EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[inspired_p]

A bit off-topic: Is there Premium processing now for EB2 NIW ?

No. Unfortunately there is no premium processing for EB2 NIW applications, it takes around 9 months for approval.

[newyorker123]

No. Unfortunately there is no premium processing for EB2 NIW applications, it takes around 9 months for approval.

Thanks; I inferred the same. I thought this was a done deal as per the Oct 2020 order, and it was just a matter of time when this is finalized. But now with the Biden admin, who knows!

[idliman]

Thanks Idliman for the response. But in my case it is my previous employer who filed my 485, not the current employer. So i guess i have to go back to work for him either after my EAD approval or after getting GC. Thanks again.

I see only two potential issues in your case.

1. Validity of I-140: If the I-140 has been approved, my concern will be whether the employer will withdraw it before you reach the 180 day limit. In this case, your I-485 will be rejected. After, 180 days even if the employer withdraws I-140, AC21 protects you. Now, if the I-140 is not approved even for 180 days after filing I-485, then it is a "grey area". A crafty attorney can save you in that situation.
2. Potential Fraud of not working for sponsoring employer: As far as I know there is no legal requirement to work for the sponsor at the time of filing the LC or I-140 or I-485 is pending. EB GCs are based on future job offer. Will USCIS raise the issue of whether initial offer in LC / LC employer was valid or bona fide? The best proof of a job offer is working for the employer who sponsors your PERM / I-140. Filing a future job offer, without working for the employer and later using AC21 to move to a new employer can raise intent related questions or potential fraud or misrepresentation.

I want to tell my version of the truth as it is without sugar coating. If you want to take a risk and get through the first 180 days go ahead. With the current workload of USCIS, it would easily be 180 days before they start paying attention to your application.

I keep repeating this like a preacher multiple times in this forum. The key is the first 180 days after the receipt date.

Good Luck.

[bangaloreboy]

I've never been this relieved seeing my bank balance reduce!
USCIS finally picked up our file and processed fees on one of our applications.
It only took 85 days, fruitless chats with Emma and one automated email response from lockbox to get here.

PD: 30-Jun-2010 EB2-I
AOS/EAD/AP applied : 28-Oct-2020
Service Center: Lewisville Lockbox
Checks cashed: 21-Jan-2021
Receipt notice date: N/A

[mesan123]

I've never been this relieved seeing my bank balance reduce!
USCIS finally picked up our file and processed fees on one of our applications.
It only took 85 days, fruitless chats with Emma and one automated email response from lockbox to get here.

PD: 30-Jun-2010 EB2-I
AOS/EAD/AP applied : 28-Oct-2020
Service Center: Lewisville Lockbox
Checks cashed: 21-Jan-2021
Receipt notice date: N/A

Congratulations... good relief...

[mohan_jgd]

I've never been this relieved seeing my bank balance reduce!
USCIS finally picked up our file and processed fees on one of our applications.
It only took 85 days, fruitless chats with Emma and one automated email response from lockbox to get here.

PD: 30-Jun-2010 EB2-I
AOS/EAD/AP applied : 28-Oct-2020
Service Center: Lewisville Lockbox
Checks cashed: 21-Jan-2021
Receipt notice date: N/A

Thats a big relief. Still waiting on my end. Hopefully soon as my application has been filed on 10/29.

[KB8765]

Thats a big relief. Still waiting on my end. Hopefully soon as my application has been filed on 10/29.

Yes it was a long nervous wait and sleepless nights just for Receipt. Mine was submitted on 10/29 too and got receipts numbers yesterday from Emma Chat. Dont worry you will get it soon.

Not sure how long of a wait it will be for the next step.

[mohan_jgd]

Yes it was a long nervous wait and sleepless nights just for Receipt. Mine was submitted on 10/29 too and got receipts numbers yesterday from Emma Chat. Dont worry you will get it soon.

Not sure how long of a wait it will be for the next step.

Cool. I did try on Emma chat yesterday too, but was told that i am not in the system yet. Will try again early next week.

