EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

bieber,
USCIS updated dash board with April data earlier this week.

April 2011- i140
Receipts -7,464
Completions - 8,073
Awaiting Cust. Action - 2,491
All Other Pending - 34,352

I am waiting on Q3 FY2012 PERM data( probably next month) to update FACTS AND DATA section.

Thanks veni

[Gclongwait]

Hi All,

With all the calculations that Q, Venni, Spector have provided, 1st Quarter of 2008 seems more realsitic by Sep 2011 VB. Somehow, I feel this would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 where dates advanced by 2+ years and then retrogessed.

I agree with this. Looking at the NVC receipts it looks like it may actually go to about mid 2008. I think July 1 2008 by August or September and then come back to around July 1 2007 by Nov or Dec.

On another note, why do you guys think that next year SOFAD will be less. My PD is 1st week of Feb 2008 and I was thinking that next year GC would be nearly assured. Do you think it will be so less as to not even cover 7-8 mnths including PWMB + porting?

Another question I had was that my wife should soon be porting her Sep 2007 date from EB3 to EB2. Assuming I am able to file my I485 in the next few months does it make any sense for her to go the AOS route or CP is better now.

[pg_at_q]

pg_at_q why don't you email the man and see what he replies

If I had the contact info for the "man", I would have

[qesehmk]

The reason being EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are artificially low this year. But the receipts for those 485 applications is the same compared to 2010. So in 2012 we expect EB1 EB2ROW to not only receive 2012 demand but also the backlogged 2011 demand. Thats why 2012 may not be a great year for EB2IC.

As per your situation it seems you will get GC based on your wife's EB2 in 2012. I know some lawyers say CP is better. My opinion is that in this case this wont matter.

I agree with this. Looking at the NVC receipts it looks like it may actually go to about mid 2008. I think July 1 2008 by August or September and then come back to around July 1 2007 by Nov or Dec.

On another note, why do you guys think that next year SOFAD will be less. My PD is 1st week of Feb 2008 and I was thinking that next year GC would be nearly assured. Do you think it will be so less as to not even cover 7-8 mnths including PWMB + porting?

Another question I had was that my wife should soon be porting her Sep 2007 date from EB3 to EB2. Assuming I am able to file my I485 in the next few months does it make any sense for her to go the AOS route or CP is better now.

[cbpds1]

Qesehmk is predicting something different these days just kidding

"As per your situation it seems you will get wife based on your wifes EB2 in 2012"

The reason being EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are artificially low this year. But the receipts for those 485 applications is the same compared to 2010. So in 2012 we expect EB1 EB2ROW to not only receive 2012 demand but also the backlogged 2011 demand. Thats why 2012 may not be a great year for EB2IC.

As per your situation it seems you will get wife based on your wifes EB2 in 2012. I know some lawyers say CP is better. My opinion is that in this case this wont matter.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi Gurus,

Can uou please let me know is there any chances of PD will move to for EB2 india June 2008.
My PD is under EB2 19th May 2008. When Can I expect my PD wil current.

Thanks,
Shreya

[qesehmk]

Oops! Corrected now.

Qesehmk is predicting something different these days just kidding

"As per your situation it seems you will get wife based on your wifes EB2 in 2012"

I am sorry friends .... please read the thread .... its impossible to address everybody in individual manner.

Hi Gurus,

Can uou please let me know is there any chances of PD will move to for EB2 india June 2008.
My PD is under EB2 19th May 2008. When Can I expect my PD wil current.

Thanks,
Shreya

[qblogfan]

I agree with this too. I think it's very likely they will move the PD like what you said here.

I agree with this. Looking at the NVC receipts it looks like it may actually go to about mid 2008. I think July 1 2008 by August or September and then come back to around July 1 2007 by Nov or Dec.

On another note, why do you guys think that next year SOFAD will be less. My PD is 1st week of Feb 2008 and I was thinking that next year GC would be nearly assured. Do you think it will be so less as to not even cover 7-8 mnths including PWMB + porting?

