EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

From what I have understood from the different posts it that there are visas available and they are lot more applications available, however owing to the processing time the applications are not being tied to a visa. In this scenario what happens to those visas that are not tied to an application and are sitting out there.

natvyas,

The processing time will only be applicable to new applications submitted, not the existing pre-adjudicated inventory.

I think it is unlikely that there will be more visas available than applications in EB2 that can be immediately approved to consume them. It is a big deal to make sufficient visas available to clear the current backlog.

If there are, some could be used for CP cases ahead of July 2007, if the Cut Off Dates are moved beyond July 2007 because of the different way that NVC process CP cases.

In the worst case, EB3-ROW can be advanced slightly further than otherwise, so that pre-adjudicated cases there can consume the visas.

I think it is unlikely we will see that last scenario, unless there are substantial numbers of previously pre-adjudicated EB2-IC cases that cannot be closed out for some unknown reason.

For new applications that can not be processed in time to approve this FY, they can be processed to the point of pre-adjudication and then wait for the Cut Off Dates to become Current again for approval.

[Spectator]

I am increasing thinking that DOS might (and should) move the date beyond July 2007 in September, regardless of whether there is sufficient SOFAD to cover approvals of all the current backlog.

There need to be sufficient cases ready to be approved next year. Moving the dates once FY2012 starts is problematical because the initial limits apply.

DOS are surely going to get close enough this FY that they can put any excess movement down to unduly pessimistic estimations.

This will allow cases to be collected for next year and give the maximum time for them to be adjudicated.

When FY2012 starts in October, the Cut Off Date can be retrogressed to the real level and progress according to the law.

Under this scenario, depending on the exact level of SOFAD, approvals in September may stop when the visa supply is exhausted. Last year, there were reports that FB visas ran out 2 weeks before the end of the FY.

Of course, this is mere speculation, with no facts to back it up.

[ChampU]

I am increasing thinking that DOS might (and should) move the date beyond July 2007 in September, regardless of whether there is sufficient SOFAD to cover approvals of all the current backlog.

There need to be sufficient cases ready to be approved next year. Moving the dates once FY2012 starts is problematical because the initial limits apply.
Of course, this is mere speculation, with no facts to back it up.

Spec, in your estimates, how far ahead of July 2007 would build enough inventory that would cover approvals in FY 2012.

I agree that moving dates forward and retrogressing in October is a much feasible solution than waiting for the current backlog to exhaust and then opening the doors to accept new applications in Q3/Q4 2012.

[mvinayam]

Found out the link in trackitt for June Inventory Data.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

Thanks,
mvinayam

[haripathhi]

Spec,

Here's what beats me and I may be entirely wrong. If the dates move to Aug, 2007 (which they very well might) in the next bulletin, then would DOS not have an idea about the amount of 485 apps filed? Looking at that count, would they want to move the dates even a month ahead cause they will have sufficient applications for sometime next year (at least for the first two quarters - based on the PWMB population)? My guess is that even if they stay put at Aug 2007 until the first two quarters of next year, they will have enough applications to process till then. After which they can move it next year...Sorry, I am being a little pessimistic here.

I am increasing thinking that DOS might (and should) move the date beyond July 2007 in September, regardless of whether there is sufficient SOFAD to cover approvals of all the current backlog.

There need to be sufficient cases ready to be approved next year. Moving the dates once FY2012 starts is problematical because the initial limits apply.

DOS are surely going to get close enough this FY that they can put any excess movement down to unduly pessimistic estimations.

This will allow cases to be collected for next year and give the maximum time for them to be adjudicated.

When FY2012 starts in October, the Cut Off Date can be retrogressed to the real level and progress according to the law.

Under this scenario, depending on the exact level of SOFAD, approvals in September may stop when the visa supply is exhausted. Last year, there were reports that FB visas ran out 2 weeks before the end of the FY.

Of course, this is mere speculation, with no facts to back it up.

[qesehmk]

While spec gets back to you ... let me try to do something else.

Lets try to pain the picture that DoS / USCIS do not want any new 485s and try to scrape through the inventory they have as much as tehy can.

