EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[gcq]

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogsp...ypothesis.html

IMO July fiasco (making everything current) was the effect of CIR 2007. That was intentional move by DOS in anticipation of a passage of CIR. When they were sure that CIR won't pass, they reverted the bulletin back and rest is history.


Here are the dates:

CIR 2007 introduced in Senate on: May 9, 2007
CIR Vote on cloture fails in Senate: June 7 2007July 2007 visa bullettin released on :June 12 2007.

A related bill S. 1639 fails on: June 28, 2007
Bulletin was reversed on :July 2, 2007

S. 1639 failed on June 28, visa bulletin was reversed on July 2
July visa bulletin had already come out on June 12 2007.
The decision to publish this bulletin might have been taken sometime in May 2007.
Even if we base the events on the Original CIR 2007 which failed on June 7 2007, it would have taken sometime to communicate the decision to revert the bulletin to USCIS.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[qesehmk]

certainly very interesting thanks! Gave you a props for this.

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogsp...ypothesis.html

[bieber]

Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion'

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one

[Spectator]

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.

KD,

I humbly disagree.

NSC and TSC (which is all that counts for EB) take in about 16k applications a month (averaged Oct 2009 to April 2011) and some of those are refugee and asylum cases.

Last time, it took over a year to pre-adjudicate the cases, once they started in around September 2008.

Whilst that was for a larger number (170k), I don't think they have that sort of resource available to them now for a repeat performance.

The best the two Service Centers have ever managed in a single month for receipts since October 2008 is just over 20k.

[gcseeker]

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

[qesehmk]

agree lets take it there!

Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion'

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one

[Gclongwait]

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

I agree. I dont think they are going to make it current. Infact I think if they have to move ahead to Q1/Q2 '08 or wherever (based on NVC fee receipts), they should do it in the August bulletin rather than Sep. The reasoning is

1. They would move it for 2 reasons, to get an idea of the future pipeline and to make sure they dont waste visas. They probably wont waste visas even if they probably dont move it but they dont know that for sure

2. From what I heard if you are current in August, your interview is scheduled for Sep at the consulate and you have to be current at the time of the interview, so moving in August is the only way to use CP folks for consuming visas.

So if it doesnt happen next week, I think the chances in Sep may be even lesser.

[Stemcell]

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogsp...ypothesis.html

In a lighter vein.....CIR was introduced again in June 2011 so lets see

[kolugc]

I am fairly new here. It took 3 days for me to go through those 136 pages here, but was really a great experience reading it. Never been to an informative site as this one before. I had seen some other predictions, but was thinking those were just guesses, may be they were not, but here I see the technical backings for any predictions and so its more convincing and makes sense.

Thank you guys for putting up something together and holding it out there. Mostly its very informative and helps to understand how these things work. And it really helps to have some calculated plans for my life and career.

With all those reliable information and assumptions we have now, is it realistic to assume the following predictions to happen?

Aug - 01-JUN-2007
Sep - 15-AUG-2007 (or/between) 15-Jun-2008
Oct - 15-Jun-2008 (or/between) 01-JUN-2007 (retrogressed)

I am such a rookie and so had never heard about the NVC fee requests or CP before, now that I read that NVC fee was requested for a June 14, 2008 PD EB2 I, can I assume that the EB2I dates are going to move to June 15, 2008 in another 2-4 months for sure (100%)? or its not necessarily that way all the time?

My PD is June 9, 2008 and thats how I got so keen to investigate more on this NVC fee for this EB2I guy and its after affects...

Once again thanks guys for educating me and many here...

[nishant2200]

http://www.immigration-information.c...36/index2.html

see here the reply by Peter Clark on 6/29/2011. This is coming from reputed attorney, he is partner of Ron Gotcher.

"The NVC will proactively send the immigrant visa Fee bill in advance of your priority date becoming current. This is particularly true if they feel that it is likely that your priority date will become current soon. Our firm has seen cases with 2008 priority dates where the NVC has issued the immigrant visa fee bill and we have proceeded with the filing of the consular processing application. Now it is a matter of waiting for the priority date to become current."

[suninphx]

In a lighter vein.....CIR was introduced again in June 2011 so lets see

On another lighter note most of the recent posts ( including mine) prove the fact that our thoughts are primarily driven by our PD.

