EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

' I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. '

Q,

If the person who received the NVC letter with the priority date of June 08 is to be believed someone in DOS may be thinking like you...to move the dates by 1 year. July 07 to June 08.....I am not a number cruncher but just your statement and the NVC letters seemed a coincidence....

[Stemcell]

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

So maybe DOS and USCIS have become very efficient (monthly demand data is evidence of that) we may see a situation where they do not want to waste any spillover. In the past there has been visa wastage is my understanding.All this makes me very nervous with a PD of October 2007. Till late i was a living a learned helplessness life and now i see hope....which sometimes causes anxiety.
Thanks again guys.

[qblogfan]

comfort. I hope you will get your green card soon!

best wishes to you.

So maybe DOS and USCIS have become very efficient (monthly demand data is evidence of that) we may see a situation where they do not want to waste any spillover. In the past there has been visa wastage is my understanding.All this makes me very nervous with a PD of October 2007. Till late i was a living a learned helplessness life and now i see hope....which sometimes causes anxiety.
Thanks again guys.

[leo07]

DOS & CIS would also remain how the July 2007 applications brought the system to a screeching halt for months.

Agreeing that they would move the dates far enough, IMO, they would do it in phases. Validating the lines at each point.

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

[qesehmk]

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

DOS & CIS would also remain how the July 2007 applications brought the system to a screeching halt for months.

Agreeing that they would move the dates far enough, IMO, they would do it in phases. Validating the lines at each point.

[leo07]

If they look back last 2-3 years, conservatively they will need a inventory of 6-9 months to traverse smoothly in 2012. Like without having to waste visas or go through a mad rush of allocating visas at random.

Here is where I think, DOS/CIS, with their past experience, will responsibly move the dates in phases of 3-4 months at a time to cover the inventory, without taxing the CIS pipelines.

Again, this is all hypothetical and my own view, if it helps any, CIS had traditionally/historically proven me wrong.

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

[donvar]

Here is where I think, DOS/CIS, with their past experience, will responsibly move the dates in phases of 3-4 months at a time to cover the inventory, without taxing the CIS pipelines.

They will move dates very conservatively.
I agree with your 3-4 month at a time estimate and I firmly believe that dates will not reach early 2008 until Nov-Dec 2011 . They will get so much PWMB demand that they will have a buffer so they will proceed with caution.

[Stemcell]

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

I wonder if feedback from advocacy groups have an impact on DOS setting the future dates during the next couple of visa bulletins.What i mean if the DOS does not have a plan as to what to do next.... whether to make dates current or to slowly move the dates, they can feel the pulse of the immigration community and do so accordingly. I may be way out of line here but again just a thought......

[self.coach]

My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic) and let me know a scenario that is more probable in this case.

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

[pg_at_q]

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

Hey Guys,
May be a stupid question here so please pardon in advance. I was curious what does CO above stand for? Is it the visa office in DOS that determines the bulletin? If so, how come the chinese guy is able to get replies from them directly?

I guess what I am trying to get to is, if it's so easy to get replies from the actual "man" himself, then why do we all waste so much time predicting, when we can directly approach the "man" and ask him what's next?

[cbpds1]

I think you have 15% chance of it happening.

My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic) and let me know a scenario that is more probable in this case.

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

[veni001]

Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."

I wonder if feedback from advocacy groups have an impact on DOS setting the future dates during the next couple of visa bulletins.What i mean if the DOS does not have a plan as to what to do next.... whether to make dates current or to slowly move the dates, they can feel the pulse of the immigration community and do so accordingly. I may be way out of line here but again just a thought......

Since DOS & USCIS are coordinating on regular basis in setting monthly VB cutoff dates, i am sure they should have a plan for the next two VB by now!

[self.coach]

Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[leo07]

IMO, July-Sept 2012 is 70-80% chances for you. It's not pessimistic or nor too optimistic to aim for Sept 2012.

Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[gcseeker]

self.coach the general rule of thumb is 4.5X the PD. So the best probable estimate is Q2 2013.