So lets say they move dates to Jul/Aug 2007. That will allow all PWMBs to file (approx 5K). That is more than sufficient to create demand equal or more than 2012 supply. In fact the ongoing EB3 conversions are covering the entire supply of visas for EB2I. This story will be true until May 2012 hits. Which is when extra SOFAD may be available. How much extra? That's anyone's guess. But I would say at least 10K even if we assume EB1 and EB2ROW come roaring back. So the worst case scenario would require the dates not only move past Aug 2007 but that they move past well in advance to create sufficient pipeline. How much is well in advance? May be 9 months at least. So thats a movement in Oct or November of 2011 latest.

That's why I agree w Spec's logic. If the dates move around Aug 2007 in next couple of months and then they will definitely move at least by 6 months in next 2 months and then retrogress. The retrogression is necessary to allow processing in FIFO manner.

Spec,

Here's what beats me and I may be entirely wrong. If the dates move to Aug, 2007 (which they very well might) in the next bulletin, then would DOS not have an idea about the amount of 485 apps filed? Looking at that count, would they want to move the dates even a month ahead cause they will have sufficient applications for sometime next year (at least for the first two quarters - based on the PWMB population)? My guess is that even if they stay put at Aug 2007 until the first two quarters of next year, they will have enough applications to process till then. After which they can move it next year...Sorry, I am being a little pessimistic here.

[ChampU]

While spec gets back to you ... let me try to do something else.

Lets try to pain the picture that DoS / USCIS do not want any new 485s and try to scrape through the inventory they have as much as tehy can.

So lets say they move dates to Jul/Aug 2007. That will allow all PWMBs to file (approx 5K). That is more than sufficient to create demand equal or more than 2012 supply. In fact the ongoing EB3 conversions are covering the entire supply of visas for EB2I. This story will be true until May 2012 hits. Which is when extra SOFAD may be available. How much extra? That's anyone's guess. But I would say at least 10K even if we assume EB1 and EB2ROW come roaring back. So the worst case scenario would require the dates not only move past Aug 2007 but that they move past well in advance to create sufficient pipeline. How much is well in advance? May be 9 months at least. So thats a movement in Oct or November of 2011 latest.

That's why I agree w Spec's logic. If the dates move around Aug 2007 in next couple of months and then they will definitely move at least by 6 months in next 2 months and then retrogress. The retrogression is necessary to allow processing in FIFO manner.

Q, Assuming the dates move to June/July 2007 in the August bulletin and then X months ahead in the September bulletin and then retrogress in October, the cut off date would be in the June-August 2007 (PD of the PWMB whose case could not be processed in FY 2011) range, right?
From November onwards the date will move @ 250 visas per month until the next spillover season starts..Is that correct?

[pch053]

I think there is a possibility that from Oct/Nov onwards, the cutoff dates might remain static anywhere between June - Aug'07 as there will be enough PWMB cases + a steady flow of EB3 -> EB2 conversions. Probably, the dates will move again from next May but this assumes that USCIS has already moved the dates forward past the Aug'07 mark in this Sep bulletin itself to create a new pipeline of EB2I/C cases. Look forward to hear what Q, Spec and others think on this!

[leo07]

Hi ChampU,

VB Dates will definitely stagnate, if not retrogress.(depending on the forward leap it takes of course). I'd assume the dates would move just as the last two years, but with some technical improvements. Like, 2011 DOS/CIS coordination is better than 2010.

Best!

Q, Assuming the dates move to June/July 2007 in the August bulletin and then X months ahead in the September bulletin and then retrogress in October, the cut off date would be in the June-August 2007 (PD of the PWMB whose case could not be processed in FY 2011) range, right?
From November onwards the date will move @ 250 visas per month until the next spillover season starts..Is that correct?

[ChampU]

Hi ChampU,

VB Dates will definitely stagnate, if not retrogress.(depending on the forward leap it takes of course). I'd assume the dates would move just as the last two years, but with some technical improvements. Like, 2011 DOS/CIS coordination is better than 2010.

Best!

I agree that because of better co-ordination between CIS and DOS, there would be more transparency in the VBs, inventory and the demand data. But I doubt if the movement would anything like the last 2 years.
A consequence of July 2007 activity was that the demand of visas was known and it offered the CIS a 4 year window to pre-adjudicate the applications and provide accurate numbers to the DoS. Thats the reason dates moved smoothly and the prediction models proposed by the experts on this forum were spot on.

