EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[texas_]

Thanks Idlliman as always..

However, I filed my green card application only in October 2020 with a PD of October 2010 for EB3 category
Do USCIS still waiving Interviews for all the EB even if you filed your application after March 2017?


Should getting a layoff after 180 days and not finding job when my PD is current then what happens?
Just a hypothetical situation

Thanks in advance;
JP

[immieb2i]

Hi Gurus, I need your help.

I received the interview request online case status. I am bit concerned because I filed i485 in 2012. The interview for employment based started in March 2017 onwards application.

Could you please help, why I am getting interview? Bit worried on this. Don't have any offence, or criminal activity.

My priority date in March 2010 EB2I
Field 485 in 2012.
Changed employer in 2017 May.
Field i485J: 2017 June
i485J was showing the status still in pending in online status till Nov'2020.
Contacted my company lawyer and they contacted USCIS in Jan 2021.

[immieb2i]

Hi Gurus, Needs your help.


I received the interview request online case status. I am bit concerned because I filed i485 in 2012. The interview for employment based started in March 2017 onwards application.

Could you please help, why I am getting interview? Bit worried on this, don't have any criminal record.

My priority date in March 2010 EB2I
Field 485 in 2012.
Changed employer in 2017 May.
Field i485J: 2017 June
i485J was showing the status still in pending in online status till Nov'2020.
Contacted my company lawyer and they contacted USCIS in Jan 2021.

[vsivarama]

Thanks Idlliman as always..

However, I filed my green card application only in October 2020 with a PD of October 2010 for EB3 category
Do USCIS still waiving Interviews for all the EB even if you filed your application after March 2017?


Should getting a layoff after 180 days and not finding job when my PD is current then what happens?
Just a hypothetical situation

Thanks in advance;
JP

If your file is complete and USCIS does not have any RFEs for you then you get your GC. RFE's like medicals you should be fine as well. It's 485J RFE that you need to worry about. If you are unable to find a job in time to respond to the RFE your case may be in jeopardy. But these are one off scenarios and hoping none of us have to go through it.

[texas_]

Thanks Visva, Turbulent, Idlliman and all experts

That means I 485 filing and passing 180 days is way better situation compare to one in H1B Status.

Thanks again guys and Qesehmk community

[smuggymba]

Last night I received an email from USCIS regarding an RFE they have sent to me, I did receive RFE for medicals and Supp J in 2018.

hopefully Texas Service Center catches up soon. I'm March 2010 EB2 /TSC?

[Moveon]

Thanks Visva, Turbulent, Idlliman and all experts

That means I 485 filing and passing 180 days is way better situation compare to one in H1B Status.

Thanks again guys and Qesehmk community

Yes , having the EAD is like a Semi GC. Because the EAD was meant to be a stop Gap of 2-4 months between filing of AOS and getting the GC, its not defined as to how they can treat you if you are our of a job on EAD. So you get the benefit of doubt . As Mentioned previously the only time you can get into trouble is when you get an RFE for supplement J and you are out of a job . Getting Sup-J is rare unless your date is close or been a while since the last one was issued (5-6 years). The advantage of EAD is there is no transfer of any sort and employers are more willing to hire you as you are not considered as an HIB candidate . HIB is time/money consuming for many employers and when premium processing is not available it takes 3-4 months for a transfer . You can join the day the offer is extended (provided background checks are fine) with EAD.

EAD is quite close to a GC as long you are OK to work in the same area of the one in your petition .

[texas_]

Thanks Moveon ... and all the experts

EAD based on Pending I-485 is like a boon for the folks waiting for GC in line, it appears.

Since my supplement J was signed in October 2020 and my PD is not far either (October 2010) there should not be a problem, I guess.
I was just thinking worst possible scenario but it appears that GC is for future employment and signing supplement J should not be an issue for the current employer as it is for future employment when RFE comes and beneficiary loses employment

Awesome guys thanks yet again to all the knowledgeful peeps on Qesehmk...
Best Regards
JP

[AceMan]

Thanks Moveon ... and all the experts

EAD based on Pending I-485 is like a boon for the folks waiting for GC in line, it appears.

Since my supplement J was signed in October 2020 and my PD is not far either (October 2010) there should not be a problem, I guess.
I was just thinking worst possible scenario but it appears that GC is for future employment and signing supplement J should not be an issue for the current employer as it is for future employment when RFE comes and beneficiary loses employment

Awesome guys thanks yet again to all the knowledgeful peeps on Qesehmk...
Best Regards
JP

And with an AP COMBO EAD card you can avoid travelling to embassies for stamping internationally.

