EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Spec,
Either that or those filed on July 30/31,2007 (Fee change) are grouped under August for USCIS convenience in the report?

I have now updated the post to reflect Decision dates later than August 17, 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

After the recent conversations, I believe it reflects reality better. I think that shows the power of the forum.

If the consensus is that this is wrong, it is a trivial matter to return it to Decision Dates later than July 31, 2007, but as tonyromo mentioned, the numbers for July 2007 prior to July 31, 2007 then look quite stupid. The change doesn't entirely address that criticism, but does at least go part way to it.

[dreamGC]

Hi Saky007,
Can you post the IV link? I don't find any such entry.

Thanks

<< Saky007 said

NVC letter to send payment for EB2I PD June 12, 2008

A user posted on IV that their lawyer received a mail around a month ago from NVC to pay filing fees. Exciting !!
>>

[tonyromo]

Spec,

Thanks ! It really reflects reality much better now. Just for an example if my PD was july 15 2007 and I got perm approved on Aug 10, I would have definetly filed for I-485.

On the side note, did you notice the effect this change has done to PWMB numbers. Now total PWMB perms (talking cut off date of July 31st) from your table for IC is 3651 only. Considering EB2:EB3 ratio as 70:30 and 2.1 as primary to dependant ratio for EB2 and having 100% approval rate at I-140 stage, we have PWMB numbers as 5.3K max. (Instead of 7-8K PWMB numbers we have calculated before).

Let us know your thoughts !

On the other note, only recently I have started looking into whole immigration process. I would like to mention that there is no single source of information better than this website when it comes to EB immigration. Thanks to you, Q, veni, Teddy ...etc. !!

I have now updated the post to reflect Decision dates later than August 17, 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

After the recent conversations, I believe it reflects reality better. I think that shows the power of the forum.

If the consensus is that this is wrong, it is a trivial matter to return it to Decision Dates later than July 31, 2007, but as tonyromo mentioned, the numbers for July 2007 prior to July 31, 2007 then look quite stupid. The change doesn't entirely address that criticism, but does at least go part way to it.

[saky007]

Folks,

With all due respect to these 'my friend received letter' and ' my friend's friend received a letter', can we start a new thread and use that thread for such comments.
I know I would have had some comments that are out-of-place on this thread, but Admin can feel free to remove all these comments.

Since these pages are getting filled up so fast over the last month, I'm worried that if I'm missing out on some thing here Hope you can understand my pain

Nothing personal, just my own opinion

Best Regards!

Edit by Spec ;- I have moved the posts, but I don't want to create another post saying so.

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.

[Spectator]

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.

I partly agree with you.

What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.

I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.

Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests

I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.

I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading

It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.

[saky007]

I partly agree with you.

What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.

I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.

Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests

I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.

I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading

It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.

No problem. As long as folks can go to some place on this forum to get this information, that should be sufficient.

[bieber]

saky007

as someone asked, if possible please provide the thread name and page no of iv related information

[Spectator]

I compared 2007 perm Certifications from Spec's Perm breakdown thread VS total I-485 submissions from inventory. I took the available break down data and guestimated for the perm certifications after aug 17/07

Kanmani,

I wouldn't use the figures from the original August 2009 Inventory. USCIS admitted there were errors.

There are pros and cons to which other Inventory you use.

Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing whether the Inventory is complete. Some cases might still be at LO, especially in EB3.

For EB3 in particular, you need to increase the Inventory numbers to account for CP cases, or your ratios will be wrong.

The EB3 rates are China - 30 to 50% and India - 12-15%. 1 or 2% is about right for EB2 cases.

Hope that helps.

[qesehmk]

Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.

I partly agree with you.

What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.

I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.

Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests

I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.

I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading

It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.

[self.coach]

My EB-2 priority date is August 2009.
1) When do you gurus think I be able to apply for i-485, and
2) Get greencard?

I just joined this forum and you guys are simply awsome (not to mention that I dont understand any of this math)!

[Spectator]

Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.

Q,

It is already done. See the new thread here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests

If you think I have been too zealous, or the discussions should have been moved at a later date, then feel free to move them back.

It was not an easy decision anyway, so I certainly wouldn't be upset. I can see both sides of the "argument".

I have left a couple of posts in the original thread so that the topic is not sidelined - it is very important to the predictions.

[qesehmk]

Spec ... we seem to be beating this to death. So thats fine. NExt time somebody has questions ... we can point him/her to the new location. Thanks for moving the topic to an offline thread.

p.s. - I think this scheme works the best. Lets discuss everything under this thread nad once the topic is well established we can move to a more relevant threat that acts as depository of knowledge.

Q,

It is already done. See the new thread here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests

If you think I have been too zealous, or the discussions should have been moved at a later date, then feel free to move them back.