Another question I had was that my wife should soon be porting her Sep 2007 date from EB3 to EB2. Assuming I am able to file my I485 in the next few months does it make any sense for her to go the AOS route or CP is better now.

[pch053]

I feel that if they want to move the dates to 2008 for taking in new I485 applications, it will more likely happen in the Sep bulletin as the purpose will be primarily to fill up the queue. The movement in the Aug bulletin will be probably anywhere around May'07 - July'07 (as all the estimates say), i.e. the range of PDs they can surely approve using this year's SOFAD. The two big unknowns are: i) how much the PDs will move in the Aug bulletin such that they will be approved by Sep'11 and ii) how much the PDs will move in Sep'07 such that a big enough buffer of I485 applications will be created for consuming the spillovers in 2012.

[tanu_75]

The reason being EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are artificially low this year. But the receipts for those 485 applications is the same compared to 2010. So in 2012 we expect EB1 EB2ROW to not only receive 2012 demand but also the backlogged 2011 demand. Thats why 2012 may not be a great year for EB2IC.

As per your situation it seems you will get GC based on your wife's EB2 in 2012. I know some lawyers say CP is better. My opinion is that in this case this wont matter.

So have denials gone up or has pending gone up? If approvals are less and receipts are same, then at least one of those two must have gone up.

[Spectator]

So have denials gone up or has pending gone up? If approvals are less and receipts are same, then at least one of those two must have gone up.

tanu,

The pending numbers have gone up consistently since February 2010 from a low of 11k to 34k in April 2011.

They have risen from 24k at the beginning of the FY.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

It isn't possible to identify the number of denials.

Hope that helps.

[leo4ever]

@Spectator,
I am new here and having a look at dashboard for the first time. So parson me if its obvious.
I chose the link you sent and its shows pending form type 140, does it mean that those are all pending I-140 which or not approved? Or are they approved I140's pending to file I485?

tanu,

The pending numbers have gone up consistently since February 2010 from a low of 11k to 34k in April 2011.

They have risen from 24k at the beginning of the FY.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

It isn't possible to identify the number of denials.

Hope that helps.

[vishnu]

If I may answer on behalf of Spec - these are I-140's that are yet to be approved.... nothing to do with 485s.

[cantwaitlonger]

Great forum providing great (and timely) information - kudos to all gurus.
Here's my first post!

Even after the '07 visagate, the trend has been significant forward movement (13-15 months) during the last quarter followed by retrogression during the first month of the new FY. I can see most of the reasons that argue for a similar movement this time around (including buffering the pipeline).
I'm trying to understand the factors that would prevent a similar trend as we approach the end of this FY. Thoughts?

[nishant2200]

I wanted to share some firsthand information I know. My co-worker is from South Korea, hence in EB2 ROW, after his labor got approved, he applied concurrently for 140-485 both in around March end this year. And he got his green card, the actual card, in two months, in May end. He has a masters in engineering from US, 4 year degree from South Korea, and his EB2 position was for Computer and Information Systems Managers, Level II wage for Los Angeles area (around 108k). My company is a small privately owned company, with our own software products.

Also I know of another guy, who was in EB3 ROW, his date somewhere in 2005, he too got a green card this year without any hassle, as soon as date became current. He had applied in July 2007, so had already approved 140, 485. Not that it matters here, it's EB3 ROW, but he too has a masters degree from US, and is from a similar, somewhat larger company that is also publicly traded.

So I do think, that it's not that they are delibrately slowing down process for other chargabilities or categories, that they are just more stricter in adjudicating, and maybe asking for more evidence, or denying if sufficient evidence not provided. That is why we are seeing less approvals materializing.

[neospeed]

I wanted to share some firsthand information I know. My co-worker is from South Korea, hence in EB2 ROW, after his labor got approved, he applied concurrently for 140-485 both in around March end this year. And he got his green card, the actual card, in two months, in May end. He has a masters in engineering from US, 4 year degree from South Korea, and his EB2 position was for Computer and Information Systems Managers, Level II wage for Los Angeles area (around 108k). My company is a small privately owned company, with our own software products.

