EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[samada]

I received RFE from TSC for Medicals, 485J and 325A.

EB2I 11 September 2009.

[bluelabel]

I could not see anyone from TSC. Do you know people from TSC getting RFE's? If TSC is sending RFE's then I will believe. Please remember that NSC already did one or two rounds of RFEs for all pending EB2I's till May 2010.

My PD is March 2nd 2010 EB2I and i did not receive any RFE yet but one of my old colleague who has same priority date and filed I-485 at the same time as me got RFE. We both are at NSC and received RFE in 2018.

[samada]

I could not see anyone from TSC. Do you know people from TSC getting RFE's? If TSC is sending RFE's then I will believe. Please remember that NSC already did one or two rounds of RFEs for all pending EB2I's till May 2010.

I received RFE a week ago from TSC

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Obviously no visa bulletin today which I believe is a good thing. Can you guys believe it? We are at the end of the LAST FRIDAY of this MISERABLE PRESIDENCY! Hope for a better bulletin from the next Admin, if not the Feb, at least the March one.

I wish everyone here a lot better immigration fortune at least for the next 2 years and hope for the best for the midterms.

[mcmilers]

I agree. let's hope the new admin brings a decent amount of relief for the backlogged community and EB immigration isn't a black hole anymore.

And we see a positive VB next week...We can only hope...

[superuser]

hello Gurus,

My company has filed my EB3 downgrade application on 30th December. At moment, I am waiting for the receipt notice. I see many lawyers out there recommending filing premium processing for downgrade only after receipt notice to be on a safer side.

I need to provide justification to my employer for the premium processing if I want to opt that. would you please help me understand what's the exact benefit of getting premium processing for EB3 I-140 downgrade?

Thanks You!

[rainmaker12]

Biometric appointments cancelled for Jan 19 and 20. USCIS probably expecting some events on inauguration day.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-jan-19-and-20

[vsivarama]

hello Gurus,

I need to provide justification to my employer for the premium processing if I want to opt that. would you please help me understand what's the exact benefit of getting premium processing for EB3 I-140 downgrade?

Thanks You!

There is not much benefit, other than that you can move on with your life once i-140 is approved. In case of the rare case of rejection some people would rather want that now than a year later. You can have some mental peace if you want to ditch H1 for good and move on to EAD (a tad bit riskier while your i140 is pending). The only other thing that I can think of is (rare chance), if your FAD becomes current, your GC will not be approved if i140 is pending adjudication.

[idliman]

I received RFE a week ago from TSC

Congrats on getting your RFE. Glad to see that TSC folks are getting RFEs. NSC works on its own. A couple of years back they sent RFEs to everyone with pending I485 requesting updated medicals. Those might have expired. From what I have seen NSC had sent more RFEs to keep their files current. That's why I wanted to hear from TSC folks.

TSC on the other hand is like a black hole. There are people who have not received any RFEs since their files were pre adjudicated in 2012. If many people from TSC get RFE's then it is definitely positive. It is a good indication of things to come.

[idliman]

There is not much benefit, other than that you can move on with your life once i-140 is approved. In case of the rare case of rejection some people would rather want that now than a year later. You can have some mental peace if you want to ditch H1 for good and move on to EAD (a tad bit riskier while your i140 is pending). The only other thing that I can think of is (rare chance), if your FAD becomes current, your GC will not be approved if i140 is pending adjudication.

superuser: I agree with the moderator. If your EB3 FA PD is current or close to being current, definitely go for premium processing. On the other hand if your PD is somewhere in 2014, I don't see the benefit of Premium Processing. I think I-140 takes about 6 months to approve now-a-days. Things will speed up once the JB admin take charge of things.

If you are not with the same employer, same job and same service center, then USCIS will not accept premium processing. So they get the receipt notice first and then file premium processing.

[superuser]

Thank you idliman and vsivarama for your wonderful help. My priority data is 25-aug-2011. does it fall in the category of "close to current"?

