EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rabp77]

Is there consensus within the forum that Horizontal spillover for EB2/EB3 is not being applied due to Trump EO? Because surely they are applying horizontal spillover for EB1 that has facilitated EB1I dates to move multiple years and on track to be current in next few months?

On a side note - 2012 AOS filer here as well with Feb 2010 priority date. Not a single RFE so far in last 9 years !
I did get an RFE for EAD renewal this year (they didn't like the pics we submitted). Somehow, that resulted in a 1 year EAD versus 2 year, which means I have to apply for renewal again next month.

so far i have not seen any data so far on pending EB1I applications for 2019. Given the lack of data, i am not in a position to conclusively say if the horizontal spillover has been applied or not for EB1I. If someone has i-140 data for EB1 for 2019, the that would likely give us a clue to comment on this.

[vsivarama]

so far i have not seen any data so far on pending EB1I applications for 2019. Given the lack of data, i am not in a position to conclusively say if the horizontal spillover has been applied or not for EB1I. If someone has i-140 data for EB1 for 2019, the that would likely give us a clue to comment on this.

I am not that sure, that horizontal spillover has been applied to EB1. The reason for aggressive movement in EB1 could be because they do not have many cases with approved I-140s with a pending 485 application where they can apply the available visa number. Anyone in EB1-I with priority dates past 09/30/18 was only allowed to file for 485 for the first time in Oct 2020 bulletin. The I140s for the EB1 petitions tend to take closer to a year if not more to adjudicate. Plus there is no premium processing available for expediting I140 processing for EB1C applications. My bet is they DO NOT have approved cases to use up the numbers in EB1 and so they are running up the dates to find any applications (EB1A/EB1B where premium processing is allowed). Gurus what do you think about the scenario I laid out? If this is true it could lead to a huge vertical spillover to EB2. But again, they need to be used and not wasted by USCIS, so that's that.

[phkb2020]

I am not that sure, that horizontal spillover has been applied to EB1. The reason for aggressive movement in EB1 could be because they do not have many cases with approved I-140s with a pending 485 application where they can apply the available visa number. Anyone in EB1-I with priority dates past 09/30/18 was only allowed to file for 485 for the first time in Oct 2020 bulletin. The I140s for the EB1 petitions tend to take closer to a year if not more to adjudicate. Plus there is no premium processing available for expediting I140 processing for EB1C applications. My bet is they DO NOT have approved cases to use up the numbers in EB1 and so they are running up the dates to find any applications (EB1A/EB1B where premium processing is allowed). Gurus what do you think about the scenario I laid out? If this is true it could lead to a huge vertical spillover to EB2. But again, they need to be used and not wasted by USCIS, so that's that.

Good point about lack of EB1 applications.

I am thinking the same, if horizontal spillover is not being applied to EB1 then EB2I should be in line for massive vertical and horizonal spillover in Q4. This means potential for even more wastage as UCSIS will have to pretty much process the entire 2020 FB spillover and 1/4th of EB quota in Q4.

This also begs the question - why did EB2I filing date move only one year compared multi year jump in EB3I - when EB2I would be the beneficiaries of any vertical spillover that may happen.

[usvisas]

USCIS started transferring pending 485 applications to local offices to adjudicate in timely fashion -- update by Immigration lawyer Robert weber in Linkedin
Good to hear. Link : https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobwebber

can't find any such content in his profile

[H1b2006]

can't find any such content in his profile

Check his recent activity, last 1 week.

[H1b2006]

If this is right untill oct 2021, there is no demand and as applications are getting approved eb1 I will retrogress in q1 2022

[08jul11]

My EB3 downgrade petition delivered on 10/29 at Texas lockbox; yet to get Receipt notice but checks got cashed yesterday 1/29... hurray!
Question I have is, does the 140 approval needed for EAD and AP approval?

[vsivarama]

My EB3 downgrade petition delivered on 10/29 at Texas lockbox; yet to get Receipt notice but checks got cashed yesterday 1/29... hurray!
Question I have is, does the 140 approval needed for EAD and AP approval?

No, EAD and AP are related to AOS (i-485) application. I-140 has no direct bearing on them. If however i-140 is denied for some reason, then i-485 is rejected as a result and thus voiding EAD and AP. So in short they can approve EAD and AP when i140 is still pending.

[08jul11]

No, EAD and AP are related to AOS (i-485) application. I-140 has no direct bearing on them. If however i-140 is denied for some reason, then i-485 is rejected as a result and thus voiding EAD and AP. So in short they can approve EAD and AP when i140 is still pending.

Thank you vsivarama.

[08jul11]

I've never been this relieved seeing my bank balance reduce!
USCIS finally picked up our file and processed fees on one of our applications.
It only took 85 days, fruitless chats with Emma and one automated email response from lockbox to get here.

PD: 30-Jun-2010 EB2-I
AOS/EAD/AP applied : 28-Oct-2020
Service Center: Lewisville Lockbox
Checks cashed: 21-Jan-2021
Receipt notice date: N/A

Hello.... have you got any further updates on your EAD/AP?

[bangaloreboy]

Hello.... have you got any further updates on your EAD/AP?

No, it has remained on "Fingerprint Fee Was Received" status since the day notice was generated

[AceMan]

No, it has remained on "Fingerprint Fee Was Received" status since the day notice was generated

I am in the same status since December 1st week.

