EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qblogfan]

I agree and I support your decision.

Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.

[gcforever]

Q,

It has lot to do with timing. People get more excited when PDs move fast and start looking for as much information as possible.

A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!

[bieber]

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

[leo07]

the least they could do is to give credit. I guess, they did it anyways

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

[leo07]

Congrats Baba. Thanks for the information.

Last week i got my GC still can't resist reading this forum daily and help some of my friends.

http://www.submitexpress.com/free-submission.html

[qesehmk]

We already have one. Dont we? Pls check the right hand side top place in the menu bar. Or right near the words "welcome" at the top ther should be a facebook connect. Once you connect you will see the like button.

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??

Thanks ssvp. How did you find out the pagerank is zero?

I suspect there might be some SEO option that you might have disabled in VBulletin as part of the initial install(going by my experience with Wordpress). Also Google PageRank for this post - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...alculations%29 - is 0, which is really strange in my opinion. There ought to be some SEO setting that is disabled right now.

[gcwait2007]

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

Q seems to be Q Chang

[qesehmk]

You almost got it right. Its Quing Quong!

Apologies to my chinese friends!

Q seems to be Q Chang

[ssvp22]

Thanks ssvp. How did you find out the pagerank is zero?

On Google Chrome, you can install following extension - https://chrome.google.com/webstore/d...ahohc?hl=en-US . Actually page rank is not 0. Its just not set. I think there might be issues in the way the url is built since i have never really seen urls like this before. Google Webmaster can help find issues - http://www.google.com/webmasters/ - but i cannot be too sure of that.

[Spectator]

For anyone interested, the number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for June has now exceeded the total for the whole of May.

On the other hand, approvals tailed off dramatically in the second half of May, although I don't expect that to happen this month.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your hard work! It's very good data analysis.

For anyone interested, the number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for June has now exceeded the total for the whole of May.

On the other hand, approvals tailed off dramatically in the second half of May, although I don't expect that to happen this month.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010

[tanu_75]

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

[qesehmk]

I am sure Bieber said it jokingly. Our efforts though mostly helpful to EB2I, are not restricted to Indians only. If chinese find value in it, they are welcome to learn and benefit.

To be fair with MITTABS website, once we complained about not being properly credited, they have mostly given us the credit for any information they have reproduced. Anyway ... but lets move on. Its not worth arguing over.

p.s. - I just want to reiterate that either this website or the work done on IV was all a team effort. Many people contributed then and many people contribute now. Just want to make sure all of us generally insist on collective credit - unless of course when somebody contributes very specific things.

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

[bieber]

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

Conspiracy theory, such a loaded word. as Q mentioned I did not post that seriously at least I don't use smiley if I'm serious about something .

[veni001]

I140: (EB1-3 Primary)
NSC – 4.0 months
TSC – 7.5 months
VSC – 39.5 months
USCIS National Goal = 4.0 months
USCIS National Average = 17.0 months

EBI485:
CSC – 4.0 months
NSC – 4.9 months
TSC – 6.0 months
VSC – 5.6 months
USCIS National Goal = 4.0 months
USCIS National Average = 4.8 months

I360: (EB4 Primary)
CSC – 5.0 months
NSC – 5.0 months
TSC – 9.1 months
VSC – 5.0 months
USCIS National Goal = 5.0 months
USCIS National Average = 5.0 months

I526: (EB5 Primary)
CSC – 5.0 months
NSC – 5.0 months
TSC – 31.4 months
VSC – 5.0 months
USCIS National Goal = 5.0 months
USCIS National Average = 11.3 months


CSC – California Service Center
NSC – Nebraska Service Center
TSC – Texas Service Center
VSC – Vermont Service Center

[qesehmk]

That's a nice compilation Veni. May be worthwhile mentioning which date is being processed today. Also this is worthy of copying to facts and data section.

I140: (EB1-3 Primary)
NSC – 4.0 months
TSC – 7.5 months
VSC – 39.5 months
........

[qblogfan]

yes, agree, we should be friendly on this forum. It's not a big deal and keep cool!

I think anyone who comeacross Q's forum, they can immediately find a friendliness , which is very rare . Let us hope to maintain the same forever.

[veni001]

That's a nice compilation Veni. May be worthwhile mentioning which date is being processed today. Also this is worthy of copying to facts and data section.

Q,
Will post it in FACTS AND DATA section, we can update it on a regular basis to see how fast or slow the inventory is moving.

USCIS is not providing the receipt date they are processing for all application types, when ever available we can post it here.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. I think when they provide a range (e.g. 3 months) it means for all applications it will take 3 months to process. When they provide a date .... it means they are backlogged and they are processing applications only prior to that date. Correct me if I am wrong.

Q,
Will post it in FACTS AND DATA, we can update it on a regular basis to see how fast or slow the inventory is moving.

USCIS is not providing the receipt date they are processing for all application types, when ever available we can post it here.

[veni001]

Thanks. I think when they provide a range (e.g. 3 months) it means for all applications it will take 3 months to process. When they provide a date .... it means they are backlogged and they are processing applications only prior to that date. Correct me if I am wrong.

Q,
I think you are absolutely correct.

[Spectator]

Veni,

Can I introduce a slight note of caution in using simple averages across all the Service Centers.

I-140s are only dealt with by NSC and TSC these days. There are historic outliers, but VSC only had 4 cases in March 2011 and CSC had none.

Whilst the average shows 17 months because of the VSC 39.5 months, a weighted average would show a different picture.

Similarly, for I485, NSC and TSC now handle all EB cases, but they don't ONLY handle EB cases.

Can I recommend this document http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245 which I referenced in Significant Sources of Data for use in Calculations http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

Buried in the document is some fantastic information about what each of the Service Centers handle (and what they do not).

[veni001]

Veni,

Can I introduce a slight note of caution in using simple averages across all the Service Centers.

I-140s are only dealt with by NSC and TSC these days. There are historic outliers, but VSC only had 4 cases in March 2011 and CSC had none.

Whilst the average shows 17 months because of the VSC 39.5 months, a weighted average would show a different picture.

Similarly, for I485, NSC and TSC now handle all EB cases, but they don't ONLY handle EB cases.

Can I recommend this document http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245 which I referenced in Significant Sources of Data for use in Calculations http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

Buried in the document is some fantastic information about what each of the Service Centers handle (and what they do not).

Spec,
Good information, I have made changes to the processing times post in FACTS AND DATA section.
I have deleted national averages (agree doesn't make much sense) and only left respective processing centers under each category.

[Spectator]

Veni,

Good Stuff.

I know USCIS are starting a trial of a more real time system. It will be interesting if we can see the difference that makes.

[dokuparthi]

Hi Gurus,

My PD is 19 May 2008 in EB2 Category India. Can any one tell when can I expect my PD is current.

Thank,
Enjoy007

[Zoroark]

You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting GC between Jul-Sep 2013.

Hi Gurus,

My PD is 19 May 2008 in EB2 Category India. Can any one tell when can I expect my PD is current.

Thank,
Enjoy007