EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[LeoAugust]

Can we expect one more SO this year on Oct21 VB ...?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1366948108651925513

http://www.state.gov/briefing-with-c...nd-consulates/

[qesehmk]

I concur with others. Unless you are in a financial stressful situation - suck up the expense - and just spend the money.

If you are in a financially troubled situation then go ahead and do it yourself. IT is not too complicated. IMHO The real value of lawyer is not accuracy or knowledge in this case, the real value is simply having a lawyer stand by you.

Need RFE help, lawyer is asking $$$ to reply. This is what they have requested below, can anyone help me on how to go about it.

Do I have to write a cover letter, explaining about all points 1 through 4. Since I am with the same employer, should I just ignore point 1, or get the letter from my employer again.


1. The record establishes that you are the Principal Applicant of an Employment-Based (EB) Form 1-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status. On August 15, 2018, USCIS received your most recent Supplement J, Confirmation of Bona Fide Job Offer or Request for Job Portability Under INA Section 204(j), confirming the job offer with XYZ Corporation for the position of ABCD .

IF your intended permanent employment is different from the job offer specified in your most recent Supplement J, please submit a properly completed and signed Supplement J showing that the offer of intended permanent employment as stated in the Form 1-140 petition continues to exist or that you intend to port to a new offer of employment in the same or similar occupational classification as the job specified in the underlying Form 1-140.

2. For the record, please submit a properly completed, updated Form G-325A, Biographic Information form.

3. Please submit proof of your continuous employment authorization in the U.S. from June 22, 2020 to the present. Such evidence may include copies of
a) Employment Authorization Documents (Forms 1-688 or 1-766) granted to you by this Service;
b) Form 1-797 approval notices, showing you were granted status in an employment-authorized nonimmigrant classification; and/or
c) Copies of Form 1-94 Arrival/Departure Records showing you were admitted to the U.S. in an employment-authorized nonimmigrant status.

4. The validity of the most recent Form 1-693 (medical examination report) that you submitted to USCIS has expired. Please submit a new Form 1-693 completed by a designated civil surgeon to this office together with a copy of this notice. Including a copy of this notice with your Form 1-693 will facilitate matching the medical report with your file.


Thanks for your help!

[jackryan041815]

Can we expect one more SO this year on Oct21 VB ...?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1366948108651925513

http://www.state.gov/briefing-with-c...nd-consulates/

This is really interesting especially this paragraph "And finally, we understand the President?s very strong message, as laid out in his initial actions on immigration, in particular Executive Order 14012 on Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems. The State Department is committed to do everything we can to resolve the backlogs and complete the visa process as efficiently as possible within the process designed to secure our nation?s borders." Does this mean they are committed to moving dates ? TBH I could care less about receiving card in hand lol, more concerned about my son aging out in 2ish years as I am hoping that age is frozen when dates get current. However, it would obviously be great if they process cases as per that paragraph.

[idliman]

This is really interesting especially this paragraph "And finally, we understand the President's very strong message, as laid out in his initial actions on immigration, in particular Executive Order 14012 on Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems. The State Department is committed to do everything we can to resolve the backlogs and complete the visa process as efficiently as possible within the process designed to secure our nation?s borders." Does this mean they are committed to moving dates ? TBH I could care less about receiving card in hand lol, more concerned about my son aging out in 2ish years as I am hoping that age is frozen when dates get current. However, it would obviously be great if they process cases as per that paragraph.

I would like to see next months VB to see if DOS is actually going to aggressively move FA dates. I have not bought into to the 180 degree about turn yet. On the GSiskind's tweet, he had linked a CNN article on the immigration law status. It looks like there are two groups of thoughts (legislators) on house Dem side. The first set of congressman/woman wants to present the existing bills from the last congress (e.g., DREAM bill) and get them in before April 1st so that they can bypass the committee process . The second group is going for everything (read GCs for everyone in the country) stated in Pres JB's immigration bill outline and maybe more. Of course, if you go with the second set, it is not going to pass Senate and they will not have anything positive to show to constituents. Funny that in the entire process, legal immigration is not given that much importance. The big ticket items are concerning DACA and illegal immigration.