With the current inventory nearly depleted, we again encounter muddy waters of unknown demand.. that combined with the economic downturn in 2008/2009.. AND A POSSIBLE BRAIN DRAIN from this forum (the gurus WILL BE greened in the next 1-2 months) we again are left with speculating possible movements in FY 2012.

[leo07]

I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw

I agree that because of better co-ordination between CIS and DOS, there would be more transparency in the VBs, inventory and the demand data. But I doubt if the movement would anything like the last 2 years.
A consequence of July 2007 activity was that the demand of visas was known and it offered the CIS a 4 year window to pre-adjudicate the applications and provide accurate numbers to the DoS. Thats the reason dates moved smoothly and the prediction models proposed by the experts on this forum were spot on.

With the current inventory nearly depleted, we again encounter muddy waters of unknown demand.. that combined with the economic downturn in 2008/2009.. AND A POSSIBLE BRAIN DRAIN from this forum (the gurus WILL BE greened in the next 1-2 months) we again are left with speculating possible movements in FY 2012.

[Spectator]

To all that commented:

My point is this.

If DOS wait until FY2012 to take in new applications within the law, they would have to wait until May 2012 (possibly April), supposing they announce extra visas from EB1 are available again. Even that would not be enough for a full year's approvals, even if they could all be adjudicated in time, because they only have 81% of the total to play with.

Leaving it that late this year wasn't a concern, because the existing cases were already pre-adjudicated and there were a sufficient number of them.

Any attempt to move the dates forward before then, would violate the 27% per quarter law, since there will be enough older PWMB and Porting cases to consume the 757 cases allowed in the quarter. I don't believe DOS can make any comment about spare EB1 visas until at least April.

If DOS think they can get even reasonably close to exhausting cases in September 2011, DOS can advance the dates in the September VB and claim they didn't think enough demand was going to materialize and they didn't want to waste visas. Doing it in FY2012 makes it a rather obvious violation.

This also has the advantage of giving USCIS the maximum possible time to adjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in May/July to September 2012.

Given the already existing non EB2-IC I-485 backlogs, I think USCIS need as much time as possible. Delaying even a short while into FY2012 jeopardizes the ability of USCIS to adjudicate the cases in a timely fashion ready for the next spillover season.

It may not happen, but I am saying I think there are good reasons why they should.

[ChampU]

I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw

I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw

I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw

I agree that if they decide the dates to stagnate around the Aug 2007 mark, they will have enough cases to process in the first 9 months of FY 2012.
1. When the next spillover season starts, even if we make a conservative estimate of a SOFAD of around 15k, would the CIS be ready to process new I-485 applications from scratch in Q4-2012?
2. What happens if the available inventory of EB2 cases (PWMB+EB3-EB2 Upgrades) runs out before the start of the spillover season in Q2/Q3 of 2012? The 5k PWMB is an estimate and the EB3-EB2 upgrades is not known, therefore a part of the unknown demand. Most of us were wrong in our estimates of porting cases.
3. What if the SOFAD next year is a bonanza (35k+) and the CIS does not have enough cases ready for the DoS? that would lead to wastage of visas (or spillover to EB3, which would open up another can of worms) and with the enhanced accountability, it would not sit well with the Ombudsman.
3. NVC emails: If the DoS follows the approach of stagnating the dates around August 2007, there is noway that the people with PD around April 2008 would be current in FY 2012. In that case, the NVC would not have sent out the emails to those folks.

However, if we consider the model of DoS moving the dates up by 9-12 months in the September bulletin and retrogress in October 2011:
1. It generates a sizeable pipeline for the CIS to pre-adjudicate about 30-40k applications, enough to absorb the biggest of possible Spillovers.
2. Wastage of visas is next to impossible in this model.
3. The DoS will not have to circumvent the 81% rule if there is any fluctuation in demand.
4. Jumping ahead and retrogressing is something that the DoS and USCIS,are pros at.

[bieber]

Q (thanks for multiple posts from u , I'm trying to put my reply in one post)

If they want to accept new applications why would they be conservative and collect from couple of quarters? I know you want the dates to be C than any specific time frame, again they may not make it C but isn't it godd for them to take more and adjudicate in their own sweet time and move dates in controlled manner?

If they move dates to jan 1 2008, they will have enough applications for now and they will be in limbo if fy 2012 sofad is even 1/3rd of fy2011.

