.

Does the pre adjudication process mean that all I 485 up for visas will be approved? At least I haven't come across any denials in blogs etc. So if you are pre adjudicated and not denied as yet that means you are through or do they approve or deny only after your date is current.

I think so. If it was not approved-adjudicated why would it wait for a visa to be assigned.

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288

This pdf gives some insight about eb5 approvals

FY11 Q1&Q2 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

[qesehmk]

This is great info. Thanks neospeed. In summary it would mean 3200 EB5 visa grants for full year thus yielding approx 7K SOFAD.

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288

This pdf gives some insight about eb5 approvals

FY11 Q1&Q2 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

[Spectator]

Thanks neospeed for the great information.

This is great info. Thanks neospeed. In summary it would mean 3200 EB5 visa grants for full year thus yielding approx 7K SOFAD.

Q,

Those figures are for visas issued in Q1 & Q2, so the total for the year could be as high as 4.2k of the 9.9k available, if the trend continued in Q3 and Q4.

That would only be 5.7k towards spillover. Probably the truth lies somewhere between.

[qesehmk]

Spec

So yes ... 1600 for Q1/2 means 3200 for full year right?

Thanks neospeed for the great information.



Q,

Those figures are for visas issued in Q1 & Q2, so the total for the year could be as high as 4.2k of the 9.9k available, if the trend continued in Q3 and Q4.

That would only be 5.7k towards spillover. Probably the truth lies somewhere between.

[Spectator]

Spec

So yes ... 1600 for Q1/2 means 3200 for full year right?

Q,

You need to look at page 13 of the PDF.

Fiscal Year and/or Quarters -- Total EB-5 Visas Issued
---- FY11 Q1&Q2 ---------------- 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

That is the total number of visas issued, as mentioned by neospeed.

I believe the 1,601 mentioned on page 9 is the number of I-526 filing receipts.

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=2&charttype=1 shows that receipts of I-526 are on the increase and the pending backlog is more than sufficient for a repeat number of visas to be issued in the second half of the year.

Perhaps more importantly, there appears to be the political will to speed up the processing time for EB5. With that in mind, a return to the level seen in FY2009 of 4.2k does not seem inconceivable.

[qesehmk]

This whole thing is quite confusing. I don't claim to know it well. But from what I understand, EB5 visa issued is not necessarily same as the DoS EB5 green card visa number. Pls check the EB5 process at
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

That EB5 visa is the visa issued at overseas posts. Now its possible that people with approved 526 from prior year are choosing to stamp passports this year and hence the visas issued in passport are at a higher level.

But if you think YoY increase .... its quite clear the increase is only 30%. So probably we should expect to see 2480*1.3 = 3224 numbers issued this year. That means 7K SOFAD. Makes sense?

p.s. - I tried to tie all these numbers with each other and the prior actual data for prior years .... but nothing matches quite well. Its a mystery why DoS publishes non-sensical data. But as always I like YoY data which is very safe to use and hence 130% increase when applied to last year approvals should be a good indicator of where things will stand this year. What do you think?

Q,

You need to look at page 13 of the PDF.

Fiscal Year and/or Quarters -- Total EB-5 Visas Issued
---- FY11 Q1&Q2 ---------------- 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

That is the total number of visas issued, as mentioned by neospeed.

I believe the 1,601 mentioned on page 9 is the number of I-526 filing receipts.

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=2&charttype=1 shows that receipts of I-526 are on the increase and the pending backlog is more than sufficient for a repeat number of visas to be issued in the second half of the year.

Perhaps more importantly, there appears to be the political will to speed up the processing time for EB5. With that in mind, a return to the level seen in FY2009 of 4.2k does not seem inconceivable.

[Spectator]

This whole thing is quite confusing. I don't claim to know it well. But from what I understand, EB5 visa issued is not necessarily same as the DoS EB5 green card visa number. Pls check the EB5 process at
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

That EB5 visa is the visa issued at overseas posts. Now its possible that people with approved 526 from prior year are choosing to stamp passports this year and hence the visas issued in passport are at a higher level.