[texas_]

I agree 100% Ace, going to embassies and have it stamped is not a good experience.
Last I visited India was a decade ago, since my parents are also in US on GC as my brother sponsored them.

[monsieur]

@Aceman, @idilliman I agree with your sentiments. I try to *ignore* folks who argue with me about EB1 vs EB2 vs EB3 argument. They don't know a shit abt immigration rule, these folks are like parrot who are repeating buzzwords just coz they heard it from their Lawyers (who I say a biggest culprit).

These guys are in situation where they can file for EB1/EB2 just because they worked outside of US for 1-2 yrs, lawyers will present them as Functional Mgr and file for EB1/2. Lawyers wants their shop to run so they will push envelope and get you GC faster. Just like CPA will tell you to take deduction even when its not allowed to get you bigger refund. EB1/2/3 will not make a person smarter, its just that they had lawyer who will represent them as EB1/2 (ahem just like whats going on in senate, Lawyer representing twisted case when we all saw what happened on Jan 6th on Live TV)

My college saying - Jab kismat hai gandu, to kya karega Pandu. I will wait for my GC and once it comes (sooner or later) will sit in my Bank Locker while I go to work in morning.

[rocketfast]

Did not see anyone post USCIS annual report for 2020.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ual-Report.pdf

Appendix A has summary of last year. In this report, USCIS claims that it approved 128,000 employment GCs last year. You add another 15,000 consular processing, you will see that USCIS wasted around 13,000 GCs.

[may2011]

Thats a lot of wastage!

[qesehmk]

Did not see anyone post USCIS annual report for 2020.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ual-Report.pdf

Appendix A has summary of last year. In this report, USCIS claims that it approved 128,000 employment GCs last year. You add another 15,000 consular processing, you will see that USCIS wasted around 13,000 GCs.

If they couldn't allocate then those visas by law should have gone to FB - just like unused FB visas came to EB.

You may want to check if FB received any EB spillover, if so then your theory is correct. Also 15K CP sounds too low. I am sure it usually is 22K. But given COVID I don't want to predict how CP visas behaved.

[may2011]

Hello All,

I am new to this forum.My PD is May2011( EB2-India).I would like to thank every single one of the gurus here!Your posts and analyses really helped me understand the entire process of GC allocation.I even signed up for 'whereismygc'.

Prior to the spillover I had given up the hopes of getting a GC in my lifetime.I had almost made the decision to move to Canada for the sake of stability and the ease of traveling to India without worrying about visas.But the spillover and the predictions as per 'whereismygc' website have rekindled my hope again.I am confused about what I should do. I have applied for EAD/AP, but from what I read ,a GC can still be ages away if there is visa wastage or other issues. I would really appreciate some advice on pointers on my concerns;

1) Can my i485 be rejected due to errors in filing.In Oct 2020,my employer filed for 1000s of AOS applications.I am concerned about clerical errors on the lawyers parts due to sheer volume of applications.Does a rejection mean I lose my place in the GC line?

2)The flurry of executive orders wrt to H1Bs like wage levels etc have exposed the transient state of a temporary visa status in US.From a legal standpoint, can policy changes affect GC applications?The previous administration introduced the 'Public Charge Rule'.Most H1Bs should not be affected by it.But I am wary about what future conservative administrations can do.So I am concerned about continuing to stay in US on EAD or H1B.

3)Am I being overly paranoid or are my concerns valid?

4)In order to maintain my Canadian PR ,I have to move till Jan 2023.My current plan is to observe the PD movement till Dec2021 and then make a decision.Should I wait for the birds in a bush or pursue a bird in hand?

Sorry for my rant! Just confused

[may2011]

Hello All,

I am new to this forum.My PD is May2011( EB2-India).I would like to thank every single one of the gurus here!Your posts and analyses really helped me understand the entire process of GC allocation.I even signed up for 'whereismygc'.

Prior to the spillover I had given up the hopes of getting a GC in my lifetime.I had almost made the decision to move to Canada for the sake of stability and the ease of traveling to India without worrying about visas.But the spillover and the predictions as per 'whereismygc' website have rekindled my hope again.I am confused about what I should do. I have applied for EAD/AP, but from what I read ,a GC can still be ages away if there is visa wastage or other issues. I would really appreciate some advice on pointers on my concerns;

1) Can my i485 be rejected due to errors in filing.In Oct 2020,my employer filed for 1000s of AOS applications.I am concerned about clerical errors on the lawyers parts due to sheer volume of applications.Does a rejection mean I lose my place in the GC line?

