EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[srisri]

Finally current after 9 years, and hoping to see GC after 20 years. Do we have any thread that helps people pursuing congressional inquiry or other avenues to speed up the process? If we do can one of you share the link?

[srisri]

There is nothing specific for ROW that I am aware off. USCIS normal calculates EB2 as 2 and EB3 as 2.1. I think, it will be safe to assume 2 for EB1 as well. The below link may be helpful when creating your model.

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

I would say take 2.4 with EB1 as most of the people in EB1 are having kids born outside of US.

[bluelabel]

I need to submit supplement J and our lawyer filled SOC code as 15-1031. I see that it's no longer used but he says it's okay to use what's in the labor certification. Any suggestions on this?

[AceMan]

That should not they be approving all EB2 applied in 2012 with a PD date prior to Apr 2010. They are exempt from interviews and stuff and have applied for EAD multiple times and their biometrics done too.
Only part is their medicals may be required and that may have been done a couple of time too by now.

I am not sure why you are concerned about a silly interview mandate introduced by the previous slob? Every body should be exempted from the mandatory interviews. Even USCIS is not caring about it.

Even medicals should be deemed as redundant. Corona raging across the country with variants 2,3,4 and people are still worried about TB false positives from the 19th century.

[incredible]

I need to submit supplement J and our lawyer filled SOC code as 15-1031. I see that it's no longer used but he says it's okay to use what's in the labor certification. Any suggestions on this?

Hi, I was in a similar situation last year and I discussed with my attorney and eventually filed with code 15-1133

[mr00us]

I would say take 2.4 with EB1 as most of the people in EB1 are having kids born outside of US.

Thanks for the reply.

[maverick2010]

General Noob question:
Does I485 processing time (and GC issuance time) depend only on I485 receipt date ? [Assuming FAD is current]
Or,
- does it depend on priority date ?
- does it depend on EB1 vs EB2 vs EB3 ?

I also have the same question but would like to extend it to filing dates as well. Reason being, since the filing dates concept got introduced in 2015 dates haven't progressed this quickly .

[mr00us]

I would say take 2.4 with EB1 as most of the people in EB1 are having kids born outside of US.

Thank you.

[ak7419]

Hi Folks - I am trying to file my 485J proactively. Does anyone know the address for NSC where I should be mailing it to? My AOS is with NSC. Thanks!

[mr00us]

I am off work today and threw in some numbers based on all the knowledge collected in this forum. This is what I am presuming/predicting for this FY. Image attached.
Attachment 1778

[Moveon]

Hi Folks - I am trying to file my 485J proactively. Does anyone know the address for NSC where I should be mailing it to? My AOS is with NSC. Thanks!

I believe that sending documents w/o being asked for it will only cause more delays for your case. The USCIS is stretched thin and if everyone starts to send Supplement-Js and Medicals w/o being asked for it will only annoy them and might start to put you to the back of the queue. If you believe your case is delayed , raise an SR .

[srimurthy]

I believe that sending documents w/o being asked for it will only cause more delays for your case. The USCIS is stretched thin and if everyone starts to send Supplement-Js and Medicals w/o being asked for it will only annoy them and might start to put you to the back of the queue. If you believe your case is delayed , raise an SR .

I guess people here shared earlier that provide what is requested for if an RFE comes. Rest wait and watch is the best policy other than raising SRs and reaching our representatives.

[fishelusa]

Hi,

Very good analysis. But I heard even though dates are moving initial step is biometrics and back ground checks has to complete. One more thing is depending on ASC the processing delays. Not sure can we see any progress.

[Moveon]

I guess people here shared earlier that provide what is requested for if an RFE comes. Rest wait and watch is the best policy other than raising SRs and reaching our representatives.

Yes Sri, I have been saying that too for a while but the Question keeps coming up .
If you plan to reach out to your members of congress , you can reach out to them using these links , BUT FIRST Start with an SR first so that they know you have done your bit before reaching out to them . Once the SR is responded to and no action is taken after a week , reach out to them with the details for your case and the SR .

https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
https://www.house.gov/representative...representative

[vsivarama]

I am off work today and threw in some numbers based on all the knowledge collected in this forum. This is what I am presuming/predicting for this FY. Image attached.
Attachment 1778

@mr00us, you forgot to factor in x2 multiplier for your result. Those are i-140 numbers, so the actual AOS numbers are going to be significantly higher than them.

[ak7419]

Yes Sri, I have been saying that too for a while but the Question keeps coming up .
If you plan to reach out to your members of congress , you can reach out to them using these links , BUT FIRST Start with an SR first so that they know you have done your bit before reaching out to them . Once the SR is responded to and no action is taken after a week , reach out to them with the details for your case and the SR .

https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
https://www.house.gov/representative...representative

Point noted but how are folks who recently changed jobs filing 485J? Aren't they supposed to file it and wait instead?

