EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

we have an AC21 thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...All-about-AC21 we can use that.

I think there is no guarantee that USCIS will send an acknowledgment after receiving AC21 docs. In fact, there are many instances where the AC21 docs don't even reach one's I485 file. Its somewhat random on whether one will received an acknowledgment from USCIS after submitting the AC21 docs and this shouldn't have any effect on the pending I485 application. If Q and others suggest, I can open another thread and type the contents of the letter (or just type the contents of the letter in this thread itself); its a simple letter saying they received the AC21 related docs and appended it to my pending I485 application.

[imechanix]

imechanix,
You can use 2007 PWMB PERM Table for I+C to calculate 485 demand until July 2007.

Thanks Veni. I did not pay attention to that information.

[nishant2200]

Maybe I am incorrect, but I think EB1, EB2 ROW since are current, can file 140 and 485 concurrently. So in that case, the 485 cannot be approved until the 140 is approved, so in fact, the time taken for 140 approval maybe the reason, why we think it's taking long for 485 to get approved.

[Spectator]

Maybe I am incorrect, but I think EB1, EB2 ROW since are current, can file 140 and 485 concurrently. So in that case, the 485 cannot be approved until the 140 is approved, so in fact, the time taken for 140 approval maybe the reason, why we think it's taking long for 485 to get approved.

nishant,

I am sure that must be true to a certain extent (maybe it the main reason), but it can't be the sole reason.

According to this document http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...t-response.pdf (page 8 of the pdf) it says about the USCIS Inventory :

B. I-485 Inventory Report

.........

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

That means that all cases in the USCIS Inventory already have an approved I-140 and many of them have been pending for some time. They would be in addition to those still within the cycle time for the I-140.

I have to ask - if USCIS can't deal with normal volumes, how are they going to cope with all the extra EB2-IC that will be coming their way shortly? The two Service Centers already had a backlog of 80k I-485 in March 2011.

[nishant2200]

Amazing. Thanks for the helpful response.

Have to say, there is more sense of peace and calm and knowledge gathering and sharing in this forum.

nishant,

I am sure that must be true to a certain extent (maybe it the main reason), but it can't be the sole reason.

According to this document http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...t-response.pdf (page 8 of the pdf) it says about the USCIS Inventory :



That means that all cases in the USCIS Inventory already have an approved I-140 and many of them have been pending for some time. They would be in addition to those still within the cycle time for the I-140.

I have to ask - if USCIS can't deal with normal volumes, how are they going to cope with all the extra EB2-IC that will be coming their way shortly? The two Service Centers already had a backlog of 80k I-485 in March 2011.

[cbpds1]

Amazing. Thanks for the helpful response.

Have to say, there is more sense of peace and calm and knowledge gathering and sharing in this forum.

u mean to say after the "quarter" fiasco

[nishant2200]

u mean to say after the "quarter" fiasco

you got it man

[veni001]

Veni, we probably would. But consider this fact.

Per trackitt data, 576 cases were filed in EB1 and EB2ROW in this FY. Of which 322 are still pending.

That is 56% pending.

Of the ones approved 254, 126 i.e. 50% are post Dec 2010. So yes there are cases frm 2011 FY that are approved and there will be such cases. But the overwhelming statistics is that 56% of 2011 demand in EB1 and EB2 ROW will not be processed this year (assuming that trend holds.) We will see!

Q,
Let's hope for the best for FY 2011, but processing delay(EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) is going to hurt EB2I&C movement in the long run.

Not sure what's cooking behind the doors with DOS/USCIS, no demand data for July 2011, no FY 2011 prediction in July VB and also no update on dashboard for April 2011 processing volumes & trends yet!

[pch053]

As of now, for EB2-I I see the following approvals in trackitt:
May 2011: 138 (only 28 of these approvals are after 15th May)
June 2011: 129 (as of now)
In the month of May, most of the approvals were in the first half of the month and there were only 28 approvals after 15th May. If this trend follows in June too, then we won't have that many more approvals (maybe another 40 - 50 or so in trackitt) for the rest of the month. So, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though the movement in PDs was quite different for the months of May and June (7 weeks vs. 19 weeks), the # of trackitt approvals during these two months is not significantly different. Also, is there a thumb rule on what fraction of overall EB2I is represented inside trackitt (I have seen estimates ranging from 5 - 7%)? If so, it might give us an idea on the # of applicants in the overall EB2I pool that are getting their I485 approvals.

