EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Thanks Q,gcwait.

Q, when you mention 50% decline you are talking about approvals, not filings correct? If so, yes it aligns with my earlier observation about increase in wait times and a pessimistic scenario for next year (assuming most of the filings get approved). If you are talking about filings then it's good news but I didn't notice that.

tanu_75,
It's both, Please check i140 data link for receipts.

[ssvp22]

From what i have read, there are no plans for immigration related bills until after presidential election in end of 2012. Even after that, democrats(if they win) might pick up the cause, but there is no guarantee if any bill will ever get passed. In other words, if you are planning to move back to India 'cause your priority date is in 2010 or 2011, you should factor in 4 years of 0 career growth in US.

Is there any hope with this?
H.R.2161 - Immigration Driving Entrepreneurship in America Act of 2011
or is it like other bills that just die?

[pch053]

I think you summarized pretty well. There are several uncertainties for predicting 2009 time frame which will be take at least a few years for adjudication. To split up the situation into two parts:
i) When 2009 will be current so that one can file I485: this depends on how USCIS moves the dates forward to take in new applications or create a buffer of applications. Since there hasn't been any precedence of this before, it makes it even harder to guess how USCIS will act on this.
ii) When 2009 PD will be approved: this will depend a lot on spillovers for the coming years; people are predicting that there will be fewer spillovers in coming years (see some of the earlier posts in this thread) but again, nothing is clear yet. One can see the # of PERM applications submitted in the 'FACTS' section and that might give an idea on how many EB2-I applications might be prior to a 2009 date.

So, to sum up, I don't have any new conclusion. There are too many unknowns at this point of time to predict anything as far as 2009. As of now, I will stick to 4 - 5 years thumb rule from PD as the approx time line for getting GC approval.

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
It's both, Please check i140 data link for receipts.

I'm probably late to the party, but that's pretty cool data veni. Can you clarify on this though :

(FY 2009 EB1485 approvals = 40,979, translates to 17,075 EB1-i140)
(FY 2010 EB1485 approvals = 41,026, translates to 17,094 EB1-i140)


Are you saying the above is the quota for the year or are you saying these were actual approvals? If these are actual approvals, then why is there diff of 10k between the 17k (from 485) and the 27k that we get from the 140 calculation. Thanks.

[veni001]

I'm probably late to the party, but that's pretty cool data veni. Can you clarify on this though :

(FY 2009 EB1485 approvals = 40,979, translates to 17,075 EB1-i140)
(FY 2010 EB1485 approvals = 41,026, translates to 17,094 EB1-i140)


Are you saying the above is the quota for the year or are you saying these were actual approvals? If these are actual approvals, then why is there diff of 10k between the 17k (from 485) and the 27k that we get from the 140 calculation. Thanks.

tanu_75,
Those i140 numbers are estimated based on approved i485 from each year (2009&2010). Check the 140 to 485 link for ratio used.

As you can see from the data EB1 i140 receipts in 2009 are higher compared to 2010 but 485 approvals are almost the same in both years, which means more than half of FY2010 EB1-485approvals are actually from 2009 filers.

[nishant2200]

I came across this:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31333641.html

Most of the stuff in chinese, search for a post by rocketsfan which contains "My dream is to have a green card and then I can visit my parents in every
spring festival" and read that. Very touching.

Let me know if I should not post links to this or other websites like this. Apologize if I did wrong, you can delete my post or ask me to edit and remove

[qesehmk]

Nishant

No worries.... Thanks for posting.

I agree with this person. I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now. What he has written certainly resonates with a lot of us!

p.s. reproducing the content from "Rocketsfan" who is a contributor on our forum too. But I will not disclose

Written by Rocketsfan from Mittbbs.com

My dream is to have a green card and then I can visit my parents in every
spring festival. This is my 9th year in USA. I only spent one spring
festival with my parents in the past nine years. My major is sensitive and
they checked me every time. I have to take at least 1 month vacation every
time and it caused many troubles. I feel so frustrated about this.

