EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qblogfan]

what you said makes perfect sense.

keep our fingers crossed!

Yes we all are basing our assumptions on the calculations done by the Gurus here. We truly appreciate their efforts and to the most part thier calculations have proven true in the last couple of VBs. Again, we can only predict and be optimistic but can't be sure.

My take:

1. This would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 (I mentioned this few days back) and we should see dates move by another year, my reasoning behind this that DOS wouldn't want to waste any numbers this FY, so they would push USCIS to reveal their true potential in processing the cases this FY and lay a foundation for the next FY. The first two quarters of next year would be wait and watch because until then they wouldn't have spillover data.

2. Dates would move ~1 year ( hoping Mar/April 2008). Though not pinning on the mails that NVC has sent, my take on this that DOS would look at the earliest possible date in the future that can be picked and processed at the Conuslar Posts. We all know that if one who opted CP and has a PD of Mar/Apr 2008 gets current he/she has a fair chance of having their GC approved well in advance of someone who opted for AOS with a earlier PD. This ensures use of Visa Number for the DOS.

3. Dates would retrogess in Oct 2011 and fall back to Jun/Jul 2007 and remain there for the first two quarters of next FY.

4. More applications/More money to USCIS scenario is not a possbility. If the dates move they would be purely based on the numbers used/available or procedural ( which is internal to USCIS/DOS).

-Sandy

[svbmanian]

Hi,

Appreciate the effort put in folks(Q,Teddy,veni etc.) for predicting and analysis on the visa movement.

I have PD of May-15 2007, and i have not filed my I-485 (PWMB) . I see that there is a good probability i will be current in the next few months and can file my I-485.Any prediction when i will get I-1485 approved ?

[pch053]

I will assume your I485 will be approved sometime late 2011; I think it will take approx 6 months to approve PWMB cases.

[ssvp22]

From what i have seen, it takes 5-6 months or more only with RFEs. If all docs are good and there are no RFEs, you can get in 3 months.

I will assume your I485 will be approved sometime late 2011; I think it will take approx 6 months to approve PWMB cases.

[nishant2200]

From what i have seen, it takes 5-6 months or more only with RFEs. If all docs are good and there are no RFEs, you can get in 3 months.

I would agree with that. For a perfect case, 3 months and even less, I posted earlier about my co-worker from South Korea who got it in 2 months including 140-485 concurrent filing and approvals. This is from what I have seen going around in my company as well as other friend's companies. And in fact, for EB2 ROW I am saying.

[Osaka001]

I would agree with that. For a perfect case, 3 months and even less, I posted earlier about my co-worker from South Korea who got it in 2 months including 140-485 concurrent filing and approvals. This is from what I have seen going around in my company as well as other friend's companies. And in fact, for EB2 ROW I am saying.

My prediction,
In June bulletin EB2 IC got ~11K visas, expect ~22K visas for next 2 months, that would clear all the pending applications with PD upto 12/2007. They may advance date by 1 year to get new applications and pre adjucate them for next season starting May/June 2012. So we can expect date is moved to 12/2008 , otherwise Current.

[natvyas]

Yes we all are basing our assumptions on the calculations done by the Gurus here. We truly appreciate their efforts and to the most part thier calculations have proven true in the last couple of VBs. Again, we can only predict and be optimistic but can't be sure.

My take:

1. This would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 (I mentioned this few days back) and we should see dates move by another year, my reasoning behind this that DOS wouldn't want to waste any numbers this FY, so they would push USCIS to reveal their true potential in processing the cases this FY and lay a foundation for the next FY. The first two quarters of next year would be wait and watch because until then they wouldn't have spillover data.

2. Dates would move ~1 year ( hoping Mar/April 2008). Though not pinning on the mails that NVC has sent, my take on this that DOS would look at the earliest possible date in the future that can be picked and processed at the Conuslar Posts. We all know that if one who opted CP and has a PD of Mar/Apr 2008 gets current he/she has a fair chance of having their GC approved well in advance of someone who opted for AOS with a earlier PD. This ensures use of Visa Number for the DOS.

