EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[suninphx]

For any politically(left , right, center or whatever) motivated post we have a separate thread now. Please use that.

[vsivarama]

Attachment 1776

Not taking that....

LOL! I thought that too.

[prabakarb]

LOL! I thought that too.

Turbulent_Dragonfly/vsivarama: I expected the mocking but, you would have disputed what I said if I said something wrong, you cannot do that as those were the facts, it is not a bait. You can mock all you want, but if you want to me ignorant, that is your prerogative.

suninphx: You are right, we can use the different forum for these conversation, but someone started in this forum so I replied.

[bones20]

Unless you already have a i140 in EB3 approved it's only going to add to your wait time. Plus for people who are thinking of downgrade (esp who filed AOS in Oct 2020), need to keep one thing in mind. Date is current not necessarily equals to GC. Date is current and 485 application process (fingerprints/Background checks/possible Interviews) is complete equals GC. USCIS will perform these actions on their schedule.

Do you already have approved 140 in EB3? If not, I don't think it is a good idea. 140 is taking a long time now and most of the cases they are rejecting premium process for downgrade 140. I think, you will get your GC in EB2 before your EB3 140 is approved.

thank you.

[smuggymba]

This is more of a practice thing. How different law firms do their business practice is different. This law firm consisting of Rahul Reddy and Emily Neumann (aka Immigration Girl) were made internet famous in the ITServ alliance issue. Google to see more details / videos for yourself.

I digress but want to comment anyway: It's shameful that people still use this guys services; he's clearly one who wanted us to be stuck in backlogs so he and his cabal can continue to milk us for decades. We desis have a very short memory and that's a dangerous thing - no one should use his services.

sorry for the rant, back to the topic.

[qesehmk]

I digress but want to comment anyway: It's shameful that people still use this guys services; he's clearly one who wanted us to be stuck in backlogs so he and his cabal can continue to milk us for decades. We desis have a very short memory and that's a dangerous thing - no one should use his services.

sorry for the rant, back to the topic.

I have the same impression about him. I don't think one needs to file another 485. Looks like he wants to earn his filing fees.

[srimurthy]

First with the recent pace of EB2 movement, you may be current very soon in EB2. As you already have "AOS Pending" and EAD/AP, I would advise you to do EB2 to EB3 interfiling only when the "FA" dates are current and you are reasonably confident that they will not retrogress.

Idliman - Maverick's PD is Sep'2010 so with a EB2 filing there may be no EAD / AP yet, just in case you want to present a alternate path.

[aGCHopefull]

Few questions related to SSN. Can you please explain and advise based on your experience?

So we opted for SSN when applying for EAD in Oct 2020.

1. When do dependents receive SSN? Let's say EAD is approved sometime in March, when we can expect SSN?
2. Once EAD is approved, is there any action item pertaining to SSN on us? Do we need to go to SSN office?
3. Can SSN be used for tax filing right away? To be specific, if SSN is issued in March 2021 then can it be used for Tax year 2020 filing? (PS: used ITIN in prior years).
4. Again to use SSN on tax filing (instead of ITIN)... what do we need to do?

5. If let's say, we use SSN for Tax Year 2020 and that somehow put us in an income threshold that provides benefit from Covid stimulus.... would that harm from public charge perspective?

[H1b2006]

Great News from March Bulletin.

Folks considering all the lock boxes are not opened and not all applications are not receipted yet, how many months of additional processing time it will add once your FAD is current, since USCIS is still backlogged receipting the applications.

Also what abt mandatory interview how much time it will add to get GC once FAD is current.

[idliman]

Idliman - Maverick's PD is Sep'2010 so with a EB2 filing there may be no EAD / AP yet, just in case you want to present a alternate path.

I would still wait for the magic word from CO to understand the movement. With EB1I moving 7 months, they are setting it to be current in the next 2 bulletins. Once EB1I is current EB2I should zoom ahead. When will it happen? May or later. If it is much later, where is USCIS going to get capacity to process GCs? Already most interviews are cancelled for EB. But some higherup from JB admin should demand results from USCIS for it to change its mentality from enforcement to benefits/service mindset. It is definitely possible, looking at how fast they issued GCs in 2012 or so.

