EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[kd2008]

Yes Q, EB3 is backlogged. so what? If only one category is truly backlogged in terms of multiple countries retrogressed it makes the advocacy push even harder. Moreover, EB3 folks have been traditionally very unenthusiastic about advocacy. It's sad but true. So the whole thing gets doomed. Do you see what I am saying?

[qesehmk]

You may be right. Frankly I only meant to say that EB2-C being current is not a big factor for EB2I movement which is driven by EB1, EB5, EB2ROW & EB3 (ironically!). Do not know much about advocacy. So I will take others lead in learning about those things and restrict myself to predictions.

Yes Q, EB3 is backlogged. so what? If only one category is truly backlogged in terms of multiple countries retrogressed it makes the advocacy push even harder. Moreover, EB3 folks have been traditionally very unenthusiastic about advocacy. It's sad but true. So the whole thing gets doomed. Do you see what I am saying?

[kd2008]

Yeah I agree with you. I will keep following you guys as you have been so reliable.

[bieber]

Q

based on the recent developments (last 5 pages of this thread), would you mind projecting rough SOFAD range for fy 2012, I know you want to see Oct inventory and date movement in next 2 bulletins but i'm just anxious

[qesehmk]

Not many developments really. We continue to see total SOFAD of about 31-37K+5.6K = 36-43K total SOFAD suffient to clear EB2 through Jun (low end)-Aug 2011(w spillover to EB3).

Will update the trackitt based projections and header of this thread at teh end of this month.

Q

based on the recent developments (last 5 pages of this thread), would you mind projecting rough SOFAD range for fy 2012, I know you want to see Oct inventory and date movement in next 2 bulletins but i'm just anxious

[Spectator]

Q, I have a quick question. I noticed South Korea got around 5000 EB2 annually in the past several years. Why didn't they get retrogressed? South Koreans never had to wait for a long time for GC. Most of them get EB2 GC in 1 or 2 years. They exceeded EB2 annual quota every year.

qblogfan,

See post #8 here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs for an explanation.

[Spectator]

IMO EB3 Mexico stealing numbers from EB3 ROW is not only unfair, it is wrong as per INA.

If visa office is allocating additional number to EB3 Mexico because of its less consumption in EB1/EB2 mexico, these numbers has to come from EB1/EB2 mexico quota ( affecting EB2 IC spillover fest). This direct transfer is blocked by AC21 laws. Each subcategory has a limit in itself ( 7%). The only thing visa office can do is categorize EB3-Mexico as ROW. Everything else is illegal.

gcq,

I totally agree with you.

Using real visa numbers, it shouldn't be possible for the reasons you have outlined.

CO seems to use virtual numbers, which means the under-use by M-P is given to both EB2-IC and EB3-MP at the expense of EB3-ROW.

I agree it is illegal under the INA.

Similarly, if SK are allowed to use unused FB visas, the FB allocation should be reduced accordingly and added to SK's EB allocation.

[qblogfan]

Thank you for your directions. It makes sense now.

qblogfan,

See post #8 here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs for an explanation.

[qblogfan]

I agree. CO is not very fair.

gcq,

I totally agree with you.

Using real visa numbers, it shouldn't be possible for the reasons you have outlined.

CO seems to use virtual numbers, which means the under-use by M-P is given to both EB2-IC and EB3-MP at the expense of EB3-ROW.

I agree it is illegal under the INA.

Similarly, if SK are allowed to use unused FB visas, the FB allocation should be reduced accordingly and added to SK's EB allocation.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani Thanks.

Bieber, I am sorry, I wasn't careful enough to read your question.

Simply based on what I have heard and read (and without doing any calculations) I would suggest following approach.

This year SOFAD = 40K approx - of which probably 20K is due to backlogged EB1 / EB2ROW ( I could be wildly off here. And that's why wanted to wait till Oct inventory is out).

Next year there are two drastically different scenarios depending on whether USCIS sticks to Kazarian memo's current interpretation OR they change their tune.

Scenario 1 - Interpretation is eased out and normalcy is restored to EB1.

