I agree.Originally Posted by Zoroark
Mine is Nov 2007, good Lord, bless me this year and at least get me the EAD.
I agree.
Mine is Nov 2007, good Lord, bless me this year and at least get me the EAD.
My PD is Jan 2008. Bless me this year and at least get me the EAD/AP.
I think he has some chance of filing EAD in this summer.
If the date passes Aug 2007 (or the last date when people could file 485 during the 2007 fiasco) during this year by September or any bulletin; then there are no 485 filings. Will the dates become current then or the dates will still be moved on a month-to-month basis?
I think the PERMs really dip south only in 2009 so there will be significant (yet unknown) number of filings in rest of 2007 and 2008.
- makmohan
makmohan,
Please check PWMB and AUG-DEC 2007 PERM numbers(and beyond) posted in FACTS AND DATA section. You can apply EB2:EB3 factor to PERM numbers and 485 ratio to estimate expected EB2IC new demand based PD progression in the next couple of months.
Depending where EB2IC PD is going to be set in SEPT2011 VB either dates will stagnate if not retrogress to a point where USCIS can use FY 2012 EB2I regular quota in the first two quarters!
Last edited by veni001; 06-19-2011 at 11:32 PM.
Hi Veni
Does the processing time for 485 means it is taking 5 months or 6 months depending on the center for new applications(PWMB) or is it for the pre adjudicated cases?
Thanks
ifaith,
It is for the new applications including EB1 and EB2ROW.
Thanks for the information, veni.
Assuming that USCIS has processed everyone till Aug 2007, as USCIS does not have any information about future 485 demand (as no one from IC filed 485 and no one is pre-adjudicated). Will they be making dates current then or there is something I am missing?
- mahmohan
makmohan,
This was extensively discussed here before. Unlike in 2007 USCIS/DOS are coordinating together in setting monthly cutoff dates now, and also they have more visibility in to the data and expected demand.So we are believing that they will move EB2IC dates in controlled fashing, moving forward, rather than making cureent. But you will never now!
I found a post on the Chinese immigration website. I think it is an interesting post. If you guys think it's not good to post it here. Please remove. I just want to share this information with you guys. It has a strong indication of future PD movement.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html
In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.
I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.
I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...bCategoryId=64
In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she may have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.
This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."
In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990!
NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!
Last edited by qblogfan; 06-20-2011 at 10:04 AM. Reason: Link was not working
qblogfan,
Good info, thanks for posting.
Thanks for sharing .... No worries with quoting the source. That's the way to do it.
It is high time EB2I is made current so that people can start filing. (Realistically 1 Yr movement though is more probable).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the April figures.
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
veni, I see. Got it. Thanks very much. It just adds more uncertainty even to be able to file EAD. If they go in controlled manner, my PD being April 08, the real predictable relief will come in or after July 2012. But we never know!
Last edited by makmohan; 06-20-2011 at 09:32 AM.
Thanks for your kind understanding and support.
Thanks for your kind words. I am glad you liked this post.
1987??
There are times when I crib and fret about my PD moving slow.. someone has been waiting for over 2 decades.. makes me feel lucky and good about where I am at..
Yes, I agree. At the same time, I feel sad for this family. EB2-C&I should feel lucky.
FB4 is the slowest category in family based green card. I checked the visa bullitens to verify this post. The PD of PH FB4 was in 1987 in May 2010 VB and it moved to 1/1/1991. It is accurate. For the phillipines they were surprised to receive NVC notice in May 2010, but the PD did move into 1991 in September 2010. It is very possbiel DOS notified NVC the PD movement in advance. I believe they already have a preliminery list of dates. At the same time, these dates are the most conservative dates they determined. In another word, CO's office is confident that the PD will move to at least those dates on their list. Just my two cents.
May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to use visa number, newly submitted case takes 3-4 months to become demand)
Dec 2010-1/1/1988 (they got enough cases ready for approval, then retrogress)
July 2011-5/15/1988
Last edited by qblogfan; 06-20-2011 at 12:08 PM.
It seems clear, or is at least increasingly unlikely, that DOS are not going to publish this data.
I wonder if we will see it again this year.
Possibly, it is a telling omission. DOS can move the dates with no visibility into the process, not that there is much anyway.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Does anyone know the latest PD for which one has received NVC fee notice (from different forums)? Going by the above example in the FB-4 category, the PDs should move to at least the latest PD for which one has received the NVC fee notice in the next few months.
Only one case with PD June 2008 received fee notice. I am not sure whether it's false info. or not.
Several PD April 2008 got fee notice and it's more reliable.
On a slightly unrelated note, the Dates Movement chart in the 1st page shows EB3-Mexico's likely PD to be July'11. I assume it is a typo error, since the current PD for EB3-Mexico is July'05.
A Chinese guy contacted Mr. Co and he replied:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html
Look at the attachment in English.
It can only mean that they want to move dates at their own discretion. Generally this would be a bad news ... but in this case I think it bodes well for the retrogressed countries.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Based on CO's input, I think we can see the employment demand numbers in the Aug bulletin (during early July), right?
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