It was not an easy decision anyway, so I certainly wouldn't be upset. I can see both sides of the "argument".

I have left a couple of posts in the original thread so that the topic is not sidelined - it is very important to the predictions.

[bieber]

Q

if your source reveals that dates will be C and it happens, then we will hit 1million mark in matter of days i guess

[qesehmk]

And if the info turns out wrong then we will get 1 million "Joote" !!

Q, if your source reveals that dates will be C and it happens, then we will hit 1million mark in matter of days i guess

sssbpgmgc, thanks for your information. I have submitted the site for SEO. Lets see if that helps. Also appreciate you referring to friends.

baba2, big congrats on your GC!! Also feel sorry that we may not see you around as much. But appreciate taking the time and penning down a few words. Everything helps! We are all quite weary here!!

[saky007]

saky007

as someone asked, if possible please provide the thread name and page no of iv related information

Page 170 of the EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II).. thread.

[leo07]

I kind of agree with your argument too. My worry was more about false posts which we don't have a way of validating the information. If we start going that path there could be more of those. No worries, I had deleted my posts.

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.

[bieber]

Page 170 of the EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II).. thread.

I could locate the post meanwhile, thanks

it looks like they sent this notice after june bulletin, if this keeps happening Dec2008 may be the possibility

[ChampU]

I could locate the post meanwhile, thanks

it looks like they sent this notice after june bulletin, if this keeps happening Dec2008 may be the possibility

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??

[ssvp22]

I suspect there might be some SEO option that you might have disabled in VBulletin as part of the initial install(going by my experience with Wordpress). Also Google PageRank for this post - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...alculations%29 - is 0, which is really strange in my opinion. There ought to be some SEO setting that is disabled right now.

And if the info turns out wrong then we will get 1 million "Joote" !!




sssbpgmgc, thanks for your information. I have submitted the site for SEO. Lets see if that helps. Also appreciate you referring to friends.

baba2, big congrats on your GC!! Also feel sorry that we may not see you around as much. But appreciate taking the time and penning down a few words. Everything helps! We are all quite weary here!!

[desi4green]

First of all before I start with my question, let me tell you that I didnt know about this blog until day before yesterday when I saw Q's post on Trackitt. After reading through this discussion (read through atleast few pages of this topic) I have to hand it that you guys have quite good understanding of the H1 + GC + issues. Keep it up.

Here is my question. Its about PWMB's (People Who missed the boat) -> people who missed filling completely or missed their dependents. I have heard over and over that if they push the date to August 2007, we will have suddent surge of all the PWMB. Is that accurate statement. As they moved the date forward, wouldnt some if not most PWMB would have filed when their date became current. May be I dont understand the topic. What are your thoughts on this?

FYI... I am a EB2I PD: Dec 2007

[imechanix]

First of all before I start with my question, let me tell you that I didnt know about this blog until day before yesterday when I saw Q's post on Trackitt. After reading through this discussion (read through atleast few pages of this topic) I have to hand it that you guys have quite good understanding of the H1 + GC + issues. Keep it up.

Here is my question. Its about PWMB's (People Who missed the boat) -> people who missed filling completely or missed their dependents. I have heard over and over that if they push the date to August 2007, we will have suddent surge of all the PWMB. Is that accurate statement. As they moved the date forward, wouldnt some if not most PWMB would have filed when their date became current. May be I dont understand the topic. What are your thoughts on this?

FYI... I am a EB2I PD: Dec 2007

Yes, there will be a surge in PWMB if the dates reach Aug 2007 in next VB. It takes about 6 months to approve 485. So, it is highly unlikely that PWMB will get approved in FY 2011. Hence, there is an estimation of around 5K PWMB demand that will be added in FY 2012 which most likely is going to retrogress the VB dates post Sep 2011.

[pch053]

Most of the PWMB's have their PDs in the range of Jan'07 - July'07 and even within this range the significant # of PWMB's will be in the later half (i.e. with PDs around May - June - July'07). Since the current PD for EB2-I is March'07, most of the PWMB's haven't got the opportunity to file their I485 yet. However, if the dates move past July - Aug'07 in the next two bulletins, all the PWMB's will have the chance to file their I485 and that being the reason for the surge of PWMB's.

[imechanix]

Hypothetically,
1. If EB3 porting number is around 250 per month, and
2. All the ported applications are pre 2007, and
3. Every month 250 ported applications are approved

Then,
Is it possible that starting FY2012, EB2-India dates will retrogress in 2006 & will never reach 2007 atleast in first 3 quarters due to per country IC limit ~ 250 visas.

[qblogfan]

It's great news! thanks for sharing!

[qblogfan]

It is great news! I found the same information on IV.

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??