EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Yes , the current VB is so unfair. They now have just 7 months (hoping that the March VB will move dates) to utilize the spillover and there is a good chance that the GCs will go waste unless they are preparing the machinery to print 10000's of extra GCs in the coming months. There is no one really to champion the cause of legal immigration .
I am still optimistic that the Biden administration will fund the USCIS to prevent the wastage of GCs . Anyone in the Oakland area has contacts with Vice President Kamala Harris ? It might help putting in a word to help move the files and prevent wastage of GCs . She is from the Bay area and will be more sympathetic to the legal immigrants as she is associated with the tech industry .

All those in the Big Tech companies of the bay area , Please try to contact your HR, C-level execs and request them to call the offices of Pelosi and Harris asking them to not wastes GCs. We are not asking for any extra GCs or favors , just requesting the USCIS/DOS to do their basic job. Most Tech companies are associated with Pelosi/Harris , so a call will help.

If someone can help craft a professional letter explaining the situation, we can use that to reach out to our execs. They calling the office will have a 1000x more impact than us calling in

I don't post or watch trackitt that much but are any EB1s getting GCs issued? I would understand (against the protests of the EB1C haters) if they are giving priority to first wipe out the EB1 backlog, then EB2 and EB3. But hopefully they are actually consuming and issuing the GCs to those who are current in a reasonable timeline.

[Moveon]

Guys , lets take politics on a different thread please . Lets focus our energies on what can be done with what we have to move the dates and trash the politicians on a diff thread. Honestly we are wasting our time as they are so thick skinned that they don't care for anything except getting reelected .
My request will be for us to reach out to our C-level execs to use their contacts with Pelosi/Harris as they will always pick a call from the big guys. We are not asking for any favors, just requesting that the USCIS does its basic job. Imagine what a call from Sundar Pichai or Satya Nadela or Shantanu Narayen or Mark Z to them do . Sundar/Satya/Shantanu are immigrants who have been through this and can help .

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

So filing dates are continuing to not being accepted for Feb bulletin so confirms that they have enough backlog to work with.

There is already gridlock between Schumer and McConnell in the Senate which was predictable with such a narrow majority. Democrats leading with a massive comprehensive bill is not going to go anywhere. I don't know how many times they will try the same thing over and over again. Democrats will hold legal immigration hostage for DACA and Asylees. Republicans will hold DACA and Asylees for legal immigration.

My short term view is that it's not going to get done looking at previous attempts to pass comprehensive immigration reform. There is no way 17 Republican Senators are going to sign up for a Comprehensive IR bill. And Democrats are not going to budge on piecemeal immigration reform since they know DACA will never become law that way. Let's watch what transpires in the next few months.

[newyorker123]

Given the Senate stalemate, what can potentially be done via executive order ?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Given the Senate stalemate, what can potentially be done via executive order ?

In my opinion only, anything that they do to reduce EB backlogs by Executive Action will likely be struck down in the courts no matter what Siskind or Cyrus M keep harping about. All their creative accounting of not counting dependents, recapturing old visas etc. are all wishful thinking. And above everything else, the only Executive Action as regards to immigration which is well known and has survived is DACA. I don't think the Admin is going to take any Executive Action to reduce backlogs. The DACA population may only be around 800k, but they have a foothold and a voice in the mainstream discussion and massive clout among all advocates in the public and in Congress. For EB, we have IV who make websites to call sitting Senators racist that is still up. Good luck finding some empathy.

[vedu]

Given the Senate stalemate, what can potentially be done via executive order ?

We don't need any new executive orders, bills, etc. All we need is new admin's SINCERE WILL to use 100% of the visas available for this year and next year. Much of the backlog can be cleared if this one thing is done properly. And there are no R's or D's stopping that. We need to give new admin time to prove their credibility in this regard. If it doesn't happen, then sooner or later people will start doubting the new admin's intent on this very forum...you will see!

I like what Moveon is suggesting we should focus on to make this happen.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I hope the USCIS officials in the new Admin sack up and release an updating pending I-485 inventory. At least that will set the stage to argue the level of processing backlogs that have strangled the system and prompt further action to fully utilize every visa for FY2021.

[Moveon]

We don't need any new executive orders, bills, etc. All we need is new admin's SINCERE WILL to use 100% of the visas available for this year and next year. Much of the backlog can be cleared if this one thing is done properly. And there are no R's or D's stopping that. We need to give new admin time to prove their credibility in this regard. If it doesn't happen, then sooner or later people will start doubting the new admin's intent on this very forum...you will see!