2)The flurry of executive orders wrt to H1Bs like wage levels etc have exposed the transient state of a temporary visa status in US.From a legal standpoint, can policy changes affect GC applications?The previous administration introduced the 'Public Charge Rule'.Most H1Bs should not be affected by it.But I am wary about what future conservative administrations can do.So I am concerned about continuing to stay in US on EAD or H1B.

3)Am I being overly paranoid or are my concerns valid?

4)In order to maintain my Canadian PR ,I have to move till Jan 2023.My current plan is to observe the PD movement till Dec2021 and then make a decision.Should I wait for the birds in a bush or pursue a bird in hand?

Sorry for my rant! Just confused

[rocketfast]

If they couldn't allocate then those visas by law should have gone to FB - just like unused FB visas came to EB.

You may want to check if FB received any EB spillover, if so then your theory is correct. Also 15K CP sounds too low. I am sure it usually is 22K. But given COVID I don't want to predict how CP visas behaved.

FB allocation cannot exceed 226,000 with such small spillovers from EB.
See: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819

Consular processing last year is indeed 15k.
See: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post67475

[qesehmk]

Hmm thanks. Looks like it's not the size of spillover, it's really IR category that is ballooning every year. So FB will realistically be 226K forever.

Regarding the 2020 CP number - thanks again. I assume the number is true and if so - what a shame for USCIS to have wasted so many visas when there are ample Desi folks waiting for decades.

FB allocation cannot exceed 226,000 with such small spillovers from EB.
See: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819

Consular processing last year is indeed 15k.
See: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post67475

[may2011]

Hello All,

I am new to this forum.First and foremost I would like all the gurus and pandits for your posts and analyses. They have really helped me understand the process of GC allocation.

I apologize for the long rant, but I would really appreciate some advice and suggestions.My PD is May 2011 (EB2-India)

Prior to Oct 2020, I had given up on getting a GC in my lifetime. I had made up my mind to move to Canada mainly for stability and the ease of travel to India.The spillover and the prediction by 'whereismygc' have rekindled some hope in me .I am mainly concerned about the following issues;

1) If my i485 is rejected due to clerical errors in the form, do I lose my line in the GC queue?In Oct 2020, my employer filed for 1000s of AOS and I am concerned about filing errors by the law firm due to sheer volume of applications.

2)Can an administration introduce more requirements for conversion from EAD to GC?The previous administration introduced the 'Public Charge Rule'.Most H1Bs won't be affected by it, but still I am wary about a future rule by a conservative administration.Basically I am worried about being on EAD for 5+ years and then being denied.

3)Am I being paranoid or are my concerns valid?I really don't understand what to do.Should I go for the bird in hand (Canadian PR) or pursue the two bird in the bush?I have to move to Canada by Jan 2023 to maintain my PR.

[Zenzone]

Hello All,

I am new to this forum.First and foremost I would like all the gurus and pandits for your posts and analyses. They have really helped me understand the process of GC allocation.

I apologize for the long rant, but I would really appreciate some advice and suggestions.My PD is May 2011 (EB2-India)

Prior to Oct 2020, I had given up on getting a GC in my lifetime. I had made up my mind to move to Canada mainly for stability and the ease of travel to India.The spillover and the prediction by 'whereismygc' have rekindled some hope in me .I am mainly concerned about the following issues;

1) If my i485 is rejected due to clerical errors in the form, do I lose my line in the GC queue?In Oct 2020, my employer filed for 1000s of AOS and I am concerned about filing errors by the law firm due to sheer volume of applications.

2)Can an administration introduce more requirements for conversion from EAD to GC?The previous administration introduced the 'Public Charge Rule'.Most H1Bs won't be affected by it, but still I am wary about a future rule by a conservative administration.Basically I am worried about being on EAD for 5+ years and then being denied.

3)Am I being paranoid or are my concerns valid?I really don't understand what to do.Should I go for the bird in hand (Canadian PR) or pursue the two bird in the bush?I have to move to Canada by Jan 2023 to maintain my PR.

I can say that you safely have two shots at your GC between this fiscal and the next one (due to continuing prospects of FB SO this year too). I would wait until atleast Sep 2022 if I were you considering all else being equal. Once you get your EAD/AP, you are at least 50% better off as your dependency on a non-immigrant visa is technically removed from the equation. For example, remember just by filing the I-485 you don't accrue unlawful presence if you lose your job and after 180 days you get the portability advantage too (see idliman's great summary above for more specifics). Answer to your first question - You don't lose your line in GC as you can re-apply correcting clerical errors (if any) as long as the underlying I-140 is intact. Lastly, I don't think anyone can predict and plan a scenario with future conservative admin etc. All we know is that the present admin. is definitely a positive development compared to the last one, therefore, next 4 years should be relatively calmer is a pragmatic expectation. Hope this helps.

