Personally, I have a lot of time for whoever runs that blog.Originally Posted by soggadu
They also say the dates might not move, so they are just reiterating that DOS may have choices, but no-one can predict what will happen.
I don't think that differs from anyone's view here. Individually, everyone might have their own personal opinion, but beyond that it is guessing.
We'll only know when the September VB is released.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec
what's your take on setting up Dec2007 or Q1 2008 or Aug1/Oct1 2008 Date?
If CIS wants to build inventory, it's better for them to collect more than taking a few every year. I'm thinking 'extrapolating their logic of strict movement while inventory is known and applying the same logic for building pipeline is not apt'
having said that I know they can do anything and just may leave the date in 2007 once they see PWMB and will be in a situation to make it C will be their only option left in Q3 fy 2012.
Last edited by bieber; 06-10-2011 at 02:19 PM.
Q and others, whoever is in contact with the source with CO. Do we have any info from CO how is the trend going forward with AUG and SEP VB?.
happy, happier, happiest ?
Well, thats because all I see here is good 'team-play'. Moreover, if you have a team like this, you don't need someone to manage it (beauty of startups - where building a team does not imply you manage it)!!on a lighter note, why would you not consider working for them?
BTW, I was not referring to just the QVST quartet, you missed my "etc" which includes many others like you that contribute!!! Keep up the good work.....
That person, whoever is posting the EBI&C prediction on that blogspot, is also using the word "PWMBs". Is that a standard abbreviation in EB2 forums or is this person using the data on this thread and forgetting to quote the source?
Once the date moves past July 2007, will there be a significant EB3-EB2 porting of late 2007 and 2008 EB3 PD's? Or it will be negated by the fact that actual EB3 filings are low post summer of '07, just curious about that variable,
Please take a look at this poll and draw your conclusions:
http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455
PWMB, SOFAD, ROWMP and much more is our own lingo (and actually even the concepts at times) that now many people use it.
Its possible that the guy is using our forum ... but that's ok. Let good thoughts come from all directions and go to all directions.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Total Spill over expected this year = 32k
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: 9k ?
Sep VB: 2K ?
PWMB will generate some demand for next year with this approach ,any feedback guys?
I think you invented a whole new language around the calculations.
I see all those terms used very generically these days, even though they were first coined by you (presumably in the original IV thread).
I think they probably do look at this forum a lot, because some of the modifications have taken place just after they were discussed here (some of the PERM analysis discussions in particular). They should cite the source, but that doesn't always happen. Their tool and calculations are a lot better because of it, so I see that as a positive contribution.
The guy seems pretty knowledgeable and answers everybody's questions.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Hasn't there been some spillover (~3K) already used up by the May bulletin when the PDs moved by ~2 months. The numbers might look like below and the big unknowns are the next two months. My hunch (following last year's trend) is that most of the movement will be in Aug, though dates might move a lot (and then retrogress) if they decide to take in more application during Sep.
Total Spill over expected this year = 30K - 35K?
May VB: 3K released
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: ??
Sep VB: ??
I think May was regular cap?
The regular cap is 2800 visas and most of it might have been consumed prior to May through EB3->EB2 porting and any old pending cases. If it was from regular cap, I would have expected the dates to have moved even earlier.
CO explained in the notes for the May 2011 VB that EB2-I had already used its annual limit and was now using spillover visas per Section 202(a)(5).
The latest that EB2-I was using the regular cap was in April 2011.For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
If another 12k come through the existing inventory would be exhausted. That would make the SOFAD to 36k which is a lot closer to the high limit of the anticipated SOFAD (37k)..
Hope to undo all my education and start to spell September with a "C"...
Hi,
I am new user to the thread. I have been following this thread for quite sometime now. It won't be an exagarration to say that this is the only forum which does realistic data analysis in relation with visa number availibility, keeping aside all the other unwanted and unnecessary stuffs. I have stopped going to all the other forums once I found this forum as this forum maintains more healthy and to the point discussion. Also we have most extraordinary data crunchers and analyzers here. kudos to Q, Spec, veni, Biber all all the significant contributors.
