Teddy,Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
That's correct, about 2k EB2IC PWMB from Jan 2007 to 01JUN2007 or 5-6k from Jan 2007 to 01JUL2007
Teddy,
That's correct, about 2k EB2IC PWMB from Jan 2007 to 01JUN2007 or 5-6k from Jan 2007 to 01JUL2007
EB2:EB3 split is actually 70:30 for I+C. Dependents ratio is 2.09. - From Facts and Data. And I think approval/conversion to I-485 rate cannot be as low as 80% even after accounting for abandoned cases, duplicate cases, denials etc. Considering how expensive it is to go through the process, very unlikely that the rate would be this low. And I thought the dependents ratio included all these in it. Doesn't it? The rule of thumb may be
EB2(I+C) 485 demand in a CY ~= 1.5 PERM(I+C) approvals in that CY
I am reallya pessimist, am I not? LOL!
All.... Going through the recent pages onthis thread... I understood that most of the people are in agreement that dates will move past 01 Aug 2007 for sure... I guess most of the disagreement/argument is till when the dates would move forward and where the retrogression will bring th dates back to.... Right??
I am just hoping that I will have a chance to apply for 485 with a PD of oct 22 2007....This year...
Me too and some of my colleagues with the same PD..Oct 12th 2007
Guru's & Others,
Thanks for the clarification on PWMB estimation. Now, based on your feedbacks I have better equation to estimate demand data for EB2IC from Jan'07 to July'07 after Sep 2011. This demand includes both PWMB & EB3 Conversions assuming preadjucated cases are approved.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Worst Case Demand per Month= PermIC Per Month*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)*(Percent Denial)+(EB3 Conversions Per Month);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.75, Dependent Factor =2.1, Percent Denial = 10%, EB3 Conversions = 4000/12 = 333
Worst Case Demand (PWMB +EB3 Conversions):
Jan'07 -> 486
Feb'07 -> 610
Mar'07 -> 811
Apr'07 -> 1467
May'07 -> 1761
Jun'07 -> 2068
July'07 -> 3075
Total -> 10,278
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best Case Demand per Month= PermIC Per Month*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)+(EB3 Conversions Per Month);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.50, Dependent Factor =2, Percent Denial = 20%, , EB3 Conversions = 2000/12 = 167
Best Case Demand (PWMB +EB3 Conversions):
Jan'07 -> 253
Feb'07 -> 323
Mar'07 -> 436
Apr'07 -> 807
May'07 -> 972
Jun'07 -> 1146
July'07 -> 1714
Total -> 5,651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If India & China recieve 250 visas each month the following can be approximate visa bulletin movement post Sep 2011.
**********************************
Worst Case VB Movement 2011-2012
Oct' 11 -> Jan' 07
Nov' 11 -> Feb' 07
Dec' 11 -> Feb' 07
Jan' 12 -> Feb' 07
Feb' 12 -> Mar' 07
Mar' 12 -> Mar' 07
Apr' 12 -> Mar' 07
May' 12 -> Apr' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
**********************************
**********************************
Best Case VB Movement 2011-2012
Oct' 11 -> Feb' 07
Nov' 11 -> Mar' 07
Dec' 11 -> Apr' 07
Jan' 12 -> Apr' 07
Feb' 12 -> Apr' 07
Mar' 12 -> May' 07
Apr' 12 -> May' 07
May' 12 -> May' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
**********************************
This is just an attempt for estimating post Sep 2011 movement. Gurus & others any critic is welcome.
Thanks.
Last edited by imechanix; 06-15-2011 at 08:56 PM.
Imechanix,
India: China ratio is 3:1 or 4:1, so retrogression is not going to be same for both. Moreover, after retrogression, the movement of dates forward won't be same either. China will move at least 3 months faster than India and at most 9 months faster.
Which means India will utilize more spill over visas before it matches with China's date movement.
My colleague at work(PWMB) just posted today that his PD is Aug 2006 and he became current with June bulletin, he submitted his papers and got a receipt notice of June 9th 2011. Is there any chance of his application being approved by end of Sept 2011.
kd2008/nayekal,
I agree China movement will be different as it willl be far ahead after Sep 2011 Bulletin. Ok, I corrected my calculations and added 4:1 split in the estimated demand data (PWMB+EB3 Conversions) between India and China.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Anticipated Demand (PWMB + EB3 Conversions)
---------------Worst Case---------------Best Case----------Worst Case---------------Best Case
---------------India---------------India-----------------China---------------China
Jan' 07---------------365---------------90---------------122---------------63
Feb' 07---------------457---------------242---------------152---------------81
Mar' 07---------------608---------------327---------------203---------------109
Apr' 07---------------1101---------------605---------------367---------------202
May' 07---------------1321---------------729---------------440---------------243
Jun' 07---------------1551---------------859---------------517---------------286
Jul' 07---------------2306---------------1285---------------769---------------428
Total---------------7709---------------4238---------------2570---------------1413
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
************************************************** **********
Estimated VB 2011-2012 Movement Subject to 250 visas per month allowable visa
------------------------------India---------------------------------------China---------------
----------------------Worst---------------Best---------------Worst---------------Best
Oct'11---------------Jan' 07---------------Mar' 07---------------Mar' 07---------------Jul' 07
Nov'11---------------Feb' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Aug' 07
Dec'11---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07
Jan'12---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Jun' 07---------------Apr' 07
Feb'12---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Jul' 07 ---------------Apr' 07
Mar'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Jul' 07 ---------------Aug' 07
Apr'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07---------------Sep' 07
May'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07---------------Sep' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
************************************************** **********
Let me know what you think.