Also I know of another guy, who was in EB3 ROW, his date somewhere in 2005, he too got a green card this year without any hassle, as soon as date became current. He had applied in July 2007, so had already approved 140, 485. Not that it matters here, it's EB3 ROW, but he too has a masters degree from US, and is from a similar, somewhat larger company that is also publicly traded.

So I do think, that it's not that they are delibrately slowing down process for other chargabilities or categories, that they are just more stricter in adjudicating, and maybe asking for more evidence, or denying if sufficient evidence not provided. That is why we are seeing less approvals materializing.

Yep that sounds accurate from my experience also.

[Gclongwait]

I wanted to share some firsthand information I know. My co-worker is from South Korea, hence in EB2 ROW, after his labor got approved, he applied concurrently for 140-485 both in around March end this year. And he got his green card, the actual card, in two months, in May end. He has a masters in engineering from US, 4 year degree from South Korea, and his EB2 position was for Computer and Information Systems Managers, Level II wage for Los Angeles area (around 108k). My company is a small privately owned company, with our own software products.

Also I know of another guy, who was in EB3 ROW, his date somewhere in 2005, he too got a green card this year without any hassle, as soon as date became current. He had applied in July 2007, so had already approved 140, 485. Not that it matters here, it's EB3 ROW, but he too has a masters degree from US, and is from a similar, somewhat larger company that is also publicly traded.

So I do think, that it's not that they are delibrately slowing down process for other chargabilities or categories, that they are just more stricter in adjudicating, and maybe asking for more evidence, or denying if sufficient evidence not provided. That is why we are seeing less approvals materializing.

Even on trakkit there are many people with 2011 PD in EB2 ROW who are already approved even though the Processing times for I485 are still in 2010, which means that the processing times cannot be relied upon. I am not sure how the dashboard is calculated so I cant say.
But I disagree with the gurus who think that EB1 and EB2 ROW are being slowed down to give visas to EB2IC. That would not make sense since that would only make a bad situation worse and could end up backlogging countries that are not backlogged. Maybe they have become more stringent or there are more checks.

[pch053]

Great forum providing great (and timely) information - kudos to all gurus.
Here's my first post!

Even after the '07 visagate, the trend has been significant forward movement (13-15 months) during the last quarter followed by retrogression during the first month of the new FY. I can see most of the reasons that argue for a similar movement this time around (including buffering the pipeline).
I'm trying to understand the factors that would prevent a similar trend as we approach the end of this FY. Thoughts?

One line of thought for not moving the dates significantly past July - Aug'07 is that there will be sufficient number of PWMB cases up to July'07 (~5K) + EB3->EB2 porting cases (~4K) for USCIS to adjudicate during the 1st 2 quarters of 2012. In that case, USCIS might move the dates during April'12 (and onwards) and take in more cases & approve accordingly based on demand & PD. To me, the better option is to advance the dates sufficiently and then retrogress as it will ensure that there will be always enough cases in the queue and no spillover visas will be wasted. But, I just wanted to mention the other possibility and have no idea what USICS will do at the end.

[cbpds1]

well u are talking of 9k cases in total till Apr 2012, however USCIS cannot adjudicate remaining 20K cases in 2-3 months before the next spillover (they need to keep 20k-30k cases in pipeline) .

One line of thought for not moving the dates significantly past July - Aug'07 is that there will be sufficient number of PWMB cases up to July'07 (~5K) + EB3->EB2 porting cases (~4K) for USCIS to adjudicate during the 1st 2 quarters of 2012. In that case, USCIS might move the dates during April'12 (and onwards) and take in more cases & approve accordingly based on demand & PD. To me, the better option is to advance the dates sufficiently and then retrogress as it will ensure that there will be always enough cases in the queue and no spillover visas will be wasted. But, I just wanted to mention the other possibility and have no idea what USICS will do at the end.