[bookworm]

Some authoritative explanation of the method behind the madness (New for me. Pardon if gurus already know this)

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...ation%20of.pdf

Is this the reason we see spurt in approvals in beginning of the month and then zero movement in the last 2 weeks of the month?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Would be nice for the new admin to release a good VB tomorrow so that we can talk more about future predictions rather than receipt notices on this thread!

[gayathrianil]

Thanks Idliman, my I140 was approved approx 9 yrs back, i worked with my previous employer for 10 yrs , not sure if they count that , but i dont have any issue working with them for 6 more months. Just wanted to see when i can join and if i can use AP without joining them (before joining them).

[srisri]

VB out EB2-I moved to 12th Oct 2009. That’s effectively 2 days movement considering the weekend.

[Maxray]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2021.html

Eb1-4months
Eb2-4day
Eb3-9days

[idliman]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2021.html

Eb1-4months
Eb2-4day
Eb3-9days

Whether Rama rules or Ravana Rules, back-logger's still be backlogged.

The good news is EB1I moved 4 months and has reached 2020. Considering 3 months movement at a time EB1 should be current in 3 or 4 bulletins. That should open spillover to EB2I floodgates. I think we all should go dormant/sleep for another 3 months and come back to revisit this somewhere in June or July of 2021.

Another angle is that the VBs are finalized typically in the first week of the month. Maybe we should be hopeful and give the rulers another chance next month.

[AceMan]

Whether Rama rules or Ravana Rules, back-logger's still be backlogged.

The good news is EB1I moved 4 months and has reached 2020. Considering 3 months movement at a time EB1 should be current in 3 or 4 bulletins. That should open spillover to EB2I floodgates. I think we all should go dormant/sleep for another 3 months and come back to revisit this somewhere in June or July of 2021.

Another angle is that the VBs are finalized typically in the first week of the month. Maybe we should be hopeful and give the rulers another chance next month.

:-D Give Biden time to settle in. It is not even 2 days since he became the President. Let us look at the April bulletin to see if the new administration changes are up to the speed with expectation. EB1 has reached January 2020, considering the low applicant resultant of covid impact from March 2020, Eb1 India can be current by April 2021 bulletin.

[bookworm]

Whether Rama rules or Ravana Rules, back-logger's still be backlogged.

The good news is EB1I moved 4 months and has reached 2020. Considering 3 months movement at a time EB1 should be current in 3 or 4 bulletins. That should open spillover to EB2I floodgates. I think we all should go dormant/sleep for another 3 months and come back to revisit this somewhere in June or July of 2021.

Another angle is that the VBs are finalized typically in the first week of the month. Maybe we should be hopeful and give the rulers another chance next month.

The question comes down to USCIS ability to process thousands of cases in 4 to 5 months time. Based on historical pattern it seems improbable that they will be able to accomplish that.

Right now TSC hasnt even looked at PD that went current in Nov. OTOH NSC keeps sending RFEs but limited CPO. Points to a lack of capacity to deal with a four fold increase in Q3 & Q4 due to spillover. IIRC same thing happened in 2012 except we were discussing 2007 folks then and now we are discussing 2009 & 2010 folks.

[AlmostThere]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2021.html

Eb1-4months
Eb2-4day
Eb3-9days

From Feb Bulletin, so looks like future is slow!
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First:
India: Up to six months

Employment Second:
India: Up to two weeks

Employment Third:
India: Up to three weeks

[Zenzone]

:-D Give Biden time to settle in. It is not even 2 days since he became the President. Let us look at the April bulletin to see if the new administration changes are up to the speed with expectation. EB1 has reached January 2020, considering the low applicant resultant of covid impact from March 2020, Eb1 India can be current by April 2021 bulletin.

I agree. I think there should be definite fwd. movement starting March.

[Zenzone]

AceMan,

Yes, I read that post and it does make sense to me. And I wasn't picking on you. I just used your post to express my feelings.

In this D's vs R's battle and the resultant status quo, any bad news is actually good news and any good news is actually bad. I said this before also. One doesn't have to be genius to figure that out. Zenzone got his chance at EAD, because the bad news of family visa ban due to COVID was actually a good news for him. And I am not even being insensitive about it. I personally lost my dear ones in this pandemic. But this is the TRUTH!