3. Dates would retrogess in Oct 2011 and fall back to Jun/Jul 2007 and remain there for the first two quarters of next FY.

4. More applications/More money to USCIS scenario is not a possbility. If the dates move they would be purely based on the numbers used/available or procedural ( which is internal to USCIS/DOS).

-Sandy

If building up a pipeline is what USCIS has in mind then I would expect them to move dates in to 2008 in Aug bulletin and hold it till Sept end and retrogress in Oct. That would give the applicants sufficient time to file their paperwork.

[nishant2200]

http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html

VOL. XVII, no. 25; Jun 2011, week 4
Posted : 24.Jun.2011

(putting the date etc of bulletin as above web link may point to newer bulletins in future)

See number 3, for

"The forward movement of the DOS visa bulletin has resulted in the approval of a significant number of I-485 applications filed by the Murthy Law Firm for our clients. Most of these I-485 applications were filed in the months of June, July, and August of 2007. The approvals are arriving, literally, on a daily basis - sometimes in batches. This is expected to increase in July 2011. "

Generally I do see Murthy bulletins regularly, but this one I must give credit for informing to 'Irs' user on IV.

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html

VOL. XVII, no. 25; Jun 2011, week 4
Posted : 24.Jun.2011

(putting the date etc of bulletin as above web link may point to newer bulletins in future)

See number 3, for

"The forward movement of the DOS visa bulletin has resulted in the approval of a significant number of I-485 applications filed by the Murthy Law Firm for our clients. Most of these I-485 applications were filed in the months of June, July, and August of 2007. The approvals are arriving, literally, on a daily basis - sometimes in batches. This is expected to increase in July 2011. "

Generally I do see Murthy bulletins regularly, but this one I must give credit for informing to 'Irs' user on IV.

Thanks for posting what this implies are that the movement is very real, those who are current will see approvals. If the early days in July see good approvals the Aug bulletin has a higher chance of showing big movement. I read that EB3-ROW folks are having to wait for months despite being current this suggests that their cap is nearing exhaustion while EB2- I numbers are in sufficient quantity for those who are current.

[beeku123]

october 2007 eb2 predictions pls?

[meso129]

This one is a great blog. Q, I pmed you how to embed/put the jpg to show up without logging in

[makmohan]

Gurus,

Is it possible to estimate the double filers and approximately how many people would there be? If one of the spouses gets the GC the other one gets it as a dependent. Does this reduction in Eb2 or even Eb3 compensate for porting?

makmohan

[qesehmk]

Meso

Thanks. I tried but its not working. Pls see first page.

Regardless WELCOME!

This one is a great blog. Q, I pmed you how to embed/put the jpg to show up without logging in

Gurus,

Is it possible to estimate the double filers and approximately how many people would there be? If one of the spouses gets the GC the other one gets it as a dependent. Does this reduction in Eb2 or even Eb3 compensate for porting?

makmohan

Mak, since I thought it would be miniscule, i never thought of it. Besides these kind of things make our estimates conservative and so my bias is always to exclude them. If you have an idea how to estimate .... would like to hear.

[Gclongwait]

Meso

Thanks. I tried but its not working. Pls see first page.

Regardless WELCOME!




Mak, since I thought it would be miniscule, i never thought of it. Besides these kind of things make our estimates conservative and so my bias is always to exclude them. If you have an idea how to estimate .... would like to hear.

I don't think there is anyway to figure that out. Most of our friend circle actually comes in the dbl filing where both spouses have perms and I140, but who knows what the percent is.

My guess would be
Pwmb +new dependents=dbl filings+non porting repeat filers + people who voluntarily or involuntarily quit the process.