If you remember, the DF was set at 15MAY11 in Oct for EB2I. You can guess the number of people from May2010 who have down-ported to EB3I. So anyone before that time has a good chance. EB3I is a sure bet for Sep2010 (EB3I is already at 01JUL2010). But will down-porting help? In the worst case for EB2I, lets say Sep2010 waits till next year to be FA current (with another huge spillover from FB). You may want to look at the current trends to decide.

[gcconnect]

Few questions related to SSN. Can you please explain and advise based on your experience?

So we opted for SSN when applying for EAD in Oct 2020.

1. When do dependents receive SSN? Let's say EAD is approved sometime in March, when we can expect SSN?
2. Once EAD is approved, is there any action item pertaining to SSN on us? Do we need to go to SSN office?
3. Can SSN be used for tax filing right away? To be specific, if SSN is issued in March 2021 then can it be used for Tax year 2020 filing? (PS: used ITIN in prior years).
4. Again to use SSN on tax filing (instead of ITIN)... what do we need to do?

5. If let's say, we use SSN for Tax Year 2020 and that somehow put us in an income threshold that provides benefit from Covid stimulus.... would that harm from public charge perspective?

I received SSN for my daughter as soon as EAD received (After 5 days) .I called SSN office and they told me , no need to come to SSN office( you can call nearby SSN office and check). Used for tax filing for 2020 and got refund also.
Not claimed Covid stimulus which is eligible for new SSN
Take expert advise on public charge

[AceMan]

If you remember, the DF was set at 15MAY11 in Oct for EB2I. You can guess the number of people from May2010 who have down-ported to EB3I. So anyone before that time has a good chance. EB3I is a sure bet for Sep2010 (EB3I is already at 01JUL2010). But will down-porting help? In the worst case for EB2I, lets say Sep2010 waits till next year to be FA current (with another huge spillover from FB). You may want to look at the current trends to decide.

I want to present a story which I am sure lot of you must have heard.

As a sociological experiment, 10 monkeys were placed in a large cage. High up at the top of the cage, beyond the reach of the monkeys, were a bunch of bananas. Underneath the bananas was a ladder leading to the bananas. The monkeys hadn?t been fed for 12 hours and were extremely hungry. The monkeys immediately spot the bananas and the strongest begins to climb the ladder. As he does, however, a slight electric shock keeps him from ascending the ladder. At the same time that the monkey climbing the ladder gets a shock, the other monkeys on the floor are sprayed with water. The monkey on the ladder scrambles off and all 10 hungry monkeys sit for a time on the floor. Soon, the temptation of the bananas is too great and another monkey begins to climb the ladder. Again, the monkey is met with a slight electric shock as well as the other monkeys being sprayed. Over time, the monkeys learn not to go up the ladder. Now one monkey is removed and a new monkey is introduced to the cage. Spotting the bananas, he heads towards the ladder. The other monkeys, knowing his intention, cut him off and beat him. A second monkey is removed; he is one of the original 10 monkeys and is replaced with a new monkey. Again, the new monkey heads towards the ladder and, again, the other monkeys cut him off and beat him ? including the monkey who had never been up the ladder.

By the end of the experiment, none of the original monkeys were left. Despite none of them ever experiencing the slight shock, they had all learned not to climb up the ladder for the bananas.

[idliman]

I still don't know. That's how things are done around here.

But you cannot fault anyone. No one in the right frame of mind would have guessed that the some of the 2012 folks (15JAN2010+) would still be waiting for their FA dates to be current after 9 years. Before you blink, you lose quite a few years in backlog. Had it been DT admin, I would have honestly told everyone to try porting.

[Zenzone]

Attachment 1776

Not taking that....

Was just catching up since yday. This is perfect. Let's not entertain trolls here. Complete waste of time. Those ppl. have trackitt just for that!

[maverick2010]

Thanks idliman for your insights!

I think folks who have PD in 2010 are going to live with this confusion until they get greened one way or other. May be the next April visa bulletin will provide trend on forward movement and give us better idea on how things going to pan out this year.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Filing Date is not being accepted for March, only FAD. Some may have missed out unfortunately, but positive news for those who got in to be honest because it would mean that they will have more processing capacity to approve I-485s rather than be stuck on initial receipting forever. This could be what they do for the rest of the fiscal which will portend well for spillover visa usage.