Sorry to hear about your loss! I didn't mean to imply that Covid is a blessing either, I understand the trauma this pandemic has caused to many of us.

[phkb2020]

Whether Rama rules or Ravana Rules, back-logger's still be backlogged.

The good news is EB1I moved 4 months and has reached 2020. Considering 3 months movement at a time EB1 should be current in 3 or 4 bulletins. That should open spillover to EB2I floodgates. I think we all should go dormant/sleep for another 3 months and come back to revisit this somewhere in June or July of 2021.

Another angle is that the VBs are finalized typically in the first week of the month. Maybe we should be hopeful and give the rulers another chance next month.

Long time lurker here. Just created an account !

Obviously with Feb 2010 priority date, I was hoping to see more movement than this.
But please explain to me what I am missing here? I am seeing a lot of posts hoping for EB2 movement in April/May. Is this due to the expectation that EB1I will go current and vertical spillover to EB2I?
But what about horizonal spillover? EB2 is scheduled to get 70K+ visas and with EB2ROW current since last year, shouldn't horizontal spillover be applied quarterly? With EB3I also in 2010s there shouldn't be any porting happening to keep EB2I dates where they are?

[asankaran]

Hi Folks,
My priority date is around last week of March 2010 EB2. Now that I see EB3 moving to April 2010, is it wise idea to downport from EB2 to EB3 or wait it out. I have EAD and have moved out from employer who sponsored my GC. If someone has already answered this or if there is another thread please point me to that.

Thanks!

[AceMan]

AceMan,

Yes, I read that post and it does make sense to me. And I wasn't picking on you. I just used your post to express my feelings.

In this D's vs R's battle and the resultant status quo, any bad news is actually good news and any good news is actually bad. I said this before also. One doesn't have to be genius to figure that out. Zenzone got his chance at EAD, because the bad news of family visa ban due to COVID was actually a good news for him. And I am not even being insensitive about it. I personally lost my dear ones in this pandemic. But this is the TRUTH!

It is painful to lose a family member due to Covid. My condolences.

[EB22010Dec]

vb - https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2021.html

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Just seeing the VB, and it is such a dampener heading into the weekend! Just amazing that they just keep moving EB1 by huge chunks and let EB2 languish like this for a decade. Saving grace is that ROW is current. With EB1 India likely current (DF is still being honored until Nov 2020), EB2 should get massive spillovers vertically and horizontally and EB3 will at least get horizontal spillover. Hang in there everyone, this is not going to be overnight. It will probably be July or something until we start seeing the full effects.

[Moveon]

Just seeing the VB, and it is such a dampener heading into the weekend! Just amazing that they just keep moving EB1 by huge chunks and let EB2 languish like this for a decade. Saving grace is that ROW is current. With EB1 India likely current (DF is still being honored until Nov 2020), EB2 should get massive spillovers vertically and horizontally and EB3 will at least get horizontal spillover. Hang in there everyone, this is not going to be overnight. It will probably be July or something until we start seeing the full effects.

Yes , the current VB is so unfair. They now have just 7 months (hoping that the March VB will move dates) to utilize the spillover and there is a good chance that the GCs will go waste unless they are preparing the machinery to print 10000's of extra GCs in the coming months. There is no one really to champion the cause of legal immigration .
I am still optimistic that the Biden administration will fund the USCIS to prevent the wastage of GCs . Anyone in the Oakland area has contacts with Vice President Kamala Harris ? It might help putting in a word to help move the files and prevent wastage of GCs . She is from the Bay area and will be more sympathetic to the legal immigrants as she is associated with the tech industry .

All those in the Big Tech companies of the bay area , Please try to contact your HR, C-level execs and request them to call the offices of Pelosi and Harris asking them to not wastes GCs. We are not asking for any extra GCs or favors , just requesting the USCIS/DOS to do their basic job. Most Tech companies are associated with Pelosi/Harris , so a call will help.

If someone can help craft a professional letter explaining the situation, we can use that to reach out to our execs. They calling the office will have a 1000x more impact than us calling in