In this spring festival, I watched some news that some Chinese migrant
workers used their whole year's saving to go back home to visit their family
in the country side. Some migrant workers couldn't afford a train ticket and they rided bikes from Guangdong to Hunan to see their family. I was so moved by this news. I am making more money than Chinese migrant workers, but I can't spend spring festival with my family.

I don't want to make more money using green card, but I really want to spend
every spring festival with my parents from 2012. Life is not unlimited and
we need to grasp every opportunity to spend more time with family.

I sincerely wish every Chinese folk here can get GC and have great family
reunions using GC. The love from family and friends is the greatest thing in the world.

I came across this:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31333641.html

Most of the stuff in chinese, search for a post by rocketsfan which contains "My dream is to have a green card and then I can visit my parents in every
spring festival" and read that. Very touching.

Let me know if I should not post links to this or other websites like this. Apologize if I did wrong, you can delete my post or ask me to edit and remove

[soggadu]

Nishant

No worries.... Thanks for posting.

I agree with this person. I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now. What he has written certainly resonates with a lot of us!

p.s. reproducing the content from "Rocketsfan" who is a contributor on our forum too. But I will not disclose

I totally agree with an emotionally heavy heart... Waiting to get my EAD/GC so that i can visit my folks and spend some time... recently my collegue asked me what i am going to do once i get GC whether i am going to buy a house or look for a better paid job... my answer was to go to india for 3 months irrespective if i will have a job when i get back or not... Money is not worth what i am missing but immigration status is as it has effect on my family in the long run... anyway... Lets hope for the best...

[nishant2200]

Thanks Q, Sogaddu.

My parents visitor visa rejected two times. Now they have given hope and I feel even afraid to ask them to try again. At this age, they have to travel two times, once to vfs office, and once to consulate. Using rickshaws, trains, buses, in unknown cities.

My biggest dream is that after getting GC, become Citizen asap in 5 years later, and then sponsor their GC so that they can come see their only son, their only child, his wife and grand-daughter, whom they will not see growing up, their home, at least once in their life. I know they are not going to stay here forever. They never had a car, at least once in life, they can travel in their son's, their own, car.

[makmohan]

I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now.

I too have missed Diwali and more importantly Ganesh Festival for last 9 years now! Really missing it to-date.

- makmohan

[qesehmk]

Amen! That my dream too. I hope I gather the courage to do so. I am a travel freak. Have shows almost all US to my kids who are in their single digits yet. I hope I can show them half of India in next 5 years (and that too by train!).

I totally agree wit an emotionally heavy heart... Waiting to get my EAD/GC so that i can visit my folks and spend some time... recently my collegue asked me what i am going to do once i get GC whether i am going to buy a house or look for a better paid job... my answer was to go to india for 3 months irrespective if i will have a job when i get back or not... Money is not worth what i am missing but immigration status is as it has effect on my family in the long run... anyway... Lets hope for the best...

Thats very touching Nishant. I hope your wish is fulfilled ASAP and hope your parents remain healthy enough to enjoy US travel. That's a drawback I have seen with my own parents and friends' parents. As they become old they simply enjoy your company and are quite reluctant to travel because of knee problems or other health issues.

Thanks Q, Sogaddu.

My parents visitor visa rejected two times. Now they have given hope and I feel even afraid to ask them to try again. At this age, they have to travel two times, once to vfs office, and once to consulate. Using rickshaws, trains, buses, in unknown cities.

My biggest dream is that after getting GC, become Citizen asap in 5 years later, and then sponsor their GC so that they can come see their only son, their only child, his wife and grand-daughter, whom they will not see growing up, their home, at least once in their life. I know they are not going to stay here forever. They never had a car, at least once in life, they can travel in their son's, their own, car.

Getting too much senti out here!! So long for now!

I too have missed Diwali and more importantly Ganesh Festival for last 9 years now! Really missing it to-date.

- makmohan

[veni001]

Folks,
Let's hope next Visa Bulliten will bring light to our colorful lives.

[victorian]

Sorry. But you need to spend some time reading the thread. Its impossible to answer all individual questions,

Hey, My PD is Mar 09, 2007. Any ideas when I will get current?

[suninphx]

Thanks Q, Sogaddu.

