EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[makmohan]

The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months.

I don't buy this NVC story. I have said the USCIS process is random not that it is foolish. Good mistakes like 2007 fiasco only happen once in lifetime. In last few years, I have seen so many rumors spreading each time that I no longer believe them.

- makmohan

[nishant2200]

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

[leo07]

On a lighter note...and with all due respect.

This is a completely different movie scene LOL

10 years ago, my Professor threatened me saying that he will give me E before gave me B, saying that I copied the info, but didn't give reference of the source.

[pch053]

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

I don't know the rule and so am I am just clarifying. Based on what you mention, if one pays the NVC fee anytime during the 1 year duration from receipt date of the notice, then the fee paid will remain valid for future I485 processing (irrespective of whether the I485 is processed within 12 months or not from the date of payment). To me this makes more sense, as even if someone's PD becomes current in year's time, it is not always guaranteed that the I485 will be adjudicated within that time window.

Thanks!

[veni001]

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

nishant2200,
I think you are correct, i found this old NVC DS-230 package on the web. Please check language (bold) on page 2.

[nishant2200]

nishant2200,
I think you are correct, i found this old NVC DS-230 package on the web. Please check language (bold) on page 2.

Excellent, I too was feverishly searching for proof, and I found something similar:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/28967711/Visa-Processing-Fee

this guy also has similar language on the second page. Nice to get confirmation of doubts. thank you.

[hoping4thebest]

Could anyone tell me how much was the total spillover received by EB2-IC during FY2010and FY2009. This is just for my curiosity. I couldnt find this in any of the recent posts and therefore sorry if this is a redundant question.

Adding another question which is actually why I asked above. So with a PD of Feb 2009, I see from the PERM data analysis that there are around 50k (if I take aggresive "factors" into my calc) to 63K (conservative "factors" in calc) ahead of me post July/Aug 2007. This year most of you Gurus estimate VB will go to early/mid 2008 by end of FY2011 and then retrogress. But what is likely to happen after that. I know it is difficult to predict too far out but was just curious on your insights.
Will we have to wait till Q3/Q4 of FY 2012 to see any benefits of SOFAD and even then will it be enough for dates to enter 2009? In other words will people like me with early 2009 PDs be in the situation same time next year as people with early-mid 2008 dates are today. Or will we not be that lucky and have to wait for FY2013 .

[veni001]

Could anyone tell me how much was the total spillover received by EB2-IC during FY2010and FY2009. This is just for my curiosity. I couldnt find this in any of the recent posts and therefore sorry if this is a redundant question.

hoping4thebest,

FY2009 - 7,545
FY2010 - 20,449

[leo07]

It could have been anywhere b/n 24k to 27k of SOFAD in the previous CIS-Year.

[qesehmk]

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

hoping4thebest,

FY2009 - 7,545
FY2010 - 20,449

[veni001]

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

Q,
Agree,pending inventories at the beginning of FY, processing times, new demand, economy....lot of variables.
All most all the time it is better not think beyond current FY!

[pch053]

I am curious to hear opinion from others regarding EB1 usage in future. This year, EB1 usage has decreased dramatically due to the Kazaran memo. I will assume that this reduction can be attributed to more stringent criteria for all EB1A, EB1B and EB1C categories. Do we expect the EB1 usage to be on the lower side (at least as compared to the previous years) in the coming years too? If the above memo is followed then my feeling is that EB1 usage will be similar to the current year. However, this may lead to more EB2-ROW cases and that will impact the spillover visas to EB2-I/C at the end; so, effectively decrease in EB1 usage and increase in EB2-ROW visas might just cancel out each other.

The other issue (as pointed out in earlier posts) that will be relevant is that we already have ~19K EB1 + EB2-ROW cases from the June inventory. There will surely be another 5K+ EB1 + EB2-ROW cases that will be submitted during the last quarter (July - Sep). So, overall we will have 25K+ (maybe 25K - 30K) pending EB1 + EB2-ROW applications already in the pipeline for next year by Oct'11. To me, this might indicate fewer spillovers for the next year, irrespective of EB1 and EB2-ROW usage in 2012.

[veni001]

I am curious to hear opinion from others regarding EB1 usage in future. This year, EB1 usage has decreased dramatically due to the Kazaran memo. I will assume that this reduction can be attributed to more stringent criteria for all EB1A, EB1B and EB1C categories. Do we expect the EB1 usage to be on the lower side (at least as compared to the previous years) in the coming years too? If the above memo is followed then my feeling is that EB1 usage will be similar to the current year. However, this may lead to more EB2-ROW cases and that will impact the spillover visas to EB2-I/C at the end; so, effectively decrease in EB1 usage and increase in EB2-ROW visas might just cancel out each other.