[pch053]

If the above equation is true, then won't the contribution of PWMB in the PD movement predictions diminish quite a bit. I think currently it's estimated that there are about 5K - 6K PWMB cases up to Aug'07 and that number will reduce if there are similar order of 'double filings', people quitting the GC process, etc.

[nishant2200]

I do think that there are certainly somethings we have been a bit overestimating to be on conservative side, and the large movements are certainly indicative of that so far. CO surely knows something we don't, and so far, that what he knows has been on the good news side for us. I have no doubt in my mind, that if the NVC invoice notices for CP till Q1 2008 are really true, then we will get there in September bulletin. If those NVC notice news are not true, then I am not sure what the gameplan would be. (No one has actually put any actual invoice scan or pdf with demographic detail blanked out etc. just to prove, so it's all just based on some blog posts by few people, at least that's my impression).

I may sound biased because of my PD, but really honestly, it's common sense to have applications pre-adjudicated to not waste visas. It's sailing smooth for USCIS this year because of the pre-adjudicated apps, to whom they are simply stamping visa numbers each month.

If one were to ask me, that give me one answer with no ifs and buts, I would say Q1 2008 in September bulletin.

[pch053]

I do think it is most logical to move the PD to somewhere in 2008 for the Sep bulletin. This will ensure enough pre-adjudicated visas for spillover visas and no chance of wasting spillover visas. Plus, it will give USCIS enough time (Oct'11 - May'12) to pre-adjudicate the visas when the PDs won't be current. However, as mentioned earlier there has been no earlier precedence of this and other than the July-Aug'07 fiasco there hasn't been any situation where USCIS has created a buffer of I485 pending applications. So, whatever they do this time will be something new which also makes it a bit hard to predict. With all that being said, I do feel they will move the dates past July - Aug'07 (probably somewhere into 2008) with the NVC fees (I think it is true, else we wouldn't have heard it in different forums/threads) being one indicator for the same.

[qblogfan]

Last year they moved family based PDs two years in August/September, and retrogressed back in December.

If you take a look of the previous VBs, you will find the pattern of FB based movement last summer.

I think they will do the same to employment based.

I do think it is most logical to move the PD to somewhere in 2008 for the Sep bulletin. This will ensure enough pre-adjudicated visas for spillover visas and no chance of wasting spillover visas. Plus, it will give USCIS enough time (Oct'11 - May'12) to pre-adjudicate the visas when the PDs won't be current. However, as mentioned earlier there has been no earlier precedence of this and other than the July-Aug'07 fiasco there hasn't been any situation where USCIS has created a buffer of I485 pending applications. So, whatever they do this time will be something new which also makes it a bit hard to predict. With all that being said, I do feel they will move the dates past July - Aug'07 (probably somewhere into 2008) with the NVC fees (I think it is true, else we wouldn't have heard it in different forums/threads) being one indicator for the same.

[veni001]

Let's solely look at PERM data

PD2006: INDIA
Approved in 2006 = 14,068
Approved in 2007-10 = 11,635
Total = 25,703
PD2006: CHINA
Approved in 2006 = 3,943
Approved in 2007-10 = 3,111
Total = 7,054
PD2006 EBIC PERM Certifications~= 32.7k

We know that PD2006 for I&C was current during July 2007 & AUG-SEPT 2008, we do not know how many PD2006 485's got approved during this time!
Not including the approvals known demand for PD2006 - EB2IC was about 27k (from Dec 2009 EB Inventory)
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 13.0k
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 21.7k

Assume 3-5k PD2006 approved during 2007&2008, PWMB & other, then PD2006 EB2IC demand ~= EBIC PERM Labor Certifications.
If we assume all other factors, we are debating here, cancel each other then this approach should be valid for CY2007 (assuming EB2:EB3 remain same for CY2006 &CY2007).

Look at EBIC PERM data for CY 2007 = 29k

Known demand for EB2IC PD 2007(10-01-2010 demand data) = 15.5k
So we will see atleast an additional 13.5k EB2IC demand until Dec 2007

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your analysis.