[veni001]

http://www.immigration-information.c...36/index2.html

see here the reply by Peter Clark on 6/29/2011. This is coming from reputed attorney, he is partner of Ron Gotcher.

"The NVC will proactively send the immigrant visa Fee bill in advance of your priority date becoming current. This is particularly true if they feel that it is likely that your priority date will become current soon. Our firm has seen cases with 2008 priority dates where the NVC has issued the immigrant visa fee bill and we have proceeded with the filing of the consular processing application. Now it is a matter of waiting for the priority date to become current."

I think this is the first time, since we started seeing NVC Fee request posts, some one from a law firm confirming it.
Which means, most like we will see EB2IC cutoff dates move to early 2008 in August '11 VB itself, to accommodate CP interviews at consulates abroad before end of FY 2011!(Aug & Sept)!

[kd2008]

KD,

I humbly disagree.

NSC and TSC (which is all that counts for EB) take in about 16k applications a month (averaged Oct 2009 to April 2011) and some of those are refugee and asylum cases.

Last time, it took over a year to pre-adjudicate the cases, once they started in around September 2008.

Whilst that was for a larger number (170k), I don't think they have that sort of resource available to them now for a repeat performance.

The best the two Service Centers have ever managed in a single month for receipts since October 2008 is just over 20k.

Spec, I think most of the applications now go to a lockbox. But still, application intake is totally different than adjudication process. Moreover, considering USCIS transformation expenses, fall in revenue from past years etc, USCIS would more than welcome an infusion of cash whether or not the have the capacity to handle it.

[neospeed]

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogsp...ypothesis.html

Here is another explaination from Ron Gotcher regarding the July fiasco:

http://www.immigration-information.c...-reform-13887/

First, I have to object to the use of the term "fiasco." That is a CIS term. To them it was a fiasco, but one that was prompted by their incompetence. For everyone else, it was a welcome slap in the face of the CIS that forced them to get their act together and start doing their job.

The CIS did not then and does not now have anything at all to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates are managed by the State Department. That agency is responsible for allocating visas each year and, more importantly, seeing to it that visas are not wasted under the quota. According to the USCIS Ombudsman, prior to 2007 the INS and the CIS, through their incompetence, had wasted more than 600,000 visas in the 1995-2006 interval. They did this by failing to approve enough adjustment of status applications each year to use up the quota. If visas are not used in the year in which they are allocated, they are lost forever.

In 2007, the State Department saw that the CIS was on pace to approve about 85,000 adjustment applications. That would have resulted in at least 40,000 visas being wasted. To prevent that from happening, the State Department decided to make everyone "current" in the month of July. That allowed overseas consular posts to issue visas to people who had opted for consular processing and those additional visa issuances would have then exhausted the quota. It also acted as a humiliating slap in the face to the CIS and forced them to start approving cases at a faster rate.

[veni001]

Here is another explaination from Ron Gotcher regarding the July fiasco:

http://www.immigration-information.c...-reform-13887/

First, I have to object to the use of the term "fiasco." That is a CIS term. To them it was a fiasco, but one that was prompted by their incompetence. For everyone else, it was a welcome slap in the face of the CIS that forced them to get their act together and start doing their job.

The CIS did not then and does not now have anything at all to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates are managed by the State Department. That agency is responsible for allocating visas each year and, more importantly, seeing to it that visas are not wasted under the quota. According to the USCIS Ombudsman, prior to 2007 the INS and the CIS, through their incompetence, had wasted more than 600,000 visas in the 1995-2006 interval. They did this by failing to approve enough adjustment of status applications each year to use up the quota. If visas are not used in the year in which they are allocated, they are lost forever.

In 2007, the State Department saw that the CIS was on pace to approve about 85,000 adjustment applications. That would have resulted in at least 40,000 visas being wasted. To prevent that from happening, the State Department decided to make everyone "current" in the month of July. That allowed overseas consular posts to issue visas to people who had opted for consular processing and those additional visa issuances would have then exhausted the quota. It also acted as a humiliating slap in the face to the CIS and forced them to start approving cases at a faster rate.

Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."

neospeed,
Which is true before July 2007 but not any more......