[qesehmk]

bieber I didn't understand what you are asking. In terms of how next FY (i..e 2012) will look like - the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. There is 20% reduction in EB2ROW demand yes. So, next year all that unprocessed 2011 demand is going to hit the pipeline and 2012 will be bad for EB2IC. How bad? We will know after Oct 2011 inventory is published. But get this ... at that point most of the backlog will be cleared and hopefully USCIS will have taken in new apps. These people will at least be happy that they have an EAD to work with. While not ideal ... that is better than waiting to file 485.

Q, thanks, that's ok. Just wondered if fy2011 using 'supposedly' fy2012 spill over.
Do you agree, as long as we don't see huge surge in EB1 demand next year should be atleast better than fy2010

Leo, a lot of those 35K are already processed. Secondly I wouldn't doubt USCIS's ability to process 35K in two months when almost all of them are preadjudicated. The visa allocation will proceed mostly by PD. That's what the law says.

Bottomline I do not believe for a second that any visa will be wasted.

Folks,
Let us say DOS moves the dates to August 1 2007 and brings the EB2 inventory to 35K and there are 35K visas available.
Obviously, CIS cannot go through all these 35k in 2 months.

In this scenario:
a. Would CIS be able to allot a visa to each of these applications first and then process the applications at their own speed? ( since denial rate is 2%, max wastage would be 2% in this case.)
b. Would CIS allot visas at random among all documentarily qualified folks across the EB board.?
c. What would happen to the 35K EB2 inventory built in the case of (b)--they would sit and wait for Visa number for another year?

I know more or less the answer is (b) & (c), but want all your opinions and thoughts

This aint going to happen before second week of July. There is nothing meaningful he is going to give to us.

Q, Can you ask your source to check with VO on the cutoff dates for August and September? Thanks a lot.

A bit difficult to be honest w you. The reason being, their processing times for 485 are stuck at the ones filed in Q4 2010. But USCIS is strange sometimes and some applications will scrape by. I just wouldn't like to say that generally that's what will happen.

for this year, is there a possibility that PWMB cases that are filed during early July'11 might get approved as there will be ~3 months time for approval prior to Sep 30.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

That's for sure. The better the 2011 will be the worse 2012 will be from EB2IC perspective.

Q,
Let's hope for the best for FY 2011, but processing delay(EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) is going to hurt EB2I&C movement in the long run.

[vishnu]

Q - you mentioned: the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. That could be the case for EB2 row but for EB1, didn't CO say that demand is extremely low - that would mean that the number of applications filed itself is lower, now that processing delays. Or did I understand that incorrectly.

[leo07]

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.

My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Not sure, if I framed my question clearly

Leo, a lot of those 35K are already processed. Secondly I wouldn't doubt USCIS's ability to process 35K in two months when almost all of them are preadjudicated. The visa allocation will proceed mostly by PD. That's what the law says.

Bottomline I do not believe for a second that any visa will be wasted.


.

[neospeed]

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.

My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Not sure, if I framed my question clearly

I dont think they will be able to process any new applications. They are some preadjucated cases July,Aug 2007, they probably clear those.

[pch053]

we have an AC21 thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...All-about-AC21 we can use that.

Thanks; I have a post in the above thread with the contents of the AC21 acknowledgement letter that I received from USCIS a while back.

[leo07]

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

I dont think they will be able to process any new applications. They are some preadjucated cases July,Aug 2007, they probably clear those.

[Spectator]

As of now, for EB2-I I see the following approvals in trackitt:
May 2011: 138 (only 28 of these approvals are after 15th May)
June 2011: 129 (as of now)
In the month of May, most of the approvals were in the first half of the month and there were only 28 approvals after 15th May. If this trend follows in June too, then we won't have that many more approvals (maybe another 40 - 50 or so in trackitt) for the rest of the month. So, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though the movement in PDs was quite different for the months of May and June (7 weeks vs. 19 weeks), the # of trackitt approvals during these two months is not significantly different. Also, is there a thumb rule on what fraction of overall EB2I is represented inside trackitt (I have seen estimates ranging from 5 - 7%)? If so, it might give us an idea on the # of applicants in the overall EB2I pool that are getting their I485 approvals.

That information is already available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 and is updated at least daily. It is for Primary applicants only and is adjusted for Porting cases, different chargeability etc.

For comparison, the approval profile for May, versus the one in June to date is.