EB1 slowing down may be not one year scenario, it's hard to imagine things like this not trending. H1b quota is still taking months to get filled and that was not 1yr event. most likely same thing will happen to EB1 because EB1-C and H1b demand basically comes from same source you know what i mean

I'm thinking they will move dates into 2009 or jan1 2010 and then retogress (I always try to see these things objectively so for sure not because I WANT it )

[zenmaster]

Since so many of you folks are writing up, I want to put up something on record too

My hunch is that they would make it 'C' in september and then retro. That way, they get 4 years + of visibility again.
Another reasoning i have is the political environment we are in right now (lots of talks all around regarding skilled immigration; bills coming up; looked up as bipartisan issue etc etc....)
This is quite similar environment we had in 2007. We all know that chances of some bill passing is like 1 in a decade , but if something comes up, USCIS/DOS need to be ready to face the storm anyway.
Anti-Immis. who oppose all immigrant bills could also influence this... by making it current, all get 485s and shut up about immigration
Third, they have already streamlined 485 filing (all apps filed to TX center etc.. etc..) which helps them.

Ultimately, as all of us know, its just a guesswork.
Good luck to all of you here...
I wish all of you guys who filed 485 already, get GCs soon; and others get a chance to file 485

[qesehmk]

Directionally I agree with both points you make.

1. What is the sustainable date where the retrogression will come back and stop at. I think May 2007. But if somebody says Jun-Aug 2007 I wouldn't have much problem with that.
2. 2011 Oct onwards the visa allocation for EB2I will be paltry 250 per month or so. Yes. But that is really not the point. The point is that come May 2012 there will be SOFAD and in order for DoS / USCIS to ensure that there is enough demand in EB2, they need to take in applications latest by Oct-Nov 2011 to make sure that the SOFAD will apply to those applications. Spec is stating the same thing only in a much more sophisticated manner!!

Q, Assuming the dates move to June/July 2007 in the August bulletin and then X months ahead in the September bulletin and then retrogress in October, the cut off date would be in the June-August 2007 (PD of the PWMB whose case could not be processed in FY 2011) range, right?
From November onwards the date will move @ 250 visas per month until the next spillover season starts..Is that correct?

[imechanix]

Guru's,

Do you have predictions on where EB2IC dates might stagnate after Sep 2011 Bulletin assuming all the preadjucated cases are approved. I did an estimate of EB2 PWMB India/China based on Spec's perm approval data after July 2007 which is as follows:

Equation Used: PWMB=PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.66 and Dependent Factor =2.25

Jan'07 -> 160
Feb'07 -> 290
Mar'07 -> 500
Apr'07 -> 1188
May'07 -> 1495
Jun'07 -> 1818
July'07 -> 2872
Total -> 8323

If this calculation is correct then dates can stagnate as back as Feb or March 07 as the PWMB (+ porting) demand increases significantly after that.

Thanks for the great work.

[qesehmk]

Bieber,

I agree with you. That is where the "Policy" part comes in. Personally I believe there are many good reasons (that I have already talked baout in teh past) why they should make it C keep it there until 31st Oct and then retro back to May-Jun 2007.

Q (thanks for multiple posts from u , I'm trying to put my reply in one post)

If they want to accept new applications why would they be conservative and collect from couple of quarters? I know you want the dates to be C than any specific time frame, again they may not make it C but isn't it godd for them to take more and adjudicate in their own sweet time and move dates in controlled manner?

If they move dates to jan 1 2008, they will have enough applications for now and they will be in limbo if fy 2012 sofad is even 1/3rd of fy2011.

EB1 slowing down may be not one year scenario, it's hard to imagine things like this not trending. H1b quota is still taking months to get filled and that was not 1yr event. most likely same thing will happen to EB1 because EB1-C and H1b demand basically comes from same source you know what i mean

I'm thinking they will move dates into 2009 or jan1 2010 and then retogress (I always try to see these things objectively so for sure not because I WANT it

Since so many of you folks are writing up, I want to put up something on record too

My hunch is that they would make it 'C' in september and then retro. That way, they get 4 years + of visibility again.
Another reasoning i have is the political environment we are in right now (lots of talks all around regarding skilled immigration; bills coming up; looked up as bipartisan issue etc etc....)
This is quite similar environment we had in 2007. We all know that chances of some bill passing is like 1 in a decade , but if something comes up, USCIS/DOS need to be ready to face the storm anyway.
Anti-Immis. who oppose all immigrant bills could also influence this... by making it current, all get 485s and shut up about immigration
Third, they have already streamlined 485 filing (all apps filed to TX center etc.. etc..) which helps them.