The most optimistic estimate is IF Uscis moves the dates into early 2008 and then as you might have read in the previous posts retrogression will follow it back to July 2007 .They might open the pipeline to cover 2008 in 2012 and you will have an chance in 2013.

Untill and unless they make it current which might not happen 99% due to the past fiasco.

Sorry to rain on the parade but just wanted to give you an realistic answer.

Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[self.coach]

Thanks. This is the best and most helpful forum I have found..

IMO, July-Sept 2012 is 70-80% chances for you. It's not pessimistic or nor too optimistic to aim for Sept 2012.

[self.coach]

Okay. Thanks.

self.coach the general rule of thumb is 4.5X the PD. So the best probable estimate is Q2 2013.

The most optimistic estimate is IF Uscis moves the dates into early 2008 and then as you might have read in the previous posts retrogression will follow it back to July 2007 .They might open the pipeline to cover 2008 in 2012 and you will have an chance in 2013.

Untill and unless they make it current which might not happen 99% due to the past fiasco.

Sorry to rain on the parade but just wanted to give you an realistic answer.

[cbpds1]

As the gurus mentioned there are lots of numbers post Aug 2007 till 2008.

I just realized ur PD is Aug 2009, u will not make it even if they extend by 2 years to July 2009, hence u have a chance only if they make it C,
there fore the probability is really just 10%.....we need to be realistic, thats what I have learnt over the past 4 years while waiting to file for EAD.

just my 2 cents

Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[self.coach]

What do you gurus think about this suggestion - can we have an excel or plain text attachment that we update after discussing every month's VBs, with a list of PDs by year (maybe first half Jan-June and second half July-Dec) and probable times for being able to apply EAD?

For example:

Priortiy Date Probable EAD
01-06/2007
07-12/2007
01-06/2008
07-12/2008

That's give us all better insight on a monthly basis.

As the gurus mentioned there are lots of numbers post Aug 2007 till 2008.

I just realized ur PD is Aug 2009, u will not make it even if they extend by 2 years to July 2009, hence u have a chance only if they make it C,
there fore the probability is really just 10%.....we need to be realistic, thats what I have learnt over the past 4 years while waiting to file for EAD.

just my 2 cents

[pch053]

I think trackitt stats is a decent indicator for tracking progress of I485 approvals and we are already seeing ~200 approvals (in Spec's separate thread) for the month of June as compared to 161 approvals in May. One of my friend and a cousin had their PDs around Aug'06 and Sep'06 and both of them have got their approvals in the last week. So, my feeling is that USCIS is moving along quite well with the approvals too. Any thoughts from others?

[veni001]

I think trackitt stats is a decent indicator for tracking progress of I485 approvals and we are already seeing ~200 approvals (in Spec's separate thread) for the month of June as compared to 161 approvals in May. One of my friend and a cousin had their PDs around Aug'06 and Sep'06 and both of them have got their approvals in the last week. So, my feeling is that USCIS is moving along quite well with the approvals too. Any thoughts from others?

pch053,
Based on the number of cases on trackitt Vs approvals(for May & June,PD's are current), i think they are on track for June. Looks like the same approval trend(more approvals in first half of the month Vs second half) as well.

[neospeed]

After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

source:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co....html#comments

[leo07]

neospeed,

Thanks for the update. This information aligns with our thoughts.(at least mine )

However, we must understand that DOS looks at raw numbers in it's (CIS) hand to move the dates forward. Given the processing rates for 140's and 485's, that number would be bloated in advantage to forward date movements. Luckily, in the current climate, everyone is in favor of the scenario.

Post October 2011 inventory will give a clear picture for dates movement over the next year, for us and DOS alike.

Best!

After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

source:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co....html#comments

[qblogfan]

That website never provided any reliable information in the past. Their previous predictions were all wrong.

I would not trust the information they provided.

After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

source:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co....html#comments

[gcseeker]

I second the same thought.The website that has been mentioned never got the predictions part right.

I would not care much about the predictions being done for the future as well.

That website never provided any reliable information in the past. Their previous predictions were all wrong.

I would not trust the information they provided.