[TeddyKoochu]

One line of thought for not moving the dates significantly past July - Aug'07 is that there will be sufficient number of PWMB cases up to July'07 (~5K) + EB3->EB2 porting cases (~4K) for USCIS to adjudicate during the 1st 2 quarters of 2012. In that case, USCIS might move the dates during April'12 (and onwards) and take in more cases & approve accordingly based on demand & PD. To me, the better option is to advance the dates sufficiently and then retrogress as it will ensure that there will be always enough cases in the queue and no spillover visas will be wasted. But, I just wanted to mention the other possibility and have no idea what USICS will do at the end.

well u are talking of 9k cases in total till Apr 2012, however USCIS cannot adjudicate remaining 20K cases in 2-3 months before the next spillover (they need to keep 20k-30k cases in pipeline) .

Friends you are right the dates should be pushed forward well in advance, now if we are going to really touch 01-AUG-2011 and all preadjudicated cases are to be approved the SOFAD has to be ~ 42-43K. However in the real world if it happens then probably for the next year thy might have the following a) 6K PWMB, b) 6K Porting c) 2-3K preadjudicated cases which will be ~ 15K. It is entirely prudent to take atleast 30K more cases in the system probably draw a line at 01-APR-2008, taking extra cases as you mention will not cause any harm. Now the real essential condition for anything to happen is that we should see another 6-8K movement in the Aug bulletin this would peg the dates between 01-JUN-2007 and 01-JUL-2007 this way an interesting stage will be setup for September. What is going to happen is entirely speculative there is no precedent for that.

[qesehmk]

Teddy hit the bulls eye when he said "There is no precedent". That's what makes this so unique this time around.

Friends you are right the dates should be pushed forward well in advance, now if we are going to really touch 01-AUG-2011 and all preadjudicated cases are to be approved the SOFAD has to be ~ 42-43K. However in the real world if it happens then probably for the next year thy might have the following a) 6K PWMB, b) 6K Porting c) 2-3K preadjudicated cases which will be ~ 15K. It is entirely prudent to take atleast 30K more cases in the system probably draw a line at 01-APR-2008, taking extra cases as you mention will not cause any harm. Now the real essential condition for anything to happen is that we should see another 6-8K movement in the Aug bulletin this would peg the dates between 01-JUN-2007 and 01-JUL-2007 this way an interesting stage will be setup for September. What is going to happen is entirely speculative there is no precedent for that.

[pch053]

Surely agree that this time is unique and we are keeping our fingers crossed! On a slightly unrelated question, USCIS advanced the PDs to Aug'06 during the spillover season in 2008. At that time, there was surely not enough spillover visas to approve all cases up to Aug'06. Was there any specific reason for advancing the dates so much? Or was it primarily to clear out the CP cases with PDs up to Aug'06?

[sha_kus]

I hope they do the Aug - Sep 2008 again if not July 2007....

Surely agree that this time is unique and we are keeping our fingers crossed! On a slightly unrelated question, USCIS advanced the PDs to Aug'06 during the spillover season in 2008. At that time, there was surely not enough spillover visas to approve all cases up to Aug'06. Was there any specific reason for advancing the dates so much? Or was it primarily to clear out the CP cases with PDs up to Aug'06?

[gcq]

As for pushing dates forward for EB2, most people on this thread being EB2 assume Eb application means EB2 applications. That is incorrect. Spillovers are not meant to be exclusively for EB2. If there are pending applications in EB2, they will be assigned to them. Otherwise CO would make EB2 current and let the spillover flow down to EB3. IMO that is what is likely to happen.

When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current. As for I-140s in pipeline, visa office has no guarantee that I-1485 filed based on this new I-140 has the potential of becoming "documentarily qualified".

[kd2008]

Surely agree that this time is unique and we are keeping our fingers crossed! On a slightly unrelated question, USCIS advanced the PDs to Aug'06 during the spillover season in 2008. At that time, there was surely not enough spillover visas to approve all cases up to Aug'06. Was there any specific reason for advancing the dates so much? Or was it primarily to clear out the CP cases with PDs up to Aug'06?

After July 2007 fiasco USCIS wasn't processing cases methodically in order of PD. Additionally, Many cases were stuck in FBI checks. So DoS moved the dates to get as many approvable/documentarily qualified cases as possible to use up the available visa numbers.

Remember USCIS does not move the dates. Ever! Its DoS.