[ak7419]

My case is being processed at NSC whereas my spouse's case is being processed at TSC. None of us received RFE. Is that normal for the cases to be in different service centers?

[vsivarama]

Thank you idliman and vsivarama for your wonderful help. My priority data is 25-aug-2011. does it fall in the category of "close to current"?

Well this is just my opinion so take it for what it is. Though I cannot tell you what to do, I can layout the facts on the ground.

People with PD in 2010 and early 2011 should definitely give consideration to PP. The rest can decide based on their personal situation. Having said that here are the things that need to monitored.

i) How committed is USCIS in using up the extra spillover numbers? The only way to know this is to monitor the VB closely and based on the movement maybe we can decide more.
ii) Currently Avg processing time for i140 is close to 6 months. Is it going to decrease/stay the same/increase? Yes, Biden admin may speed up the processing time somewhat, but COVID is still a thing and the sudden influx of i140s for downgrade petitions may slow things down more.
iii) How safe is your job situation? If there are layoffs starting in your firm, then it's always safe to try and PP your case so that you are in the safe zone. If you are laid off after 180 days of filing i485 but your i140 is still pending approval, then it's kind of a grey area. I certainly would not want to find out what happens if the firm revokes your i140 while pending adjudication.

I hope you can make your decision based on some of these factors and how they apply to you.

[Chilli19]

I have biometrics appointment scheduled for Jan19th. Now I need to wait for a reschedule notice from USCIS

[usvisas]

Did nyone receive bio notice in 2021? I haven't seen any across any group, forum or tracker. Hearing that there's some pause since Jan 1st 2021?

[EB2June2010]

My wife and I received our receipt notices in the mail yesterday for I-485 as well as EAD/AP.

Category: EB2-I
Priority Date: June 28th, 2010
Application filed: Oct 26th, 2020
I-485/I-131/I-765 Received Date: Oct 27th, 2020
I-485/I-131/I-765 Notice Date: Jan 11th, 2021

We are still waiting for the notification for our biometrics appointment.

[rabp77]

My case is being processed at NSC whereas my spouse's case is being processed at TSC. None of us received RFE. Is that normal for the cases to be in different service centers?

USCIS tries to merge the cases for family members even if they are filed separately, but its not guaranteed. Personally know a friend, where the principal and derivative application were applied almost 3 months separate, and had fingerprints separately, but the subsequent interview and approval etc happened together. In this case they had the applications initially processed by different service centers, but eventually both were moved to the same service center. So i believe, they will try to merge it. Also you cannot normally say by the case status number where you application is being processed, because cases are often transferred between centers.

[rabp77]

Thank you idliman and vsivarama for your wonderful help. My priority data is 25-aug-2011. does it fall in the category of "close to current"?

If they utilize all or most of the visas spillover, your date should be current in the next 1-2 years. There is also expected to be a reasonable spillover for FY2022. Thats the reason i am optimistic. Here is how this can be estimated: as per last release inventory data, the number of applications were around 1400 per month for india for early 2010 (for eb2). Now that number could have been higher in 2011, and maybe higher for EB3. But assuming its around 2000 per month, and availability for india EB2 /eb3 of around around 30000- 35000. This would mean an advancement of around 18 months this FY, which should put you very close by end of this FY. So one can be optimistic of this happening in the next 1-2 years.

However, please take it with a grain of salt as no one can predict utilization of visa numbers. Also it would help bring more transparency if they start publishing inventory data. You could use whereismyGC for predictions based on more data (which will be better than back of envelop computations above).

Good luck.

[H1b2006]

Guys 4 VB's came out in 2021 Fiscal year and so far had no luck for EB2/EB3 India

with 8 VB's in 2021 fiscal year,

what is the worst outcome can be for EB2/EB3 folks

do you guys think whole 25000 FB spill over visas per eb2 eb3 will be wasted in 2021 year?