But if you think YoY increase .... its quite clear the increase is only 30%. So probably we should expect to see 2480*1.3 = 3224 numbers issued this year. That means 7K SOFAD. Makes sense?

p.s. - I tried to tie all these numbers with each other and the prior actual data for prior years .... but nothing matches quite well. Its a mystery why DoS publishes non-sensical data. But as always I like YoY data which is very safe to use and hence 130% increase when applied to last year approvals should be a good indicator of where things will stand this year. What do you think?

Q,

It is possible that people are delaying the Consular Interview, but that is probably still the case, so it evens out. The pending numbers for I-526 mean there are more than enough applications for high approvals this FY.

The figures of 1,885 for FY2010 and 4,218 for FY2009 visa issuance on page 13 match exactly to the figures published by DOS on the Visa Statistics page http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tics_1476.html. The earlier years don't match exactly, but close enough.

The 30% increase is on filings in HALF a year compared to a WHOLE year, although the dates given in the table on page 7 are actually only for a QUARTER of a year (10/01/2010 – 12/31/2010), so the underlying increase is far higher than 30%. e.g 110 in all FY2010 versus 146 in Q1-Q2 FY2011. The actual underlying increase is actually 165%, not 33% as presented in the table.

I am not saying the figures WILL double, only that there is no underlying reason why they cannot. Clearly the numbers will be far higher than last year, although it still isn't a large number in the grand scheme of things.

PS I can't work out where your 2,480 came from, but your calculation would become 2,480*2.65 = 6,596. I would see it more as 1,855*2.65 = 4,916 but I think that is too high. Double the Q1-Q2 FY visa issuance of 2,129 would give an increase of 130% on the FY2010 figure of 1,885.

[veni001]

Q,

It is possible that people are delaying the Consular Interview, but that is probably still the case, so it evens out. The pending numbers for I-526 mean there are more than enough applications for high approvals this FY.

The figures of 1,885 for FY2010 and 4,218 for FY2009 visa issuance on page 13 match exactly to the figures published by DOS on the Visa Statistics page http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tics_1476.html. The earlier years don't match exactly, but close enough.

The 30% increase is on filings in HALF a year compared to a WHOLE year, although the dates given in the table on page 7 are actually only for a QUARTER of a year (10/01/2010 – 12/31/2010), so the underlying increase is far higher than 30%. e.g 110 in all FY2010 versus 146 in Q1-Q2 FY2011. The actual underlying increase is actually 165%, not 33% as presented in the table.

I am not saying the figures WILL double, only that there is no underlying reason why they cannot. Clearly the numbers will be far higher than last year, although it still isn't a large number in the grand scheme of things.

PS I can't work out where your 2,480 came from, but your calculation would become 2,480*2.65 = 6,596. I would see it more as 1,855*2.65 = 4,916 but I think that is too high. Double the Q1-Q2 FY visa issuance of 2,129 would give an increase of 130% on the FY2010 figure of 1,885.

Spec,
Yes, it is possible that USCIS may be able to process more EB5 application in Q3-Q4, with their new efforts.
But couple of points to note , 1) based on Q1&Q2 completions, EB5 approval rate is about 81% 2) EB5 approvals are taking about 5.5 months (as of Q2).

[veni001]

Under the U.S. Department of State policy, the visa numbers are allocated quaterly in compliance with certain standards such that the visa numbers are managed and distributed in a regulated and orderly matter considering the trend of demands for the visa numbers by the USCIS and Visa Posts outside of the United States. The last quarter allocation has historally shown unpredictable fluctuation depending on the pace of demand by the USCIS and Visa Posts since the annual visa quota numbers will have to be used before September 30, 2011 not to waste the annual visa quota numbers. One famous record with devastating and embarassing consequences was so-called FY 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco. The State Department determined that there had been a large number of EB visa numbers yet to be consumed during the 4th quarter of FY 2007 that starts on July 2007 and in order not to waste any visa numbers, it released July 2007 Visa Bulletin with all the EB-2 and EB-3 visa numbers "current." As usual, the July 2007 Visa Bulletin was released in June 2007. It led to the complete exhaustion of the FY 2007 EB visa numbers in a matter of days in July 2007, overpowering the capacity of the USCIS to manage the avalanche of I-485 applications and ancillary applications of EAD and Advance Parole. Worse yet, the State Department apparently belatedly miscalculated the USCIS demand, which was detected by the USCIS fax to the Visa Bureau, the State Department released amended July 2007 Visa Bulletin with cut-off dates on July 1, 2007. Facing legality of such action, followed by class action lawsuits, apparently the USCIS and the State Department reached an unusual agreement that the earlier release of Visa Bulletin will not allow the USCIS and visa posts to approve immigrant visas or approve I-485 unless the priority date was earlier than July 2007, but the USCIS will accept new I-485 applications regardless of the priority date, no matter whether there were any remaining visa numbers for FY 2007 or not. This literally opened a flood gate! This decision took time with very complicated legal and administration process within the government. This created another problem. The USCIS released final regulation changing immigration filing fees effective end of July 2007. Consequently, the action of the Visa Bureau tremendously disrupted the USCIS financial plan involving the fee structure changes and fee increases for its funding. Literally there was a mess. That is why it was called a "FIASCO."

