kd2008 to sangiano:
The PERM case number usually is say for example A-11010-12345 then the middle 5 digits are the filing date in Julian format. So 11010 is basically 10th day of 2011 and so on. In Excel you can use the following: If the Case no. column is C then MID(C2,3,5) for the Case no. in Column in C2 and so on. Say you put this value of 11010 in Column B2, then use DATE(2000+INT(B2/1000),1,MOD(B2,1000)) to change to actual date format and you will get 1/10/11. Could you please run this and figure out the actual number of cases filed in each year?
Thanks!
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Posted by sangiano (2164) 12 hours 52 minutes ago
to kd2008:
Thanks for the simple function to convert the Julian Date.
I had done it already, but by a far more complicated method.
Here's the figures you requested as the Calendar Year that the PERM was received for all Countries.
2010 -- 18,050 -- 25.70%
2009 -- 38,422 -- 54.70%
2008 -- 10,942 -- 15.58%
2007 --- 2,726 -- 3.88%
2006 ------ 84 -- 0.12%
2005 ------ 13 -- 0.02%
Total - 70,237 -- 100.00%
I am not sure they are that useful, since we already knew that there was a lot of backlog reduction.
If we look at the last 4 months of the year, that should give a better idea of what is going to happen going into FY2011.
2010 -- 16,064 -- 74.602%
2009 --- 2,659 -- 12.348%
2008 --- 2,622 -- 12.177%
2007 ----- 176 -- 0.817%
2006 ------ 10 -- 0.046%
2005 ------- 2 -- 0.009%
Total - 21,533 -- 100.00%
As you can see, it is an entirely different picture.
It is ROW that is more important in many ways, so here are the figures for ROW (all except C,I,M & P) for the last 4 months.
2010 -- 5,799 -- 69.56%
2009 -- 1,124 -- 13.48%
2008 -- 1,329 -- 15.94%
2007 ----- 78 -- 0.94%
2006 ------ 5 -- 0.06%
2005 ------ 2 -- 0.02%
Total - 8,337 - 100.00%
and by the Fiscal year that the PERM was received (again based on the period June to September).
FY2010 -- 6,494 -- 77.89%
FY2009 ---- 468 -- 5.61%
FY2008 -- 1,356 -- 16.26%
FY2007 ----- 14 -- 0.17%
FY2006 ------ 4 -- 0.05%
FY2005 ------ 1 -- 0.01%
Total --- 8,337 - 100.00%
As you can see, the vast majority of approvals were coming from applications only received by DOL with the current FY.
Of course figures can be made to say anything.
I am sure that PERM approvals will decline in FY2011, but not by the amount some people are expecting.
As I have calculated it, if the figures from the last 4 months continued into FY2011, even if there were no backlogs to clear from previous FY, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the approval levels seen in FY2010, which would limit the amount of spill across available to EB2-IC.
I hope you find the breakdown useful.
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to sangiano:
To sangiano,
Quote : "As I have calculated it, if the figures from the last 4 months continued into FY2011, even if there were no backlogs to clear from previous FY, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the approval levels seen in FY2010, which would limit the amount of spill across available to EB2-IC. "
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First of all thanks for running the query. I can not understand how you derive at the conclusion that the EB2-ROW is capable of reaching approval levels seen in FY2010.
1. There were only 18050 approvals from 2010. As backlog is cleared I can expect not more than 20-25K approvals in FY2011.
2. It is safe to assume that 50% of the approvals will be for ROW. (12.5 K)
3. Out of these 50%, not more than 20-30% qualify for EB2.. (based on 2009 PERM stat). (4K)
4. Assuming each PERM represent three members...(EB2 ROW should not consume more than 12K Visas.)
5. If I do similar math to the FY2010 last 4 months approvals figures...(Last 4 months approval 8 K, 30% EB2 is 2.5 K, multiply by 3 = 7.5 K)
(Not sure if they were flowed through to FY2011. It is likely that some of them are already taken care of in FY2010 quota)
6. This accounts for 19.5 K EB2 Visas for ROW, leaving 15 K for India & Chiana.
Correct me if I am missing anything here.
Thanks,
dg0320
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Posted by sangiano (2164) 11 hours ago
to dg0320:
I think your calculation will underestimate the amount.
Yes there are 18k approvals from CY2010, but that doesn't represent the total for a fiscal year. It represents only 9 months. Prorated up, that would become 24k. Then there are those approvals as a result of PERMs received at the end of FY2009, but not approved until FY2010.
Rather than looking at the total, I think you should look at the rate at the end of the year, which was 4k / month in the last 4 months and the same when calculated over the last 3 months. That would give you 48k per year.
Figures suggest that ROW (if you include M & P) is 55%
A ratio of 20:80 or 30:70 for EB2:EB3 is unrealistically low IMO.
The historical ratio for I-485s in EB2 is 2.1 members. If older cases Port, this might rise, but 3 might be too high.
My rough calculation would run something like this.
Purely PERM approvals from the FY for ROW at the same rate would be 1,624 / month. There will be some others so let's say 1,750 / month.
That gives approvals in FY2011 of 21,000.
Using a 50:50 ratio for EB2:EB3 gives 10,500 EB2 PERM approvals. At 2.1 I-485 applicants per I-140, that is 22,050 I-485s.
But not all PERMs started in FY2011 will translate to I-485s in FY2011. If we say that only those approved in the first 8 months will convert to I-485 approvals, then that would be 14,700 I-485s.
Then we need to add back PERMs approved in the last 4 months of FY2010 but not translating into I-485 approvals until FY2011.
That figure is around 10,000. I agree it might be slightly less than that.
14,700 + 10,000 = 24,700 which is about what Trackitt data suggests ROW received in FY2010.
Again, ROW means all Countries other than China, India, Mexico and Philippines.
Mexico & Philippines usually consume around 3,000 EB2 visas, so total EB2 visas excluding India and China would be 27,700 from an allocation of 34,434, leaving 6,734 available to EB2 India and China.
Alternatively, you can simply assume that PERM approvals will reduce to 80% of FY2010 levels, which would give 56,000 PERM approvals in FY2011. Then assuming ROW (excl M & P) stay at 44% of approvals, the figures calculate out as slightly higher.
I certainly don't believe that PERM approvals will return to a figure as low as that seen in FY2009, which your figures state.
As I said in my previous post, the figures can be interpreted in many ways. I certainly don't claim mine is any better than anyone else's.
Best of luck with your number crunching efforts.
Originally Posted by mygctracker
