EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Guys ... none of us are opposed to quoting other sources and website. But please don't go around quoting simply to say this is what the other guy is saying. You tell us what YOU think. We on this forum are interested in learning what YOU think .... not what some other people feel.

More analysis ..... less opinion.
Your thoughts ...... not somebody else's gut feel or wish list.

Lets follow these two guidelines. And I say guidelines. I don't want to draw a line because I generally believe in everybody's ability to make the right choice. On this website we do not believe in censorship. So we will not remove other sources or any post unless it is abusive. But before posting anything that conflicts with above two guidelines ... just think whether it will really help others. That's the request I make to you all.

[nayekal]

I second the same thought.The website that has been mentioned never got the predictions part right.

I would not care much about the predictions being done for the future as well.

That website predicted that EB2 I will move to Oct 2006 in April VB and got a big shock, when the actual movement is until July 2006. Until July VB, they gave the most pessimistic predictions, which are proved wrong.

Surprisingly, this time they gave the most optimistic prediction expecting the dates to move until 1st quarter of 2008 before retrogressing to June / July 2007 in Oct VB.
Personally, I don't see any thing wrong with that website and I learnt a lot from that site just like here.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Our source is greened. He just received the card production notice. He is very thankful to this forum and to all of you. He will continue to help us in future. So dont be alarmed about anything.

One of the many interesting facts about him is he never had any lawyer EVER. Not that I would recommend that to anybody.. but its interesting that people do that. We wish him the very best and thank for his continued support!

[pch053]

Best of luck to your source for all his future endeavors. We are all immensely thankful to him for providing us useful leads on PD movements. On the lawyer issue, I have a couple of friends who successfully got theirs GCs in EB1A category without going through a lawyer. But I am sure those are exceptions and for employment based GCs, in most cases, one probably has to go with the employer's lawyer.

BTW, do we have any leads for PD movement for the month of Aug yet? I guess, it's a bit too premature to ask as for July's PD movement we got the input sometime around 1st week of June.

[ifaith]

pg_at_q why don't you email the man and see what he replies

Hey Guys,
May be a stupid question here so please pardon in advance. I was curious what does CO above stand for? Is it the visa office in DOS that determines the bulletin? If so, how come the chinese guy is able to get replies from them directly?

I guess what I am trying to get to is, if it's so easy to get replies from the actual "man" himself, then why do we all waste so much time predicting, when we can directly approach the "man" and ask him what's next?

[qesehmk]

PCH, we should have leads around 7-8th July.

BTW, do we have any leads for PD movement for the month of Aug yet? I guess, it's a bit too premature to ask as for July's PD movement we got the input sometime around 1st week of June.

[bieber]

Q

congrats to your friend and so nice of him to agree for continuing help

[kingjeremy]

Great job all of you guys. This is the most sane and respectful internet forum I have ever seen.

Being a complete n00b, I was wondering if there's a tutorial on how you guys think about the visa movements / predictions and calculations. If not, if someone can break it down in parts / simple english, that will be helpful.

I understand the facts that each country has an annual quota and the spillover concepts. However, what I struggle with is the denominator. Understand there is data available about known 485 demand, backlogs, etc. But not sure how to comprehend it.

For instance, my PD is Nov 2009. How would I know how many applicants would there be in the EB2-I category? Some people have already filed (those who have their PDs current, including the lucky ones from the 2007 fiasco). How do we get that data? Also, how do you estimate what the potential demand is for the people who still have not been able to file 485 (i.e. unknown demand)? I guess, the sum of those two should help us understand the total demand......rest everything is estimation of spill overs and an estimate of how many cases are declined or how many cancel their applications.

Am I thinking about it the right way?

Any help would be appreciated...would then be able to comprehend some of these discussions better.

Cheers.

[pch053]

Some pointers for you to get started. To estimate the future demand up to a particular PD, we have to break it into 2 parts: i) people who have already submitted their I485 applications and ii) people who are waiting to submit their I485 application.

One can get a relatively accurate information about (i) from the I485 pending inventory at USCIS website. The latest release of I485 pending inventory was made during beginning of June and one can see the numbers at:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

For the people who are waiting to file (ii), one can only make a rough estimate. The estimate is based on the number of PERM applications submitted/approved, #of of I140 applications submitted. The FACTS & DATA section of this forum (link below) has lots of details regarding the same and one will need to spend some time to digest all the information.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...FACTS-AND-DATA

[SChowdary]

Hi Veni,

Probably this is a very stupid and a basic question but i was looking at the demand data that you put together from uscis/dol and see that the demand for India for 2008 and 2010 reduced over the months. 2008 was never current so how come the demand reduces.

Sorry if you have ans this questions too many times..

Thanks
SC

[michaelclarke]

Wanted to say Thanks to all you guys for doing a fantastic job. Please keep it up.

Based on your expert knowledge what is the chance of May 2007 PD becoming Current in the next VB?

[qesehmk]

Friends just a brief trackitt update. Based on the trackitt trend till today, we continue to predict 37-47K total SOFAD. At the lower end this will sufficient to clear the backlog through May 2007. At higher end it will clear all existing backlog and provide some spillover to EB3. The reality will lie somewhere in between of course.

Will update our trackitt predictions in Data and Facts section at the end of this month.

Next month expect min 2-3 months movement.