It makes sense.

Based on PERM data, we can estimate there is 13.5k demand before 1/1/2008 and 35k demand before 7/1/2008.

If they move the PD to 7/1/2008, totally there will be 35k demand for next year's spillover. I think 7/1/2008 is an optimized choice.

Let's solely look at PERM data

PD2006: INDIA
Approved in 2006 = 14,068
Approved in 2007-10 = 11,635
Total = 25,703
PD2006: CHINA
Approved in 2006 = 3,943
Approved in 2007-10 = 3,111
Total = 7,054
PD2006 EBIC PERM Certifications~= 32.7k

We know that PD2006 for I&C was current during July 2007 & AUG-SEPT 2008, we do not know how many PD2006 485's got approved during this time!
Not including the approvals known demand for PD2006 - EB2IC was about 27k (from Dec 2009 EB Inventory)
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 13.0k
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 21.7k

Assume 3-5k PD2006 approved during 2007&2008, PWMB & other, then PD2006 EB2IC demand ~= EBIC PERM Labor Certifications.
If we assume all other factors, we are debating here, cancel each other then this approach should be valid for CY2007 (assuming EB2:EB3 remain same for CY2006 &CY2007).

Look at EBIC PERM data for CY 2007 = 29k

Known demand for EB2IC PD 2007(10-01-2010 demand data) = 15.5k
So we will see atleast an additional 13.5k EB2IC demand until Dec 2007

[pch053]

Last year they moved family based PDs two years in August/September, and retrogressed back in December.

If you take a look of the previous VBs, you will find the pattern of FB based movement last summer.

I think they will do the same to employment based.

Thanks for pointing me this out. One thing I see is that USCIS moved the dates both in Aug & Sep'10 and didn't retrogress until Jan'11. Is it possible to do a similar thing for employment based cases too? For example, they advance the dates a bit in Aug and more in Sep (and even Oct) and then retrogress the dates after a couple of months in Dec'11 or Jan'12. From what I have read, I understand this might violate the quarterly limits, etc but shouldn't this be applicable for Family based visas too.

The basic question I have is that is if they can advance (or at least, don't retrogress) the Family based visa dates for the 1st quarter, can the same thing be also done for employment based visas. As an example (this is just for illustration), lets say if they move the dates to June - July'07 and clear most of the pending applications by Sep, can they move forward the dates by 1 year in Oct bulletin (or Sep bulletin) and keep it like that for few months before retrogressing in the Dec or Jan bulletin? I guess one reason for retrogression from Oct onward is then the I485's can then be approved based on PDs but isn't this argument also valid for Family based visas?

[veni001]

Last year they moved family based PDs two years in August/September, and retrogressed back in December.

If you take a look of the previous VBs, you will find the pattern of FB based movement last summer.

I think they will do the same to employment based.

Thanks for pointing me this out. One thing I see is that USCIS moved the dates both in Aug & Sep'10 and didn't retrogress until Jan'11. Is it possible to do a similar thing for employment based cases too? For example, they advance the dates a bit in Aug and more in Sep (and even Oct) and then retrogress the dates after a couple of months in Dec'11 or Jan'12. From what I have read, I understand this might violate the quarterly limits, etc but shouldn't this be applicable for Family based visas too.

The basic question I have is that is if they can advance (or at least, don't retrogress) the Family based visa dates for the 1st quarter, can the same thing be also done for employment based visas. As an example (this is just for illustration), lets say if they move the dates to June - July'07 and clear most of the pending applications by Sep, can they move forward the dates by 1 year in Oct bulletin (or Sep bulletin) and keep it like that for few months before retrogressing in the Dec or Jan bulletin? I guess one reason for retrogression from Oct onward is then the I485's can then be approved based on PDs but isn't this argument also valid for Family based visas?

pch053,
Here is the explanation provided by DOS for rapid forward movement of FB cut-off dates

"There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."