Ultimately, as all of us know, its just a guesswork.
Good luck to all of you here...
I wish all of you guys who filed 485 already, get GCs soon; and others get a chance to file 485

I agree and there are good economic reasons why tehy should make it current.

[Spectator]

Guru's,

Do you have predictions on where EB2IC dates might stagnate after Sep 2011 Bulletin assuming all the preadjucated cases are approved. I did an estimate of EB2 PWMB India/China based on Spec's perm approval data after July 2007 which is as follows:

Equation Used: PWMB=PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.66 and Dependent Factor =2.25

Jan'07 -> 160
Feb'07 -> 290
Mar'07 -> 500
Apr'07 -> 1188
May'07 -> 1495
Jun'07 -> 1818
July'07 -> 2872
Total -> 8323

If this calculation is correct then dates can stagnate as back as Feb or March 07 as the PWMB (+ porting) demand increases significantly after that.

Thanks for the great work.

imechanix,

I haven't checked them, but I am sure your calculations are technically correct.

For EB2, the Dependent Factor is 2.1.

Your figures would represent the theoretical absolute top end. I suspect the figure might be nearer 5k for various reasons, but it is only an estimate and it could be anywhere in between.

I would hope the dates might retrogress to a slightly later date than you propose, but I wouldn't argue with your dates either.

[veni001]

imechanix,

I haven't checked them, but I am sure your calculations are technically correct.

For EB2, the Dependent Factor is 2.1.

Your figures would represent the theoretical absolute top end. I suspect the figure might be nearer 5k for various reasons, but it is only an estimate and it could be anywhere in between.

I would hope the dates might retrogress to a slightly later date than you propose, but I wouldn't argue with your dates either.

Guru's,

Do you have predictions on where EB2IC dates might stagnate after Sep 2011 Bulletin assuming all the preadjucated cases are approved. I did an estimate of EB2 PWMB India/China based on Spec's perm approval data after July 2007 which is as follows:

Equation Used: PWMB=PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.66 and Dependent Factor =2.25

Jan'07 -> 160
Feb'07 -> 290
Mar'07 -> 500
Apr'07 -> 1188
May'07 -> 1495
Jun'07 -> 1818
July'07 -> 2872
Total -> 8323

If this calculation is correct then dates can stagnate as back as Feb or March 07 as the PWMB (+ porting) demand increases significantly after that.

Thanks for the great work.

In addition,when doing PERM to 485 projections, i would use 20% towards denials/rejections at i140 stage and duplicate/unused labors.
Also EC2C % should be higher than 0.66.

[bieber]

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)


I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

[veni001]

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)

I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

bieber,
Good, i like your rule of thumb

EB2(I+C) 485 demand in a CY ~= PERM(I+C) approvals in that CY

[TeddyKoochu]

In addition,when doing PERM to 485 projections, i would use 20% towards denials/rejections at i140 stage and duplicate/unused labors.
Also EC2C % should be higher than 0.66.

Veni great catch, I believe this will bring the numbers to the 6K range.

[leo07]

That's probably a formula that I can remember neat.

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)


I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

[Spectator]

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)


I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

bieber,

I tend to do exactly that for some of the later years.

I am still not entirely convinced that the EB2:EB3 ratio was quite as high for 2007.

There remains the prospect that EB3 is severely under-represented in the Inventory and Demand Data because significant numbers are still at LO pending interview.

LO are known for only interviewing cases just ahead of them becoming Current.

Because the EB3-I dates move so slowly and are so far in the past, there could be a lot of cases still to emerge from the LO and it will take a decade or more to make a real estimate for EB3-I. There appear to be as many as 3k cases added to the EB3-I Inventory this year.

The EB3-ROW figures (where the dates are later and move somewhat faster) suggest their total Inventory has increased 45% in this FY. The October starting figure was reported as 40k, but it now calculates back to nearly 59k! (40k initial Inventory + 5k higher in June Inventory + 14k cases approved to the end of May 2011). Most of the increase is accounted for in the period up to the end of 2005.

If the EB3-I Inventory were to double for 2007, the effective ratio would be around 50:50.

It is a bit speculative, but it concerns me enough to mention it.