EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Q,

Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?

Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?

gcforeve,
You might have noticed from our previous posts by now! We wanted to keep predictions/estimates on the conservative side.

We all have to agree that economy played big role when comes to SOFAD in the last couple of years ( less EB1, EB2ROW...etc), which may not be true in the coming years. If economy goes further south we may see more SOFAD,if not it may not be that much. So there are several variables that could impact our predictions here but, based on data on hand Rule of 5 is a good estimate for EB2I&C.

[qesehmk]

May 2007 is sustainable as per our calculations. I could be wrong by +2 months. But I almost guarantee 100% that the dates will retrogress if they move anywhere around Q4 2007 and beyond. My guess would be that the dates will settle around a month where backlog as of Oct 2007 will be around 1000-1500.

Teddy may have slightly different view point. And that's fine because all of us are really guessing - only in a bit intelligent manner.

Q

I am a little surprised with the post.I hope you mean if the dates move very quickly in the next two bulletins to beyond May 2007 then retrogression is possible for couple of months.Though would not the start of the next Fiscal year start movement in the dates again.I thought from Teddy's post buried a few pages back talking about movement beyond Aug bulletin that USCIS might decide to an inventory buildup for the future and that Q3 2012 might give some good news with folks with PD post May/June 2007.

Could you please clarify what kind of retrogression you would be expecting and the possible timeline till which retrogression might apply.

Yes agree. Typically 5 yrs is a rule of thumb.Some people get lucky and get it in 2 years. Some wait till 10 years. Whether they will repeat July 2007? My guess is they should .... just to make sure they don't lose all this talent. If you were an economist or a policy maker... why would you want to lose hundreds of thousands of people who are providing competitive edge to the economy? Trust me .... there are very very pragmatic people up there who decide these kind of policies and these date movements are not as arbitrary as people think.

Q,

Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?

Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?

If I were to bet I would bet with very high odds that you are already preadjudicated. For the benefit of everybody who filed in Jul 2007, I think the same.

Thanks Q, veni, Spec and all for your response. Yes, I forgot to provide more aspects about my situation. My 485 is filed during the 2007 dream time (AKA fiasco). I have already used AC21 to switch job in 2009 and my current status is AOS (I am on EAD). My 6 years on H1B completed way back in 2008.

As far as preadjudicated or not, is there a way to understand that. My 485 application has a LUD on 08/2010. I do not have any idea why it was touched during that time. But not sure if any action has been done on it. I had sent my Ac21 support letter, provided by current employer, through my lawyer in 2009. But my 485 did not show any LUD then. And then suddenly one fine day in August 2010, I saw the LUD changed.

[gcforever]

Well, my first PERM was denied after 2 years, so I understand luck factor.

Why can't they just give EAD after I-140 and give GC when PD becomes current. In employment category, anyway people are already working and paying taxes. EAD will give them sense of stability, flexibilty in changing jobs etc. It's good quick relief.

May 2007 is sustainable as per our calculations. I could be wrong by +2 months. But I almost guarantee 100% that the dates will retrogress if they move anywhere around Q4 2007 and beyond. My guess would be that the dates will settle around a month where backlog as of Oct 2007 will be around 1000-1500.

Teddy may have slightly different view point. And that's fine because all of us are really guessing - only in a bit intelligent manner.



Yes agree. Typically 5 yrs is a rule of thumb.Some people get lucky and get it in 2 years. Some wait till 10 years. Whether they will repeat July 2007? My guess is they should .... just to make sure they don't lose all this talent. If you were an economist or a policy maker... why would you want to lose hundreds of thousands of people who are providing competitive edge to the economy? Trust me .... there are very very pragmatic people up there who decide these kind of policies and these date movements are not as arbitrary as people think.




If I were to bet I would bet with very high odds that you are already preadjudicated. For the benefit of everybody who filed in Jul 2007, I think the same.

[pch053]

BC affidavit is required only for applicant who don't have BC.

[pch053]

This is a slightly off topic question and more for my knowledge. I have seen in various posts in trackitt and other places where people ask at least how long one should work for the same employer after GC has been approved, i.e what will be a "safe" time to stick with the employer before moving on to a probably better job opportunity. I have heard varying answers ranging from one can move to a different job whenever s/he wants after getting green card to one should at least work for a 6 months to a year with the GC sponsoring employer (or the employer during the time of GC approval). The caveat for not following the 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is one might face consequences during citizenship interview (5 years down the line) or renewing green card (10 years down the line). Does anyone have any input or first hand experience on this issue?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

I would imagine that with AC21 that thing has gone out of the window. Others please chime in if you have insights. Its a good question.