The agencies have learned a good lesson on importance of close coordination between the State Deparment and the USCIS and this reproter guarantees that "It Ain't Going to Repeat" in August Visa Bulletin. The eyes of the Indians and Chinese are focused on the upcoming Visa Bulletin because they know that depending on the demand data and the total of the reserve for the rest of the fiscal year 2011, it can go either way - continuing EB visa number progression for Indians and Chinese or halt or even backward movement of the cut-off dates for Indians and Chinese in the worst case. No one knows the answer at this time, even though there is a speculation that it may remain stand-still in August. But we will find it out soon. Until that time, please enjoy the nation's important Independence Day, the Fourth of July. There will be lots of fireworks and concerts around. Lots of Red/Blue/White color decorations, not to mention American flags all over. Let's celebrate!

Courtesy: Oh Law Firm(07/02/11)

[Spectator]

Spec,
Yes, it is possible that USCIS may be able to process more EB5 application in Q3-Q4, with their new efforts.
But couple of points to note , 1) based on Q1&Q2 completions, EB5 approval rate is about 81% 2) EB5 approvals are taking about 5.5 months (as of Q2).

Veni,

That is why I said in my original post that "Probably the truth lies somewhere between."

Using the 81% figure and the 2,064 pending plus 429 awaiting Customer action as of April (which have time to be approved this FY) gives 2,022 approvals in Q3-Q4 FY2011.

Adding that to the 2,129 visas issued in Q1-Q2 FY2011 gives 4,151 approvals for the year, or more than double the number approved in FY2010.

On that basis, spare visas from EB5 would be about 5.8k, compared to the 8.8k received in FY2010.

That is just an example, since it is impossible to know what is going to happen. Perhaps 500 either way.

[veni001]

Veni,

That is why I said in my original post that "Probably the truth lies somewhere between."

Using the 81% figure and the 2,064 pending as of April (which have time to be approved this FY) gives 1,674 approvals in Q3-Q4 FY2011.

Adding that to the 2,129 visas issued in Q1-Q2 FY2011 gives 3,803 approvals for the year, or about double the number approved in FY2010.

On that basis, spare visas from EB5 would be about 6.1k, compared to the 8.8k received in FY2010.

That is just an example, since it is impossible to know what is going to happen.

Spec,
I agree, definitely we are not going to get similar spillover form EB5 this year, and most likely not in the coming year(s) also.

[veni001]

Is available online.

On June 29, 2011, Ombudsman January Contreras submitted the 2011 Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman’s Annual Report to Congress

[Spectator]

Is available online.

On June 29, 2011, Ombudsman January Contreras submitted the 2011 Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman’s Annual Report to Congress

Veni,

Thanks for the heads up. I'll read it when I have the time.

[qesehmk]

Spec Veni

I think now I have better understanding of EB5 thanks to our discussion. First lets establish EB5 process. So here it goes.

It seems I526 is equivalent to I140. And then an investor can either adjust status using 485 or CP (where EB5 visa is physically stamped). I829 just an additional step of confirming the conditional residence granted under EB5 program. So I829 is consequential since the visa numbers were already allocated under I526.

So forget everything else and simply focus on 526 completions. Following table shows rolling 12 months receipts & completions respectively. Receipts as you can see are increasing very fast (some combination of economic conditions and growing frustration in other categories). BUT .... and this is a big BUT ... the USCIS processing is not keeping pace and so I am 99% confident this year the SOFAD from EB5 will be very very similar to last year. Take a look at rolling 12 months data below.