In this case, I would imagine EB1 to resume their usual run rate of 40K per year. Plus they are going to have 20K backlog. So EB1 demand will be approx 60K full year. Which means we should not expect any SOFAD from EB5 or EB1.

That only leaves us with EB2ROW. Depending on whether EB2ROW will have any unprocessed applications at the end of this year and assuming EB2ROW will come in at teh same run rate in 2012 as 2011, we can expect probably 2-8K from EB2ROW. That means total SOFAD will be between 8-14K. It means the dates will move around Dec 2007 at the end of Sep 2012.

Scenarios 2 - Kazarian memo interpretation stays same in 2012
In this case EB1 will come in at 20K demand in 2012 + about 5-10K backlog from 2011. That means total SOFAD for EB2IC = 5-10K FD from EB1 + all 5-8K from EB5 + 2-8K from EB2ROW + 5.6K = 18K - 32K

In this case dates will move to about Q3 of 2008.

p.s. - I am really very hesitant to predict 2012.. but since you asked I have penned it down. Please understand these are really very rough estimates.

HI Q

Bieber is looking for FY 2012 SOFAD if I am understanding right , you have given 2011 calculations .

[bieber]

Q

thanks for doing that, I understand you want to see more information to draw the conclusions

Kanmani, thanks for pointing out that it's fy 2012

[tanu_75]

I was going through the Kazarian memo, but it does not refer to EB-1C, i.e MNC managers, right? (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...%20AD10-41.pdf) In EB-1 quota, it seems that Eb-1C has the highest percentage of applicants (from Trackitt).

If I look at Trackitt, EB1 trend appears steady for the past 2 years as far as demand, but wait times sure have gone up. So yes, unless denial percentage goes up (which it could but Trackitt doesn't show it now), I am inclined to agree that Eb1 spillover could be lesser from next year.

Kanmani Thanks.

Bieber, I am sorry, I wasn't careful enough to read your question.

Simply based on what I have heard and read (and without doing any calculations) I would suggest following approach.

This year SOFAD = 40K approx - of which probably 20K is due to backlogged EB1 / EB2ROW ( I could be wildly off here. And that's why wanted to wait till Oct inventory is out).

Next year there are two drastically different scenarios depending on whether USCIS sticks to Kazarian memo's current interpretation OR they change their tune.

Scenario 1 - Interpretation is eased out and normalcy is restored to EB1.

In this case, I would imagine EB1 to resume their usual run rate of 40K per year. Plus they are going to have 20K backlog. So EB1 demand will be approx 60K full year. Which means we should not expect any SOFAD from EB5 or EB1.

That only leaves us with EB2ROW. Depending on whether EB2ROW will have any unprocessed applications at the end of this year and assuming EB2ROW will come in at teh same run rate in 2012 as 2011, we can expect probably 2-8K from EB2ROW. That means total SOFAD will be between 8-14K. It means the dates will move around Dec 2007 at the end of Sep 2012.

Scenarios 2 - Kazarian memo interpretation stays same in 2012
In this case EB1 will come in at 20K demand in 2012 + about 5-10K backlog from 2011. That means total SOFAD for EB2IC = 5-10K FD from EB1 + all 5-8K from EB5 + 2-8K from EB2ROW + 5.6K = 18K - 32K

In this case dates will move to about Q3 of 2008.

p.s. - I am really very hesitant to predict 2012.. but since you asked I have penned it down. Please understand these are really very rough estimates.

[pch053]

Scenario 1 - Interpretation is eased out and normalcy is restored to EB1.

In this case, I would imagine EB1 to resume their usual run rate of 40K per year. Plus they are going to have 20K backlog. So EB1 demand will be approx 60K full year. Which means we should not expect any SOFAD from EB5 or EB1.

That only leaves us with EB2ROW. Depending on whether EB2ROW will have any unprocessed applications at the end of this year and assuming EB2ROW will come in at teh same run rate in 2012 as 2011, we can expect probably 2-8K from EB2ROW. That means total SOFAD will be between 8-14K. It means the dates will move around Dec 2007 at the end of Sep 2012.