I like what Moveon is suggesting we should focus on to make this happen.

Thanks Vedu. Executive Action , Passing of bills etc are not going to happen for legal immigration, we have seen this for the last 15 years . If some of you are working in Google, MSFT, Adobe , Facebook, Amazon etc then you can request your HR to escalate upto the CEOs . These companies are sympathetic to such causes and can help pressurize the admin to get the ball rolling . Again , we are only requesting the USCIS to do its job of issuing GCs which they are duty bound to and nothing extra .
These CEO's (or CEOs of any big company in any country ) wield immense power in the corridors of power and this will be the simplest of favors for them to request .

Also adding insult to injury , EB-2I actually has move by only 2 days and not 4 as 10 and 11th are Saturday and Sunday . Must be some dedicated sadists in the USCIS.

[texas_]

Dear all,

After filing 485, when am I able to switch employer ? I know it's 180 days but is 180 days starts from the date USCIS received my I-485 form?

Also, Do I need to get Suppliment J form from my employer and file myself or my employer directly file Suppliment- J form directly with USCIS ?

Please guide gurus;

[Moveon]

Dear all,

After filing 485, when am I able to switch employer ? I know it's 180 days but is 180 days starts from the date USCIS received my I-485 form?

Also, Do I need to get Suppliment J form from my employer and file myself or my employer directly file Suppliment- J form directly with USCIS ?

Please guide gurus;

Yes Date of filing/ Date they receive
Plz ,use the company lawyer to use the right codes and job description to avoid rejection

[texas_]

Thanks Moveon.
is it ok to get the Suppliment J from the new employer and file it with my attorney who initially filed my GC ?

Or Suppliment J form needed to sent by new employer only ??

Please guide

[bookworm]

Thanks Moveon.
is it ok to get the Suppliment J from the new employer and file it with my attorney who initially filed my GC ?

Or Suppliment J form needed to sent by new employer only ??

Please guide

485J is supposed to be filed by applicant. You or your lawyer can file it. Review of the same by your company lawyer depends on your HR policies.

Having said that there are 2 schools of thoughts;

1. Provide USCIS what they ask for. i.e. file 485J if you get a RFE.
2. Proactively provide 485J in the hopes that it speeds up things.

Both have its merits.

[cool_dude]

People were expecting relief on the way, but are now completely shocked. The sick joke is previous admin used to give us this kind of movement last year even without this massive spillover, and people used to accuse them of wasting 25,000/30,000 visas. The real insult will be in the next visa bulletin when there will be "up to two weeks of movement" out of which there will be two Saturdays and two Sundays. That time no matter how twisted logic you use, you won't be able to blame it on previous admin.

If you think for a minute...you will realize that the previous admin has actually delivered the goods despite their so called "nasty" intent towards immigrants by providing massive spillover and EADs to thousands of backlogged people. They also ensured massive spillover for the next year. Now, the ball is in the new admin's court. They need to deliver the goods with their "good" intent towards immigrants by using 100% of these visas that are made available to them to distribute.

Last admin did not really deliver spillover...it was just side effect of covid restrictions.They actually made everything harder including mandatory interviews.They did not really fix immigration issues.

[texas_]

Thanks Bookworm.

This helps. I got an email response from the new employer where I may think to join as a full time stating the Hiring Manager would need to suffice the 485J form and Once I receive it from them I need to work with my own attorney to file 485J proactively.

Thanks all for your help. EAD is definitely a privilege then if you are working solely using EAD and not using H1B at all

[idliman]

Dear all,

1. After filing 485, when am I able to switch employer ? I know it's 180 days but is 180 days starts from the date USCIS received my I-485 form?

2. Also, Do I need to get Suppliment J form from my employer and file myself or my employer directly file Suppliment- J form directly with USCIS ?

Please guide gurus;

To avail AC21 protections, your I-485 needs to be pending for 180 days and should meet all conditions for approval / pre-adjudication (Valid PERM, approved I-140, No fraud, etc.,)

1. The 180 days is based on calendar days (not business days). The clock starts with the ?Received Date? of your I-485 application, as indicated in your I-797 receipt notice.
2. After 180 days you need to get the I-485J form from the new employer. There is also a section to justify why the new job is in the "same or similar" category. OR attorneys will prepare a separate sheet with detailed job description and title of the new position. You can file it yourself or ask the attorney from the new job. I485J requires a signature from the HR / Manger in the new job position as they are attesting that a new job is available for you in their company. You will get a new receipt notice for I485J and also be able to track whether it was approved or not.