Rolling 12 months numbers for EB5
Month Receipts Completions
Feb10 1241 1117
Mar10 1345 1304
Apr10 1404 1281
May10 1425 1231
Jun10 1509 1317
Jul10 1524 1335
Aug10 1565 1307
Sep10 1660 1315
Oct10 1733 1272
Nov10 1842 1204
Dec10 2016 1179
Jan11 2076 974
Feb11 2205 952
Mar11 2435 1045
Apr11 2611 1042

So lets calculate now. Full year approvals of 526 will be probably between 1000-1300 (even if USCIS accelerates). YTD they are 407 per the aila report page 10. So full year 1000-1300 matches with that. Now applying a factor of 2.65 for dependents that's 2.7-3.5K visas. It means the SOFAD from EB5 will be just like last year between 8-7K.

Critique and tear this logic.

[veni001]

Spec Veni

I think now I have better understanding of EB5 thanks to our discussion. First lets establish EB5 process. So here it goes.

It seems I526 is equivalent to I140. And then an investor can either adjust status using 485 or CP (where EB5 visa is physically stamped). I829 just an additional step of confirming the conditional residence granted under EB5 program. So I829 is consequential since the visa numbers were already allocated under I526.

So forget everything else and simply focus on 526 completions. Following table shows rolling 12 months receipts & completions respectively. Receipts as you can see are increasing very fast (some combination of economic conditions and growing frustration in other categories). BUT .... and this is a big BUT ... the USCIS processing is not keeping pace and so I am 99% confident this year the SOFAD from EB5 will be very very similar to last year. Take a look at rolling 12 months data below.

..............
..............
..............

So lets calculate now. Full year approvals of 526 will be probably between 1000-1300 (even if USCIS accelerates). YTD they are 407 per the aila report page 10. So full year 1000-1300 matches with that. Now applying a factor of 2.65 for dependents that's 2.7-3.5K visas. It means the SOFAD from EB5 will be just like last year between 8-7K.

Critique and tear this logic.

Q,
Let me present the worst case scenario...

Based on USCIS presentation(AILA report) as of Q2 there are 407 approval (~81%) and 96 denials(~19%) and from USCIS dash board report there are 2,257 pending I-526 applications(as of March 2011).

Now let's assume USCIS will process all pending I-526 as of Q2 (in reality some new applications will be processed and some old still remain pending) and apply Q1&Q2 approval percentages to that number.

Which means an additional 1,828 approvals and brings total I-526 approvals for FY2011 to 2,235.

Not sure why you are using 2.65 multiplication factor but i will stick to our EB5-485 ratio calculation(2.90) from FACTS AND DATA section.

This brings total EB5 usage for FY 2011 to 6,482 and yield only 3,458 to EB1-->EB2IC.

[qesehmk]

I am ok with whatever teh factor is 2.65 or 2.9

But I think I am in diagreement over USCIS processing the pending inventory. The reason being ... just look at the rolling 12 months data. The inventory has nt built in a day.. It's result of systemic delays driven most likely by the eligibility of the applications rather than ability of USCIS to process them.

Q,
Let me present the worst case scenario...

Based on USCIS presentation(AILA report) as of Q2 there are 407 approval (~81%) and 96 denials(~19%) and from USCIS dash board report there are 2,257 pending I-526 applications(as of March 2011).

Now let's assume USCIS will process all pending I-526 as of Q2 (in reality some new applications will be processed and some old still remain pending) and apply Q1&Q2 approval percentages to that number.

Which means an additional 1,828 approvals and brings total I-526 approvals for FY2011 to 2,235.

Not sure why you are using 2.65 multiplication factor but i will stick to our EB5-485 ratio calculation(2.90) from FACTS AND DATA section.

This brings total EB5 usage for FY 2011 to 6,482 and yield only 3,458 to EB1-->EB2IC.

[veni001]

I am ok with whatever teh factor is 2.65 or 2.9

But I think I am in diagreement over USCIS processing the pending inventory. The reason being ... just look at the rolling 12 months data. The inventory has nt built in a day.. It's result of systemic delays driven most likely by the eligibility of the applications rather than ability of USCIS to process them.