Scenarios 2 - Kazarian memo interpretation stays same in 2012
In this case EB1 will come in at 20K demand in 2012 + about 5-10K backlog from 2011. That means total SOFAD for EB2IC = 5-10K FD from EB1 + all 5-8K from EB5 + 2-8K from EB2ROW + 5.6K = 18K - 32K

In this case dates will move to about Q3 of 2008.

p.s. - I am really very hesitant to predict 2012.. but since you asked I have penned it down. Please understand these are really very rough estimates.

If Scenario I happens, then EB1 might be retrogressed for countries using more than 2.8K per year like India, right? If we consider the total EB1 demand to be 60K (40K + 20K backlog) and the spillover available from EB5 to be around 5K - 8K we will still have an additional demand of 12K - 15K EB1 visas. Am I correct in my understanding here?

[qesehmk]

yes you are. Mind you this is truly the WORST case scenario.

If Scenario I happens, then EB1 might be retrogressed for countries using more than 2.8K per year like India, right? If we consider the total EB1 demand to be 60K (40K + 20K backlog) and the spillover available from EB5 to be around 5K - 8K we will still have an additional demand of 12K - 15K EB1 visas. Am I correct in my understanding here?

[veni001]

If Scenario I happens, then EB1 might be retrogressed for countries using more than 2.8K per year like India, right? If we consider the total EB1 demand to be 60K (40K + 20K backlog) and the spillover available from EB5 to be around 5K - 8K we will still have an additional demand of 12K - 15K EB1 visas. Am I correct in my understanding here?

pch053,
Only if the documentarily qualified EB1 demand is more than the available visas for that Quarter/FY!

IMHO, estimated 40k EB1 regular demand will not show-up in the first day/month of FY.

[gcwait2007]

I was going through the Kazarian memo, but it does not refer to EB-1C, i.e MNC managers, right? (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...%20AD10-41.pdf) In EB-1 quota, it seems that Eb-1C has the highest percentage of applicants (from Trackitt).

If I look at Trackitt, EB1 trend appears steady for the past 2 years as far as demand, but wait times sure have gone up. So yes, unless denial percentage goes up (which it could but Trackitt doesn't show it now), I am inclined to agree that Eb1 spillover could be lesser from next year.

Most International managers make it to EB1 quota by coming thru' L1A and L1B visas.

It has become almost near to impossible to get L1B visa approval these days. L1B is for specialized knowledge employees. Again in L1A, the organizational hierarchy and reporting structure are questioned. Why a company such as CTS needs 4000 International managers in USA while their total US based operations do not exceed 15K to 20K employees. There is suspicion going on for misuse of L1 by corporates.

All of us may be aware that Infosys is in news for misuse of B1 visas and as a result, DoS is seriously considering abolishing issuing B1 visas to corporate employees. Another point discussed was raising H1B to 100K+ and maximum validity period is 3 years, in the absence of B1 visa issued to corporate employees. Setting limit to L1 visas was also considered. Above topics were discussed in AILA meeting in May 2011 and many Immig attorneys circulated these points.

[qesehmk]

Yes. You are right.

However, trackitt continue to show 30% or so decline in EB1-C India approvals and almost 50% decline in overall EB1-C.

I was going through the Kazarian memo, but it does not refer to EB-1C, i.e MNC managers, right? (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...%20AD10-41.pdf) In EB-1 quota, it seems that Eb-1C has the highest percentage of applicants (from Trackitt).

If I look at Trackitt, EB1 trend appears steady for the past 2 years as far as demand, but wait times sure have gone up. So yes, unless denial percentage goes up (which it could but Trackitt doesn't show it now), I am inclined to agree that Eb1 spillover could be lesser from next year.

Most International managers make it to EB1 quota by coming thru' L1A and L1B visas.

It has become almost near to impossible to get L1B visa approval these days. L1B is for specialized knowledge employees. Again in L1A, the organizational hierarchy and reporting structure are questioned. Why a company such as CTS needs 4000 International managers in USA while their total US based operations do not exceed 15K to 20K employees. There is suspicion going on for misuse of L1 by corporates.