My parents visitor visa rejected two times. Now they have given hope and I feel even afraid to ask them to try again. At this age, they have to travel two times, once to vfs office, and once to consulate. Using rickshaws, trains, buses, in unknown cities.

My biggest dream is that after getting GC, become Citizen asap in 5 years later, and then sponsor their GC so that they can come see their only son, their only child, his wife and grand-daughter, whom they will not see growing up, their home, at least once in their life. I know they are not going to stay here forever. They never had a car, at least once in life, they can travel in their son's, their own, car.

Thats very touchy.
As for parent visa.... please keep trying and they will get visa surely one day. Many of my friends parents got visa in 3 even 4 attempts.

[veni001]

Hey, My PD is Mar 09, 2007. Any ideas when I will get current?

victorian,
Not for another 33 days!

[pch053]

Folks,
Let's hope next Visa Bulliten will bring light to our colorful lives.

Are we expecting the next VB on July 8th, i.e. Friday of next week? Maybe, we will have some input from Q's source 1 - 2 days prior to that.

[ssvp22]

Are we expecting the next VB on July 8th, i.e. Friday of next week? Maybe, we will have some input from Q's source 1 - 2 days prior to that.

Wow, didnt realize VB comes next Friday. Need to get 485 docs ready in case date gets current.

[gc_vbin]

Just read this on Ron Gotcher's site. This could be another reason for delay in I-140 approvals this year..

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ends-RFEs.html

[samudrala]

Hi,

My PD is 06/06/2007 EB2 INDIA. Any predictions, when I would be current?

[whereismygclost]

Since seniors have decided not to give individual predictions. Let me try here. For 6/06/2007 EB2 INDIA, based on my readings in this forum I would say with almost 95% certainty that you will be current in either next month's or the month later visa bulletin.
Good Luck!!

[samudrala]

Thank you whereismygclost, I wish your predictions comes true

[whereismygclost]

Hang in there my friend samudrala. Hope your long wait is going to get over soon!

[veni001]

Just read this on Ron Gotcher's site. This could be another reason for delay in I-140 approvals this year..

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ends-RFEs.html

gc_vbin,
Good post, no wonder why i140 and EB1/EB2ROW pending inventory doubled in the last year.

Few bullets to note from the above news letter...

"First, they now seem to be issuing RFEs on the "ability to pay" issue for every employer that has filed multiple I-140s in the past".
......
......
"Second, they are questioning the qualifications of any beneficiary who has a three year undergraduate degree. It doesn't matter that the employee may have a U.S. master's degree or even PhD, if he or she has a three year undergraduate degree, the USCIS is going to challenge the validity of all higher degrees for the same person".
.......
.......
"Third, the service centers have finally decided to try to apply the illegitimate "employer-employee" memo standards to I-140 petitions for consulting companies".
.......
.......

[pch053]

The second point surprises me. If the individual has a MS or Phd degree from a credible US university, then the university authorities must have found the credential of the individual to be equivalent to a Bachelors degree holder during the admission procedure; else, they wouldn't have admitted the individual in the first place. I don't see the point questioning the Bachelors degree at this point of time when the person has finished a Phd. I recently came across a thread in trackitt where a person with a Phd in some scientific discipline (I forgot the exact subject) and probably having a 3 year undergrad degree had his/her I140 denied.

[veni001]

The second point surprises me. If the individual has a MS or Phd degree from a credible US university, then the university authorities must have found the credential of the individual to be equivalent to a Bachelors degree holder during the admission procedure; else, they wouldn't have admitted the individual in the first place. I don't see the point questioning the Bachelors degree at this point of time when the person has finished a Phd. I recently came across a thread in trackitt where a person with a Phd in some scientific discipline (I forgot the exact subject) and probably having a 3 year undergrad degree had his/her I140 denied.

pch053,
Things are different form Federal to State, State to Local, within Federal Departments....etc. For example in certain cases even 4-yr degrees are required evaluation!
I am not sure the legality behind this new approach, but i think it is clear that USCIS is tightening all the screws.

But it is obvious now why we have seen very minimal porting demand compared to what we have been predicting here.