[mr00us]

@mr00us, you forgot to factor in x2 multiplier for your result. Those are i-140 numbers, so the actual AOS numbers are going to be significantly higher than them.

Hi--
I do have it there. Look for 'MultFact' word in there. 2.4 as folks suggested here for ROW across all domains and 1.2 for EB2 India. However, I did not use factor for EB3 India because almost all the kids there are US born for the most part. Maybe I should use 1.2 for EB3 as well.

Example: EB2 ROW became 38400 (16000x2.4)

Thanks for checking.

[Moveon]

Point noted but how are folks who recently changed jobs filing 485J? Aren't they supposed to file it and wait instead?

Again this is has been discussed multiple times. You Donot have to send Supplement J when you change jobs . There is no such rule, so don't burden the USCIS with it . Most of us have changed jobs without filing it . Some of my friends even got their GCs recently .
The more unwanted paper work you send, the more it could delay your application as they will not process it till your date is current. Once it is current there is more paper work for them to review for your case.

[bluelabel]

Hi, I was in a similar situation last year and I discussed with my attorney and eventually filed with code 15-1133

15-1133 is also no longer in use. Not sure if we can still use the old ones. Has anyone got approved with old SOC code(as in PERM)?

[vsivarama]

Hi--
I do have it there. Look for 'MultFact' word in there. 2.4 as folks suggested here for ROW across all domains and 1.2 for EB2 India. However, I did not use factor for EB3 India because almost all the kids there are US born for the most part. Maybe I should use 1.2 for EB3 as well.

Example: EB2 ROW became 38400 (16000x2.4)

Thanks for checking.

Multiplication factor for EB2 and EB3 should be around 2 - 2.4. Most of the kids are born in US. In most of the cases however, with a primary applicant there is almost always a dependent (the spouse). So a factor of 1 or 1.2 is too generous IMO.

[AceMan]

Point noted but how are folks who recently changed jobs filing 485J? Aren't they supposed to file it and wait instead?

Some times doing nothing is the right thing :-)

[nbk1976]

I am not sure why you are concerned about a silly interview mandate introduced by the previous slob? Every body should be exempted from the mandatory interviews. Even USCIS is not caring about it.

Even medicals should be deemed as redundant. Corona raging across the country with variants 2,3,4 and people are still worried about TB false positives from the 19th century.

I agree: issue a temporary GC for a year and have the applicant submit an updated medicals/Sup-J for the restriction to be lifted. This would make it so much easier and speed things up, considering most applications are already pre-adjudicated.

[Moveon]

I agree: issue a temporary GC for a year and have the applicant submit an updated medicals/Sup-J for the restriction to be lifted. This would make it so much easier and speed things up, considering most applications are already pre-adjudicated.

I agree with Aceman. I would say that if a person has not traveled outside the country since the last medical then the medicals are not necessary at all. Very large Majority of the 2012 filers submitted medicals late 2018 - early 2019 so there is no reason to ask for it again . Its a $1000 hole for 2 people . The USCIS has your travel history , so they can know who did travel and to where. How many really get a positive TB test really?
About the temp GC , sadly there is no such provision I guess as its too much work after a year for them. They should just give the GCs to the pre-adjudicated cases as they again reviewed all of them late 2018 and 2019 .

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I agree with Aceman. I would say that if a person has not traveled outside the country since the last medical then the medicals are not necessary at all. Very large Majority of the 2012 filers submitted medicals late 2018 - early 2019 so there is no reason to ask for it again . Its a $1000 hole for 2 people . The USCIS has your travel history , so they can know who did travel and to where. How many really get a positive TB test really?
About the temp GC , sadly there is no such provision I guess as its too much work after a year for them. They should just give the GCs to the pre-adjudicated cases as they again reviewed all of them late 2018 and 2019 .

Yeah they could do so many more efficient things. Like if someone has spent 15 yrs on H1B already in the US, then making them go outside and get stamping at a Consulate rather than just providing them with a travel document along with the petition approval.... can you imagine the amount of time, energy and money that could be saved? I used to travel all over the world for my work and there was always confusion when the employer asks "so you have your Brazil visa and are already here in the US on a work visa and you are saying you may first have to go to India to get another US visa before you travel to Brazil??!"

[mr00us]

Multiplication factor for EB2 and EB3 should be around 2 - 2.4. Most of the kids are born in US. In most of the cases however, with a primary applicant there is almost always a dependent (the spouse). So a factor of 1 or 1.2 is too generous IMO.

Was wondering the same but I read somewhere that it is 1.2 for EB2 India, so I went along with it.

---------------------------------------------------
EB2-I Mult. Factor Visa Available Prediction
---------------------------------------------------
2.0 26000 15-Apr-11
2.1 26000 1-Apr-11
2.2 25000 15-Mar-11
2.3 24000 1-Mar-11
2.4 23000 15-Feb-11
---------------------------------------------------
* Add 15 days for every 1000 spillover from EB1A

I would love to visit this at the end of FY 2021 and see how much close to reality we were. :-)