Which may not be true for EB cases...

[Gclongwait]

Let's solely look at PERM data

PD2006: INDIA
Approved in 2006 = 14,068
Approved in 2007-10 = 11,635
Total = 25,703
PD2006: CHINA
Approved in 2006 = 3,943
Approved in 2007-10 = 3,111
Total = 7,054
PD2006 EBIC PERM Certifications~= 32.7k

We know that PD2006 for I&C was current during July 2007 & AUG-SEPT 2008, we do not know how many PD2006 485's got approved during this time!
Not including the approvals known demand for PD2006 - EB2IC was about 27k (from Dec 2009 EB Inventory)
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 13.0k
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 21.7k

Assume 3-5k PD2006 approved during 2007&2008, PWMB & other, then PD2006 EB2IC demand ~= EBIC PERM Labor Certifications.
If we assume all other factors, we are debating here, cancel each other then this approach should be valid for CY2007 (assuming EB2:EB3 remain same for CY2006 &CY2007).

Look at EBIC PERM data for CY 2007 = 29k

Known demand for EB2IC PD 2007(10-01-2010 demand data) = 15.5k
So we will see atleast an additional 13.5k EB2IC demand until Dec 2007

Veni,
If I understand you correctly then according to our calculations we would have expected =~ 65K I485 for 2006 but we had only about 32000. Adjusting for people who may have added a dependent after July 2007 or Aug 2008, say add another 5K, that would take us only to 40K. That would mean we are off by 20K+ for 2006, thats HUGE and if the same applies for 2007 that would make a big difference in the predictions...right???

[veni001]

Veni,
If I understand you correctly then according to our calculations we would have expected =~ 65K I485 for 2006 but we had only about 32000. Adjusting for people who may have added a dependent after July 2007 or Aug 2008, say add another 5K, that would take us only to 40K. That would mean we are off by 20K+ for 2006, thats HUGE and if the same applies for 2007 that would make a big difference in the predictions...right???

Gclongwait,
No,we never estimated 65k EB2IC485 demand for any one year!
Based on the PERM numbers we are(at least i am) using 65:35 split for EB2IC:EB3IC until CY 2007 and 70:30 for 2008 & 2009, 75:25 from CY2010 onward...
And i am using 20% factor for denial/rejection, dropout, double filing...etc at 140 stage. 140 to 485 ratio is 2.1 for EB2 (average 2.04 only)

So for CY 2006 EBIC PERM certifications = 32.7k

If we apply the above factors to PERM data, CY2006 EB2IC demand = 32.7K*0.65*0.8*2.1 = 35.7k (this number is very close to the actual)
If we apply the same for CY 2007, EB2IC demand = 29k*0.65*0.8*2.1= 31.7k (which i believe again going to be very close to actual)

My be you are reading CY2006&2007 together!

[suninphx]

Gclongwait,
No,we never estimated 65k EB2IC485 demand for any one year!
Based on the PERM numbers we are(at least i am) using 65:35 split for EB2IC:EB3IC until CY 2007 and 70:30 for 2008 & 2009, 75:25 from CY2010 onward...
And i am using 20% factor for denial/rejection, dropout, double filing...etc at 140 stage. 140 to 485 ratio is 2.1 for EB2 (average 2.04 only)

So for CY 2006 EBIC PERM certifications = 32.7k

If we apply the above factors to PERM data, CY2006 EB2IC demand = 32.7K*0.65*0.8*2.1 = 35.7k (this number is very close to the actual)
If we apply the same for CY 2007, EB2IC demand = 29k*0.65*0.8*2.1= 31.7k (which i believe again going to be very close to actual)

My be you are reading CY2006&2007 together!

I would expect this percentage to be higher for 2008. I personally know 4-5 people who have gone back to India and dont intend to come back even if their PD becomes current.