This is a slightly off topic question and more for my knowledge. I have seen in various posts in trackitt and other places where people ask at least how long one should work for the same employer after GC has been approved, i.e what will be a "safe" time to stick with the employer before moving on to a probably better job opportunity. I have heard varying answers ranging from one can move to a different job whenever s/he wants after getting green card to one should at least work for a 6 months to a year with the GC sponsoring employer (or the employer during the time of GC approval). The caveat for not following the 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is one might face consequences during citizenship interview (5 years down the line) or renewing green card (10 years down the line). Does anyone have any input or first hand experience on this issue?

Thanks!

[kd2008]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

[qesehmk]

Agree w everything .... except "Laws be damned". Laws are followed but with an interpretation that suits the policy. And that's how it should be.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

[veni001]

This is a slightly off topic question and more for my knowledge. I have seen in various posts in trackitt and other places where people ask at least how long one should work for the same employer after GC has been approved, i.e what will be a "safe" time to stick with the employer before moving on to a probably better job opportunity. I have heard varying answers ranging from one can move to a different job whenever s/he wants after getting green card to one should at least work for a 6 months to a year with the GC sponsoring employer (or the employer during the time of GC approval). The caveat for not following the 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is one might face consequences during citizenship interview (5 years down the line) or renewing green card (10 years down the line). Does anyone have any input or first hand experience on this issue?

Thanks!

I would imagine that with AC21 that thing has gone out of the window. Others please chime in if you have insights. Its a good question.

AC21 gave portability and other provisions while AOS is pending, unless otherwise sponsoring employer can not offer the job right after GC approval, following 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is the best practice if one want to change employer after GC.

[qesehmk]

The reason I said what i said is .... if somebody can change employment based on same or similar philosophy then there is nothing sacrosanct about when that philosophy could be applied. On the contrary the law has ALWAYS been mute about how long a person should work for teh sponsor? So it could be technically one day and the law is helpless. I do not know instances or examples of people being stripped of GC because of change of job or people having problems with citizenship. If others do please share.

AC21 gave portability and other provisions while AOS is pending, unless otherwise sponsoring employer can not offer the job right after GC approval, following 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is the best practice if one want to change employer after GC.

[formailer]

Hi any comments on the priority dates for EB2. EB2-I is showing was Mar-07 ? any comments

[nayekal]

To file I485, do we need to submit the offer with current job description or is it going to be with the job that we are in at the time of filing I140.

[veni001]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

kd2008,
I would agree to some extent, but how EB1 & EB2ROW demand change coming next year will be the key.

[veni001]

To file I485, do we need to submit the offer with current job description or is it going to be with the job that we are in at the time of filing I140.

nayekal,
As long as the change in current job description with the job description filed with original i140 is less than 50% you should be Okay. If the change in job description is more then 50% and/or change in job location then one need to start all over again!

[nayekal]

nayekal,
As long as the change in current job description with the job description filed with original i140 is less than 50% you should be Okay. If the change in job description is more then 50% and/or change in job location then one need to start all over again!

Thanks Veni.

[veni001]

Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C

[neospeed]

Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C

So this adds 4054 (eb2:eb3 = 50:50) additional visa numbers to cover until the end of July 2007 eb2?

[Spectator]

Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C

Veni,

I think we've been here before. I pretty much agree with your bottom line totals, but my monthly breakdown is different.

- PD -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 --- Total ---- %
Jan-07 ---- 58 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 ----- 108 --- 0.62%
Feb-07 --- 125 ------ 42 ------ 22 ------- 5 ------- 1 ----- 195 --- 1.12%
Mar-07 --- 259 ------ 55 ------ 18 ------- 4 ------- 1 ----- 337 --- 1.93%
Apr-07 --- 702 ------ 71 ------ 24 ------- 3 ------- 0 ----- 800 --- 4.58%
May-07 --- 804 ----- 141 ------ 49 ------ 11 ------- 2 --- 1,007 --- 5.76%
Jun-07 --- 838 ----- 303 ------ 68 ------ 13 ------- 2 --- 1,224 --- 7.00%
Jul-07 - 1,206 ----- 523 ----- 176 ------ 26 ------- 3 --- 1,934 -- 11.06%
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ----- 251 ------ 85 ------- 7 --- 2,282 -- 13.05%
Sep-07 --- 100 --- 1,781 ----- 297 ----- 109 ------- 6 --- 2,293 -- 13.11%
Oct-07 ----- 0 --- 2,187 ----- 148 ----- 286 ------- 5 --- 2,626 -- 15.02%
Nov-07 ----- 0 --- 2,016 ------ 35 ----- 376 ------- 6 --- 2,433 -- 13.91%
Dec-07 ----- 0 --- 1,914 ------ 36 ----- 284 ------ 12 --- 2,246 -- 12.85%
Total -- 4,842 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------ 48 -- 17,485 - 100.00%

I've checked my data and can't find an error in the month determination.