[Osaka001]

kd2008,
Based on the PERM certification data, there are ~100k EBIC PERM since July 2007 and another 100K ROWMP PERM. If we use 70-30 for IC and 60-40 for ROWMP, then there isn't big difference between making EB2IC current Vs making every one current! (140k new filings Vs 300k)

Just for number sake, EB2IC demand ~= EB3IC+EB3ROWMP demand.

What DOS is supposed to do, when more visas are available than the number of documentarily qualified people, They need to make it current? or It is their discretion to move it to any date?, Is there any policy about it.
Can USCIS guide them to move date as per the I-140 data available with them.

[qesehmk]

Technically visas cant fall down to EB3 unless EB2 category becomes current. That's why the August movement will be so much critical because it will be indicative of whether there is enough SOFAD that can result in FD to EB3.

What DOS is supposed to do, when more visas are available than the number of documentarily qualified people, They need to make it current? or It is their discretion to move it to any date?,
Can USCIS guide them to move date as per the I-140 data available with them.

[gcq]

As far as Ron Gotcher is concerned, I have observed that he has a "soft corner" for DOS(visa office). I have never seen him criticize CO despite CO making lots of mistakes.

Some of them.
Incorrectly interpreting AC21 spillover.
EB3-I/C discrimination in 2009.
Latest, COs rumor(predictions) about EB3-to Eb2 upgrades and how it is going to slow down EB2 PDs. This caused panic in internet forums which was later proven wrong by date movement in last 2 visa bulletins.

IMO CO should be making a lawful progression of PDs rather than speculating and creating sensation.

[veni001]

What DOS is supposed to do, when more visas are available than the number of documentarily qualified people, They need to make it current? or It is their discretion to move it to any date?, Is there any policy about it.
Can USCIS guide them to move date as per the I-140 data available with them.

Osaka001,
In that case what could happen is...

1. Significant forward movement for EB2IC cut-off dates( or even "C") so that CP cases can consume those additional VISAs
2. In-addition to #1, significant forward movement for EB3ROWMP cut-off dates to utilize any spillover that may be available( chances are minimal to none) from EB2-->EB3

But i would guess, just like other Guru's here, the reality will be in between and the actual decision will be based on DOS/USCIUS coordination/discretion.

[shivarajan]

I think this is the first time, since we started seeing NVC Fee request posts, some one from a law firm confirming it.
Which means, most like we will see EB2IC cutoff dates move to early 2008 in August '11 VB itself, to accommodate CP interviews at consulates abroad before end of FY 2011!(Aug & Sept)!

Sounds great & exciting!
(all we need is damm ead)

May the force be with us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Osaka001,
In that case what could happen is...

1. Significant forward movement for EB2IC cut-off dates( or even "C") so that CP cases can consume those additional VISAs
2. In-addition to #1, significant forward movement for EB3ROWMP cut-off dates to utilize any spillover that may be available( chances are minimal to none) from EB2-->EB3

But i would guess, just like other Guru's here, the reality will be in between and the actual decision will be based on DOS/USCIUS coordination/discretion.

Veni, you are right now it’s really upto DOS / USCIS discretion. Another 12 of SOFAD is possible and that can clean all the preadjudicated cases completely in reality I believe only ~8-10K maybe left assuming 25-26K SOFAD is already consumed, additionally they are also sitting on a huge stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 cases. One interesting thing to note is that on Trackitt EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals are still coming by but EB3 ROW approvals and even EB3 India are very less this may indicate that numbers on that side are exhausted. Bulk of the movement atleast till 01-JUN-2007 (6-7K SOFAD) should happen in the Aug bulletin itself. August bulletin will be very critical litmus test atleast with regards if they plan to have additional intake in FY2011 itself. Lets wait and watch. Today due to the long weekend there have been virtually no reports of approvals. But I hope they will start next week and they will have good indicators before the next bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Guys ...trackitt trend updated. Please check the trackitt based predictions thread in FACTS and DATA section.

Basically the trend has deteriorated slightly. Yet ...I feel confident that through Sep 2011 most 485 EB2IC cases through Jun 2007 will be assigned a visa. The best case will be that all EB2IC cases through Aug 2007 that are already filed will be assigned visa plus there could be some miniscule FD given to EB3.