[H1b2006]

Guys any idea how much % of 2010 EB2/EB3 are in fallout scenario either they moved backt to India for Good or to other countries, lost hopes and left or upgraded to EB1 and no longer in EB2/EB3.

out of 22K, I-140 Approvals for both EB2/EB3 can we say 15%

[Moveon]

With delays in confirming DHS secretary I am not sure if there will be any good movement in the March Bulletin . (https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/01/polit...hip/index.html)
Looks like its without direction and they may just continue with the Trump Admin policy to just stall. Unless the incoming secretary decides to start applying the SO immediately, there is no way they can issue 120K extra GCs in the last quarter . The only way out is to suspend GC interviews for EB categories. Even with that it is 40K extra GCs a month ! Has that ever been done in the past ?

[Zenzone]

With delays in confirming DHS secretary I am not sure if there will be any good movement in the March Bulletin . (https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/01/polit...hip/index.html)
Looks like its without direction and they may just continue with the Trump Admin policy to just stall. Unless the incoming secretary decides to start applying the SO immediately, there is no way they can issue 120K extra GCs in the last quarter . The only way out is to suspend GC interviews for EB categories. Even with that it is 40K extra GCs a month ! Has that ever been done in the past ?

Your article also says that there is a confirmation vote scheduled for tomorrow and the postponement is due to the winter storm. So what's the real issue here? Am I missing anything?

[Moveon]

Your article also says that there is a confirmation vote scheduled for tomorrow and the postponement is due to the winter storm. So what's the real issue here? Am I missing anything?

The confirmation should have happened a week ago but then the republicans opposed it due to the border wall issue (Dems will not fund it). It will take time for him to get to employment visa issues as right now the focus of the admin is to get the "undocumented" folks Green cards. I am really doubtful if he will ever get to EB cases for this bulletin.
While I have my PD in December and stand a very good chance of getting the GC this fiscal , I would want every GC to be issued as those in 2010-11 deserve to get one this fiscal . Its criminal to waste GCs . From what I read 18800 GCs went waste last year .

[AceMan]

The confirmation should have happened a week ago but then the republicans opposed it due to the border wall issue (Dems will not fund it). It will take time for him to get to employment visa issues as right now the focus of the admin is to get the "undocumented" folks Green cards. I am really doubtful if he will ever get to EB cases for this bulletin.
While I have my PD in December and stand a very good chance of getting the GC this fiscal , I would want every GC to be issued as those in 2010-11 deserve to get one this fiscal . Its criminal to waste GCs . From what I read 18800 GCs went waste last year .

The outlook was USCIS would be short by 25000, looks like they could issue about 138,000 visa's. Considering the pandemic related office closures, it was a decent enough effort.

Now the Secretary is not going to personally cross the t's and dot the i's of individual application forms. Whoever comes in will do the job he has to do.

We have enough people among ourselves who continuously apply for Premium 140's when the law states they cannot do premium without the original perm. It is a back door option being used up. With finite resources some body else will be impacted with these actions. Couple of years back there was a rule making in progress to stop concurrent filing, but it is not going to happen anymore.

Yes, I recall the discussions back in 2010's when EB3 was referred as unskilled visa's by the EB2 experts. So love to remind every single Eb2 person who has downgraded that they really should have been in Eb3 to start with. Nothing malicious but just light hearted taunting like one prisoner to another one.

[Palver]

Does anyone have stats on what % of cases get called for an interview for EB cases? Has it been close to 100% since the change in process starting 2017?

[rabp77]

Does anyone have stats on what % of cases get called for an interview for EB cases? Has it been close to 100% since the change in process starting 2017?

Yes. This had been close to 100% from 2017 till Covid hit. After which we have been seeing some cases where interview was wavered.

[rabp77]

regarding horizontal spillover. it looks like USCIS has been evenly distributing the unused visas from ROW equally to all backlogged countries (rather that putting everything to most backlogged). This will likely not help EBI, but still we should see a substancial horizontal spillover sometime this FY.

[Moveon]

Yes. This had been close to 100% from 2017 till Covid hit. After which we have been seeing some cases where interview was wavered.

Rabp77 , I understand that interview is waived for those who applied for AOS before 2017? So most EB-I cases would be exempt if that is the case right

[AceMan]

regarding horizontal spillover. it looks like USCIS has been evenly distributing the unused visas from ROW equally to all backlogged countries (rather that putting everything to most backlogged). This will likely not help EBI, but still we should see a substancial horizontal spillover sometime this FY.

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

[rocketfast]

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

They may have given out numbers for EB1, but USCIS definitely has not approved EB1s overwhelmingly based on trackitt data for the last 4 months.

EB2: 101
EB3 = 124
EB1 = 62

(Unless, EB1 guys have enmasse moved away from trackitt to telegram)

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigra...ackers/i485-eb

[phkb2020]

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

Not doubting you, but could you please point me towards this law? As far as I know, EB1 only gets first dibs on rollups of EB4 and EB5 spillover. The family spillover has been distributed evenly according to respective EB quotas and horizontal spillovers should be applied at the same time across all categories.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

But, I won't be surprised if what you are predicting happens. It is baffling that EB1I seems to have gotten the benefit of horizontal spillovers being applied in Q1 & Q2 while EB2 and EB3 languish forever and hope and pray for max utilization in Q4.

[kumareb2]

is anyone renewed their EAD card recently? I got my EAD in 2012( EB2 Feb filing), and ever since the USCIS issued two years combo card, but this time they approved for one-year. is this new normal now?