In your table, you have PD of Oct-Dec 2007 Certified in FY2007. That is not possible, because FY2007 finished on September 30, 2007. The earliest they can have been Certified is FY2008.

[veni001]

So this adds 4054 (eb2:eb3 = 50:50) additional visa numbers to cover until the end of July 2007 eb2?

Based on Spec's numbers we are looking at about 5.6 k I&C PERM approvals until July 2007, also couple of hundreds from FY 2006. I would take 70:30 (or at least 65:35) for EB2:EB3 split, and 15-20% denial rate at i140. This will generate about 6k PWMB until July 2007.

Veni,

I think we've been here before. I pretty much agree with your bottom line totals, but my monthly breakdown is different.

- PD -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 --- Total ---- %
Jan-07 ---- 58 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 ----- 108 --- 0.62%
Feb-07 --- 125 ------ 42 ------ 22 ------- 5 ------- 1 ----- 195 --- 1.12%
Mar-07 --- 259 ------ 55 ------ 18 ------- 4 ------- 1 ----- 337 --- 1.93%
Apr-07 --- 702 ------ 71 ------ 24 ------- 3 ------- 0 ----- 800 --- 4.58%
May-07 --- 804 ----- 141 ------ 49 ------ 11 ------- 2 --- 1,007 --- 5.76%
Jun-07 --- 838 ----- 303 ------ 68 ------ 13 ------- 2 --- 1,224 --- 7.00%
Jul-07 - 1,206 ----- 523 ----- 176 ------ 26 ------- 3 --- 1,934 -- 11.06%
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ----- 251 ------ 85 ------- 7 --- 2,282 -- 13.05%
Sep-07 --- 100 --- 1,781 ----- 297 ----- 109 ------- 6 --- 2,293 -- 13.11%
Oct-07 ----- 0 --- 2,187 ----- 148 ----- 286 ------- 5 --- 2,626 -- 15.02%
Nov-07 ----- 0 --- 2,016 ------ 35 ----- 376 ------- 6 --- 2,433 -- 13.91%
Dec-07 ----- 0 --- 1,914 ------ 36 ----- 284 ------ 12 --- 2,246 -- 12.85%
Total -- 4,842 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------ 48 -- 17,485 - 100.00%

I've checked my data and can't find an error in the month determination.

In your table, you have PD of Oct-Dec 2007 Certified in FY2007. That is not possible, because FY2007 finished on September 30, 2007. The earliest they can have been Certified is FY2008.

Spec,
To be honest i did not checked my monthly breakdowns after our previous discussion, but looks like we are close. Since lot of people are asking for FY2007 PWMB labor information i posted my table. Could you or Q post your table under FACTS AND DATA section.

[Spectator]

Based on Spec's numbers we are looking at about 5.6 k I&C PERM approvals until July 2007, also couple of hundreds from FY 2006. I would take 70:30 (or at least 65:35) for EB2:EB3 split, and 15-20% denial rate at i140. This will generate about 6k PWMB until July 2007.



Spec,
To be honest i did not checked my monthly breakdowns after our previous discussion, but looks like we are close. Since lot of people are asking for FY2007 PWMB labor information i posted my table. Could you or Q post your table under FACTS AND DATA section.

Sure. Consider it done.

[veni001]

Sure. Consider it done.

Spec,
As usual, good job.
Thank you

[nishant2200]

The wait begins once more. July 8th where art thou.

Living month to month. When can I say, "mein azad hoon"

Feel like short poem today

Mukti
----------

thak gaye hum, bhagte bhagte,
haar gaye hum, sochte sochte

lakshya kya hai, ummid kyon hai,
rasta pukarta hai, yeh pukar kyon hai

[veni001]

The wait begins once more. July 8th where art thou.

Living month to month. When can I say, "mein azad hoon"

Feel like short poem today

Mukti
----------

thak gaye hum, bhagte bhagte,
haar gaye hum, sochte sochte

lakshya kya hai, ummid kyon hai,
rasta pukarta hai, yeh pukar kyon hai

Not too far from now!

[neospeed]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

What does this mean CIS still processing first and second quater applications?. Does it mean they will be not able to process q3 and q4 applications on time, we will have more spillover?

[pch053]

If they are processing I485 cases that were filed late 2010, then it means that many of the pending I485 cases in EB2-ROW and EB1 category (almost 20K) as seen in the June I485 pending inventory might not be approved this year. Does this mean more EB2-I/C approvals this year? I think if there are 36K - 37K spillovers (this is probably the max expected number), it will clear the backlog up to July - Aug'07, though the more realistic estimate is that there will be sufficient spillovers to clear up to May'07, right?