[veni001]

Hi Veni,

Probably this is a very stupid and a basic question but i was looking at the demand data that you put together from uscis/dol and see that the demand for India for 2008 and 2010 reduced over the months. 2008 was never current so how come the demand reduces.

Sorry if you have ans this questions too many times..

Thanks
SC

SChowdary,
The demand data for EB2IC for 2008 and beyond is basically, documentarily qualified EB2IC filers until July2007 + CP demand from NVC
DOS/USCIS don't have AOS demand for EB2IC post July 2007 since both countries PD did never crossed July 2007.

[veni001]

Wanted to say Thanks to all you guys for doing a fantastic job. Please keep it up.

Based on your expert knowledge what is the chance of May 2007 PD becoming Current in the next VB?

michaelclarke
My guess would be 95% chance.

[michaelclarke]

Thanks Q. I had one quick question. On the US DOS Website link for Demand Data which they have updated on 5/10/2011 what does that figure represent. According to their data they have 14,100 until Jan 1 2007 and they have 29,425 until Jan 1 2008. What does this mean exactly.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[qesehmk]

That is DoS demand - which means they are all the 485 applications that have been approved by USCIS (or overseas consulates) and are waiting for a visa number from DoS.

The overall demand is of course includes 485 applications that are not yet approved by USCIS or the overseas consulates as well.

Thanks Q. I had one quick question. On the US DOS Website link for Demand Data which they have updated on 5/10/2011 what does that figure represent. According to their data they have 14,100 until Jan 1 2007 and they have 29,425 until Jan 1 2008. What does this mean exactly.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[srivi2007]

Hi All,

Any guess / estimate when Jun 20th 2007 will become current .

Thanks

[bieber]

Veni

is 140 data for apr and may available? or they update quarterly? I see the data till mar in facts & Data section

[bieber]

Thanks Q. I had one quick question. On the US DOS Website link for Demand Data which they have updated on 5/10/2011 what does that figure represent. According to their data they have 14,100 until Jan 1 2007 and they have 29,425 until Jan 1 2008. What does this mean exactly.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

number of people with priority date between Jan1, 2007 and Jan1, 2008 is eqaul to 29425-14100 (15325)

[MeraNoAayega]

Hi All,

Any guess / estimate when Jun 20th 2007 will become current .

Thanks

PD of June 20th 2007 should be current in August 2011 visa bulletin.

[sha_kus]

Q , i have a question.. will there be any difference in movement using the inventory data and the Demand Data?

Friends just a brief trackitt update. Based on the trackitt trend till today, we continue to predict 37-47K total SOFAD. At the lower end this will sufficient to clear the backlog through May 2007. At higher end it will clear all existing backlog and provide some spillover to EB3. The reality will lie somewhere in between of course.

Will update our trackitt predictions in Data and Facts section at the end of this month.

Next month expect min 2-3 months movement.

[qesehmk]

Yes of course.

Movement based on DoS demand data is much more volatile because that demand could fall off the cliff for short durations and then restore in next few months. That is the reason DoS has been asking USCIS to provide visibility to USCIS demand/receipts and processing queue.

Since USCIS has started publishing inventory I am sure DoS has started using that information in addition to their own Demand data. So the movements are much more controlled now. As far as this spillover season goes, DoS has excellent visibility to demand and so they are moving dates according to supply. The million dollar question is will they hit the edge of the cliff (as in Jul-Aug 2007) and what happens then!

Q , i have a question.. will there be any difference in movement using the inventory data and the Demand Data?

[TeluguBidda]

Yes of course.

Movement based on DoS demand data is much more volatile because that demand could fall off the cliff for short durations and then restore in next few months. That is the reason DoS has been asking USCIS to provide visibility to USCIS demand/receipts and processing queue.

Since USCIS has started publishing inventory I am sure DoS has started using that information in addition to their own Demand data. So the movements are much more controlled now. As far as this spillover season goes, DoS has excellent visibility to demand and so they are moving dates according to supply. The million dollar question is will they hit the edge of the cliff (as in Jul-Aug 2007) and what happens then!

My guess: - on an average, they most likely be having 2500 applications, starting August 2007. This was the aggregate # of applicants, considering all chargeability areas, starting 2005. Upward and downward factors should offset each other and 2500 is a reasonably good # to expect.

Of course, I was referring to pure EB-2 applications. Regarding EB-3 conversions, god knows. May be, 500 a month?

[veni001]

Veni

is 140 data for apr and may available? or they update quarterly? I see the data till mar in facts & Data section

bieber,
USCIS updated dash board with April data earlier this week.

April 2011- i140
Receipts -7,464
Completions - 8,073
Awaiting Cust. Action - 2,491
All Other Pending - 34,352

I am waiting on Q3 FY2012 PERM data( probably next month) to update FACTS AND DATA section.

[sandeep11]

My guess: - on an average, they most likely be having 2500 applications, starting August 2007. This was the aggregate # of applicants, considering all chargeability areas, starting 2005. Upward and downward factors should offset each other and 2500 is a reasonably good # to expect.

Of course, I was referring to pure EB-2 applications. Regarding EB-3 conversions, god knows. May be, 500 a month?

Hi All,

With all the calculations that Q, Venni, Spector have provided, 1st Quarter of 2008 seems more realsitic by Sep 2011 VB. Somehow, I feel this would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 where dates advanced by 2+ years and then retrogessed.