For the sake of back loggers, I hope they go with approach 1 to get something done than hogging news cycles for the next 6 months and end up getting defeated in the Senate. We have seen this movie many times where the Hero defeats the villain's (story presenting back loggers as villains taking jobs from Citizens) in the Climax.

[AceMan]

Can we expect one more SO this year on Oct21 VB ...?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1366948108651925513

http://www.state.gov/briefing-with-c...nd-consulates/

75,000 vs 473,000 in 13 months must be only reason why the interviews are not being enforced.

[Transformer]

75,000 vs 473,000 in 13 months must be only reason why the interviews are not being enforced.

This is the snippet from the briefing:
By way of statistics, in January 2020 there were about 75,000 immigrant visa cases pending at the National Visa Center ready for interviews. Thirteen months later, in February 2021, there were 473,000 – about six to seven times greater.

I believe the 473K they are talking about is the NVC number and that doesn't include any of the AOS petitions filed after October in EB. I think in person interviews are mandatory for NVC cases. If Biden admin is prioritizing the NVC cases, I think we can expect very little spillover from FB next year.

[AceMan]

This is the snippet from the briefing:
By way of statistics, in January 2020 there were about 75,000 immigrant visa cases pending at the National Visa Center ready for interviews. Thirteen months later, in February 2021, there were 473,000 – about six to seven times greater.

I believe the 473K they are talking about is the NVC number and that doesn't include any of the AOS petitions filed after October in EB. I think in person interviews are mandatory for NVC cases. If Biden admin is prioritizing the NVC cases, I think we can expect very little spillover from FB next year.

Help me understand how the numbers ballooned to 473 K in NVC when the embassies were closed for majority of the year? I am missing something here.

[Transformer]

Help me understand how the numbers ballooned to 473 K in NVC when the embassies were closed for majority of the year? I am missing something here.

I am wondering the same but I am only quoting what he said.

[qesehmk]

I am wondering the same but I am only quoting what he said.

because it's a pipeline from consulates to NVC. Consulates had 473K in the pipeline they feed to NVC. Even after they stopped taking in applications in person they emptied the pipeline into NVC

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I think in person interviews are mandatory for NVC cases. If Biden admin is prioritizing the NVC cases, I think we can expect very little spillover from FB next year.

Yes Consular petition needs interview.

But just because NVC cases are prioritized, does not mean they will be able to consume the visas in 7 months that they used to do in 12 months. So there is going to be a non-zero spillover going to happen, how much will be the question. We got 120k+ spillover when everything shutdown half way into FY2020. I will be surprised if we don't get at least 100k, if not more for FY2022 unless they change the law.

[3nov10]

Hi Gurus,

I am a long time reader, first time poster.

My PD is Nov 3 2010 EB2. I was not able to file for AOS in Oct because I changed my job (twice) and the PERM from the latest employer is not approved yet. PERM was filed in July 2020, I am hoping to get it approved in this month (trackit data). I believe, I will be able to file the I-140 in premium(or am I wrong.)

My question is should I file in EB3 or EB2.

[aGCHopefull]

Yes Consular petition needs interview.

But just because NVC cases are prioritized, does not mean they will be able to consume the visas in 7 months that they used to do in 12 months. So there is going to be a non-zero spillover going to happen, how much will be the question. We got 120k+ spillover when everything shutdown half way into FY2020. I will be surprised if we don't get at least 100k, if not more for FY2022 unless they change the law.

Probably a naive question, who conducts those interviews for consular petitions? USCIS field offices in US or consulars in various consulates?

How does that impact AOS processing for this year?

[qesehmk]

Probably a naive question, who conducts those interviews for consular petitions? USCIS field offices in US or consulars in various consulates?

How does that impact AOS processing for this year?

consulates abroad conduct it and that's why the FB visas are going unused because consulates are still not operating normal.

It has ZERO impact on AOS processing because AOS is USCIS thing, CP is DOS thing. Unused CP FB visas will benefit EB quota next year. That will be a huge benefit to EB as a whole (just like this year).

[aGCHopefull]

consulates abroad conduct it and that's why the FB visas are going unused because consulates are still not operating normal.