Last edited by imechanix; 06-15-2011 at 10:53 PM.
Its unlikely that his case will be approved by Sep'11 as USCIS is currently processing Oct'10/Dec'10 (depending on service center) submitted applications. However, he will surely get approved once it crosses Sep'11. Even if EB2-I retrogress at that point, it will surely not retrogress until Aug'06.
kd2008,
It can't be 1.5 times! Just look at PERM & 485data for I&C for CY 2006
I&C 2006 PD Certified in FY2006 = 18,011
I&C 2006 PD Certified FY2007-11 =14,746
I&C 2006 PD Total = 32,757
EB2I&C 2006 PD 485 known demand =27,159+porting based on Dec 2009 inventory update.
Ratio ~= 0.83
Note:This is only for discussion purposes for people like to get EB2IC ballpark estimate based on PERM approvals.
Cool, thanks for correcting.
EB3 I+C inventory with PD 2006 in Dec 2009 inventory report was ~ 12,300. So roughly the split was 70/30.
kd2008,
Agree with 70/30 split for EBI&C, this was discussed and confirmed earlier also.
In-addition this discussion brings two interesting observations
1. In any given CY(2007-2010) EB2IC demand is less than 30k
2. EB2IC known demand(2007PWMB - Q1CY2011) will be about 85k
Veni, thanks a bunch! You are a peach!
imechanix,
One thing you might want to consider is the cycle time for the PWMB I-485 to be adjudicated.
I'll use 8 months as an example only.
Essentially, dates to the end of Feb 2007 are Current from July 2011 and the applications probably won't reach the Service Centers (from the lockboxes) until August.
They only count as demand to DOS when USCIS requests a visa, so that wouldn't happen until March/April 2012, when the application is adjudicated.
Until that time, the Cut Off dates wouldn't be affected by PWMB / New applicants. Probably only Porting cases would be counted as demand, since they have underlying pre-adjudicated I-485 cases.
Say for the May 2012 VB, that more unused visas are announced from EB1. Then the numbers per month jump and retrogression is less likely.
Given all that, I don't think the dates would ever retrogress as far back as Jan 2007. There aren't that many early PWMB and they won't become demand until well after October 2012.
The largest PWMB demand might not appear until more visas were available from EB1. This might have the effect of stalling forward movement, but it likely wouldn't cause further retrogression.
It is something to consider at least.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I-140 Anamoly
On a different topic, Ron Gotcher's newsletter yesterday discussed 3 key reasons behind delays in 140.
1. Ability to pay is being questioned
2. 3 Yr undergrad degree is being questions regardless whether teh applicant has MS or PHD from US.
3. Employer-employee relationship in consulting companies is being scrutinized.
The net effect is increase in I-140 inventory. This of course bodes well for current EB2IC backlog reduction. However, here is something that is baffling to me. Hope somebody might be able to throw light on this.
If you look at the increase in pending 140 (P), it is incosistent with the receipts (R) and approvals (A) and awaiting customer action increase (W).
Theoretically P = R - A - W
But somehow the formula doesn't work on the data published on USCIS dashboard.
Wonder if anybody has any better insights?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Q - that is on the processing delays. But why is there less demand itself for EB1?
Q, that means the USCIS data is unreliable. I am quoting form a trackitt thread:
They said that they may be able to get more accurate up-to-date information once they go completely digital, but not right now, as they need to compile the data from different sources and match it to their database along with other checks and balances.
Less demand is in terms of visas due to delay in 485 processing. But 485 receipts are not low by any means.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
People who port from EB3 to EB2 should be counted with the prior PD and not the new PERM filing date. I just wanted to bring it up so you don't double count these numbers. If the estimates are correct then ~ 5-6K GCs every year goes to this porting bucket. So we might have to reduce ~ 2800 K each year in PERM numbers.
Q,
Not had time to think about it much, but one immediate thought is that not all of A reduces P.
Completions (either Approvals or Denials) also come from the Pre-adjudicated total, so it would only be a % of A.
The basis of the pre-adjudicated total has also changed with the return of cases from LO in January 2011.
As others have said, the data is probably not good enough either for such precise calculations.
Hope that helps.
Last edited by Spectator; 06-16-2011 at 09:45 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
ok thanks Q - I thought that applications were also lower...
Q I believe that this discrepancy can be explained in the following way. In their jargon Completion means approval's + denials and essentially 1 record has just 1 status for the month, so if for any reason a case see's an approval or denial in the same month the report is only showing it as a completion, even though every thing would have started as a receipt. The dashboard is kind of more intended towards management reporting with management really more interested in seeing the volumes ball park. The equation you give will add up if all states of the application are captured by the dates within every month.
Teddy - whats the E2E memo?
Spec I am not sure about this. I think whether a 485 is preadjudicated or not the corresponding 140 case would be classified as P or W until it is approved or denied.
Secondly, 485 adjudication will not happen unless the underlying 140 is approved. So not sure what you mean by preadj.
However I do agree that the data itself is not quite clean and so probably not much helpful.
Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
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