[monsieur]

1) If my i485 is rejected due to clerical errors in the form, do I lose my line in the GC queue?In Oct 2020, my employer filed for 1000s of AOS and I am concerned about filing errors by the law firm due to sheer volume of applications.

Visa get denied, if some error you will get RFE to fix any issue or additional detail.

2)Can an administration introduce more requirements for conversion from EAD to GC?The previous administration introduced the 'Public Charge Rule'.Most H1Bs won't be affected by it, but still I am wary about a future rule by a conservative administration.Basically I am worried about being on EAD for 5+ years and then being denied.

There is always a chance fo rule changes for every aspect of life; you shouldn't be fearful of those. If needed be ready to reach out to Senator / Congressmen / Advocacy grp when adverse bill is on docket. Worst case Judicial branch will step in, just like what happened to DACA.

3)Am I being paranoid or are my concerns valid?I really don't understand what to do.Should I go for the bird in hand (Canadian PR) or pursue the two bird in the bush?I have to move to Canada by Jan 2023 to maintain my PR.

This is something you have to decide. I have spent 18+ years on Visa; moved jobs ,purchased cars, houses, Traveled when I liked. I didn't compromised on my way of living just because I didn't have piece of paper saying I am LPR of US. If moving to Canada gives you piece of mind then do it. Your health and piece of mind is much much imp than LPR of US.

PS: No I never thought of having PR of Canada or Other countries. I will stay in US till job is good, willing to move to any part of world if I get good opportunity and my piece of mind.

[may2011]

Thank you for your prompt reply.Waiting till Sep 2022 seems pragmatic. I think I will end up doing that.

Good to know that I won't lose my line incase of clerical errors.phew!

About the spillover for 2022, won't the spillover only happen if there are closures till Sept 2021?If there are closures till March 2021, won't those numbers will be utilized due by FB applicants waiting since 2020?Just trying to understand how the numbers are utilized.

[may2011]

I can say that you safely have two shots at your GC between this fiscal and the next one (due to continuing prospects of FB SO this year too). I would wait until atleast Sep 2022 if I were you considering all else being equal. Once you get your EAD/AP, you are at least 50% better off as your dependency on a non-immigrant visa is technically removed from the equation. For example, remember just by filing the I-485 you don't accrue unlawful presence if you lose your job and after 180 days you get the portability advantage too (see idliman's great summary above for more specifics). Answer to your first question - You don't lose your line in GC as you can re-apply correcting clerical errors (if any) as long as the underlying I-140 is intact. Lastly, I don't think anyone can predict and plan a scenario with future conservative admin etc. All we know is that the present admin. is definitely a positive development compared to the last one, therefore, next 4 years should be relatively calmer is a pragmatic expectation. Hope this helps.

Thank you for your prompt reply.Waiting till Sep 2022 seems pragmatic. I think I will end up doing that.

Good to know that I won't lose my line incase of clerical errors.phew!

About the spillover for 2022, won't the spillover only happen if there are closures till Sept 2021?If there are closures till March 2021, won't those numbers will be utilized due by FB applicants waiting since 2020?Just trying to understand how the numbers are utilized.

[may2011]

Visa get denied, if some error you will get RFE to fix any issue or additional detail.


Visa denied,Does that mean I can't reapply?

There is always a chance fo rule changes for every aspect of life; you shouldn't be fearful of those. If needed be ready to reach out to Senator / Congressmen / Advocacy grp when adverse bill is on docket. Worst case Judicial branch will step in, just like what happened to DACA.




This is something you have to decide. I have spent 18+ years on Visa; moved jobs ,purchased cars, houses, Traveled when I liked. I didn't compromised on my way of living just because I didn't have piece of paper saying I am LPR of US. If moving to Canada gives you piece of mind then do it. Your health and piece of mind is much much imp than LPR of US.

PS: No I never thought of having PR of Canada or Other countries. I will stay in US till job is good, willing to move to any part of world if I get good opportunity and my piece of mind.

Thanks for sharing your perspective

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Thank you for your prompt reply.Waiting till Sep 2022 seems pragmatic. I think I will end up doing that.

Good to know that I won't lose my line incase of clerical errors.phew!

About the spillover for 2022, won't the spillover only happen if there are closures till Sept 2021?If there are closures till March 2021, won't those numbers will be utilized due by FB applicants waiting since 2020?Just trying to understand how the numbers are utilized.

If the primary I-485 is rejected say after 2-3 months like what's happening right now, can it really be resubmitted when the Filing Dates are no longer being accepted?