All of us may be aware that Infosys is in news for misuse of B1 visas and as a result, DoS is seriously considering abolishing issuing B1 visas to corporate employees. Another point discussed was raising H1B to 100K+ and maximum validity period is 3 years, in the absence of B1 visa issued to corporate employees. Setting limit to L1 visas was also considered. Above topics were discussed in AILA meeting in May 2011 and many Immig attorneys circulated these points.

Thanks for the info. This might explain why EB1-I shows decline when the business is still strong for them.

[samudrala]

Hi All,

I've been a silent spectator of this site for a while now. Thank you for all of your valueble analysis and Calculations. Escepcially, Q, Veni, Beiber, Spectator, pch053 for keeping the latest data together.

Well, I am checking my luck with my PD 06/06/2007 EB2 India in the comming 2 months?

Gurus - Any predictions?

Also, I am one of them who missed the July Fiasco in 2007? So, if my dates gets current sometime in next two months or any time, when can I expect my GC Approval?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[qesehmk]

Current guess - 6-9 months after you file 485.

Hi All,

I've been a silent spectator of this site for a while now. Thank you for all of your valueble analysis and Calculations. Escepcially, Q, Veni, Beiber, Spectator, pch053 for keeping the latest data together.

Well, I am checking my luck with my PD 06/06/2007 EB2 India in the comming 2 months?

Gurus - Any predictions?

Also, I am one of them who missed the July Fiasco in 2007? So, if my dates gets current sometime in next two months or any time, when can I expect my GC Approval?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[samudrala]

Thank you Q, Any predictions my date gets currents in Aug or Sept. VB?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[geterdone]

Nice blog- good to see people not fighting over trivial things.
got a question- Many of you might have come across another site where you can enter your chargeability, country and PD to determine the time to become current and get GC (i can post the link if you want, but i guess everyone knows which site i am talking about). When i entered my PD (Sept 2009) it shows 4 yrs to become current from now. i wanted to know everyone's opinion on this. Sorry if this has already been discussed before. i have not gone through all the 130+ pages.

[tanu_75]

Yes. You are right.

However, trackitt continue to show 30% or so decline in EB1-C India approvals and almost 50% decline in overall EB1-C.





Thanks for the info. This might explain why EB1-I shows decline when the business is still strong for them.

Thanks Q,gcwait.

Q, when you mention 50% decline you are talking about approvals, not filings correct? If so, yes it aligns with my earlier observation about increase in wait times and a pessimistic scenario for next year (assuming most of the filings get approved). If you are talking about filings then it's good news but I didn't notice that.

[qesehmk]

Sorry. But you need to spend some time reading the thread. Its impossible to answer all individual questions,

Thank you Q, Any predictions my date gets currents in Aug or Sept. VB?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[geterdone]

Is there any hope with this?
H.R.2161 - Immigration Driving Entrepreneurship in America Act of 2011
or is it like other bills that just die?

[grnwtg]

Nice blog- good to see people not fighting over trivial things.
got a question- Many of you might have come across another site where you can enter your chargeability, country and PD to determine the time to become current and get GC (i can post the link if you want, but i guess everyone knows which site i am talking about). When i entered my PD (Sept 2009) it shows 4 yrs to become current from now. i wanted to know everyone's opinion on this. Sorry if this has already been discussed before. i have not gone through all the 130+ pages.

As it is discussed in this thread, i thought of replying what i have read through various posts here. Thumb rule for GC is 4-5 yrs from Labor Date. Again there are several factors involved into this such as spill over numbers eb4,eb5,eb2 row, Family visa spill over and current strict rules for EB1
There might be 3 scenarios for your date
1) If Luck favors, dos/uscis might make dates current ( optimism level -high), you can get your EAD, and GC might take another 2-3 yrs.
2) You get to file 485 by next July/August bulletin and expect GC again another 2-3 yrs ( optimism level -Medium)
3) You get to file 485 by 2013 June/July/August bulletin and expect GC again another 1-2 yrs from then ( optimism level -Low)

I personally think, by end of next year you will definetly have your EAD.
If we do not get enough spill over next 2 years then the other website you are talking might become truth ( probably it might take 3 more years)

Anyone please correct me if i am wrong.