MAY
Date - 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 -- 10 -- 11 -- 12 -- 13 -- 14 -- 15 -- 16 -- 17 -- 18 -- 19 -- 20 -- 21 -- 22 -- 23 -- 24 -- 25 -- 26 -- 27 -- 28 -- 29 -- 30 --31
No. -- 0 - 15 - 23 - 19 - 14 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 - 14 --- 8 --- 9 --- 7 --- 8 --- 4 --- 2 --- 3 --- 3 ---3 --- 2 --- 2 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 2 --- 0 --- 6 --- 6 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 5
Total - 161

JUNE
Date - 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 -- 10 -- 11 -- 12 -- 13 -- 14 -- 15 -- 16 -- 17 -- 18 -- 19 -- 20 -- 21 -- 22 -- 23 -- 24 -- 25 -- 26 -- 27 -- 28 -- 29 -- 30
No. -- 6 - 20 - 23 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 - 19 - 18 - 11 --- 5 --- 1 --- 0 --- 5 --- 3
Total - 125

The May profile suggests USCIS were able to allocate the available numbers fairly quickly. Since there are more available in June, perhaps the tail won't be so long.

[veni001]

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

Leo07,
It's not just EB2I&C demand for the next two months, we have to realize the fact that there are ~20k (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) pending, of which ~15k is from FY 2010 and before.
Since 485 processing dates are almost at the end of 2010, the number of approvable applications out of the 15k in the next two months is key!

[pch053]

That information is already available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 and is updated at least daily. It is for Primary applicants only and is adjusted for Porting cases, different chargeability etc.

The May profile suggests USCIS were able to allocate the available numbers fairly quickly. Since there are more available in June, perhaps the tail won't be so long.

Thanks Spec for the link; it is very informative. Sorry, I missed it before I posted the above!

[Spectator]

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

The applications can be processed through to pre-adjudication in time for the next spillover season, giving a maximum of 9 months to do so.

USCIS do not request a visa from DOS for a case until it is adjudicated - until then, they don't know if it is approvable.

In any case, if such a mechanism existed, they would have to use it for the backlog of EB1/EB2-ROW cases that are already Current, reducing SOFAD - why only the new EB2-IC cases?

[qesehmk]

vishnu that is visa demand CO talked about. it is completely different from 485 new receipts in 2011 which is what we are talking about.

Q - you mentioned: the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. That could be the case for EB2 row but for EB1, didn't CO say that demand is extremely low - that would mean that the number of applications filed itself is lower, now that processing delays. Or did I understand that incorrectly.

Leo, yes strict FIFO is never possible for a lot legitimate reasons. Any applications filed in Jul-Sep have a very less chance of going through regardless they are EB1-5 or which country of chargeability. I do not believe they will allocate visas to them simply because they need to complete all processing before a visa could be requested.

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.
My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Thanks PCH

Thanks; I have a post in the above thread with the contents of the AC21 acknowledgement letter that I received from USCIS a while back.

[leo07]

I do understand that there are pending applications that will consume some of these visas. If CIS is moving these dates forward, they are moving with a plan.(or without?).

I'm trying to understand what they will do( apart from retrogressing the dates).

Leo07,
It's not just EB2I&C demand for the next two months, we have to realize the fact that there are ~20k (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) pending, of which ~15k is from FY 2010 and before.
Since 485 processing dates are almost at the end of 2010, the number of approvable applications out of the 15k in the next two months is key!

[leo07]

Thanks Q!

I think the same,like I said before I want more people to say it, as m mind hates to believe the fact that apps sit there pre-adjudicated, until next festive season

vishnu that is visa demand CO talked about. it is completely different from 485 new receipts in 2011 which is what we are talking about.


Leo, yes strict FIFO is never possible for a lot legitimate reasons. Any applications filed in Jul-Sep have a very less chance of going through regardless they are EB1-5 or which country of chargeability. I do not believe they will allocate visas to them simply because they need to complete all processing before a visa could be requested.


Thanks PCH

[veni001]

I do understand that there are pending applications that will consume some of these visas. If CIS is moving these dates forward, they are moving with a plan.(or without?).

I'm trying to understand what they will do( apart from retrogressing the dates).

Thanks Q!

I think the same,like I said before I want more people to say it, as m mind hates to believe the fact that apps sit there pre-adjudicated, until next festive season

leo07,
If DOS/USCIS move dates similar to what we have been predicting(into Q1 2008) in the next two VB, then they have no option but retrogress dates back to where they will have 1,000 -1,500 before PD in Oct2011 VB for EB2I.
As we know porting is a continuous process, USCIS can utilize 2,800 quota in the first two quarters of FY 2012 (similar to what they did this year) to approve cases pending+porting before OCT VB PD.

If EB1 continue similar trending next year then they can repeat FY 2011 PD progression in FY 2012, starting Q3, if not they can pre-adjudicate cases and wait for SOFAD, if any, to kick in Q4 2012.

[natvyas]

From what I have understood from the different posts it that there are visas available and they are lot more applications available, however owing to the processing time the applications are not being tied to a visa. In this scenario what happens to those visas that are not tied to an application and are sitting out there.