EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[mr00us]

34K i140 downgraded from Eb2-EB3(includes 2011/2012/2013/2014) from Oct-Dec 2020. In your calculation downgrades comes to 34k or less...

Actually I have way too much than 34K for 2009-2014. If it makes any sense, anything down-ported after 2011 won't make much difference for FY2021, which is why I have split the down-port for 2011 in 3 sections (20, 25 and 30%). And these are just guesses. If you have actual data of down-porting by the year, please let me know and I can finetune my calculations.

As such these are things to make me feel better. At the end of the day, USCIS may waste a lot of these numbers and we will be held holding the bag anyways. :-)

[1312011_eb2I]

Hmm. Sisk is more about FB and DV. I think RandN do good job when it comes to EB , he does YouTubeing multiple times in a week to keep us updated.

[Djidondon]

Hi Gurus

Could anyone of you please direct me to the rabbit hole on how to predict spillovers for EB category ( EB3i or EB2i ) for fy2022

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.

USCIS not issuing EAD is just a sign that they like to just take our money and not give timely service in return. They should have been named US Citizenship and Immigration Blackhole.

[LeoAugust]

Actually I have way too much than 34K for 2009-2014. If it makes any sense, anything down-ported after 2011 won't make much difference for FY2021, which is why I have split the down-port for 2011 in 3 sections (20, 25 and 30%). And these are just guesses. If you have actual data of down-porting by the year, please let me know and I can finetune my calculations.

As such these are things to make me feel better. At the end of the day, USCIS may waste a lot of these numbers and we will be held holding the bag anyways. :-)

Year wise we don't have. But total downgrade we were tracking from the feed. And it comes around 34K.

[LeoAugust]

Hi Gurus, One query... For Bio reuse for 765, will the FP be taken later during EAD renewal or when the primary becomes current, they will taken the final FP for 485?
Thanks

[rabp77]

Hi Gurus, One query... For Bio reuse for 765, will the FP be taken later during EAD renewal or when the primary becomes current, they will taken the final FP for 485?
Thanks

USCIS assumes finger print validity to be 15 months for any background checks (https://www.uscis.gov/adoption/suita...kground-checks). I did not have to redo fingerprints during EAD extension. But i dont have much data on this, so there may be a chance USCIS could request a fingerprint a second time for EAD extensions, but i have not seen this happen in the limited data i have for this.

[vsivarama]

The public charge rule has been stopped by a Chicago judge. Hope it stays that way. The i944 forms filed by us are now useless. Technically this is should speed up the processing for USCIS while adjudicating i485. Hope the interviews remain sidelined as well.

[LeoAugust]

USCIS assumes finger print validity to be 15 months for any background checks (https://www.uscis.gov/adoption/suita...kground-checks). I did not have to redo fingerprints during EAD extension. But i dont have much data on this, so there may be a chance USCIS could request a fingerprint a second time for EAD extensions, but i have not seen this happen in the limited data i have for this.

Thanks. In case of my friends who have EAD, they never go for FP for their EAD extension. But some of them when current going for FP for 485. That's the understanding I am getting and for 765, I dont this FP is required. when they are reusing FP it seems for EAD/AP it is not required.

[calking1975]

Hi experts,
Need your advice, I am following this website for a long time.
Here is my situation.
My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2-I), I survived few layoffs and changed 3 employers in last 13 years, still no end to GC journey.
We filed I-485, EAD/AP on 10/20/2020, my I-1485 application is accepted with FP fee received date 11/20/2020.
My spouse and kid's applications rejected, due to missing information, refiled for family on 12/22/2020.
My employer lost contract with client, they have 7 months for transition till, (till Sept'2021).
My current H1B is expiring in Dec'21.
I still didn't get EAD, no finger print appointment yet, hoping to get 2-3 months.
My client is fine with me, so my options are
1. Continue with current employer till Sept, hopefully I get EAD mean time, so I can change employer using EAD (AC21), in this case I may not have H1b.
2. Change to other employer/vendor now with H1b transfer.

What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

I know so many questions, appreciate your suggestions.

Thanks.

[drop2ocean]

My wife has lost H4 EAD. Is there a way she can accept new employment while waiting for a replacement ? I hear it could take 4-8 months for the new one to come in.

We have applied for 1485 based EAD in Oct 2020 as well. Hoping that would come along soon.

[incredible]

Hi experts,
Need your advice, I am following this website for a long time.
Here is my situation.
My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2-I), I survived few layoffs and changed 3 employers in last 13 years, still no end to GC journey.
We filed I-485, EAD/AP on 10/20/2020, my I-1485 application is accepted with FP fee received date 11/20/2020.
My spouse and kid's applications rejected, due to missing information, refiled for family on 12/22/2020.
My employer lost contract with client, they have 7 months for transition till, (till Sept'2021).
My current H1B is expiring in Dec'21.
I still didn't get EAD, no finger print appointment yet, hoping to get 2-3 months.
My client is fine with me, so my options are
1. Continue with current employer till Sept, hopefully I get EAD mean time, so I can change employer using EAD (AC21), in this case I may not have H1b.
2. Change to other employer/vendor now with H1b transfer.

What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

I know so many questions, appreciate your suggestions.

Thanks.