The other issue (as pointed out in earlier posts) that will be relevant is that we already have ~19K EB1 + EB2-ROW cases from the June inventory. There will surely be another 5K+ EB1 + EB2-ROW cases that will be submitted during the last quarter (July - Sep). So, overall we will have 25K+ (maybe 25K - 30K) pending EB1 + EB2-ROW applications already in the pipeline for next year by Oct'11. To me, this might indicate fewer spillovers for the next year, irrespective of EB1 and EB2-ROW usage in 2012.

pch053,
Again lot of variables, not only pending EB1&EB2ROW485 demand but also i140 pipeline (pending numbers almost doubled in the last 12 months), which could definitely include some porting cases!.

[Stemcell]

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

Q and the other experts
First of all thank you for all the hard work you all put in. Being a silent spectator it is just amazing to see all of you doing the crunching of numbers.
I have one questions and pardon me if its been asked and answered before.
Assuming this year when the July 07 point is cleared or even lets say July 07 is reached by May 2012, what are the guidelines for the dates to be moved forward.

Will the DOS arbitrarily choose a date, for example with all the rumors of NVC fee notices uptill June 2008, does that mean they arbitrarily chose June 2008 or does the guidelines say that when the demand has been met, the dates should be made 'current'....weather there will be a 'fiasco' or not...

Thank you in advance for answering my question.

[qesehmk]

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

Q and the other experts
First of all thank you for all the hard work you all put in. Being a silent spectator it is just amazing to see all of you doing the crunching of numbers.
I have one questions and pardon me if its been asked and answered before.
Assuming this year when the July 07 point is cleared or even lets say July 07 is reached by May 2012, what are the guidelines for the dates to be moved forward.

Will the DOS arbitrarily choose a date, for example with all the rumors of NVC fee notices uptill June 2008, does that mean they arbitrarily chose June 2008 or does the guidelines say that when the demand has been met, the dates should be made 'current'....weather there will be a 'fiasco' or not...

Thank you in advance for answering my question.

[saky007]

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

Q,

I might be totally out of line here but do you think we will get an answer from DOS/CO if we posed this question to them. A clarification in this regard would help so many of us plan better.

[Teja9999]

New to Forum, Liked it - Kudos Guys

Question here regarding Facts and data Table
did you guys account for following scenario when you are calculating Data
My PD is DEC 2007 however it took 26 Months to get my Labor Certified ( FEB 2010), does my number got included in dec data or feb 2010 data ?

just curious

[Stemcell]

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

Thank you for answering Q.
When July 07 happened do you all know how the situation was, was the demand zero at that time or was it just an accidental opening of gates.
Because if the the dates were made current in July 07 when demand was zero maybe it will be applicable this year or whenever we reach zero demand isnt it?

[srini1976]

Q,

What are the chances for this scenario:

Based on spillover received in 2011, Clear all EB2 (I & C) up to July 2007 by fiscal year 2011, Then in FY 2012 beginning Oct 2011 - April/May/Jun 2012 use the regular EB2 (I) quota for portings and then move dates EB2 & EB3 till Oct or Dec 2007. This way they will receive new filings (gradually) and also use the spill over (2012) to clear up cases in EB3(ROW & I)?

Does EB2 need to be current for any spillover to EB3?

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

[veni001]

New to Forum, Liked it - Kudos Guys

Question here regarding Facts and data Table
did you guys account for following scenario when you are calculating Data
My PD is DEC 2007 however it took 26 Months to get my Labor Certified ( FEB 2010), does my number got included in dec data or feb 2010 data ?

just curious

Teja9999,
Yes, please check FY-CY Matrix for PERM approvals (2007 to Q2-2011).

Your PERM certification should be part of the 1,005 certifications for PD 2007 in FY 2010.

[veni001]

Thank you for answering Q.
When July 07 happened do you all know how the situation was, was the demand zero at that time or was it just an accidental opening of gates.
Because if the the dates were made current in July 07 when demand was zero maybe it will be applicable this year or whenever we reach zero demand isnt it?

Stemcell,
I don't think DOS/USCIS was tracking demand closely or had coordination in setting monthly VB cut-off dates in 2007

[Teja9999]

Thanks for clarification, now i understood ( i am still a rookie )

[veni001]

Thanks for clarification, now i understood ( i am still a rookie )

Teja9999,
Welcome, we all started as rookie(s)

[Stemcell]

Stemcell,
I don't think DOS/USCIS was tracking demand closely or had coordination in setting monthly VB cut-off dates in 2007

Thank you Veni for the clarification.

[Stemcell]

' I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. '

Q,

If the person who received the NVC letter with the priority date of June 08 is to be believed someone in DOS may be thinking like you...to move the dates by 1 year. July 07 to June 08.....I am not a number cruncher but just your statement and the NVC letters seemed a coincidence....