[Spectator]

Teddy, that is an interesting observation about EB3.

I agree that EB3-I appears to have used or nearly used the allocation for the year. DOS, compared to last year, appeared to front load the approvals. I suspect any remaining are Consular returns. Even allowing for error in the Trackitt ratio, there can't be more than a few hundred visas left. I would not be surprised if EB3-I becomes Unavailable before the end of the FY.

EB3-ROW, on the other hand is a bit of a mystery. Like EB3-I, the approvals have been more front loaded this year (55% of all Trackitt EB3-ROW approvals were in August-September in FY2010). USCIS seem very slow in closing EB3-ROW cases out. There are still several thousand's worth pending in Trackitt that became current as early as the May VB.

Even by the most pessimistic estimates, EB3-ROW should receive at least 22k visas this year. To date, they only appear to have received around 15.7k. Either EB3-M&P are receiving unprecedented numbers of visas this year (difficult because P shares the same Cut Off Date as ROW and M can only get about 8k max in EB3 [which they did last year]), or there are a lot of EB3-ROW approvals still to come. Otherwise, EB3 will not reach the 28.6% allocation and ROW will lose visas again.

The other alternative is that the Trackitt % for EB3-ROW has dropped significantly. That could be the case, but my gut feeling from looking at Trackitt threads by ROW, is that is not the case.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, that is an interesting observation about EB3.

I agree that EB3-I appears to have used or nearly used the allocation for the year. DOS, compared to last year, appeared to front load the approvals. I suspect any remaining are Consular returns. Even allowing for error in the Trackitt ratio, there can't be more than a few hundred visas left. I would not be surprised if EB3-I becomes Unavailable before the end of the FY.

EB3-ROW, on the other hand is a bit of a mystery. Like EB3-I, the approvals have been more front loaded this year (55% of all Trackitt EB3-ROW approvals were in August-September in FY2010). USCIS seem very slow in closing EB3-ROW cases out. There are still several thousand's worth pending in Trackitt that became current as early as the May VB.

Even by the most pessimistic estimates, EB3-ROW should receive at least 22k visas this year. To date, they only appear to have received around 15.7k. Either EB3-M&P are receiving unprecedented numbers of visas this year (difficult because P shares the same Cut Off Date as ROW and M can only get about 8k max in EB3 [which they did last year]), or there are a lot of EB3-ROW approvals still to come. Otherwise, EB3 will not reach the 28.6% allocation and ROW will lose visas again.

The other alternative is that the Trackitt % for EB3-ROW has dropped significantly. That could be the case, but my gut feeling from looking at Trackitt threads by ROW, is that is not the case.

Spec I fully agree with you both Mexico and Philippines will grab huge amount of visas for EB3 this year even more because the EB2 and EB1 usages are down. So if their EB1 and EB2 usage is less they can grab as much as 7K each so EB3 ROW cap might be reduced to as low as 22K with India and China getting their fair share, agree it can’t get any more drastic. 245I demand is still coming by. The more important point as you say is that approvals have been front loaded this year. Even for EB2 this time the spillover started in May rather than July. We should all be cognizant to the fact 25-26K SOFAD has been burnt out. The maximum we could really see over this would be another 12K. I believe they really intend to have September more as a finishing month we should see most of the spillover in Aug with September being spillover for spillover generated in the last quarter. Now how this 12K would come by I believe they used up 50% of EB5 so it could really be 4K each from EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 we cannot ignore the stockpile of the EB1 and Eb2 ROW applications that are there. I agree with Q that in reality the numbers are available only to approve pre-adjudicated cases till June. The coming 2 bulletins will have a huge element of discretion by the agencies if they decide to take up extra demand. Taking fresh intake till Q1 2008 is almost imperative but it is entirely discretionary when that’s going to happen. Today has not been a good day with regards approvals I did not see even a single approval anywhere I hope it’s the long weekend. The next VB will depend on how confident USCIS is about clearing cases that are current so early next week is critical the VB might come out the week following the next week.

[Gclongwait]

Does the pre adjudication process mean that all I 485 up for visas will be approved? At least I haven't come across any denials in blogs etc. So if you are pre adjudicated and not denied as yet that means you are through or do they approve or deny only after your date is current.