EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[polapragada]

Well...my PD is Mar, 2008...LOL

recent 2 pages of discussions making me Excited!!!!

[Osaka001]

Thanks for the information, veni.
Assuming that USCIS has processed everyone till Aug 2007, as USCIS does not have any information about future 485 demand (as no one from IC filed 485 and no one is pre-adjudicated). Will they be making dates current then or there is something I am missing?
- mahmohan

Hi Mahmohan,

DOS is going to make it Current for next 2 bulletins for India & China, they are not going with any demand Data or the data USCIS has. better prepare for 2007 fiasco for EB2 this time.

[self.coach]

My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic).

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

[makmohan]

Osaka,
USCIS/DOS are unpredictable; hence the probability of they making EB2IC categories current is same as they not making them current. Let's hope for the best though.
- makmohan

[qblogfan]

Yes, based on the email from CO, he will publish the demand data next month.

Based on CO's input, I think we can see the employment demand numbers in the Aug bulletin (during early July), right?

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree.

It's hard to predict their next move. They always give people surprises.

Osaka,
USCIS/DOS are unpredictable; hence the probability of they making EB2IC categories current is same as they not making them current. Let's hope for the best though.
- makmohan

[vishnu]

"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".

That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?

[qblogfan]

I hope you can be current too. However, it's just some prediction and analysis. We have to watch for CO's next move. There are many GC gurus here and we should listen to what they say.

Well...my PD is Mar, 2008...LOL

recent 2 pages of discussions making me Excited!!!!

[qblogfan]

It's possible.

But now we are not sure whether the Spillover can clear all the demand yet.

If the spillover can clean up the demand, I think there is some chance to become current.

"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".

That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?

[mvinayam]

Hi,

Could somebody guide me where to see the attachment for the message in the below link.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html

Thanks

[neospeed]

Hi,

Could somebody guide me where to see the attachment for the message in the below link.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html

Thanks

http://www.mitbbs.com/article2/EB23/31329095_349.jpg

I hope that helps

[GCDespo]

It Says:

Demand Data:There were number of pressing issues going on at the time which demanded my attention leading up to the determination of the July dates. The posting of the employment demand is done strictly as a courtesy to the individuals who have an intrerest in that type od data.Had I taken time to update it last week that would have caused a delay in the determination /posting of the July dates. It will be published when the August dates are announced in early July.Further movement will be dependent upon the demand patterns between now and early July,and consultations with USCIS

[veni001]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the April figures.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm

Thanks Spec,
i140 completions are almost exactly same as FY2010 (OCT - APR). But the pending application number is increasing month after month, which is not a good news for next year SOFAD!

[neospeed]

"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".

That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?

I think they are going to move the dates until DEC 2007 or early 2008, so that they will have enough processed demand for the coming spill over season. Now a days dos and cis acting very cautiously regarding the date movements. Date movement to early 2008 + pwmb + porting will create enough demand for the next spillover season.

And also the spillover will be not that much for 2012 as the eb1 approvals getting diminished, this people will move to eb2 (row) which will eat up some of the spillover. In short there are so many moving variables dos and cis are monitoring going forward.

[veni001]

veni, I see. Got it. Thanks very much. It just adds more uncertainty even to be able to file EAD. If they go in controlled manner, my PD being April 08, the real predictable relief will come in or after July 2012. But we never know!

makmohan,
Assuming the sources providing NVC fee request e-mails are genuine, then EB2I&C should at least hit April 2008 before bouncing back into 2007.

[qblogfan]

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

makmohan,
Assuming the sources providing NVC fee request e-mails are genuine, then EB2I&C should at least hit April 2008 before bouncing back into 2007.

[qesehmk]

I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

[bieber]

I think any date beyond Aug1 2007 is pure speculation, moving dates cautiously when you have known demand is entirely different from estimating the future demand and moving the dates.

They can control the date movement only if they have sufficient cases to pre adjudicate and know the exact demand, the rules to build pipeline should technically be as much as they can allow and timing is working out perfect. if they assign all the visa numbers and still some left there will be only 2 possibilites
1. make the date C and accept everyone
2. move the dates according to CP demand and try to give them visa and meanwhile build the inventory based on that date

I don't think DOS/CIS is against anybody and want to stop ppl in line, if there is a chance I believe they will let everyone apply

[qblogfan]

I have to apologize for this if they used the data from here without listing the reference. I will pass the message to them and ask them to add reference if they want to use any data from Q's forum.

I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.

[qesehmk]

That's ok. No apologies required from anybody.
Lets continue to focus on topics that are valuable to readers of this forum.

I have to apologize for this if they used the data from here without listing the reference. I will pass the message to them and ask them to add reference if they want to use any data from Q's forum.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your kind understanding. I need to thank everyone for your hard work. I learnt a big deal from this forum.

That's ok. No apologies required from anybody.
Lets continue to focus on topics that are valuable to readers of this forum.

[neospeed]

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

Can you pls paste chinese link for the above information?

[qblogfan]

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31332681.html

It was writen in Chinese. If you use translator, you can find some info from it.

Can you pls paste chinese link for the above information?

[leo07]

The guy contacting CO might be real and the response from CO makes sense too. However, there is no doubt that he was acting on the information grabbed from this site.

Not that it should matter to me or anybody else, if only he could address/refer the source. Instead of passing it as his own.

I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.

[nayekal]

Referring the source is important and it should be mandatory. I read it some where in back pages before or after July VB, that this Chinese web site (http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html) mentioned what Q said earlier as their information and said Indians got the same info. It would be really great if they have mentioned Q's blog as the source.
But, I guess they are worried mentioning the source, thinking that viewers might join Q's blog instead of going to their site.

10 years ago, my Professor threatened me saying that he will give me E before gave me B, saying that I copied the info, but didn't give reference of the source.