[AceMan]

Filing Date is not being accepted for March, only FAD. Some may have missed out unfortunately, but positive news for those who got in to be honest because it would mean that they will have more processing capacity to approve I-485s rather than be stuck on initial receipting forever. This could be what they do for the rest of the fiscal which will portend well for spillover visa usage.

Lot of people who are FD current in EB3 from April to June 30th are yet to get their receipts. It is going to be interesting to watch how things work for them.

[bikenlalan]

I need your opinion, My PD is EB-2 28 Feb 2011 and filed 485 on Oct 23, 2020. Still no fingerprints.
With the current date movement for EB3, would it be wise to start the downgrade process from EB2-EB3? Or wait for a few more VB to see how the trend is for EB3 and then start the process? My company's attorney mentioned that if the PD in EB3 becomes current, then we can start the downgrade process, but I feel waiting for that to happen may cost me faster GC if EB2 does not catch up to my PD and EB3 retrogresses and 140 approval takes longer these days. I would like to hear all of your opinions, Yes or No!
Would appreciate your responses.

[Transformer]

Lot of people who are FD current in EB3 from April to June 30th are yet to get their receipts. It is going to be interesting to watch how things work for them.

I think most of the people who filed in October got receipts but there is a huge backlog for biometrics. It's definitely interesting to watch if USCIS continue to move the FA dates despite not many approvable cases after April 2010. Unless they speed up biometrics, waive interviews and increase processing speed, I think they will waste lot of visas.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Lot of people who are FD current in EB3 from April to June 30th are yet to get their receipts. It is going to be interesting to watch how things work for them.

Maybe those people will directly get their GC instead of EAD/AP once they do their biometrics

[Moveon]

It is funny to people give credit to new admin for the date movement in VB. It is Trump admin which restricted new family and DV GCs last year to protect American citizens and legal immigrants which resulted VB date movement. Dems do not care of about legal immigrants, they want illegals for their vote bank. I am sad to see how brainwashed people are.

prabakarb , please be more informed before making a comment. The Extra 120K was an unintended consequence of the order to close down the consulates. After the first VB, the trump administration quickly throttled the movement of dates and in its last VB allowed only a 2 day movement. Many of us mailed our members of congress and I got a response from two of them saying that they will look into it . Give credit when its due and plz do your research. Yes, democrats have leaned towards undocumented workers while republicans before Trump did more for EB. The previous admin hated most immigrants . Just look at the EAD/AP renewal times quadrupling under Trump . My AP is pending for the last 8 months. The current VB does makes me current, so will hope for the best.

[iamdeb]

Filing Date is not being accepted for March, only FAD. Some may have missed out unfortunately, but positive news for those who got in to be honest because it would mean that they will have more processing capacity to approve I-485s rather than be stuck on initial receipting forever. This could be what they do for the rest of the fiscal which will portend well for spillover visa usage.

DOS moved the EB1 filing date to current for all countries this bulletin. What is the point of advancing the filing date when USCIS is not going to accept it?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

DOS moved the EB1 filing date to current for all countries this bulletin. What is the point of advancing the filing date when USCIS is not going to accept it?

Yeah, pretty good observation. If they were confident that there are not many numbers between Aug 2020 and now in EB1, they could have simply made it current in FAD. I don't know if EB1 to EB2 spillover is immediately triggered and *has* to be implemented as soon as EB1 is current in FAD, so maybe they are trying to control that?

[inspired_p]

I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.

But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least

So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?

Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.

Am I missing something here?

[Zenzone]

prabakarb , please be more informed before making a comment. The Extra 120K was an unintended consequence of the order to close down the consulates. After the first VB, the trump administration quickly throttled the movement of dates and in its last VB allowed only a 2 day movement. Many of us mailed our members of congress and I got a response from two of them saying that they will look into it . Give credit when its due and plz do your research. Yes, democrats have leaned towards undocumented workers while republicans before Trump did more for EB. The previous admin hated most immigrants . Just look at the EAD/AP renewal times quadrupling under Trump . My AP is pending for the last 8 months. The current VB does makes me current, so will hope for the best.

Honestly, I won't even bother replying mate. It was a troll at best!