It has ZERO impact on AOS processing because AOS is USCIS thing, CP is DOS thing. Unused CP FB visas will benefit EB quota next year. That will be a huge benefit to EB as a whole (just like this year).

Thanks Q for explaining. So, as consulates are opening up and, if they prioritize CP interviews, they would start consuming FB Visa for current FY. That would result in lesser SO for EB next FY. As others have mentioned, that would depend on at how much capacity they operate on going forward for rest of this FY. right?

[bones20]

Hi Guys - sorry one more ac21 related question: can you do an internal job change within the same company within 180 days of AOS filing?

[Moveon]

Hi Guys - sorry one more ac21 related question: can you do an internal job change within the same company within 180 days of AOS filing?

Yes that would be safe as long as it is in a related function. Eg: moving from one engineering group to another . Reallocation of resources happen all the while at companies and this would be no different . If you are getting promoted from say Staff to Sr Staff Engg along with that , it would be very safe to .
Best of luck

[bones20]

Yes that would be safe as long as it is in a related function. Eg: moving from one engineering group to another . Reallocation of resources happen all the while at companies and this would be no different . If you are getting promoted from say Staff to Sr Staff Engg along with that , it would be very safe to .
Best of luck

Its not a promotion but a lateral move.

[LeoAugust]

consulates abroad conduct it and that's why the FB visas are going unused because consulates are still not operating normal.

It has ZERO impact on AOS processing because AOS is USCIS thing, CP is DOS thing. Unused CP FB visas will benefit EB quota next year. That will be a huge benefit to EB as a whole (just like this year).

Do you see, it will be more than ~120K this year during Sep-VB and if it happen can we guess the EB2/3 to cross 2013 at least ?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q for explaining. So, as consulates are opening up and, if they prioritize CP interviews, they would start consuming FB Visa for current FY. That would result in lesser SO for EB next FY. As others have mentioned, that would depend on at how much capacity they operate on going forward for rest of this FY. right?

Capacity, policy and executive push. This administration is determined to undo negative effects of prior administration as well as COVID. That means they will do everything they can do reduce backlogs from last year. How much can be done remains to be seen since they also need to consider, above else, their own employee well being (i mean consulate employees).

So the more favorable conditions arise, fully expect DOS / USCIS to work overdrive to reduce backlog here and abroad. One negative side effect on EB of course is that it will reduce FB->EB spillover. But I do expect significant visas to EB next year as well.

[AceMan]

Do you see, it will be more than ~120K this year during Sep-VB and if it happen can we guess the EB2/3 to cross 2013 at least ?

2021 FY would be a windfall year like never before. We had 261,000 visas in EB where a huge majority will be available for Eb India due to the continued covid situation. EB1 India had more than 30 K approved 140's one year back. All of them appeared to be cleared. A similar numbers applied to EB2 has the potential for dates till May 2011 this FY.

For 2022 FY, you have to count the embassies reopening and the demand it going to bring in. If you have covid conditions of now still hanging on till early 2022, EB2 I can progress max to 2013 or 2014 depending on how many downgraded.

[qesehmk]

Do you see, it will be more than ~120K this year during Sep-VB and if it happen can we guess the EB2/3 to cross 2013 at least ?

We can say definitively probably around end of April.

[MidWestMaverick]

AceMan, trying to understand your statement - assuming another 100K+ spillover is available in FY22, and with minimal downgrades, where do you think EB-I will end up? (I guess EB2 and EB3 India will have same/similar FA dates in the future)

[LeoAugust]

2021 FY would be a windfall year like never before. We had 261,000 visas in EB where a huge majority will be available for Eb India due to the continued covid situation. EB1 India had more than 30 K approved 140's one year back. All of them appeared to be cleared. A similar numbers applied to EB2 has the potential for dates till May 2011 this FY.

For 2022 FY, you have to count the embassies reopening and the demand it going to bring in. If you have covid conditions of now still hanging on till early 2022, EB2 I can progress max to 2013 or 2014 depending on how many downgraded.

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

[LeoAugust]

We can say definitively probably around end of April.

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

[AceMan]

EB1 is expected to be current till October 2022 for the entire world. Whatever happens beyond that depends on how the economy of the US moves over next 18 months.