You can use your own attorney to file I-485J. That way you can better justify "same or similar" position requirement. However the signature must be from company side and they will most likely involve their attorneys.

[bookworm]

Thanks Bookworm.

This helps. I got an email response from the new employer where I may think to join as a full time stating the Hiring Manager would need to suffice the 485J form and Once I receive it from them I need to work with my own attorney to file 485J proactively.

Thanks all for your help. EAD is definitely a privilege then if you are working solely using EAD and not using H1B at all

Be careful with the SOC code and JD. Involve your lawyer before you switch. If your hiring manager is willing to support you he could expand some of the "other duties" to align with your previous JD.

Your best friend in 485J is you. You need to prove how new JD is close to the old JD. My personal experience is that Lawyers and HR dont understand the functional aspects of the job so they interpret things literally. Your job is to translate their feedback into action items on the JD. Most of us are hired in same or similar occupation. Tricky part is convincing the AO that the paperwork supports it.

Good luck and god speed!

[texas_]

Thanks Brother

[texas_]

Thanks for you inputs. I believe if we hire experienced attorneys 485J is their day to day activity and can draft JD that matches the old JD

What do you think?

[bookworm]

Thanks for you inputs. I believe if we hire experienced attorneys 485J is their day to day activity and can draft JD that matches the old JD

What do you think?

Is your new employer a large org or a smaller org? Having a experienced attorney helps but they are expensive. The biggest hurdle in my experience is HR. If you can navigate that then you are as good as gold. Usually your hiring manager has a big role to play in detailing your duties. So make this a part of your hiring process and you will have an easier time later on. Once you are in you have limited leverage.

[Moveon]

This post does huge disservice to readers of this forum so I have to now intervene and set things straight.

1) Biden administration at this time is 2 days old. Their nominees are yet to be confirmed (thanks to lack of cooperation from previous administration). So to pin a visa bulletin on them at this stage is quite inappropriate.
2) Under all previous administrations in recent memory (Bush / Obama and then Trump) spillover has always happened May onwards. So until then the date movement is always extremely restricted for backlogged countries.
3) The previous administration was totally anti immigrant - legal or illegal did not matter. Any spillover from family to EB is completely accidental (thanks to COVID) and required by LAW. So there is nothing they did. One can write an entire essay on how many things they have done to make life difficult for all immigrants.

It is natural to have political inclination but these are simply wrong and harmful arguments.

Q , I am in complete agreement with you . I had mentioned in the first post today that I am very optimistic about the new administration moving the dates and this VB was formalized during the prev admin. It seems to be the one last attempt to screw us just for sadistic pleasure.
Anyway we will still need to get a word to the current "people in power" of our plight and the urgency to issue the GCs before September. Thankfully there is no legislation or EO to be passed . So , the Admin just needs to prioritize this task and someone needs to tell them that , else it will get drowned in the illegal immigrants talk .

[vedu]

Q , I am in complete agreement with you . I had mentioned in the first post today that I am very optimistic about the new administration moving the dates and this VB was formalized during the prev admin. It seems to be the one last attempt to screw us just for sadistic pleasure.
Anyway we will still need to get a word to the current "people in power" of our plight and the urgency to issue the GCs before September. Thankfully there is no legislation or EO to be passed . So , the Admin just needs to prioritize this task and someone needs to tell them that , else it will get drowned in the illegal immigrants talk .

Actually, you are in disagreement with Q. If you read carefully, what Q is saying is that "spillover has always happened May onwards, so until then the date movement is always extremely restricted for backlogged countries". And that's the HARD TRUTH. So, political differences aside, blaming any admin (old/new) for the visa bulletins in first couple of quarters is wrong.

[rabp77]

Whats surprising is no one asks why does it need to be this way? Is application of spillover May onwards helping achieve the spirit of the law? Shouldnt an immigrant friendly admin have a plan that is better than a repeat of what has been done (& failed) before? I mean, we are issuing EOs to allow folks sitting in other countries come to USA but cant fix the USCIS Lockbox processing for receipts?

I may sound PO but that is because I can see lot of wastage happening in Sept. Genuinely hope that I am wrong and Biden-Harris are able to achieve what they are capable of.

We need to make a distinction between spillover from FB-> EB, and horizontal and vertial spillover within EB.