The chances in-general of 485 denial are low as long as all the general things are in order. It is the same which would deny primary H1 itself. That being said, your PD is not yet current for FAD. You may need to give it at-least 3 months or so of it being current to get greened. It may be possible that you may get greened by September, but also it may go to next year (Oct onwards). The one silver lining probably could be once it becomes current, it could stay current for long time (with spill overs etc.), so it may be greened any time after that. The first hope for you is to get the EAD. But you should not wait for it and initiate H1b with your employer and can discuss with them that you will join them after approval of H1b. Itself may take few months and you can continue to work with your company during that time and at the same time hoping for EAD. Both 1 and 2 can be in parallel for you. Neither has to be preferred than the other at least for the time being. Depending on which one comes first, you can take a call on that later. Other experts may weigh in here. Good luck.

[incredible]

The chances in-general of 485 denial are low as long as all the general things are in order. It is the same which would deny primary H1 itself. That being said, your PD is not yet current for FAD. You may need to give it at-least 3 months or so of it being current to get greened. It may be possible that you may get greened by September, but also it may go to next year (Oct onwards). The one silver lining probably could be once it becomes current, it could stay current for long time (with spill overs etc.), so it may be greened any time after that. The first hope for you is to get the EAD. But you should not wait for it and initiate H1b with your employer and can discuss with them that you will join them after approval of H1b. Itself may take few months and you can continue to work with your company during that time and at the same time hoping for EAD. Both 1 and 2 can be in parallel for you. Neither has to be preferred than the other at least for the time being. Depending on which one comes first, you can take a call on that later. Other experts may weigh in here. Good luck.

Just to clarify, when it was mentioned about #1 and #2 being parallel. You can ask your client to file for H1B without changing right away and inform that you will join them when either of the things happens (either EAD arrival and/or H1 approval). A

[H1b2006]

Hi guys received PWD after 6months, my new employer is doing recruitment now, for filing perm next month. SOC CODE i have in 2011 no longer exists, what precautions do i need to take to take a SOC which is similar to old SOC code and job duties and designation so that i will not face problems for 485 Supplement J later on.if i make sure job duties in 2011 soc code are inline in my recruitment is thast good enough

[AceMan]

Hi guys received PWD after 6months, my new employer is doing recruitment now, for filing perm next month. SOC CODE i have in 2011 no longer exists, what precautions do i need to take to take a SOC which is similar to old SOC code and job duties and designation so that i will not face problems for 485 Supplement J later on.if i make sure job duties in 2011 soc code are inline in my recruitment is thast good enough

I had my SOC Code 15-1132 used before and when I submitted 485 J in October, the number was 1133. I did not ask the attorney yet, but based on past information, I see no issues.

[H1b2006]

how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.

[3nov10]

I had my SOC Code 15-1132 used before and when I submitted 485 J in October, the number was 1133. I did not ask the attorney yet, but based on past information, I see no issues.

Ace, my new employer also applied a new perm for me (July 2020 - not approved yet).
I always thought this is a new perm for a new job. Why does it need to be in-line with the old SOC code. Does it have implications on porting the date when we apply I-140?

[vsivarama]

What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

Thanks.

Most of the i485 denial cases are because the underlying i-140 was denied. There are very few i485 denials after i140 is approved and usually the reasons have to be pretty egregious like fraud or felony. So it's pretty safe to switch over to EAD. Your chances of getting GC are pretty good this FY. But you need not be in a hurry, since the petition for your spouse and kid were filed a couple of months later. Their applications are potentially running behind your application.

[incredible]

how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.

I think these things are based on experience of previous filings. Asking for a 100% confidence in forum is not right. Please go through the details under the relevant labor codes at bls.gov and make your own judgement. Here are some details

https://www.bls.gov/oes/2017/may/oes151132.htm
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2017/may/oes151133.htm


The way I did it in the past is suggested this to my attorney and then asked for guidance and went ahead and filed for Supplement J and it was approved.

[H1b2006]

Ace, my new employer also applied a new perm for me (July 2020 - not approved yet).
I always thought this is a new perm for a new job. Why does it need to be in-line with the old SOC code. Does it have implications on porting the date when we apply I-140?

I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
Not from civil engineering to IT job

[inspired_p]

I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
Not from civil engineering to IT job

This absolutely does not make sense and is wrong IMHO.
Every job is evaluated on its own merit, and porting of priority date does not have anything to do with job descriptions.

The Job matching is required only during I-485J as the new employer is not going through the PERM and I-140 again for the job but basically stating that old perm and I-140 should be still valid.

[Transformer]

I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
Not from civil engineering to IT job

I believe what he said was it has to be same or similar job for 485J not for porting priority date from one employer to other. He was right in that aspect.

[calking1975]

Most of the i485 denial cases are because the underlying i-140 was denied. There are very few i485 denials after i140 is approved and usually the reasons have to be pretty egregious like fraud or felony. So it's pretty safe to switch over to EAD. Your chances of getting GC are pretty good this FY. But you need not be in a hurry, since the petition for your spouse and kid were filed a couple of months later. Their applications are potentially running behind your application.

Thank you @vsivarama and @incredible for your suggestions, it helps a lot.

[inspired_p]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
* Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
* Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
* Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...<br /> <br />

We can guarantee visas will be wasted.. how many is the question. And if visa wastage is taken into account, EB3 will be more favorable I would guess and the dates would move forward more rapidly but applications will be processed randomly ( later PDs getting greened)

[AceMan]

how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.

I looked up the form and see the following language inside.

The original ETA form has SOC Code 15-1051. This code is no longer in use, and the correct code is 15-1121