Q,
I wouldn't argue on that. Unless otherwise USCIS is convinced that the legibility of the investor & the investment, they will not approve I-526.
I was just presenting the worst case scenario based on the pending applications. In either case i would at least count EB5 usage for FY2011 at FY2009 level.

[Spectator]

..... so I am 99% confident this year the SOFAD from EB5 will be very very similar to last year.

Unless there are no further visas issued in Q3 & Q4, that is impossible, based on the figures presented in the pdf.

Page 13 shows that 2,129 visas have already been issued in Q1 & Q2 FY2011.

The allocation this year is 9,940, so SOFAD at the end of Q2 stands at 7,811.

Last year, SOFAD from EB5 was 10,697 - 1,885 = 8,812, so it is already 1K less after only 6 months.

Ultimately, we are only talking about 1-3k, so it is not worth disagreeing over.

[Spectator]

Is available online.

On June 29, 2011, Ombudsman January Contreras submitted the 2011 Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman’s Annual Report to Congress

I had a skim through it and it is very disappointing as far as EB is concerned.

About the only good note, is that he continues to bring up the extended approval times for EADs and the wish to reinstate interim EADs issued at Local Offices.

[qesehmk]

We already discussed. Those it seems are visa stampings rather than 2011 visa allocation.

Otherwise to equate 407 cases to 2129 means every family get 5 numbers. Thats impossible especially considering most of the EB5s are chinese!! Just kidding!

But 5 is a terrible factor and can only mean that those 2129 can't be correlated with 407 approvals of I-526 this year.

Page 13 shows that 2,129 visas have already been issued in Q1 & Q2 FY2011.

[veni001]

I had a skim through it and it is very disappointing as far as EB is concerned.

About the only good note, is that he continues to bring up the extended approval times for EADs and the wish to reinstate interim EADs issued at Local Offices.

Spec,
Agree, not much other than the improved visibility they have been providing since last couple of years.

[Spectator]

We already discussed. Those it seems are visa stampings rather than 2011 visa allocation.

Otherwise to equate 407 cases to 2129 means every family get 5 numbers. Thats impossible especially considering most of the EB5s are chinese!! Just kidding!

But 5 is a terrible factor and can only mean that those 2129 can't be correlated with 407 approvals of I-526 this year.

Q,

Let's just say that the approval of the I-526 is only the first step towards the final issuance of a visa, so it is an erroneous assumption to equate 407 approvals to 2,129 visas issued.

I would say it is unlikely that many, if any, visas have yet been issued as a result of those 407 approvals.

I will leave it at that.

[veni001]

We already discussed. Those it seems are visa stampings rather than 2011 visa allocation.

Otherwise to equate 407 cases to 2129 means every family get 5 numbers. Thats impossible especially considering most of the EB5s are chinese!! Just kidding!

But 5 is a terrible factor and can only mean that those 2129 can't be correlated with 407 approvals of I-526 this year.

Q,
First,USCIS presentation (aila document) shows EB5 usage as preliminary estimate!
Second, USCIS dash board shows 582 completion(I-526) from Q1&Q2, if we take Sept 2010 completions(100) towards 2011-485 usage(considering delay related to IV appointments at consular posts) then EB5 ratio will be 3.85 ( remember 2006 EB5 usage ratio is 3.16)

So the conclusion is, USCIS used ballpark numbers in it's presentation!

[qesehmk]

Sorry I didnt understand ... but lets agree to disagree.

Q,

Let's just say that the approval of the I-526 is only the first step towards the final issuance of a visa, so it is an erroneous assumption to equate 407 approvals to 2,129 visas issued.

I would say it is unlikely that many, if any, visas have yet been issued as a result of those 407 approvals.

I will leave it at that.

Q,
First,USCIS presentation (aila document) shows EB5 usage as preliminary estimate!
Second, USCIS dash board shows 582 completion(I-526) from Q1&Q2, if we take Sept 2010 completions(100) towards 2011-485 usage(considering delay related to IV appointments at consular posts) then EB5 ratio will be 3.85 ( remember 2006 EB5 usage ratio is 3.16)

So the conclusion is, USCIS used ballpark numbers in it's presentation!

I didn't understand. But I agree that the numbers in presentation could be ballpark. Anyway ... that's enough discussion. I think we are quite convinced that the dashboard approvals don;t time well with the EB5 usage in the aila document. The question is why?