In worst case scenario for 2021 with all FB spill over numbers wasted

whats chances of EB1 getting current in coming 8 VB's

once eb1 gets current how many extra numbers from eb1 can be passed on to EB2 per year untill EB1 India gets clogged again?

with 6 months FB numbers not getting used in 2021 Fiscal year, there is 60000 numbers atleast to be spill over to EB2/EB3 in fiscal year 2022

even if FB numbers are wasted this year, EB1 getting current in next 3-4 bulletins and 60000 FB spill over numbers coming to EB2/EB3

what will be FAD movements for EB2/EB3 India in Feb/March/April/May/June/July/Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec?

Om Namah Sivayah

[txsguy]

The "DF" or filing dates are based on internal calculation (DOS/USCIS) on where the "FA" or final action dates will be at the end of that year (Oct 1st to Sep 30th). Based on past history they keep it open only for the first 1 to 3 months to get enough applications to build a buffer.

They should have gotten more fresh applications than they originally calculated / expected (probably EB2 to EB3 downgrades). That's why they moved / keep moving the DF dates. Please note that the Visa Bulletin is done by the State Department. They control the number of GCs that are issued. The honoring of "DF" dates is at the discretion of USCIS. So both departments do their job independently. Ideally they both should be in sync. But it is not practical.

There is a saying inside the beltway. DHS is one of the worst functioning arms of the Govt. and sometimes called a total disaster. Some people think DHS should be shutdown.

I was reading there is no law which says they have to give all the people who have filed with Date of Filing GC's in the same year. It's mostly a guesstimate between DoS and USCIS because if it was law, we would see DoF being set in first three months and then by end of year all the people would have gotten GC's. So, its a guesstimate. That part everyone agrees.

Now coming back to this guesstimate, lawyers are proposing why cant USCIS do Date of Filing very aggressively if its not prevented by law and give benefits of AoS. State Dept can keep giving GC's slowly in their own sweet time.

[moonlight]

txsguy, where did you get some pointers from that lawyers are proposing to issue the EAD based on aggressive DF? I think it would directly hit their revenue streak and they would not like to implement that. However, I may be wrong if the perspective is changing now a days.

[txsguy]

http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2020/11/proposal-for-the-biden-administrationusing-the-dual-date-visa-bulletin-to-allow-the-maximum-number-of-adjustment-of-status-filings.html


Even CATO Institute sent this in its list of proposals. Of course it does not mean administration will/has to do anything but legally they can do and nothing is stopping them from moving the Date of Filing aggressively.
My point being legally there is no limit as to how much date of filing AoS they can take. Only number of GC's are legally bound and numbered/year.

[ak7419]

USCIS tries to merge the cases for family members even if they are filed separately, but its not guaranteed. Personally know a friend, where the principal and derivative application were applied almost 3 months separate, and had fingerprints separately, but the subsequent interview and approval etc happened together. In this case they had the applications initially processed by different service centers, but eventually both were moved to the same service center. So i believe, they will try to merge it. Also you cannot normally say by the case status number where you application is being processed, because cases are often transferred between centers.

Thank you rabp77. Much appreciated!

[idliman]

To all the folks who are new to the Trishanku Status (AOS Pending), make sure that you are aware of the implications before you travel out of USA. It is advisable to travel only with AP. Browse the precautions in the following thread. Good Luck.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...rd-Application

[H1b2006]

To all the folks who are new to the Trishanku Status (AOS Pending), make sure that you are aware of the implications before you travel out of USA. It is advisable to travel only with AP. Browse the precautions in the following thread. Good Luck.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...rd-Application

Any idea on upcoming VB? is the new admin in charge, how do we know if it is old admin or new admin. New Admin will get certain directions from Biden administration on dates movement/inventory updates, when can we see changes

As per trackitt RFE's for EB2 2010 Jan/feb/mar/apr folks mean that EB2 FAD will move to may 2010 if that happens what will be FAD for EB3 folks? can it be Nov 2010(+6months to EB2)