I have one question for you wise ones. I PD is 02/26/07, which is current as per the latest visa bulletin. I had started job hunt couple of months back. Now I have two offer letters, both from two very respected Fortune 500 organizations, in my hand with joining date of July first week. I did not know that my PD was about to be current, which is why I had looked for the job switch in the first place. Now obviously I long for GC more than this opportunity and would let this offerlttters pass. But I read in this thread that after September DOS is going to retrogress the date back. My question is what is the possibility that it would retrogress to a date prior to 02/26/07?
I am just trying to avoid a case where I leave these jobs and ended up in a situation where my PD is not current anymore, few months down the line.
Thanking you in advance.
I am in a somewhat similar situation with my PD being July'07 which might be current in the Aug or Sep bulletin. I am thinking of whether to take a job offer where I am supposed to start the new job sometime during Aug (Sep latest). In my case, I have already used AC21 provision once (I forwarded the docs to USCIS then), so my original petitioner is my ex-employer and I have no issues like employer revoking I140, etc. As of now, I like the job a lot and I am inclined towards taking the new offer but haven't reached a final decision yet.
In your scenario, I don't see an issue if you join your new job during 1st week of July. Not sure, you will be working on EAD or H1Br, but if you have all your documents in place you can switch jobs assuming your new job has similar job duties as the one mentioned in your Labor. It is up to you whether you want to proactively submit AC21 docs or want to wait for USCIS to issue a RFE (if any).
I will look forward to hear others input on this! At the end of the day, every person will have his/her own viewpoint and it boils down to their own decision.
GCPagla,
It is not entirely clear whether you already have an I-485 pending, whether AC21 portability has been achieved, or are waiting to file an I-485.
To answer your question, personally, I see no prospect of retrogression to a date before your PD of 02/26/07.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
At current pace the chances of retrogressing to Feb 2007 is very minimal or none. If you have already applied for AOS and your i485 is pre-adjudicated then you should expect approval by mid July!
First I agree w Spec in terms of retro. I will go one step ahead and say .... any date movement upto May 2007 is sustainable. Beyond that the chances that dates will retrogress start increasing.
As per job "offer" - I think an offer works for USCIS. So either it's current job or a job offer. However it is still advisable to talk to a lawyer since I do not know if a gap between GC approved date and Job Start Date is ok? And if so ... how much gap is ok.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I do agree its better to consult a good lawyer for the "gap" between the start date of the job and the approved date of GC. Just from a logical standpoint, I feel that if the gap is of the order of weeks to a month, it will be just fine as GC is related to a future job offer and one can need some leeway (say a few weeks) to start the job after receiving the Green Card. However, if the gap is longer (say > 3 months) then it will probably raise questions. But, again these are just my thoughts and I absolutely have no clue about the gap of employment between GC approval date and date of starting the new job. In case, I decide to switch jobs, I will surely check with the company's lawyer on this.
Q
I am a little surprised with the post.I hope you mean if the dates move very quickly in the next two bulletins to beyond May 2007 then retrogression is possible for couple of months.Though would not the start of the next Fiscal year start movement in the dates again.I thought from Teddy's post buried a few pages back talking about movement beyond Aug bulletin that USCIS might decide to an inventory buildup for the future and that Q3 2012 might give some good news with folks with PD post May/June 2007.
Could you please clarify what kind of retrogression you would be expecting and the possible timeline till which retrogression might apply.
Q,
Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?
Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?
Thanks Q, veni, Spec and all for your response. Yes, I forgot to provide more aspects about my situation. My 485 is filed during the 2007 dream time (AKA fiasco). I have already used AC21 to switch job in 2009 and my current status is AOS (I am on EAD). My 6 years on H1B completed way back in 2008.
As far as preadjudicated or not, is there a way to understand that. My 485 application has a LUD on 08/2010. I do not have any idea why it was touched during that time. But not sure if any action has been done on it. I had sent my Ac21 support letter, provided by current employer, through my lawyer in 2009. But my 485 did not show any LUD then. And then suddenly one fine day in August 2010, I saw the LUD changed.
Technically you are only few weeks awy from GC approval, If i am in your situation i would for the approval. Good Luck!
There are currently 11 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 11 guests)
Posting Permissions