FB->EB is applied immediately at the start of the year. This spillover is spread to all countries, so the impact on any individual country is not much. However, they have been cautious applying horizontal and vertical spillover within EB, and have applied the horizontal spillover only towarads the end of the year. Although we know based on history this spillover is likely to be big, they have been extremely cautious just in case there is an unexpected surge in applications from ROW. So the cautious approach has its valid reasons and is in keeping with how its been done before, and the spirit of the law which allows horizontal spillover only after its certain it will not be used by ROW.

The good thing is if the applications have been adjudicated, the approval process is actually very quick once the dates are current. So the biggest factor now is just how quickly the cases are pre-adjudicated. If its like previous years, there should be an increase in pace of movement in the later half or last quarter.

[idliman]

Thanks for you inputs. I believe if we hire experienced attorneys 485J is their day to day activity and can draft JD that matches the old JD

What do you think?

Boss, it is not a Rocket Science and does not require an experienced attorney. If I were you, I will collect the approved PERM and match the SOC exactly and Title as much as possible. That is 50% or more of the "same or similar" justification. Then look at the job description in your PERM and make sure that you capture two or three points from that. That's it.

I work in a core engineering field. So a "Mechanical Engineer" cannot do an AC21 to a "Electrical Engineer" or "Civil Engineer". However there are Structural engineers in both Civil, Mechanical or Electrical Packaging side. Just match SOC and Job title as much as possible. Imagine you as an adjudicating officer who has no idea of what your IT position is. The AO is going to look for some common language to be comfortable to approve your I485J application. If you pay big bucks and hire an experienced attorney, they can probably justify that all are "Engineers" and eligible for AC21. It all depends on your situation.

That's why I have repeated a few times that everyone needs to have a copy of their PERM for later use in AC21. That helps a lot in AC21. You probably can write an excellent justification yourself and pass it on to your attorney as a start.

Also everyone needs to have the confidence to do an immigration form. Imagine a paralegal who is assisting an attorney. While most are excellent, there are some in the beginning stage and can do a lot of mistakes. It is our applications / forms and we need to make sure that we go through everything. I have asked for corrections in forms prepared even by an experienced attorney. You are paying for their services so your should make sure that the end product is worth it.

[phkb2020]

So how is spillover supposed to work? I know inventory data is non existent since last 2-3 years, but can the number crunching gurus in the forum have an idea (using Trackitt/PERM/USCIS annual data) to make sense of the pre May 2011 demand for EB2I & EB3I?

Going back to spillover question - Are horizontal spillovers applied quarterly or in Q4? EB1I has moved multiple years in matter of months - if USCIS/DHS is not applying horizontal spillover - then does it mean that there is virtually no EB1I demand and all demand is being satisfied by 7% country quota EB1I numbers (~5200). If this is true then EB2I should see bumper movement in Q4 - which also means massive wastage as the admin wont be able to process all applications in time.

I think we are seeing horizonal spillover is being applied, which then begs the question why EB2I is not getting the benefit of similar spillovers? Surely there isn't such a huge demand to EB2I dates that only allowed the movement of a couple of months after application of Q1 horizontal spillover !

[bookworm]

We need to make a distinction between spillover from FB-> EB, and horizontal and vertial spillover within EB.

FB->EB is applied immediately at the start of the year. This spillover is spread to all countries, so the impact on any individual country is not much. However, they have been cautious applying horizontal and vertical spillover within EB, and have applied the horizontal spillover only towarads the end of the year. Although we know based on history this spillover is likely to be big, they have been extremely cautious just in case there is an unexpected surge in applications from ROW. So the cautious approach has its valid reasons and is in keeping with how its been done before, and the spirit of the law which allows horizontal spillover only after its certain it will not be used by ROW.

The good thing is if the applications have been adjudicated, the approval process is actually very quick once the dates are current. So the biggest factor now is just how quickly the cases are pre-adjudicated. If its like previous years, there should be an increase in pace of movement in the later half or last quarter.

Thank you Rab for the reminder of the process. I agree that there is a reason to be cautious at USCIS. However this approach ignores historical data or any kind of forecasting.

At present folks who became current in Oct & Nov are still waiting for RFEs. Folks who have responded to RFEs in Nov & Dec time frame are waiting for a decision. It indicates that USCIS takes on an average 4 months to process after dated become current. This is based on normal demand patterns.

OTOH there are no environmental factors that seem to suggest a surge in EB ROW filings.

Assuming processing capacity is a constant it really seems impossible that USCIS will rise upto the challenge of processing a record number of GCs in Q3 & Q4 of FY 21.

On a lighter note - the race is between getting the Vaccine and GC (in some cases EAD renewal receipts).